Morgan leadership poll

Roy Morgan has published a phone poll of 544 respondents featuring a series of preferred leader questions. Main findings: Kevin Rudd leads Brendon Nelson 65-18 and Julia Gillard 49-21; Gillard favoured as best non-Rudd Labor leader over Swan 44-12; Peter Costello the favoured Liberal leader of 31 per cent, compared with 20 per cent for Malcolm Turnbull and 10 per cent Brendan Nelson.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

224 comments on “Morgan leadership poll”

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  1. I don’t think he could ever “take over” the leadership now, even if his arm could be twisted. More than before he is now damaged goods, thanks to the fallout from his book, which comes on top of the months of damage his stringing them along from the backbench has done to the Fibs.

    If by some miracle he did “become leader” Labor would have a field day with the ammunition he has left lying around for them to use. The insights they must have into his character by now – his unsuitableness for the job – would be considerable, and bound to be used to devastating effect.

  2. Cuppa

    Not much has changed about Costello’s deficiencies since election night and the Costello boosters have been at it for 10 months. They fail to see the damage of the goods.

  3. [Why would Talcum want the leadership now? I think he will do a Rudd and take over pre-christmas prior to the election.]

    The longer Nelson stays there to more glued in the Liberal primary will be at around the mid to high 30s. So the longer Turnbull leaves it, the harder it will be for him to win, or come close enough to stay on as leader after an election loss.

  4. It’s Time

    Yes he’s still the same sad bag of inadequacies as has been long known. The difference now is that his book enunciates a lot of it in his own words.

    For example, the hurt by he felt when double-crossed by Howard has been know for so long now it’s become part of political lore. However, when it’s put in his own words – his choice of adjectives etc – it gives more tangibility to the substance.

    Likewise where he lays out a list of policy changes he said he’d have purseued if he had become leader – ratified Kyoto, pursued reconciliation more actively etc – there’s one thing that’s conspicuous by its absence. WorkChoices. No mention of his planning to soften that. The obvious conclusion is that he’d have retained the thing, probably even made it more extreme as he’d long wanted to do (though before the election denied he would).

    The book will put the flesh on the bones of a lot of what is already known about his character and policy weaknesses. Adding up to an arsenal of info and damaging insight that Labor would be bound to employ against him if he ever put his head up.

  5. Cuppa

    There is a lot in what you are saying. tip did well when he “had the microphone” (so did rodent) ie compliant speaker in the house, use of glib one liners or not answering the question, running rings around a compliant GG and other msn.

    the book is totally different. the rules change away from tips position of advantage. IF – a big if, IF he tells it all – it has to damage the fibs. If not, he shows himself to be a gutless wonder, yet again.

  6. Hammock did say something about No-Choices, he would have “sold” the fairness test better.

    I wonder how avuncular Joe liked those words?

    Talcum knows that one term Govts are as rare as hens teeth in Australia, so he is willing to let the damage be done, talk of a one term Govt. is Shanahan and Milne fantasy.

    So Talcum has two options, take over before the election and hope to keep the loss to a minimum (my preferred scenario) or wait until after the election and be the next “messiah”.

  7. Dave

    Unfortunately for Tip the juiciest morsels of what he has to say will be printed in the papers for free. Leaving not a lot of incentive to go out and actually pay good money for his book, unless one is really into the non-controversial, boring stuff. Political tragics, Liberal tribalists: not a wide readership I would have thought. Lucky he got his multi-figure advance up-front eh?

    You’re right about his “performances” in Question Time. The government side always has the advantage in this format. It’s easy to rant and bellow at length under the pretense of “answering questions”, especially when you’ve got the compliance of a very partisan Speaker, which the Fibs had in David Hawker.

    It’s a lot harder to make a platform for attack rhetoric when in Opposition. Too much like hard work for The Hammock, and he knows it.

    Besides, I doubt his ego would be able to stand up to the withering attacks he knows will come from the Labor side of the house, now THEY’VE got the floor (and the ammo to use against him.)

