Morgan leadership poll

Roy Morgan has published a phone poll of 544 respondents featuring a series of preferred leader questions. Main findings: Kevin Rudd leads Brendon Nelson 65-18 and Julia Gillard 49-21; Gillard favoured as best non-Rudd Labor leader over Swan 44-12; Peter Costello the favoured Liberal leader of 31 per cent, compared with 20 per cent for Malcolm Turnbull and 10 per cent Brendan Nelson.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

224 comments on “Morgan leadership poll”

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  1. [I think Joe Hockey would be a good leader. He comes across as more in touch.]

    His problem is he can’t sell policy convincingly. Whenever he’s been pressed on negatives of something (e.g. Workchoices) he just goes all red or looks lost and falls apart.

  2. I like the way us “poll academics” get mentioned when Gary gives us the two party preferred vote, but then fails to mention the primaries!

    Aaargh!

  3. [read the link gary provides
    he equates mesmerelda with sarah palin WTF]

    I swear Morgan is just trying to get a rise out of people lately to generate more interest in his polls. He’s been writing some pretty nonsensical rubbish.

  4. Thomas Paine, the greens hate the libs more than they love labor (although that may well be the case). I’ve a GF in Perth who always votes Greens #1, she always puts Liberals last (no matter what the HTV for the Greens says) and then ranks the rest based upon the HTV πŸ˜‰

  5. Julie please explain the high percentage of greens preferences going to the Libs in WA?

    Because they didn’t follow the Greens HTV card which preferenced Labor πŸ™‚

  6. Julie please explain the high percentage of greens preferences going to the Libs in WA?

    The usual GP, upper class guilt πŸ˜‰

  7. What are the OO and others going to go on about now that Costello has dashed their fantasies? There is a looming leadership vacuum in the Liberal party and now a narrative vacuum for some in the OO.

    Turnbull might be the LNP next option but he is still quite green in media performance and waffles, talks nonsense, rubbish and uses too much over the top language.

    The OO praising Turnbull the same way the did Howard and Costello would be like putting a pig on lipstick.

  8. Anonymous
    Posted Friday, September 12, 2008 at 11:07 pm | Permalink
    “When are Morgan going to wake up and ask the punters if they prefer Bob Brown as PM? I think they are afraid of the answer.”

    thats correct , they know it would be under 8% (ie. Greens vote last election) and so Polsters do not want to look silly wasting money on a foolish irrelevant poll of under 8% , meaning 92% don’t want him

  9. The Costello leadership speculation hiatus lasted exactly 25 hours, 13 minutes 42.56 seconds.

    Once the deluded grasp onto a fantasy they don’t ever want to let it go.

    Poor Dennis. All that effort for nothing.

  10. While I am usually not in a hurry to commend the OO, congratulations are in order for the OO which today pays Pollbludger bloggers the tacit *grin* compliment by catching up with what bludgerbloggers have been saying for some time. It is ironic that in the same week that Mark Day, in the OO, trashed bloggers, the OO has demonstrated that it is weeks, and months behind same. Samples from today’s OO:

    Shanahan: ‘It just seems that everyone within the Liberal Party, through factional fighting, lack of talent, bastardry and depression, can’t get their act together – even with the prospect of government.’

    My only comment on that is that while reasonably comprehensive, he left out cowardice as a signature element of the package.

    Jennifer Hewett:

    ‘What a fiasco.’

    My comment on that it is not news.

    Lenore Taylor

    ‘For godsakes, start being an Opposition. It’s getting to the stage where I don’t give a toss who leads the Liberal Party, I just wish someone would.’

    My comment on that is that bloggers have been saying for months that it is not news.

  11. I hate to say this but I agree with Andrew Bolt, Climate Change is a giant left wing conspiracy, OOPS…. I mean, I think will hang around and have a go at the leadership closer to the election. It fits his behaviour…

  12. GP, Frank hit it on the head. People who haven’t followed the HTV card. My friend’s choices are personal to her alone. She is a dyed in the wool Greens voter and as such, she was handing out HTV cards for one of the Upper House Green candidates for the Senate. If the HTV card she was handing out to others had suggested putting Libs #2, even though she was handing out for that candidate, she still would have ignored those preferences personally and put the Libs last.

