Liberal leadership: round two

Brendan Nelson has thrown the Liberal leadership open to a party room vote tomorrow morning. A source quoted by the ABC calls the move a “suicide mission” and “predicts Malcolm Turnbull has the numbers to take the leadership”. Nelson defeated Turnbull in the first round five days after the November 24 election by 45 votes to 42.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

520 comments on “Liberal leadership: round two”

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  1. Pedro! you may well be right for the timing does seem suss for the Economy is looking gloomy and its about now you want to be focusing on Swan so this does potentiall take the liberal Party off message for at least the next 48 hours just as the crap is about to hit the Walls Street fan.

  2. Nelson / Turnbull – one not supported by the people (i.e. Mr 16%) the other hated by the party. Interesting contest.

    I’m sure Turnbull would’ve liked to have another 6 to 12 months but they’d be dumb to pass him over again tomorrow. If they do, it’ll be very interesting to see if Nelson sends him to the back bench.

    Either way, with a couple of states going liberal – to break down the wall to wall Labor stuff people couldn’t live with – and the federal liberal party in a mess Rudd should win in 2010 and then hand over to Julia – happy days 🙂

  3. I bet Costello is positively spewing after tonights development.
    This will take away any chance he had to have the spotlight focused on his book release. His publishers are probably not too happy either.

  4. No 306

    I have little sympathy for his book and his public backstabbing ways.

    I don’t doubt his talent, but for goodness sake he really needs to get a grip and stop damaging the party through his hubristic self-indulgence.

  5. I love this!

    Nelson wins and they have Mr Small % for the foreseable future, but almost certainly another leadership challenge before the next election.

    Turnbull wins and they have a yet another twerp up front with no substance and less credibility. Saw him on Q&A a couple of weeks ago up against Penny Wong. There was just no comparison. Wong looking straight at the people who had asked the questions even when she knew they didnt like her answers, being concise and to the point. Turnbull dithering, stuoid grin and always looking to the cameras. Besides he was the stupid prat who was so eager to be in Howards pocket that he scupperd the republic.

    Will Cossie have a go?? Who cares.

    Any way it goes its good for the ALP.

  6. Just got an inside word that Christopher Pyne is busy on the phone. Not sure who he is supporting, however I do know that he is prepared to back whoever can get him out of the horrible Shadow Ministry for Border Protection and Justice and into somethingmore significant. He is even suggesting that if the deputy spot is open that he will have another tilt at it…. Should be a fun day tomorrow.

  7. [I don’t doubt his talent, but for goodness sake he really needs to get a grip and stop damaging the party through his hubristic self-indulgence.]

    The only way he could do that was if he resigned from parliament.

  8. Dow Jones indices are off about 2.5%. After 20 minutes trading.

    Something tells me that when historians write the story of this week, the WA election and the Lib leadership vote are not going to be the key items.

  9. Costello has just climbed back into his hammock. The droning background noise in the parliamentary chamber is just like a lullaby to him. He gets such a sound sleep each day that he is in great shape for his daily jog over the roof.

  10. Whoever it is may well be leader at the next election, Mr X and Greens saying they’ll block bills this week, Fielding doing the same last sitting, a DD could be sooner than we think.

  11. Oh, and the company that is buying Merrill Lynch has said that Merrill Lynch is “more likely than not” to survive.

    Now there’s a ringing endorsement of one of the world’s largest financial institutions!

  12. I don’t suppose my Commonwealth Bank shares are going to look too healthy tomorrow either. I knew I should have sold them when they hit $63.

  13. I don’t think Labor would be silly enough to pass on their excess to Fielding next time. The Greens making waves in the Senate might cost them too.

  14. Wont a DD get Fielding in for another 6 years?

    A double dissolution also suits the interests of all the smaller players in the Senate. It would certainly suit Fielding, who has almost no chance of holding his seat otherwise. It wouldn’t hurt Xenophon at all, and could even give him a chance of getting a running mate in with him, it would almost certainly increase the Greens’ overall numbers. The Greens would be at risk of losing one of their two WA Senators, but would more than make up for that with gains in other states, including gaining their first ever Senators in Queensland and Victoria

    http://andrewbartlett.com/?p=7117

  15. Scorpio, just remember the dividend you get i sure do!

    Plus what goes down must come up again espeically with the blue chips.
    Cheer up old chap!

