Liberal leadership: round two

Brendan Nelson has thrown the Liberal leadership open to a party room vote tomorrow morning. A source quoted by the ABC calls the move a “suicide mission” and “predicts Malcolm Turnbull has the numbers to take the leadership”. Nelson defeated Turnbull in the first round five days after the November 24 election by 45 votes to 42.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

520 comments on “Liberal leadership: round two”

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  1. Yeah, thats the point of an ETS: major polluters will not like it. Its meant to change behaviour.

    If there;s any other policies you’re not understanding, do remember to stick your hand up.

  2. And the reason I am suspicious of carbon trading has already been debated. I am simply of the view that Government really needs to be driving the investment in alternative energy sources BEFORE introducing emissions trading.

  3. GP: Interest rates will fall. They’ve started too already.

    Is an ETS going to be as expensive to the electorate as ten rate rises in a row. ?

    Affects the hip pocket just the same.

  4. No 201

    Yeah, great. How do you suddenly change the behaviour of a coal company? Or the thousands of other companies reliant on coal-fired electricity? Please do explain. The environmental zealots are so fixated on global warming that they cannot see the forest for the trees.

    Behavioural change requires alternatives. A snap ETS without alternatives simply becomes a de facto tax.

  5. [A difference, yes, but Howard could have had a transition to Costello and left on a high. He went right to the end. You can characterise the legislation however which way you dishonestly want, but Howard had courage.]

    There you go again with the charge of dishonesty. This is becoming quite a habit. You’ve made the same charge over at Possum’s blog and been shown wrong.

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2008/09/15/nelson-plays-poker/#comments

    If Howard had had courage on IR he’d have taken his dream legislation (the most extreme IR laws in the western world) to an election as a major platform ticket.

    In stead he took the IR Coward’s way of waiting till he was RE-elected, THEN dumping it on the heads of the very employees who trustingly voted for him.

    By the way, most people consider that he was motivated to contest the 2007 election out of selfishness first and foremost (well he IS a Liberal). Courage was incidental to his grim determination to hold onto the job no matter the cost to Australia or the Liberal Party.

  6. I hate to break it to you GP – but the BCA aren’t exactly the best barometer of opinion in voter land. The business community (apartm from Ridout) backed WorkChoices pretty strongly in the lead up to the last election campaign, but the policy was about as popular as Nelson is now!! You are on much safer ground when you point out that it is much easier for people to support a policy that they haven’t had to pay for yet (either in terms of slower potential growth or higher prices).

  7. [Yes the people support Carbon Trading me included but once the power bills start going up expect to see opposition grow to it.]

    What you’re forgetting is that the climate will be changing at the same time…

  8. Depends how its sold, and whether support is bipartisan. As I predict the LNP to flush our futures down the dunny for short-term gain, it will be a struggle requiring strong partisan leadership.

    However, it will create far more jobs than people realise; and those jobs will be sustainable careers (as opposed to jobs in dying brown industries), and in the regions as much as the cities.

    And the export potential for technology is just incredible. Tertiary, and top dollar. Someone else will do it if we dont.

  9. Between Generic championing the virtues of the LNP, ESJ who’s gone AWOL and where is Glen, where are we to get any real inside breaking noos about the leadership?

  10. No 209

    Again, it is a constant claim by environmental zealots that all these wonderful “green jobs” will be created, yet we haven’t heard specifics. Just that tens of thousands of people in the coal industries, automotive industries and other related industries will lose their jobs.

    I just cannot believe that some people are so fleeting in their disregard for the magnitude of likely job losses.

  11. GP, since you’re a CC denialist, you’re opinion on whether an ETS will “work” or not, and on whether it’s the best way to tackle CC, is a tad irrelevant, n’est ce pas? As an atheist I don’t presume to lecture Christians on points of theology.

  12. HSO at number 210

    Nope, just dishonesty, Howard idolatry, climate change denial, WorkChoices apology, all the same old Liberal rubbish that mitigated to get them thrown out on their ear at the election.

  13. GP @ 199

    Your hanging your hat on seasoned politicians screwing up the introduction of a major economic reform. I’d say that is pretty much where the Labor party was when they opposed the GST.

    On the weekend Carpenter received the lesson labeled, “don’t go to elections just after an opposition leader change”. Why didn’t he look at the copy handed to Fraser, why did he want to see it again?

    Looks like the Liberals want to again look at the lesson called “don’t treat the public as fools”. Why don’t the just look at the copy handed out by Howard ?

