Turnbull 45, Nelson 41

As most of you would be aware by now, Malcolm Turnbull has won the Liberal leadership after defeating Brendan Nelson 45 votes to 41. Nelson won the post-election vote 45 votes to 42: not sure where the missing vote went (UPDATE: Kevin Andrews was overseas and didn’t vote – hat-tip to Dovif in comments).


• The latest weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead back at 58-42 after a fortnight at 59-41. Also included are questions on approval of Kevin Rudd, the future of the Coalition and federalism.

Peter Brent asks what became of the government’s green paper on disclosure, funding and expenditure issues, which was due in July.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has published comments on objections to the redistribution of Western Australian electorates.

Bryan’s back.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

793 comments on “Turnbull 45, Nelson 41”

Comments Page 15 of 16
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  1. The price you pay when you don’t have control of the senate. I’d prefer that situation than the one we had previously, where the senate was simply a rubber stamp.

  2. No 702

    My “mob” did bring it in, but it is a fundamentally stupid tax. It fails all the guidelines of a good tax; namely: efficiency, broadly-based and fair.

  3. No 710

    Comment 84 is hilarious:

    [Oral sex is the “new black”? Why not combine them both! And it is well recognised that black men are more well endowed ladies, so it can be quite the mouthful! Perhaps Emma and Cheryl would like to come experience my husband……’]

  4. Comment 97 is not bad either.

    [Well BLOW ME DOWN!!! Who would have thought? To Fed Up of Perth – man you lucked out!!! You got comment number 69 on this article. You da man!!!]

  5. ok GP@715, i’ll bite since that seems to be what floats your boat.

    First of all i am wondering if you read the speech or the Oz’s article on the speech?

    As a Union member and someone who has been involved in workplace level negotiations for a number of years (to the point of having drafted a few of the significant clauses in our agreements ) i can tell you that what Julia G outlined today is not SerfChoices Lite. However, i will admit to being worried after reading the Oz article, so i looked up the speed and read the whole thing. Not so worried now.

    I had to negotiate 1 agreement at my workplace under SerfChoices and before that had to deal with the consequences of Coward and his lot imposing special IR and funding conditions on my industry. There was nothing about productivity or good workplace relations in that. It was all directed to attack the people at grass roots level, who actually do the work, and reduce their pay, conditions and job security. Of course at the same time, the administrators were free to VASTLY increase their take, which they did.

    Having read Julia G’s speech, i see a system that i can work with and within, and actually use to get back some of what was lost under Howard and his bunch of Fascists. It’ll take time, but it will be do-able. I also see some interesting politics here in that there seems (to me) to be some areas (like the Low Paid Stream Multi Employer Bargaining) that are obvious points for the Greens/FF/Xenophon to jump in with positive, employee friendly ammendments in the Senate, and have them accepted. Gives them relevance, profile and these major bills get through largely intact.

    Of course it will all come down to how the actual bills are drafted, but using this disparaging terminology of “WorkChoices Lite” to describe what has been proposed so far is not appropriate, accurate, or even particularly witty.

  6. Ms Julie Bishop to be appointed Shadow Treasurer spokesperson for the Liberal Party.

    Congratulations to Ms Bishop, on becoming the first woman on either side of politics to take up either shadow treasurer or treasurer in Government.


    “MALCOLM Turnbull will appoint Julie Bishop as his Treasury spokeswoman in a further signal that the new Opposition Leader plans to build his bid to oust Kevin Rudd on the issue of economic credibility.”

    The rooster will be shaking in his boots.
    Off to the naughty corner Swanny!

  7. Ms Mesmer as shadow treasurer, why not, the only other real contender has a first class honours degree in economics.

    Mesmerelda has given up on Julia Gillard. 🙂

  8. Reported this morning, “Peter Costello’s Memoirs” are already “bargin bin specials” and have been reduced in price from $55 to $30.

    Three days! Must set some sort of record surely????

    Shows just how much the electorate thinks of him. The Polls were right. They don’t care. He might get the message now, but somehow I don’t think he will.

