Brendan Nelson has thrown the Liberal leadership open to a party room vote tomorrow morning. A source quoted by the ABC calls the move a “suicide mission” and “predicts Malcolm Turnbull has the numbers to take the leadership”. Nelson defeated Turnbull in the first round five days after the November 24 election by 45 votes to 42.
245 yeah, but they seemed to suggest someone else would push it, not Nelson.
Dario! the big word in that last post is “MAY” for if Rudd can sell the policy in an honest and open manner and if Interest Rates come down he should be fine, the question for the Liberals is can they get their act together and in the currant climate they could do so but recent political history shows the ALP should be returned, one other point while we in here are across the issues and are mostly fixed in voting intend but out their in Voterland they go by how things appear and sometimes what appears right to those across the issues can go down like a lead balloon in voterland.
AM this morning certaily didn’t see it coming:
http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2008/s2364267.htm
“A leadership spill is looking increasingly unlikely this week, with senior Liberals insisting the Opposition leader be given more time to prove himself.”
Glen, if I was Turnbull, I wouldn’t ring anybody. I would wait to see who rings me, he can always withdraw… and wait
Generic Person said:
A difference, yes, but Howard could have had a transition to Costello and left on a high. He went right to the end. You can characterise the legislation however which way you dishonestly want, but Howard had courage.
I say:
Your memory is faulty, Generic Person. Even Kim Beazley had a consistently higher PM rating than Costello. That’s the real reason Howard wouldn’t hand over power (not that he could, because the Libs don’t do leader succession – it goes to a vote).
If Howard could have theoretically handed the PMship to Costello , they would have lost the 2007 election in an even bigger way. That’s why Howard stayed on – he had no choice. During his tenure, Howard was so insecure he head-kicked all potential rivals off the ladder and ensured he was only surrounded by sycophantic yes-men – the Liberals of 2008.
Get your facts straight, non-generic person!
No 250
Yes I think Turnbull will win. It is unfortunate that I disagree with his approach to reconciliation and the republic, but I will live with that for now for the sake of some stability.
SNIP: Poor quality comment deleted – The Management.
Had the Liberals handed the Pm’ship to Costello in 2006 and never come up with that stupid policy (Workchoices) they would have won in a landslide but once Rudd become leader and the Liberals stayed with Howard and they come up with Workchoices and started playing Rudd otherthan running the country they were gone.
GP your opinion mirrors my own.
Nelson and his supporters seem to be remarkably confident of victory – we’ll see what happens tomorrow! I think the ALP would be hoping Brenda stays in the top job.
I’ll argue again that too many in the Liberal Party hate Turnball, they’d support Attila The Hun instead LOL
Mexican the only thing stupid about Workchoices was the fact Unca Howie took away the previous no disadvantage test. Had he left the bloody thing the Unions couldn’t say boo to the legislation. The fact ppl were being ripped off meant Howie was breaking his pact with the battlers.
If they’d left the no disadvantage test and had somebody other than Kevin Andrews to sell it like Mal Brough or Joe Hockey from the beginning I would say Howard would probably still be in power today.
[Had the Liberals handed the Pm’ship to Costello in 2006]
I’m hoping (against hope) they’ll hand him the leadership tomorrow!
People in the liberal Party hate Turnbull, where have I heard that said about a leadership contender! my memory is coming up with a guy called Kevin Rudd is hated by the ALP left o wait he lead them to Government.
No 260
You know nothing about the Liberal Party.
263 you’re right – but after 11 years the ALP was deseprate enough to put aside such feelings…
Spam Inbox @ 254
I think your right, whoever wins tomorrow will not be leader at the next election, Turnbull needs to wait until the likes of Minchin are totally discredited, however it looks as if he isn’t going to have the option.
Glen! I don’t think I have ever agreed with you more and without going over old ground there was the problem of how the Australian Fair Pay Commission worked.
Glen, but the whole point of WC was to disadvantage people. Business wasn’t interested in a fiddle at the edges. They wanted the full class-war model, to smash the unions once and for all and drive down wages. Othwerwise what was the point? WC with a “no disadvantage” test was a contradiction in terms. Yes Andrews was a dismal salesman, but no salesman can sell a dud product for long.
Exactly, it could of been done much better, ah well its been and gone now.
The sooner we get Turnbull in the better he’s what 53 he wont be round for more than 2 elections. After all then we can start looking toward the Greg Hunts to lead us to victory in 2016 or later.
GP you say post 260 knows nothing about the Liberal Party, was post number 260 me or Glen.
Have to say, making the announcement at 6:30pm wouldn’t have made Nelson any friends in the media – the TV news miss out, and the papers would all be quickly having to re-write their front pages. Pretty much the 7:30 report and LL were the only winners (and Bruce Bilson was the only LIberal who would agree to go on LL!)
No 260 is evan14 on my screen.
it’s times like this I miss “voter boy over the water”.
Adam in Canberra @ 268
Business didn’t particularly want work choices either. Hawk tamed the unions, it really was enough.
No 257
How existentialist of you.
