Brendan Nelson has thrown the Liberal leadership open to a party room vote tomorrow morning. A source quoted by the ABC calls the move a “suicide mission” and “predicts Malcolm Turnbull has the numbers to take the leadership”. Nelson defeated Turnbull in the first round five days after the November 24 election by 45 votes to 42.
GP,
I actually agree with your assessment. But, the plain facts are that the voters regard Nelson as a dud atm. No doubt he will take this very hard personally. However, there is always a chance of a comeback if he has the bottle. Furthermore, he will be completely removed from the internecine fight that is about to happen.
Turnbull is not popular within his Party and the dark forces are bound to want to see him smitten.
Nelson may re emerge in about five years as a genuine leadership contender.
No 49
I was resolute in arguing that Nelson should spill prior or on the launch of the book. That way if Costello truly means what he says, the matter would be finally settled.
The irony of course is that Costello was due to spruik his book on Commy Kerry’s show this evening until the surprise spill was called.
There must be quite a few blue-rinse (and other) monarchists in the Liberal-supporting bloc getting toey roundabout now.
Does anyone think anything other than a Turnbull win will kill off leadership problems?
Didn’t think so.
No 51
I doubt your assessment that Turnbull is not popular. The MPs that are opposed to him are mostly concerned with his inexperience in the parliament and lack of fine-tuned political judgment. Others are concerned that he is a trot.
Odds are that he’ll win tomorrow, but frankly it is shamefully disappointing that Nelson has been treated with such contempt by his own colleagues both in the media and elsewhere.
GP @ 46. You may believe that. It’s a question of whether you are prepared to do the work to mount a credible alternative. Not happening with your mob, I’m afraid. In my view, not going to happen for some, possibly, considerable time. I don’t think either Nelson or Turnbull can unite the LNP and bring the sort of discipline that Rudd brought to Labor.
No 54
Even if Turnbull wins, the speculation won’t necessarily end. Costello has expressed much angst at the thought of Turnbull leading. It is my opinion that Costello will run for leader tomorrow.
fun fun fun!
No 56
Snapper, again, your living with the fairies. People who join the ALP or the Libs in the parliament want to govern at some point. No-one likes being in opposition and the chaos that characterises the current opposition is not too dissimilar to the ALP five years ago.
Goodness, GP, did you read something I posted earlier, in total mischief mode?
Don’t assume Turnball will win!
A large section of the Liberal Party hates the man, they’d prefer to keep a tool like Nelson as leader!
Whoever wins, let it be as close a vote as possible, I want a completely destabilised opposition!
Gary –
Did he? I haven’t seen that, but I’ll take it at your word. Mind you, nobody else has dared to pre-empt it yet. You would suspect that if Turnbull IS going to run, he will announce it in the next couple of hours. He won’t want to give Nelson the front page to himself tomorrow if a number of MP’s are still on the fence.
My thinking is though… challenge now and he goes to the backbench. It worked for Keating yes but Keating had 8 or so years of being Treasurer under his belt, and didn’t exactly need the exposure to try and prove himself.
Turnbull would probably benefit from the added six-twelve months from being shadow-Treasurer, taking pot shots as Swan as the economy begins to slide down the toilet. Would also show his ‘loyalty.’ I think Milne had a point (sorry guys) on the weekend when he suggested that it is in his best interests to wait and give off the illusion he has ‘learnt patience.’ But logic doesn’t always win out against ambition.
Anyway, we’ll see.
GP,
I am not trying to be cute.
Minchin, Abbott and his block etc. are all in the “Anyone but Turnbull” faction. These are the serious heavies of the liberal Party. Abbott as deputy to Turnbull. Watch your back!
Turnbull to win but will it matter much? His instincts will take him back toward the centre ground (republic, reconciliation, environment, etc) – but will the right of the party accept that or his autocratic style? For that matter, will marginal voters take to him? He will surely do better than Nelson, but I suspect not very much.
Quick question, and then I’ll get back on topic. Where does Cossie stand on the republic issue?
Premier-elect Colin Barnett should give some words of wisdom to the federal Libs I say. Our federal brand is being damaged with this stop-start routine. The federal Libs need a clean spoken, straight-forward individual like Colin. Who agrees?
Your wrong GG. Abbott, certainly, is not anyone but Turnbull. Abbott and the others have only really criticised Turnbull’s experience. Anything else is just a media fabrication.
you’re not your
Cuppa – Costello supports becoming a republic.
Thanks Tobias.
The support for a republic has collapsed anyway according to all recent polls. Go to norepublic.com.au for more information.
Where does Cossie stand on the republic issue?
Exactly where Nick Minchin tells him to.
GP @ 58,
Off topic, but,
Rob Hulls, The current Victorian AG parked next to Jeff Kennett fcoincidentally just after Labor won the election in 1999.
