Turnbull 45, Nelson 41

As most of you would be aware by now, Malcolm Turnbull has won the Liberal leadership after defeating Brendan Nelson 45 votes to 41. Nelson won the post-election vote 45 votes to 42: not sure where the missing vote went (UPDATE: Kevin Andrews was overseas and didn’t vote – hat-tip to Dovif in comments).

Also:

• The latest weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead back at 58-42 after a fortnight at 59-41. Also included are questions on approval of Kevin Rudd, the future of the Coalition and federalism.

• Peter Brent asks what became of the government’s green paper on disclosure, funding and expenditure issues, which was due in July.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has published comments on objections to the redistribution of Western Australian electorates.

• Bryan’s back.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

793 comments on “Turnbull 45, Nelson 41”

Comments Page 2 of 16
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  1. [you will need to include about 70 of the ALP seats on the same list.]

    I conceded that.

    Your argument is just going around in circles. Preferences make a difference. That is the nature of our 2PP system.

    The point I was making was that Maxine and everyone else who won a seat at the election, did it under our current electoral system. Fairly and squarely.

  4. [Online Poll in the Oz. Should be worth following over the next 12 hours or so.]

    Why? Online polls are about as useful as my mother-in-law

  6. After poor old malcom fails to make any inroads to the alp’s lead in the opinion polls who is next? Abbott, bishop, they may as well give ironbar tuckey a go for all the good it will do them.

  11. Interesting day! trust the Australian media to talk up the 2% fall on the ASX as a plummet when CNBC is reported that we have come out of today as the best performer within the Asian region in terms of size of falls.

    Todays Question was Interesting for last night I raised several possible questions and they were asked not but the Opposition but by members of the Government and the responses from PM Rudd and Wayne Swan were well put.

    The Government comes out of today looking soild, Malcolm Turnbull now needs to show what he is made off, Costellos performance at the NPC was as per-normal for him, he has one thing going for him and that is a good sense of humour, I wasn’t impressed that he couldn’t or wouldn’t confront the issue of why he never took Howard on.

  13. One thing the Libs need to do is improve their media management, Talcum should lay down the law and say to his front bench – “You talk about your portfolio responsibilities” – off topic and you will be joining Hammock No1 and Hammock No2 on the backbench.

  14. [Why? Online polls are about as useful as my mother-in-law]

    Dario, you seem a bit prickly today. Lighten up, the world is not coming to an end soon. I hope?

    Of course these Polls can be an object of ridicule, but they can also be a source of what some segments are thinking and can also be amusing.

  15. Scopio

    From the view of the “current” right hand side of Australian politics, 1 vote on the Green = 1 vote for the ALP

    ALP keep moving to the right and the Green keep taking votes from the ALP Left. the Green is now the left hand wing of the ALP. But the ALP knows that the Greens will never vote against them, so the Green’s agenda will never be the ALP’s agenda, no matter how far the ALP moves.

    Soon the ALP might be further right than the Turnbull Liberals and the Greens might just blindly follow them to the right.

    The issue is not with the ALP, they are doing what is in their best interest. The question to the Green is that how do they get their agenda met? If they continue to be the left wing of the ALP, somewhere down the road, people will see that and find another potest party or another balance of power party.

    And if they do not maintain their independance – ie follows a inept ALP government, for example in NSW, then people will start losing interest in them or see them as part of the ALP.

    A political power only have power if they can do things their constituency wants, by being tied to the ALP, the greens cannot get that. Because the ALP knows the Greens won’t vote with anyone else

    The WA National party have real power, because they can threaten to block both Liberal and ALP legislations and they can do something for their constituency. The Democrats did the same

    The Greens will only be able to do that, if they break the link with the ALP. Whether they are just a faze depends on that

  17. [Dario, you seem a bit prickly today. Lighten up, the world is not coming to an end soon. I hope? ]

    I thought I was prickly every day! 😉

  18. 65 “The WA National party have real power, because they can threaten to block both Liberal and ALP legislations and they can do something for their constituency.”

    dovif, you crack me up with your conservative wit. Threats don’t mean a thing in politics as you well know, the Nationals will vote against the Liberals the day after hell freezes over and the day following that the Nats can do something for their constituency. Don’t hold your breath.

  19. dovif,

    I have been involved in the Labour movement for a long time and I think you will find that an awful lot of the older Members of the Greens originally came from the Socialist Left of the ALP.

    I know many of them and stand beside them at polling booths and it would be an absolute impossibility for them to direct any support to the Libs.

    The younger Greens however, aren’t as rusted on to green or environmental issues and see no problem with directing preferences to the Libs. ie WA & Qld and even a number of Labor & Coalition seats in the last Federal election where the preference flows to Labor were well under the average for all electorates.

  20. Wow the ASX 200 fell by 1.5% If Talcum thinks this will be of concern to “Working Families – Pensioners and Carers” he has rock in his head.

    Oil down to $94 a barrel, so do we still need the 5c excise reduction?

