Galaxy: Rudd 58, Turnbull 28

Findings of a Galaxy poll published in today’s News Limited papers from a small sample of 400 (nothing on voting intention):

• Kevin Rudd leads Malcolm Turnbull as preferred leader 58 to 28 per cent. The last federal Galaxy poll in March had Rudd leading Brendan Nelson 69 per cent to 15 per cent.
• Twenty-three per cent of respondents said they would be more likely to vote Liberal with Turnbull as leader than they would have been with Nelson, against 11 per cent less likely.
• Fifty-three per cent believe Turnbull would give the Liberals a better chance at the next election against 35 per cent for Peter Costello.
• Forty-eight per cent of respondents considered Turnbull “arrogant” against 23 per cent for Rudd.
• Fifty-one per cent considered Rudd a “strong leader” against 30 per cent for Turnbull, and 49 per cent thought Rudd “decisive” (surely much the same thing) against 30 per cent for Turnbull.
• Fifty-six per cent of respondents believed Rudd had a “a vision of the future” and 52 per cent thought him “in touch with voters”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

304 comments on “Galaxy: Rudd 58, Turnbull 28”

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  1. The only thing I will say about the Scullin scenario is that communications being what they are today most people I would think don’t see Rudd as the cause of the world’s economic problems. If they did it would be showing up in the polls. Besides, as Aristotle points out the Libs are not seen as the great economic masters now. I’m not convinced people would just naturally put the Libs in under the Scullin scenario.

  2. had a sleep in and haven’t read previous posts yet so apologies if someone has already mentioned this.
    Sky Nooz trying to turn a negative into a positive for Allbull with this headline
    “Malcolm Turnbull has trounced PM Rudd in one new poll” it goes on to say that the topic was arrogance but perceptions and a quick glance at a news headline would give the immpression that it was a PPM poll they were talking about.

  3. After the WorkChoices assault on workers’ pay and conditions – during a boomtime – I think it highly unlikely the Liberals will be given the guernsey during a downtime.

  4. I think those seeing the Scullin governments probelms only in terms of the Great Depression need to look a bit deeper. Certainly the depression played its part in the defeat of the government but it was by no means the only thing. That government had its own set of problems that this one doesn’t have.

  5. GB, the Wall St Crash came a week after Scullin took office. His whole PMship was dominated by it. Since he faced a hostile Senate, a hostile High Court and a hostile Commonwealth Bank board (this was before the RBA was created), he was totally powerless, even if he had had a plan to deal with the Depression, which he didn’t. The only minister with any understanding of Keynesian economics was Theodore, but he was ruined by the Mungana scandal. Scullin had to go to London to beg the City for emergency loans. Then he was forced to agree to the deflationary Premiers’ Plan, and as a result the ALP split into three factions (Lang to the left, Lyons to the right), and in 1931 he was voted out (much to his relief) when Lang’s faction crossed the floor.

  6. Adam, my point exactly. A government with scandal, division on how to proceed. Not exactly a government you could have confidence in in troubled times was it?

  7. It was no more or less competent than any other Australian government. Scullin had considerable financial expertise and Theodore had been a successful premier of Qld. They were simply overwhelmed by events far beyond the control of a government of a small country dependent on agricultural exports and tied umbillically to the City of London. Who coped better? Hoover, MacDonald, Bruning? As for scandal, the Mungana royal commission was dragged out by the conservative Qld government to bring down Theodore. He was never charged and it’s never been proved that he acted corruptly.

  8. It wasn’t just Scullin. During those years, just about every govt was voted out. However, I doubt we’ll have another great depression, as govts are much more pro-active these days – even the current US administration has bailed out companies.

  9. Nothing you have said there takes away from my point. That being that a government with a perception of scandal and division is not exactly a government you could have confidence in in troubled times.
    Add to that my points made at 51 and the “Scullin scenario” is not as clear cut as it seems.

  10. Lyons, Menzies and Howard the best three conservative leaders this country has had.

    Interesting that Lyons was a former Labor man just like Turnbull.
    While the UAP had problems of its own it was still more of a broad church than the current Liberal Party.

  11. Turnbull should take a lesson from Howard & Costello’s experience & stear well clear of this mob.


    MEMBERS of the Exclusive Brethren were actively attempting to donate to John Howard’s re-election campaign last year in a manner that meant the cash injection would not have been disclosed to the public, according to a new book about the secretive Christian sect.