As you do when you are talking to someone you work with but work against but meet in non structured situation you chat amiably.
Apparently, Kennett said, “Congratulations on winning Government. Every Parliamentarian should have the opportunity to be in Government”.
Hulls said, “Thank you for the Opportunity”.
Rubbish, Fag.
Turnbull is a shoo-in tomorrow. It’s inconceiveable that they’ll go with Mr. 16%.
But the other thing I like about this is that Cozzie’s book is now ancient histoy.
As are Cozzie’s (and his spruikers’, like shanahan) ambitions.
This is the first smart thing Nelson has done.
Pity it’s also the last.
Costello will be in the islands working the Family Business by year’s end. Turnbull will be leader on 30% (and falling).
Nelson will be Shadow Minister for Somrthing-Irrelevant.
And Kevin Rudd will still be Prime Minister, will still be miles ahead of the Opposition (large or small “O”).
[It is my opinion that Costello will run for leader tomorrow.]
Well he should, but he is too gutless.
GP @ 57,
You speculate that Costello will run tomorrow? ROTFL …… if so, that will make QT one big barrel of laughs, I am really looking forward to TH now, I always try to watch but TH will be there in person … whether Turnbull or anyone else, this will be grand entertainment 🙂
No 76
We shall see.
GP,
Opinions can never be wrong. Maybe misinformed.
The reality is that Minchin, Abbott and Co will do everyting they can to do over Turnbull and his small Liberal values. This includes making him Leader of the Opposition.
Cuppa @ 65,
He supports it. His ONE repeat ONE redeeming feature in this ALP voters eye 😉
No 79
You are misinformed and wrong.
No 80
juliem, we already have an Australian head of state. The republic is a waste of time and money. You lot can’t even work out what model you want and yet, Australians are expected to place a vote of no confidence in one of the Western World’s most stable democracies.
GP @ 58. Of course I’m living with the fairies, and Santa, and, and, and the tooth fairy.
Truly, I don’t know why I bother. I’ve figured out you’re fairly youngish, but do you smile, tell jokes, enjoy the ironies of life, a bit of satire?
Do you know there have been great and enduring friendships across LNP and Labor party lines? Usually are people of intellect, wit and compassion, who could respect each others’ party affiliations and allegiance, while still respecting, liking and having admiration for each other.
In short, sometimes, I have my tongue in my cheek, and sometimes, there’s a point behind the joke.
Come on GP, I enjoy reading your thoughts on various matters and yes, you cleverly have an “out”(see, it’s easy) by saying you were just shortening Fagins name… but you don’t need to do that cheap stuff, I respect you more when you stick with your well written opinions, not cheap taunts
A careless error Spam box
It certainly hasn’t been a dull couple of weeks in Australian Politics.
GP, as soon as the Queen dies the Republic will cruise it in
No 83
The problem is, your disparaging and disingenuous dismissals of anything to do with the Liberal party is not conducive to a relationship of mutual intellectual respect.
GP@ 81,
I am neither.
As an apparatchik of the Libs, where do you stand on the leadersip and why?
The Fibs are going to be sorely wedged on the republic issue if Allbull gets up tomorrow.
No 89
If you believe you are neither, you should state your sources. The fact is you haven’t spoken to any Liberal parliamentarian to make those presumptions.
No 90
Since we’re on a path of disrespecting politicians by calling them infantile names, I shall refer to Mr Rudd as Krudd, Ms Wong as Pong, Garrett as Terrets and Swan as Dill.
Cuppa,
It would be the first thing that Rudd and Co should start talking about. Wedgie the Libs with the ultimate underpants accessory.
Oh god here we go again.
Nelson wants to go in all guns blazing, but had the MPs who didnt end up winning their seat not had a vote Malcolm would have been the leader 10 months ago.
This smacks of desparation. Oh well at least it will be over and done with.
I fear we shall have a new leader tomorrow.
Also is the deputy job going to be up for a vote??? I hope Julie wins but Fat Tony may get it or Robb.
I would be asking leader Turnbull if he can guarantee that Workchoices in all its disguises is totally and absolutely finished as a Liberal party policy. There are those in the party that still have a flame for it.
However if Turnbull is smart he will manage is ego and not let his ego manage him and delay his challenge until the new year.
Feel the wedge, GP, feel the wedge …
Check the timing! Why now? Sure Turnbull is back in town, but what was wrong with next week? It scotches Nelson’s OWN pension attacks on the government.
No: there’s only one explanation. He’s stuffing up Cossie’s book launch! Serves Smirker right for generally wasting everyone’s time with his Hamlet routine.
No 94
The Deputy Leadership has not been spilt.
Dario @ 87, especially so now that the news broke from London today that Charles is trying to sneak his Queen in via the back door …..
Oh come on GP, allbull is sooo descriptive!