  8. I can’t believe the Libs are going to roll Nelson this year. Did they really think ANY leader could have turned around Rudd’s popularity in less than a year? Rudd may be disappointing various interest groups, but there have been no scandals, no resignations, no major fuck-ups. In the absence of these, Rudd’s huge head-start of popularity is good for at least one parliament, and everyone knows it. Turnbull would be mad to take the leadership now, on the maybe 10% chance that things will go so radically bad for Rudd that he loses in 2010. If he waits and lets Nelson take the loss, he can take over after 2010 with fair prospects of winning in 2013. But of course vanity and ambition don’t make rational calculations like that.

  9. [There will be no resurrection of Peter Costello, senior Liberal and party strategist Andrew Robb says.]

    Of course Robb would say that, according to Dennis Shanahan, Robb wants to be Turnbull’s Shadow Treasurer.

  10. OK

    Moving here to press for a “General Politics” thread to be refreshed weekly.

    William correctly said that the WA state election thread was moving off topic. But he says:

    “That’s exactly what opinion poll threads are. People staying on-topic is what will solve the problem.”

    I have tried in the past to get people on the opinion poll threads to stick to the poll data, not discuss off topic crud.

    So now I know that is how it is supposed to work – I will be on and off topic in this thread. 🙂

  11. [quote]Seems that Malcolm “Sitting” Turnbull is preparing his massacre of Brendon “Custer” Nelson.[/quote]

    If Brenda is “Custer” then why is Malcolm “Sitting” Turnbull?

  12. How are the Fibs going to introduce their money for single aged liberal voting women pensioners bill?

    Will they be a laughing stock next week? Along with Bob Brown?

    Or do they think they are still in Govt?

  13. all Costello did on 60 minutes was reinforce his spinelessness, Tanya is definately dreaming if she thought that Cossie could have toppled Rudd and Rudd only became PM because everyone wanted to get rid of Howard, she conveniently forgot about work choices, tampa, AWA, the war, Haneef and all of the other little irritations that Costello was complicent in, not to say about the constant bending of the truth, Cossie has still left the door open to take over as leader at a much later date–his brother and even Ray Martin seems to think that, perhaps he wants to punish the libs and then make them beg on bended knees, i dont think his massive ego lets him realise he looks rediculesly like a petulant sulky schoolboy, it would certainly be a turn off for any prospective employer.

  14. My personal opinion is that Cozzie’s had some kind of breakdown, a mind-snap.

    He can’t get a job befitting the ex-Greatest Treasurer In History, he can’t have the leadership, his book is going to tank big time, and now he’s a laughing stock even among his own colleagues (the ones who only last week were “praying” for him to make a comeback).

    There is no comeback, and no fallback. Cozzie’s dug himself a great big hole and is now busy filling it in. It’s actually quite self-destructive, and I wouldn’t be surprised if self-harm didn’t come into it at some stage. Unless he makes a complete break…

    He just wants the attention that a little brother never had. Ok, so he’ll get it for a while, maybe another ten days. But after that, Cozzie will recede into the background and disappear into that pit he’s dug. He sold his soul to Howard and – even if it’s true Howard “always had a reason” for not going – Cozzie never gave it that last push to see if he could make it to PM. “No ticker” in spades, and he knows it more than anyone else. This next couple of weeks is his last political hurrah, and after that… The Abyss. Don’t get me wrong here… it’s all his own fault… but I’m actually starting to worry about his sanity, and his safety. It’s the humanity in me, I guess.

    I’d say the only way out for him, the only method of self-rehabilitation he’s got left is to join his brother Tim in his World Vision work. It’d be a slow process, but I think it would do him a lot of good. No-one could naysay charitable work, no-one (except those with the hardest hearts) would criticise his decision on that particular path of personal redemption. Cozzie has skills… he could intimidate a few small Indonesians if he liked. Or maybe stand over some of the more modestly-sized Sri Lankans, perhaps even a diminutive Burmese General or two? On a good day, well, the sky’s the limit… why not take on a fully-fledged Somali assistant warlord?

    So, here’s a bold and fearless prediction: Peter Costello won’t go to Collins St. He won’t stay in Parliament to service the silvertails of Higgins. He’ll never be leader of the Opposition, and certainly not Prime minister. Peter Costello will go into charitable work, a truly noble cause and one he needs so much. I think he may just find his true vocation and could do a lot of good. God knows, he’s got a lot to atone for and to work out within himself… I honestly think it could be the genuine making of the man and a really good thing for Planet Earth.