    Fairfax newspapers say a senior Liberal Party source has confirmed in the book Behind The Exclusive Brethren that in the weeks leading up to the November election he was approached by a group of Exclusive Brethren men in a Sydney hotel who offered him a large, anonymous financial donation.

    “They said ‘We are a private group’. I asked them if they voted. It was a testing question. They said they didn’t. It was a very short discussion,” the source said.

    The Exclusive Brethren, whose members are urged not to vote, believe that government is in the hands of God.],23599,24378982-5007133,00.html

    They don’t give up too easily!

  12. [Lyons, Menzies and Howard the best three conservative leaders this country has had.]
    Glen, your definition of best seems to be based on time in office. Menzies I have no difficulty with, nor Lyons (being an ex Labor man) although I know little about him or his government. However I have great difficulty with Howard. Can not agree with you on that at all. He got what he deserved IMHO.

  13. Kev will be going flat chat, so how long before the media switch from Allbulls lead calling him a tourist on an OS jolly, to scare mongering about heart attacks and a too fast pace again?
    “Mr Rudd touches down in New York late Monday (about 1500 AEST Tuesday) and will attend the opening of the UN General Assembly the next morning.

    On Wednesday, he will take part in a Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting on reform of financial regulation, where he will speak about international institutions.

    Mr Rudd will give an address to the UN General Assembly on Thursday, where he will focus on climate change and financial regulation in his presentation.

    He will inform world leaders about Australia’s $100 million plan to develop a new global carbon capture and storage institute.

    The new institute would start out in Australia with the objective of helping meet the G8 commitment to have at least 20 industrial scale-carbon capture and storage projects in operation by 2020.

    His packed itinerary also includes a roundtable discussion on health and education, and another on climate change.

    He will renew his acquaintance with US President George W Bush at a commemoration service for the fallen in Iraq, and will host a meeting of prime ministers and foreign ministers from small-island nations.

    In between official functions, Mr Rudd will meet a variety of world leaders.

    He is expected to have formal bilateral meetings with more than a dozen world leaders, as well as informal meetings with another 10 to 15 leaders.
    Mr Rudd flies out of New York on Thursday evening.”

  14. Gary Bruce @ 61,

    As soon as Nelson rejected Turnbull’s offer of a “front bench” position and saide he preferred to return to the back bench, I thought that he had no intention to just accept it meekly.

    Nelson made it quite clear on numerous occasions that he wanted to lead the Libs to the next election and that he was the best person for the job.

    Ambition is a strange animal. It can cloud ones’ judgement re ones’ abilities and is an unreliable reinforcement of ones’ ego. Classic example=Turnbull.

  15. Though he did consider or did lobby Keating for a Senate spot.

    Still while not a Labor member he did have his leanings.

    Vera can’t Smith do all that? Hell Howard wouldnt have Downer would have done things like that back in the day!

  16. Hi Glen have you been in touch with your unc’e Howard lately, and why not use him on your avatar? lol
    Sending our foreign minister to have 1 on 1 meetings with 20 to 30 world leaders might seem a tad disrespectful don’t you think?

  17. All i know about ‘that’ came from people on pollbludger, so i guess i’ve been had, oh dear.

    No i dont consider Malcolm to be a liar.

    If he has said it was bull butter then butter bull it is.

  18. Vera Rudd in 300 days has spent 50 of them overseas, Unca Howie spent just 18 nights in his first year in Government.

    Turnbull is right to point out we have a Prime Tourist!

  19. [Sending our foreign minister to have 1 on 1 meetings with 20 to 30 world leaders might seem a tad disrespectful don’t you think?]

    The US can get away with that, but not us

  20. [Vera Rudd in 300 days has spent 50 of them overseas, Unca Howie spent just 18 nights in his first year in Government.]

    Howard spent 64 days overseas in 2002, 60 days in 2003, and 65 days in 2005

  21. Adam I knew there would come a day when I would be in violent agreement with Glen. He’s becoming a soft old lefty isn’t he? I alsojust like Glen, consider Talcum could be capable of being loose with the truth.

  22. Vera, the media’s fixation on comparing the number of OS trips by Rudd compared to Howard misses a crutial difference between the two leaders.

    The difference being that Rudd’s trips have all had an underlining agenda of issues that are of benefit both immediate and long term to this country.