  16. No 320

    Yes, what an absolute disaster the banking sector in the United States is. How banks worth hundreds of billions can simply vanish is astounding. I am glad that the US Government has chosen not to bale out the bank at this stage – investors must learn from their obscene mistakes.

  17. Glen, I’ve been putting my dividends back into shares so I hope you are right about a comeback other wise I may have been better taking the cash.
    Probabloy should put a few dollars on Turnbull though and pick up some of my losses!

  18. Dyno! I argee I’ve just been looking at the Wall Street Journal and reading that Leyman Brothers is filing chaptor 11 and Merrill Lynch have been sold to the Bank of America, this is a watershed moment in the Sub-primal crisis and the alternative government is having a leadership ballot! speaks volums about where the Liberal Party are at.

  19. I think the rule is now – don’t go to an election with when the Opposition have just got themselves a new leader. Putting Turnbull in may get them a bounce in the polls making it less likely Rudd would go looking for a DD and, thus allow the LNP to continue to make trouble in the Senate.

  20. mexicanbeemer, Costello said on the weekend that there was no problems with the economy etc last year. It’s only since Rudd took over that things have slipped so we know who to blame don’t we?

  21. scorpio remember it’s only a paper loss, and with a DRP (i also have this), you increase your wealth overtime and your portfolio.

    I suspect it will be close regardless, but Turnbull should have the edge.

  22. Never been to that Island Scorpio, but from what I’ve heard it sounds like a scary place so Ron could be in big trouble if he’s stranded there. Better call out the Coast Guard!

  23. All those hyping the falls on Wall St need to calm down.

    The market is may have fallen 300-odd points, but that’s taken it to about 1% lower than it was a week ago, to levels not seen since July 2008. Even a small bounce later today or tomorrow means the market will be at historic three day lows. Horrors!!

  24. I’m aware that the funtermentals of the Australian Government are sound and I don’t expect us to have a recession within this financial year.

    The thing is the American Economy is in a very ill state and since we don’t live in a bubble there will be come impact.

    On a side note I was thinking about the NAB’s failed homeside business a few years ago and I was thinking that might turn out to be the best failed business in Australias banking history for it lead to the NAB reducing its involment in the American Mortgage market.

  25. Glen, it was still depressing to see many thousands wiped off in little more than a fortnight though.

    A bit like my rollover. I watched it loose 8 grand a year for three years and they still had the hide to charge me over $800 per year management fee. I think I have done about 5 or 6 grand this year now too.

    It is slightly depressing. If the whole system collapses then we are all in trouble. I hope the “Future Fund” doesn’t disappear too. Won’t do Costello & Howard’s legacy much good.

  26. OMG mexicanbeemer – one US bank goes into chapter 11 and oppositon parties all over the world need to stop all normal activities and await, presumably with bated breath, for any subsequent events?
    Grow up.

  27. There is one positive about the falling market, my former employer whom I wrote about here last year is having its bottom line hammered everytime the market falls so at least that is good

  28. {Better call out the Coast Guard!}

    Vera, whatever happened to that? I thought that was one of Beasley’s policies that Rudd kept. A $500m Coastguard to be established.

    As for the Island, I haven’t been there either. The early reports back from it were enough to scare me off from wanting to visit.

  29. scorpio dont worry if it makes you feel better i had money in Colonial First State for about 6 years with 0 return actually i think i lost money.

    How about a new vote winner for either side of politics. Stopping the Banks from charging us more to make up for their own losses?

  30. johnpkramer,

    Agree it’s not really the market falls that are the issue – they’re just the symptom.

    Here’s the issue:
    – at the start of this year there were five major investment banks. Now there are two (in effect, Merrill Lynch having been swallowed up as well as Bear Stearns and Lehman disappearing)
    – the world’s largest (or second largest, depending how you measure it) insurance company, AIG, announced on the weekend that it needs US$40bn as a “bridging loan”
    – the Chinese are now cutting interest rates which is the surest sign they are worried about recession
    – etc.

    What is really scary is we have no idea when all this bad news is going to end.

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