  15. i cant help but wonder how two brothers bought up the same way could be so different, i cant see Cossie doing anything charitable Bill, his ego and over inflated sense of worth would stop him, besides he’s far too lazy, i really dont think he’d ever be game to take over the leadership, theres too many long memories about the abuse he dished out over the years with the help of a compliant speaker,all of the so called humour, there’d be a congo line up waiting to dish it back to him and lets face it they’d have plenty of ammo, if he doesnt get in the front lines and stays quiet they cant reach him, the longer he stays the better his pension–and i’ll bet theres no lucrative job offers in the wings, business know how little he did as treasurer, did you see 60 minutes Bill, even Ray Martin had a couple of little digs –smiling nicely of course.

  16. Judith, all true what you say, but I suggest it only reinforces my point.

    Cozzie has nowhere to go along the path that his fantasising admirers have mapped out for him: position on a board, over-the-top remuneration etc. etc.

    Cozzie is cornered. As you rightly posit: no-one wants him, not his party, not “the commercial sector”. There’s only one thing left: the Family Business.

    Peter is not, at this moment, a charitable type of bloke. He’s a standover merchant who (when push comes to shove) could vut it in a fair fight aginst the Old Coconut, Howard.Right now Costello’s full of hubris and resentment that the party which doesn’t want him now (or until recently) has been lately begging for him to come back. But they’ve now moved on to Sitting Turnbull vs. Custer Nelson. Costello is, or will soon be, background noise.

    Working for World Vision is a no-questions-asked path to escape. He can justify not receiving a huge, inflated salary, by pointing out – in full smirk mode if he wants to – that workers for charities don’t get the bulbous packages that corporate exes do. So, there’s an out on the salary sledge.

    His brother Tim is an unmitigated force for good in the world (in my opinion at least… I’ve given a lot to his charity over the years). The prospect of the two Costello brothers joining forces – as I’ve termed it, working together in “The Family Business” – to do more good works is a strong one, hard to snipe at, no matter how cynical you are.

    Further, Peter knows he has a lot of penance to do. There is no absolution without contrition, and without penance (as Father Kennedy used to drum into us altar boys). to be able to roll his sleeves up and help other human beings, out of the limelight must have a strong attraction to his tortured soul. Don’t think for a moment that Tim hasn’t been in his little brother’s ear on this one. Can anyone say Peter isn’t tortured? He’s concreted himself into a dead end. Good works are an honourable and, given he has a lot of skills (despite the unfortunate personality that goes with them), even noble vocation.

    Peter won’t see it that way at first. All he’ll be looking for, at least at first, is a way out of the conundrum he’s gotten himself into with some kind of dignity preserved, even if it is faux dignity.

    But I think he could grow into the role. Think of the potential… it’d be a way out of the business world (who don’t want him), out of the Party (who are frustrated with him and have never liked him), politics (where he was never going to succeed on his own), out of the expectations of the dead-beat jigsaw puzzle freaks like the Shanahans of this world, and a way back into the core values of his family: genuine service, traditional values and a charitable disposition. Most importantly, he can reconcile with Tim, the big brother who used to knock him around (and who taught him how to be a bully) way back when they were in short pants. It woudld be the ultimate Eff-Youse-All that Peter could offer his critics before subsuming himself in the minutae of looking after the less well advantaged of his world.

    All the man needs is a little self-honesty. And I think that time has come. I think he’s ready for the break. I think he’d be doing himself, and others, a favour by considering a life of redemption in good works.

    I’ve never thought Peter was stupid. I’ve only ever thought he was weak and misguided. Time to turn those weaknesses into strengths and really surprise us all.

    But I think he could do a good job at it. And deep down, I think he thinks that too.

  17. Personally I feel Peter was getting revenge on Howard by striking out at Howard’s favourite little toy, the Liberal party. He probably feels he has been used and abused by Howard and Co and, to be handed the party by Howard on election night, after having made a mess of it, must have been a real slap in face.

    Howard played with the toy until he broke it then gave it to Costello before heading off for home.

    So every little dip in the polls must have been/be music to Costello’s ears as it means Howard’s legacy is in ruins. And it also pays out those who were against him but desperately want him to save them now.