    As I said; get real.

  14. GP – the early targets of the ETS will be quite quite mild, and the corresponding carbon price quite low. Labor will not be dumb enough to set harsh targets and force through a large short-term adjustment, particularly with there being so much uncertainty surrounding what the large international emitters will do. The point of the ETS is to send a credible long-term price signal that facilitates capital to gradually move away from fossil-fuel energy sources toward less emission intenstive sources – whatever they may be. The final Labor policy is unlikely to tax production in the short-run. At the same time, it would be sensible for Labor to abandon the MRET (or at least expand it to include all low-emission technologies) and reconsider its opposition to nuclear energy.

    Labor has more to worry about from the Greens (not going far enough in their eyes) than it does from the Libs.

  15. [Dario, the climate always changes. The question is whether we influence the pattern of change. I think not.]

    You are in the very small minority, so how do you think that is going to be a problem for Rudd, given that most who share your opinion probably don’t vote for him anyway?

  16. No 212

    No, I don’t deny climate change. I am suspicious of the science surrounding anthropogenic climate change. Nevertheless, what I think about the science is academic. The reality is that it will be introduced and it will have dire consequences on our economy and standard of living.

  17. Dario! without knowing your circumstances let me put this to you.

    You get home from your $40,000 ayear job and you open your mailbox to be greeted with a power bill that is more expensive than it was a few years earlier are you going to care more for what the outside air temp is or more preeved off at the Government for creating the increase.

    Regardless of Carbon Trading the currant climate isn’t go to change that much between now and 2010, yes I accept Interest Rates may well be lower than they are now and that will off-set some of the pain, Carbon Trading is to Rudd what the GST was to Howard, it will only hurt him if his other policies are seen as reckless.

  18. [I am suspicious of the science surrounding anthropogenic climate change.]

    I also remember that you are suspicious about the science of evolution.

    Enough said.

  19. mexicanbeemer @ 221

    Howard got the GST in using short term offsets, do you really think the Labor party are incapable of doing the same?

    Come on, stop dreaming get real. If the Liberal party want to win they have to offer a viable alternative.

  20. No 224

    No, I am not suspicious about the science of evolution.

    Rather, you are suspicious of people making up their own minds or being exposed to alternative thought.

  21. No 225

    Stop telling us to get real.

    What we understand to be real is that an ETS will destroy our economy even though Australia’s emissions are only 1.8% of global emissions.

  22. Dario! No one is claiming Global Warming can be stopped and anyway it can’t for the Planet is forever changing and this period of warming started some 10,000 years ago, all the Government is wanting to is minimise our impact on the Climate, In pointing that out both China and India are increaing their output so unless they are included then what we contribute is minor.

  23. [Dario! without knowing your circumstances let me put this to you.]

    okaaayyy…

    [You get home from your $40,000 ayear job]

    hahahahahahahahahaha

  24. Labor getting a ‘low’ target to set was good planning. When they bring it in it will be difficult for others to run a scare campaign when most are complaining it isn’t enough. It leaves the LNP no room to select a lower figure that doesn’t seem like zero.

    The Greens will moan and maybe Labor will take it a touch higher but not so high as to give the LNP any ammunition to say it cause the end of the world. Once it is in then they can tinker with it over time, especially after another election.

    The only option for the LNP will be to choose zero or a higher target. If they chose higher Labor will happily go along with them. And with Turnbull it might just happen LOL.

  25. Also, No 225, a viable alternative would be significant government spending into solar power plants and so forth to build up renewable base load power. Rather than some bureaucratic rabble that is ETS.

    After all, the paragon of climate abatement, the EU, has had an ETS for sometime but has utterly failed to achieve anything on emissions. Yet, everyone is paying more. Fantastic. This is the legacy of idiotic and artificial markets.

  26. [Dario! No one is claiming Global Warming can be stopped and anyway it can’t for the Planet is forever changing and this period of warming started some 10,000 years ago, all the Government is wanting to is minimise our impact on the Climate, In pointing that out both China and India are increaing their output so unless they are included then what we contribute is minor.]

    What does that have to do with the price of fish

  27. It’s a Minchin/Robb smokescreen/stunt for sure – not only to take the attention off the cossie book release tomorrow, but to present a united face.

    1. Arrange a Tuesday ‘spill’ to get the media heat off the book launch.

    2. Promise Brenda that he will have the numbers tomorrow and be re-elected even though he is a complete loser, so it appears he has the support of a ‘united’ Party. (Party unity in action)

    3. To give some credence to the ruse, make sure Turnbull challenges (and loses), but promise to reward him with the leadership ‘at the right time’ – so to the public and media the whole scam seems like a legit vote of confidence in Brenda.