  21. I find the whole 2PP issue interesting. It is pretty clear that the ALP do rely on preferences from Green voters. If we had a first past the post system instead, the ALP would have missed out on 9 seats last time around (Bennelong; Page; Robertson; Corangamite; Deakin; Hasluck; Bass; Braddon and Solomon). Its particualrly the case in Bass, where the ALP was well behind on primaries but the Greens vote is huge.

    We’d then have a hung parliament and the truly nightmarish scenario of Bob Katter holding the balance of power.

    I heart 2PP.

  22. (Ruawake @ 21 cracked me up)

    All this movement in the Liberal Party suggests a lot of senior MPs sense they’re a lot closer to being PM now than they were 1-2 years ago. Can anyone really blame them?

  23. [The younger Greens however, aren’t as rusted on to green or environmental issues and see no problem with directing preferences to the Libs. ie WA & Qld and even a number of Labor & Coalition seats in the last Federal election where the preference flows to Labor were well under the average for all electorates.]

    With Climate Change coming of age as an issue and the Libs all over the place on it, I think you may see the younger Greens begin to follow their more senior counterparts.

  24. [If we had a first past the post system instead]

    If we had a first past the post system you might find that plenty of Greens voters would not vote Green knowing that their preference would not flow to Labor. By the way, did the Libs/Nats win any seats as a result of prefs where they did not lead the ALP on primaries?

  25. The electoral system we have is what it is, it will not change in the foreseeable future. So get used to it.

    Hammock No1’s comments today are probably correct, the best way to maximise the conservative vote is to run 3 cornered contests – except where optional preferential voting applies.

  26. If the Libs are looking to improve their media management it’d help if the leadership group was reading from the same songbook – we have Malcolm attacking Rudd’s ‘policy recklessness’ while his deputy is harping on about Rudd being ‘all talk and no action’. Well, what’s it gonna be then? (Yeah, I know that ‘recklessness’ could refer to inaction, but that’s not how it comes across. And anyway, it wouldn’t surprise if many voters are sick and tired of politicians with their confected rage/ hairy chest beating (sorry Julie) and are actually relieved that the studious one is quietly going about his job waiting for the reports of his thousand and one expert committees before jumping in at the deep end.)

  27. [I have been involved in the Labour movement for a long time and I think you will find that an awful lot of the older Members of the Greens originally came from the Socialist Left of the ALP.

    I know many of them and stand beside them at polling booths and it would be an absolute impossibility for them to direct any support to the Libs.]

    A lot of us in Tasmania came from the United Tasmania Group – Google it. And you’re correct. Even though I don’t belong to any party now – and never will again – I can’t see myself encouraging anyone to preference Liberal, normally.

    But it always disappoints me to see people say they are lifelong and rusted-on Lib or Lab voters. It implies they aren’t willing to think. I did once vote Lib in Tasmania, and they lost.

  28. [you may see the younger Greens begin to follow their more senior counterparts.]

    I hope that you are right about that but they didn’t seem to think things through too much in WA the other day.

    Greens preferences have resulted in a shambolic coalition of sorts in WA which has opened the door to uranium mining there now.

    I see so many people praise the wonders of nuclear power and the benefits to Australia from uranium mining but they should talk to some of the people who have been directly involved in the industry.

    I met a gentleman recently who worked at Mary Kathleen for a number of years. He has had treatment three times for various cancers and currently has about 100 tumors inside his body. Most of his workmates are deceased. Cancer!

    How can they support an industry such as this and expose their fellow Australians to such a terrible fate.

  29. I am aware that in Liberal heartland seats like Kooyong that many childern of Liberal supporters are moving towards the Green because of Climate change and the position the Greens have taken on several policy areas these people may overtime return to their roots as Liberal supporters which is why the ALP will struggle to win seats like Kooyong, Higgins and Wentworth!

    While I have a question mark over Malcolm Turnbulls ability as a campaigner I’m of the view that this might be the best thing the Liberal Party have done.

    While my money is still on Rudd winning a second term, I’m not so sure he will radically increase he margin unless the Liberal Party continue to carry on.

    The next election will be about

    Economy & Climate Change

  30. I wonder if the FPP system is part of what makes the US more conservative than Australia. You could imagine an unaided ALP having to shift to the right in order to compete in situations such as Grant 71’s.

    Meanwhile, lap one of the velodrome sprint is near complete and Nelson has forced Turnbull to reclaim the lead. It’s all strategy from here on in. Who will be the first to make a move?

  31. Quite so, Dario @ 74. How many of the people who voted Greens in Bennelong would have done so if it meant throwing away a chance to defeat Howard? Would the Greens even have run? Note how the term “tactical voting” has entered the British lexicon, but not ours.

  32. One thing about Peter Costello talking about the Victorian experiance of three cornered contest helping the Liberals, and I’m happy to hear Adam’s view but I’m sure on of the factors behind the ALP winning the 1988 State election was that there were several three cornered contest.