    Costello will hang around at his leisure and enjoy the fact that his presence makes everyone’s life more difficult.

    Now if they all get nasty (including the Howard journalists) he can simply dump on them.

  18. Hoorah!!

    Given that many commenter’s on this site feel strongly about the role **The Australian** has in consistently reporting in a unbiased and balanced view of Oz news, I’m sure many of you will recognise that this award is justly deserved. 😆

    The Australian website wins 2008 PANPA Online Newspaper of the Year award

    September 10, 2008

    THE Australian’s website has been named the 2008 PANPA Online Newspaper of the Year at an awards ceremony on the Gold Coast.

    Run by the Pacific Area Newspaper Publishers Association, the awards recognise excellence in newspapers.

    The Australian Online took out PANPA’s top honour for a metropolitan website ahead
    of two New Zealand websites – http://www.dompost.co.nz and http://www.stuff.co.nz – which were highly commended.

  19. Costello is about to move in to Liberal Party destruction mode. Costello has no particular regard for Nelson, but, obviously, the thwarting of Turnbull is high on his agenda. But, this is just a precursor to the ideological battle between Unions and H.R. Nicholls cohorts.

    Costello is playing all the Libs for suckers. He’s prepared to destroy it to resurrect it as a new Conservative Party.

  20. the longer he hangs about the weaker he’ll be seen to be, his constituants are going to give him the heave if he stays around till the next election, i think he’s been overdoing the long lunches, the odd spot of golf, the overseas trips and the touring relentlessly flogging off his book in their time, even the most forbearing voters are going to resent being taken for fools, who would have thought he’d end up as the lib’s very own Mark Latham, the trouble is the man cant see himself as others do through his hubris.

  21. Actually, can anyone name a better newspaper for feedback and argument than The Australian?

    Herald blogs? Pffft.

    The Age? Baldedash.

    Like it or not, The Australian deserves this award. They may hate bloggers, but no publication has facilitated blogging better than the Oz. Call it Rupert’s plaything, or a loss leader, or even the Opposition’s Organ… but you have to admit News, and in particular the Australian has done better than most in opening up its pages to comments.

  22. That is a correct and I find it annoying that the SMH doesn’t have a decent blog set up. If they want flies to buzz around their advertising then a few decent easy to use blogs is the way to go.

    By the way – Swan sticks the knife deep into Costello in that little piece. Tell us what you really think Wayne!

  23. I would also like to nominate –

    Janet Albrechtsen for *Best and Fairest * .

    Christian Kerr for *Best flame ever*(crikey!)

    Dennis Shanahan for *Strategy*

    Caroline Overington for *Trying her hardest*(after injury)

  24. Costello is about to move in to Liberal Party destruction mode. Costello has no particular regard for Nelson, but, obviously, the thwarting of Turnbull is high on his agenda. But, this is just a precursor to the ideological battle between Unions and H.R. Nicholls cohorts.

    Costello is playing all the Libs for suckers. He’s prepared to destroy it to resurrect it as a new Conservative Party.

    And how will all this argy bargy reflect on a newly elected WA Liberal Government, espically for the WA federal players like Bishop etc ?

  25. As soon as all the ‘OMFG it’s the end of wall-to-wall Labor!!1!’ dies down, I bet Bishop will start throwing her weight around, and bearing in mind she’s in opposition and Barnett isn’t, life could get quite interesting. Remember, she tried to become WA Liberal leader after Richard Court got kicked out – there’s some ambition there.

  26. The worst and funniest thing that could happen to the Liberals is if the next Newspoll is an outlier a 54/44 or the like. They will all be wondering if Nelson is cutting through and bring them to even more confusion.

    The last extract of Costello’s book reads like a mixture of mundane political sniping at Labor, rewriting of economic history with himself has hero and a very softly worded hint that Howard should have stepped aside or at least prepared for succession. Sorry but I find it fairly spineless and wishy washy. Costello is trying to be ever so careful. One hopes that in future years he will write a proper genuine description.

  27. Dario

    Brenda asked why pensioners are worse off under Labor.

    Rudd gave details of the $20 per week increase in the last budget. 🙂

  28. No 94

    The new aph website is quite good. The ABC repeats of QT are always edited and chopped – at least full versions can now be accessed.

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