    It’s a (rather transparent) Liberal scam. Backroom deals have obviously been made.

    The Libs are polling so poorly, and they want to keep Turnbull for a ‘strategic’ entry closer to the election – desperate times call for desperate measures!

    The numbers men in the Liberal Party are cunning but transparent.

  28. When I say you are a CC denialist, I meant that you deny that CC is caused by, or can be reversed by, human activity.

    Yes serious action against CC will have economic costs. No-one denies that. But inaction will have higher costs. Responsible politicians accept this. Irresponsible politicians just see it an an issue to score cheap opportunist points. History will judge them VERY harshly.

  29. Fredn! I refer you to my first point, I said with things looking tight Rudd needed to be the fiscal conservative that he promised, I’m not saying he is gone far from but Rudd is entering an interesting period and if the liberal Party are to be a serious threat to Rudd they need a leader that can take them on, I’m not sure how long you have been on Poll Bludger but I openly supported Kevin Rudd in the lead up to the last Federal election both as Mexicanbeemer and before that as bmwofoz & bmwofvictoria

  30. GP @ 228

    Go for it, play with fairies, but I’m one of the 2% you have to attract back if the Liberals are to form government.

    Your irrational arguments may be attractive to those who will vote for no one other than the Liberal party but that doesn’t get you into government now does it.

  31. Dario! you have commented to the effect that Rudd will cope no backlash over increasing power bills.

    for the voters support Carbon Trading, you found my comment about a voter being on $40,000 reacting to opening a bill as funny, in making that fiqure I wasn’t referring you and if you are laughting at people on those incomes then may I susgest you cease to be a supporter of the ALP.

  32. No 236

    Responsible politicians don’t murder their economies when our total emissions are ineffectual.

    I actually think that the move to greener energy is a good thing in terms of securing energy independence, cleaner air and more environmentally sustainable development.

    Climate change is merely a secondary issue when there are far greater reasons to move to greener energy. I just think that the magnitude of investment required necessitates government involvement, not an the imposition of an artificial market that increases costs without adequate alternatives.

  33. Australia’s total emissions are minuscule, thus it makes no sense to move before the rest of the world.

    The people want it, they’ve said so in big numbers time and time again. They may well change their minds when they realise they have to pay for it. But as it stands right now, they were asked, they answered and it should be respected and acted on

  34. [Australia’s total emissions are minuscule, thus it makes no sense to move before the rest of the world.]

    How are we moving before the rest of the world?

  35. GP, “Murder the economy” is just hype. There will be costs, but not murderous ones, and not as great as the costs of inaction. The fact that Australia only produces 1% of emissions is irrelevant. We are among the highest per capita emiters, and rich nations like Australia must take the lead if we expect big developing emiters like China and India to make the real sacrifices that cutting their emissions will entail. If CC continues, Australia suffer more than most. It’s thus very much in our interests to lead.

    Why don’t you have a chat to Greg Hunt about this, GP? He knows all this stuff extremely well and I don’t think he wants to murder the economy.

  36. mexicanbeemer @ 237

    Fair enough, my central point is, these people are politicians, they will introduce a trading scheme that has general support, for the Liberals to hang their hat on the possibility of a stuff up is wishful thinking. The Liberals have to offer a viable alternative.

    I actually think Turnbull is the right man, but I don’t think he will last more than 6 months, too many conservative in the party don’t want it to go where they have to go to win.

  37. [Dario! you have commented to the effect that Rudd will cope no backlash over increasing power bills.]

    There might be some, but it won’t bring him down

    [for the voters support Carbon Trading, you found my comment about a voter being on $40,000 reacting to opening a bill as funny, in making that fiqure I wasn’t referring you and if you are laughting at people on those incomes then may I susgest you cease to be a supporter of the ALP.]

    I know exactly what you were inferring. May I suggest you are assuming that these people will blame Rudd, and I think you will be wrong.

  38. It’s a bold move by Nelson, but i’d have to back Turnbull as the winner tomorrow.
    I must say i like Nelson and i am not happy the public havent warmed to him, but that’s more the Liberal brand federally than anything else. Still it is a gamble and let’s not forget all those former MPs who voted for Nelson and lost their seats as well as the old Senators. Turnbull has to be favourite.

    The phones must be running hot tonight.

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