Is that your best response? Total rubbish? Another one-eyed, die-hard, never to be swayed Lib voter, obviously!
I think, therefore I’m Spam.
You must have been the team leader in your school debating group.
GP! Thank-you
William, I can’t see post numbers!
I dont call giving people a job disadvantaging people, but with the no disadvantage test out it did on pay that i agree with.
Still where the heck is Labor’s IR policy????
All they’ve done is roll back.
I wonder if Nelson wins he’ll release the result in votes. I recall one leadership spill involving Gorton when no figures were released, i suppose to minimise the appearance of division within the party.
One would have to have a punt on Turnbull at those odds.
No 274
The issue with workchoices is that for all the claims about removing regulation, it actually increased regulation and red tape. And even more so once the fairness test was introduced.
I guess we were putting lip stick on a well you get my drift.
GP, I’ve deleted five of your comments today. Lift your game or you’ll be banned.
William, I heard you being interviewed about the WA Election on PM earlier tonight!
Well done, any more radio gigs in the future?
sorry but I just can’t give Brenda credit for having the guts to call the spill, more like he was told to call it himself and go looking like he had some dignity or else someone like Bill Hefferman would do it for him tomorrow and he would be totally humiliated.
After the baked beans, and phantom bill in parliment today who would blame the Fibs for taking swift action.
[The issue with workchoices is that for all the claims about removing regulation, it actually increased regulation and red tape. And even more so once the fairness test was introduced.]
Well, one of the issues certainly. There were several more.
harsh but fair vera
Glen:
Turnball surely is the best bet for your side of politics, he’d give Rudd more than a few headaches. But, will the majority of the Liberal Party cop a more moderate position on an ETS/climate change/the republic/social issues?
[Rather, you are suspicious of people making up their own minds or being exposed to alternative thought.]
Are you referring to astrology?
Evan, I’ve been on AM/World Today/PM about five times in recent weeks, as well as The 7:30 Report, ABC Perth morning show, Triple J’s Hack and various ABC regional programs. However, I wouldn’t hold your breath waiting for me to appear again before the next WA election.
He has the potential to be a Latham or a David Cameron.
[But, will the majority of the Liberal Party cop a more moderate position on an ETS/climate change/the republic/social issues?]
Exactly. Can’t see it myself.
I reckon Pedro’s post at number 234 is worth another look.
For those who missed it, and with William’s indulgence …
[It’s a Minchin/Robb smokescreen/stunt for sure – not only to take the attention off the cossie book release tomorrow, but to present a united face.
1. Arrange a Tuesday ’spill’ to get the media heat off the book launch.
2. Promise Brenda that he will have the numbers tomorrow and be re-elected even though he is a complete loser, so it appears he has the support of a ‘united’ Party. (Party unity in action)
3. To give some credence to the ruse, make sure Turnbull challenges (and loses), but promise to reward him with the leadership ‘at the right time’ – so to the public and media the whole scam seems like a legit vote of confidence in Brenda.
It’s a (rather transparent) Liberal scam. Backroom deals have obviously been made.
The Libs are polling so poorly, and they want to keep Turnbull for a ’strategic’ entry closer to the election – desperate times call for desperate measures!
The numbers men in the Liberal Party are cunning but transparent.]
Latham or Cameron! o dear me tut tut go the Doctor’s Wives
Dario, if the Tories in the UK can be talking about social issues and be 20 odd points ahead of Gordon Brown, i’d say its possible for Liberals to alter their stringent views on some issues.
Historically the Liberal Party is focused around the leader therefore as long as Turnbull is travelling well in the polls and has the Government under some pressure then the Liberal Party will cope for who would be brave enough to takeTurnbull on, its a bit like after 1993 everyone knew Keating was struggling but no one in the ALP would dare take Keating on.
Pedro, I accidentally deleted the comment you just left: what I meant to do was snip it and tell you off for it.
You can double your money on sportingbet for Turnbull if anyone wishes to place money where their mouths are.
Further to my previous point the Liberal Party historically have done best when they have been more socially progressive why do you think seats like Kooyong have never liked Howard.
William: the ABC should dump Michael Brissenden and replace him with your good self.
Can’t you tell I’m sucking up to the moderator?
I’ll wait till tomorrow night, but I really do believe the spill has been arranged in-house, and the outcome is already known within the Liberal Party. A media stunt to diffuse the Costello problem and hopefully present Brendan Nelson as a strong leader before the spill to either Turnbull or someone else they can draft in before the next election. Perhaps they are trying to emulate the way Labor did it with Rudd, but they just haven’t had the renewal time like Labor did with Crean/Beazley/Rudd.
The Liberals are still in ‘we should still be government’ mode and don’t seem likely to regain power until two terms away, at least.
[Dario, if the Tories in the UK can be talking about social issues and be 20 odd points ahead of Gordon Brown, i’d say its possible for Liberals to alter their stringent views on some issues.]
That was after a long, long time in the wilderness. This is not even a year into Opposition. It won’t happen.
New Zealand politics would be far more interesting.
It’s much more left vs right rather than let’s get to the centre to win.