  9. GP @ 715,

    As a Union Member all my working life and as a Delegate and Union Official in two Unions that covered workers in areas that were vulnerable to exploitation, unfair treatment by Employers and were relatively poorly paid, I am not impressed at all.

    The Union movement could justly feel that they have been sold out by their Political Wing and that Labor has strongly favoured Employers & Business with this Legislation. The recently elected ex-union Officials have certainly quickly forgotten who they used to work on behalf of.

    All that nonsense spruked by the Liberals and their supporters prior to the election about Labor being controlled by, and being beholding to the Unions, especially after the tremendous support offered during the campaign has been shot down in flames and will be seen for the ridiculous nonsense that it always was.

  10. Scorpio @ 722 –

    [Three days! Must set some sort of record surely????]

    Costello must still be spitting chips that his preferred leader called a spill for the very day the book was to be flogged at the Press Club ensuring it was only a footnote to the articles about Turnbull’s win.

    Pity about all the trees that have died in vain to boost Smirk’s giant ego! 🙁

  11. Workchoice and Workchoice lite has one aim

    To reduce inflation

    To ensure that people do not get pay rise without efficiency improvement, because that would just cause inflation and no rise in real wages

    If Rudd remove workchoice, Australia’s economy will go into recession. Both he and Howard knows that, Rudd just tried to scored as many political point as he could. Rudd’s wife uses individual contracts, his wife is in business, so he knows what Workchoice means to the economy, he just had most of the Left fooled

  12. MayoFeral,

    They will probably be down to $10 in another three days.

    What a slap across the face for Mr Smirk. His monumental ego will surely take a hit from this.

    I think her thought the crowds would be jostling each other to get in line to buy his literary masterpiece. He should have done a “Latham” and tipped the trash can up and exposed the reality of the Howard years.

    I bet Howard is not so kind to him.

  13. dovif @ 725,

    [If Rudd remove workchoice, Australia’s economy will go into recession. Both he and Howard knows that]


    Sorry, dovif, but Howard is no longer on the scene and workchoices is the main reason.

    Also, productivity was actually decling under Howard’s IR Policies, especially after the introduction of workchoices.

  14. “If Rudd remove workchoice, Australia’s economy will go into recession. Both he and Howard knows that”

    No. The economy did fine before SerfChoices, and would do fine without it. It actually arguable that we did better on a productivity basis pre-WC.

    As far as the new legislation goes, I can well understand people who want the Govt to go further. I think they are actually going about as far as they can and get something through the Senate. The problem here is that even if we dont like the Government position on IR the alternative Government’s position is one that is MUCH more extreme.

    Upshot of all this should probably be some increased support for the Greens from the Unions. We arent all in the CFMEU and there are a lot of members who have Green leanings anyway. Unions can take advantage of the current situation to lobby the minors to modify the ALP’s proposals. Thats where we meed to be campaigning at the moment, and doing it at ground level.

    Look, its not the ideal situation as far as Unionists in this country are concered, but i think what JG outlined yesterday is a lot more workable than WC for all concerned. And, the fight never really ends does it? Just morphs into something different with different political players rising and fallingover time, and helps keep people ready for if the rabid right eventually regain their hold in Canberra.

  15. Books written about the conservatives never sell well in Australia, the biographies of Howard were fizzers. How soon before Smirky’s memoirs are reduced to $5?

  16. Scorpio

    Where did you get the “figures” from, the ABS figures disagrees with you.

    Workchoice is still around, there is a lite version of it under Rudd, he has renamed work place agreement, just fiddle with unfair dismissal laws

  17. Given Andrews’ nod would have been given to Nelson, then just 3 from 45 last November switched camp on Tuesday.
    Not the most convincing start for Turnbull – and certainly not the end of the matter, I’d say, despite the best efforts from the cheer squads to give the impression of a new, united, forward looking and devestatingly unstoppable Opposition.
    But wait… all of Nelson’s musings – 5% excise cut/alcopop/luxury car tax/fuelwatch/carbon trading position etc, etc – well – there all staying!!!
    Seems like the vanquished 41 out of 86 are still making the puppet dance.

  18. [the ABS figures disagrees with you.]

    dovif, can you provide the ABS link? I have the info bookmarked somewhere but have now so many links there, I am having difficulty in finding it and am having difficulty accessing the ABS link to the Labour Productivity statistics for the past 12 years.