    With most of Howard’s trips, this was never apparent to the same degree, in fact, many of them were blatant exercises in kowtowing to powerful leaders in order to try and show him as being a mover and shaker on the world scene and with some influence.

    In this regard he generally failed whereas people can see that Rudd is clearly being accepted by influential leaders as a person of substance that has much to offer and somebody that they can do business with and who’s opinion is worth taking notice of.

  23. The reason Rudd has to spend more time overseas than Howard did is that he has to clean up after Howard’s criminal neglect on issues like climate change, and to reassert Australia’s battered international image following years of Howard “metooism” to the Bush administration.

  24. Glen,

    Don’t feel bad about mentioning Turnbull’s “Labor experiment”.

    The MSM has been putting this idea forward for some time now.

  25. Glen #73…

    [Rudd in 300 days has spent 50 of them overseas, Unca Howie spent just 18 nights in his first year in Government.]

    Glen, please explain why Rudd is bound to copy Howard in every respect, including days spent overseas. Was a law passed in the dying days of the Howard government requiring new governments and Prime Ministers not to deviate from Howard’s Way? If so, please link to it.

    I find the media’s constantly comparing Rudd’s behavior with howard’s behavioral benchmarks to be excruciatingly cringeworthy. Why can’t these people (and their me-too yes men like Glen) get used to the idea that

    (a) Howard was defeated decisively.
    (b) There is no Messiah.
    (c) The last election wasn’t a mistake.
    (d) Government will not be regained via trick questions in QT.
    (e) Rudd and his government are unprecedently popular, gor good reason.
    (f) John Howard is not the arbiter of good taste and judgement in all matters political.

  26. Adam, it was thanks to Howard we have become a genuine middle power and one that is fully engaged in the Asian region. I hardly think Australia’s national image suffered during Howard’s rule.

    Rudd doesnt need to spend all this time overseas, why not let his foreign minister do it? Well that’s because Rudd wants to be Foreign Minister too! He loves traveling more than being at home and dealing with bread and butter issues. But if he wants to Swan about overseas and let Malcolm tear shreads off Julia then that’s ok.

  27. [I hardly think Australia’s national image suffered during Howard’s rule]

    Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha. You should get out more.

  28. [Rudd doesnt need to spend all this time overseas, why not let his foreign minister do it?]

    You think our FM will often get to meet Bush in face to face talks?

  29. [by the way Rudd is going he’ll spend 100 days overseas in a possible second/third term]
    Glen, he may also do the opposite of Howard and not overseas on many occasions the next couple of years. You just don’t know that. Besides who in the hell made Howard the yardstick?
    I’m detecting Glen that you are not defending Malcolm as strongly as you could. Any reason for that?

  30. Oh Glen! “let Malcolm tear shreads off Julia” that’s why i like you, you’re always good for a belly laugh! You’ve made my Sunday you ‘av, thanks lol.

  31. The current Labor government is composed largely of people of the (pre-defection) Lyons type of are in the ALP but are economically conservative.

  32. The Telegraph has an interview with Brenda’s mum saying he may not have given up on the idea of becoming PM. better watch your back there Talcum.

  33. Glen Milne’s take on Rudd’s trip is unusual in that it is a reasonably balanced take on it.

    A number of posters were understandably critical considering their political affiliation but one did really have a telling point. Take note Glen!

    [Around the world with Kevin Rudd]

    [it’s no use pointing to the fact that Howard did less traveling in his first year though he did plenty, there wasn’t a world economy crisis then.]

    And this.

    [He is paid to work and not warm up his chair, enjoying a residence with a harbour view. Very likely, if questioned, he will not say ‘I don’t know’ or ‘I was not informed about it’. Despite the down-turn in the world economy, Mr Rudd and his team have performed above expectations. So far, there is no bull-**** coming from this Federal Labor team.]

    And this.

    [Get real the guys not going on a holiday on the cheap, its called networking , planting the seeds , pressing the flesh, hopefully because of his actions , Australia will reap the benefits.],22049,24377088-5007132,00.html

  34. No 41

    If you ask the average NSW voter if they think the ALP stands for strong public services, I think they’d have a starkly different opinion than the blinkered rubbish that Mr Charlton is promulgating.

  35. [maybe he’s offering his poison pen to the service of the new guy in town.]

    I heard that Milne wanders the corridors of Parliament House every night crying out “is there anyone out there”? “Is there anyone out there”?

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