  13. [even with the prospect of government]

    Shanners is still utterly deluded if he thinks the government is even close to being a one-termer though. I mean please, let’s have some sanity for once.

  14. Peter Ruehl in todays Fin Rev reckons – ” Brenda is never going to be PM unless there is a nuclear attack and the only only left are brenda and the cockroaches and even then a healthly looking cockroach might be an option”.

  15. WTF is wrong with Costello! He says on Thursday that he won’t seek the leadership, and won’t serve if it is offered to him. But now we are back to the fact that this is actually a ploy, and he will run against Turnbull, but only if Turnbull first runs against Nelson! http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/back-off-warns-costello/2008/09/12/1220857835002.html

    So he will go for a job he doesn’t want just to thwart a guy who does want the job. This has to be one of the most schizophrenic and gutless politicians in living memory.

  16. I missed that “with the prospect of government” line from Shanna’s piece. But my point remains the same: deluded.

    Something else it shows if Shanahan is still speculating and shuffling those little cards around on his desk trying to find answers that add up to “Liberal government, 2010”, it shows he’s [i]way[/i] out of the loop. His columns are based (at their best) on maybe a phone call here or a corridor conversation there. This is not great political journalism in the Woodstein mold. It’s “making it up as he goes along”.

    The OO’s criticisms of bloggers are that the journos do the hard work and the bloggers parasitically feed off them. Apart from there being nothing wrong with this arrangement at all (in my view), Shanahan’s desperate ruminations show clearly that he’s making it all up too, just like they’re accusing the Blogoshpere of doing. If we’re fantasising, then they are fantasising just as much as we are.

  17. [Wasn’t Shanahan gung-ho and a few weeks ago of Costello riding in to return the Liberals to their rightful place in govenment?]

    Yes. 4 weeks ago he assured us that we could “Count on Costello”.

  18. I heard a bit of an interview with Costello yesterday. Even when he was questioned repeatedly on whether he would rule out ever assuming the Lib leadership he still couldn’t give a definitive answer without leaving a loophole. Typical of a lawyer politician.

  19. [I heard a bit of an interview with Costello yesterday. Even when he was questioned repeatedly on whether he would rule out ever assuming the Lib leadership he still couldn’t give a definitive answer without leaving a loophole. Typical of a lawyer politician.]

    All the Costello supporters (Punce Pyne, Tony Smith et al) should be encouraging Turnbull to challenge Nelson, because that’s the only way that Costello will become leader.

  20. ShowsOn

    No, I think Costello will only take the job if he is drafted unchallenged into the job. He doesn’t want to actually work to get the job. This is the loophole he is leaving himself, apart from the perennial fallback: things have changed which I could not have foreseen so I am free to change my mind.

  21. [No, I think Costello will only take the job if he is drafted unchallenged into the job. He doesn’t want to actually work to get the job.]

    No, he said on Thursday that if he is drafted he won’t accept. The only reason he is hanging around is to stop Turnbull from getting the job, therefore, the best way for Costello backers to get Costello into the job is for them to support Turnbull in a challenge against Nelson.

    I know that sounds illogical, but that is how screwed up the federal Libs currently are.

  22. It’s Time

    Of course turnbull and whoever his backers are will surely run interference should tip ever now “return” and become leader.

    rodent’s book is yet to come out as well and no doubt that will have appropriate payback on tip’s book.

    Looks like poison chalices all round for the fibs for a while yet to come. “people skills” abbott sitting there in the background hoping to be called after the coming blood-bath.

    Aint it grand to see them playing in the sandpit πŸ™‚

  23. Hammock knows that he will sell more books if he is the member for Higgins. His publishers have done a great job in the publicity stakes.

    If he had retired from politics his memoirs would just be another ho hum rewriting of history from an ex-polly.

    Why would Talcum want the leadership now? I think he will do a Rudd and take over pre-christmas prior to the election.

  24. Turnbull is “only” 53. (I checked, his birthday is the same day as mine and the same year, eeek).

    Another scenario is that he stays a loyal deputy, lets Brenda get a swing against him at the next election, then takes over unopposed.

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