    I know Sir Henry Bolte won many elections without a joint Liberal-National party ticket, historically in Victoria the National Party have not always gone with the Liberal or before that the United Australian Party

    In 1935 after the UAP won the election they required Country Party support but Albert Dunstain choose to approach the ALP and made himself preimer a position he held for seven years.

  33. Labor in WA might get a better and fairer coverage in their one and only daily.

    [KERRY Stokes has won his long battle for a seat on the board of West Australian Newspapers.

    WAN, publisher of The West Australian daily newspaper, said yesterday it had invited Mr Stokes, executive chairman of the Seven Network, and his lieutenant Peter Gammell to join the board, expanding it from six to eight directors. ]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24354321-601,00.html

  35. Generally speaking the TPR system only changes a handful of seats for while many seats go to preferences usually the primary vote leader goes on to win.

  36. Re Scorpio @ 78:

    [Greens preferences have resulted in a shambolic coalition of sorts in WA which has opened the door to uranium mining there now.]

    How do you figure Greens preferences have caused this?????

  37. “Tactical voting” – Queensland has moved way past there with Jeff Seeney, Member for Callide producing “tactical lying” to swing voters his way.

    [For two elections in a row Labor preferences have saved Jeff Seeney, now Deputy Opposition Leader and holder of numerous shadow portfolios, in some of the strongest One Nation territory in the state. Not that he has appeared notably grateful – in February 2002 he falsely accused the Premier of granting a $25 million incentive package to Berri because the company had links with his brother Arthur, without going through his party’s channels for clearing smears in advance. He was later forced to admit this was a “tactical lie” when the links were disproved, but refused to apologise and broadened the attack to include another company. Paul Reynolds from the University of Queensland told local ABC radio that this was to show off his hairy chest for the edification of “rabble rousers” in the electorate.]

    http://www.pollbludger.com/qld2006/qld2006.htm

  38. luke,

    Have a look at the seats that the Libs won with the help of Green preferences.

    They didn’t preference Labor in every seat they ran in.

    They only needed to win two on Green preferences to enable the current arrangement to eventuate.

  40. [Labor in WA might get a better and fairer coverage in their one and only daily.]

    As I mentioned in the WA THread, it seems The West are now aiming their guns at The Nationals for threatening to scuttle City Based projects and promises by the Libs in favour of their Royalties for Regions policy.

    I predict the West will blame Brendon Grylls and The Nationals for everything under the sun if anything goes wrong.

  42. [DEPUTY Liberal leader Julie Bishop has emerged as a leading candidate to seize the vacant shadow treasury portfolio.

    Ms Bishop, who is believed to have backed Malcolm Turnbull in today’s ballot ahead of the existing leader Brendan Nelson, could cite the right of the deputy to choose a portfolio to claim the post. ]

    This could be interesting. Swan will have to watch out that he doesn’t get sent to the “naughty corner”.

    I bet Nelson is grateful he had such a loyal deputy.

    [Mr Abbott is understood to have told colleagues that he wants to be “fully in harness” in the Turnbull era. ]

    A monastic “jock strap” I presume. Turnbull would want to keep a close eye on Abbott during his tenure too.

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24355512-601,00.html

  43. Scorpio,

    The Greens did not preference the Libs above the ALP in any seats in this State Election.

    The Greens did go “open” preferences in Pilbara, Kimberley and Cockburn all of which went to the ALP. The only other preference decision to cause angst among ALP supporters was Kwinana which went to the ALP anyway.

    If what you mean is that voters who voted for the Greens first did not always follow the preference recommendation on the Greens HTV … we can hardly be held responsible for that!

  44. Hurray for Julie, if all the reports are true….
    Nelson didnt consult Julie on the leadership vote either, i guess he didnt trust her. It really was a hail mary pass and it didnt work.

    I heart 1 past the post! No more small single issue groups deciding election outcomes.

    Tuckey last night was brilliant though you had to admit it….’that’s my business, what’s ya next question’!

  45. [It was unusual that she did not take the treasury portfolio after the election, deferring to what was regarded as Mr Turnbull’s special qualities.

    She indicated her interest at the time but ultimately accepted a super portfolio, including the key issue of industrial relations.

    Her supporters are pushing her candidacy for the treasury post tonight and she could secure it as a reward for failing to hit the phones for Dr Nelson, who praised her as an excellent deputy at a press conference today.]

    Looks like after the close ballot last year for the leadership, that she kept her options open for a Turnbull ascendancy.

    Seems quite keen to dodge the IR portfolio. I wonder why?

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24355512-601,00.html

  47. [Robin Chapple elected for the Greens in Mining and Pastoral.]

    That’s a good pay-off for all those lovely Green preferences. Can’t see how he or she can stave off the uranium mining though?

  48. luke

    Who cares, WA has 9.9% of the population and 14% of the nations GSP. They only need another $200 billion per year to catch NSW.

    I am sick of hearing that WA is the engine room of the Oz economy, it is bull butter.

    Or maybe GSP per capita is the favoured measure – except the ACT and NT are a squillion miles ahead.

    WA the state of irrelevance. 🙂 😉

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