Labor needs to win four out of these five to be in a position to form a majority if John Bowler and Carol Adams (assuming she wins) support them.
Riverton. Going into the election with a 2.1 per cent margin, Labor’s Tony McRae has done remarkably well to remain in the hunt while some neighbouring seats were recording swings upwards of 6 per cent. Liberal candidate Mike Nahan has complained Labor pulled out all stops to retain this seat while fatally neglecting Jandakot and Southern River. Nahan nonetheless holds a 68 vote lead, which has widened by 18 since yesterday.
Wanneroo. This might be a similar story to the Riverton area in that Labor held back the tide in Joondalup, but were dumped in its safer neighbour Wanneroo. Labor member Dianne Guise led by six votes at the close of election night but it’s been one-way traffic ever since, Liberal candidate Paul Miles now believed to be ahead by 240. The swing was especially severe at the northern end of the electorate where the new development is concentrated: Carramar, Tapping and Banksia Grove accounted for 4908 booth votes compared with 2642 in 2005, and Labor’s share of that vote went from 61.4 per cent to 52.0 per cent. A similar story in this area helped the Liberals gain the corresponding seat of Cowan at the federal election.
Albany. Peter Watson is another Labor member who has performed outstandingly, picking up a 2.6 per to remain in the hunt in a seat that had been pulled from underneath him by redistribution. However, late counting has pared his lead back from 117 to 57 since Saturday. The Albany booths recorded an anti-Labor swing of just under 1 per cent, suggesting the swing to Labor in the Stirling parts of the electorate (where they played dead at previous elections) approached double digits. The Nationals vote was up from 5.1 per cent to 13.4 per cent, despite their nomination of a 20-year-old candidate.
Forrestfield. The Labor lead fell precipitously on Monday, but has since stabilised as counting proceeds slowly – with about 500 votes added today it’s gone from 115 to 131.
Collie-Preston. Labor’s Mick Murray looks home and hosed with a 421 vote lead and no trend against him.
Morley. The Liberal lead dipped intriguingly yesterday, but the rate slowed today with 691 new votes breaking only 356-335 to Labor, putting the lead at 375.