    Agree with your second comment.

  19. Scorpio and Aussieguru01

    Diogenes Laertius isn’t actually my Diogenes, although he was my biographer. My one is Diogenes of Sinope, the infamous Cynic.


    A psychiatry professor told me that there were only ever three real genius’s; Jesus, Buddha and Alexander the Great. Alexander was the allegedly the first person to be tube fed into his stomach. When he was too depressed to eat (he was manic-depressive) they chewed his food up for him and fed him through a series of straws.

  20. Diogenes,

    That’s one way to cure depression. You’d want to be pretty trusting of those doing the chewing.

    Thanks for that info. Will have to Google “your” Diogenes.

  21. This isn’t WC lite.

    “Compulsory arbitration will not be a feature of good faith bargaining. Arbitration will be limited to exceptional circumstances only – where industrial action is causing a threat to safety or health, a threat to the economy, or significant harm to the parties.”

    So, prove there is significant harm being done and there will be arbitration. Thats a win.

    “Protected industrial action will be allowed in the course of bargaining, in accordance with strict rules, including a secret ballot of employees and three days’ notice of intention to take the action. But unprotected industrial action will not be tolerated under any circumstances.”

    Considering that at the moment it takes 6-8 weeks to run a ballot this could be a good win. Depends on the rules for a ballot that they set, but if the process is streamlined it may make it much easier for Union members to take industrial action.

    “But where dismissal is justified the Code simply requires the employer to:

    * give the employee a warning, based on a reason that validly relates to the employee’s conduct or capacity to do the job; and
    * provide a reasonable opportunity for the employee to improve his or her performance.”

    The Australian article focused on the process, not that the sacking still has to be justified. I find that annoying but typical of that mob.

    Besides, there is room here for the Senate minors to amend in ways that make it better for the unions and their members. ALP could legitimately cave to some of those even if business lobby spits the dummy. Turnbull and Bishop can rant and rave all they like but i reckon this lot will go through with the ALP substantially getting their way, the Senate Minors getting lots of profile out of it, the countries Union members and other workers getting a better deal than they have now, and the Libs left looking like gits.

  22. Hrm, apparently Hockey is being considered for the shadow IR job, which seems to me to be a spectacularly poor choice. Surely they should be trying to avoid association with the workchoices backlash, and putting the same minister back in charge of it is just asking for trouble isn’t it? At least it’s not Kevin Andrews I guess 🙂

  23. Oh Dear Spam Inbox what a circus it has all become.

    [Immediately after Mr Murphy had spoken, the National Party MP for Riverina – Kay Hull – added her own complaint, describing the “quality, presentation and availability of food” as inadequate.

    Mr Hockey approached Ms Hull in the chamber to reprimand her, but witnesses said Ms Hull told him to “f— off”.]

  24. Regarding the missing vote in the Liberal leadship ballot. Correct me if I’m wrong but I have three other theories.

    (1) David Tollner, former member for Solomon was allowed to vote in the November ballot before the final count gave the seat to Labor. Therefore he couldn’t vote this time (and in fairness, shouldn’t have been able to vote last time).

    (2) The Senators elected in 2007 didn’t take their seats until 1 July 2008. Therefore the old class of Senators voted in 2007 with the new class voting in September 2008. The Liberals had 17 Senators voting at the November 2007 ballot, but only 16 in September 2008 (Grant Chapman of SA lost his seat).

    (3) I remember reports of one Sen. Judith Troeth missing the ballot in November 2007but presumably made in September 2008… I vaguely remember details of her trying to bolt the corridors of parliament but was too late … I could google this to confirm but can’t be bothered right now.

    If theories (2) and (3) are correct, then they cancel each other out, as there were an equal number of Senators voting in both ballots. Therefore that leaves (1) remaning, which explains the net loss of one vote since the two ballots.

  25. addendum to my comment earlier, the Liberals had 37 Senators voting in November 2007 to 36 in September 2008. I was only counting one class of Senators and forgot to add on the ones who weren’t up for re-election in 2007.

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