Labor needs to win four out of these five to be in a position to form a majority if John Bowler and Carol Adams (assuming she wins) support them.
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ELECTION NIGHT
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LATEST
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| ALP | LIB | Total | ALP | LIB | Total | ||
| Riverton | 8002 | 8034 | 16036 | 9534 | 9602 | 19136 | |
| Wanneroo | 7299 | 7293 | 14592 | 10769 | 11014 | 21783 | |
| Albany | 8182 | 8065 | 16247 | 9629 | 9572 | 19201 | |
| Forrestfield | 8177 | 7935 | 16112 | 9581 | 9450 | 19031 | |
| Collie-Preston | 8299 | 7883 | 16182 | 9909 | 9488 | 19397 | |
Riverton. Going into the election with a 2.1 per cent margin, Labor’s Tony McRae has done remarkably well to remain in the hunt while some neighbouring seats were recording swings upwards of 6 per cent. Liberal candidate Mike Nahan has complained Labor pulled out all stops to retain this seat while fatally neglecting Jandakot and Southern River. Nahan nonetheless holds a 68 vote lead, which has widened by 18 since yesterday.
Wanneroo. This might be a similar story to the Riverton area in that Labor held back the tide in Joondalup, but were dumped in its safer neighbour Wanneroo. Labor member Dianne Guise led by six votes at the close of election night but it’s been one-way traffic ever since, Liberal candidate Paul Miles now believed to be ahead by 240. The swing was especially severe at the northern end of the electorate where the new development is concentrated: Carramar, Tapping and Banksia Grove accounted for 4908 booth votes compared with 2642 in 2005, and Labor’s share of that vote went from 61.4 per cent to 52.0 per cent. A similar story in this area helped the Liberals gain the corresponding seat of Cowan at the federal election.
Albany. Peter Watson is another Labor member who has performed outstandingly, picking up a 2.6 per to remain in the hunt in a seat that had been pulled from underneath him by redistribution. However, late counting has pared his lead back from 117 to 57 since Saturday. The Albany booths recorded an anti-Labor swing of just under 1 per cent, suggesting the swing to Labor in the Stirling parts of the electorate (where they played dead at previous elections) approached double digits. The Nationals vote was up from 5.1 per cent to 13.4 per cent, despite their nomination of a 20-year-old candidate.
Forrestfield. The Labor lead fell precipitously on Monday, but has since stabilised as counting proceeds slowly – with about 500 votes added today it’s gone from 115 to 131.
Collie-Preston. Labor’s Mick Murray looks home and hosed with a 421 vote lead and no trend against him.
Morley. The Liberal lead dipped intriguingly yesterday, but the rate slowed today with 691 new votes breaking only 356-335 to Labor, putting the lead at 375.
cmon ciccio… let’s put a few dollars on it… 😆
i said ‘deal’ not ‘coalition’ 😉
ROFLMAO.
So NOW I know who it is 🙂
How is the family ? 🙂
^ getting old, mate… getting old…
how’s the folks ? your sisters ?
good plonk this year ? 😆
now, now lads…..back on topic 🙂
All good 🙂 Last time I saw you was at the Bird’s Wedding – I see Jim more often than you 🙂
Ask him about the power pole 🙂
“the bird” = GOLD 😆
^ sorry MO…
ah, yeah – the deal’s done…
and i’m moving to menzies to cash in the 700 million
bucks of services gap-teeth is about blow in the bush… 😆
Ahh, I think I’ve found the post shtuwang was referring to 🙂
According to the ABC site, Carol Adams is looking better in Kwinana… now got a 1.4% margin over Cook. Greens seem to be up slightly, which would do it.
But these are still Primary Votes – preferences won’t be distributed until Saturday as mentioned by Anthony Green.
That, plus the addition of postal votes, the final result will be interesting.
shtuwang :
Re the “Deal”, I’m happy either way, because as soon *D’enti Storti makes desicion which upsets the nats, oh boy 🙂
* Typing in the Bivongesi dialect is hard 🙂
The West reports a spill against Carpenter likely within weeks regardless of outcome – reckons McGowan and surprisingly Ripper are the front-runners, ahead of Roberts and MacTiernan. A “rank and file member” who “would not be named” – not much of a source, I wouldn’t have thought – talks of “a growing feeling the Nationals won’t do the deal”, of “most staff” having begun emptying their desks, and of Ripper likely to take over “just to steady the ship and within six to eight months they would be looking for a more serious leadership contender”. Quote: “No one is prepared at this stage to put their head in the hangman’s noose for Labor for the first six months in Opposition. Alannah MacTiernan has been approached but she doesn’t have much of an appetite for it. There’s no support within the party – she’s running around making some noises but that’s it”. Another “Labor insider” says: “No one seriously thinks that the Natinoals will do the deal with us”.
Another report says “growing speculation last night that Nationals leader Brendon Grylls would secure a ministerial portfolio to oversee his party’s ambitious royalties for regions plan under a new deal being negotiated with two major political parties” (remembering the ridiculously low bar this paper sets on the newsworthiness of “speculation”). He says a ministry would be conditional on him maintaining “independence”. A month ago he was ruling out the possibility.
[a ministry would be conditional on him maintaining “independence”]
lol how do you maintain independence with a ministry?
Gonna be a bit like herding cats if the Libs form a coalition with the NATS and independents. Especially given the hatred there must exist between a few of them and given they have some friends on the other side. You would be looking at 30/29? or 31/28.
The potential is there for the Liberals reputation to take a battering as the spite leaks out. Certainly make for an entertaining government.
As I’ve said, The West are talking up the Libs with all this speculative talk. Mind you my semi paesano (our parents are from neighbouring villages) has basically confirmed what was reported by William.
But unless Grylls is a good actor, my gut instinct is still on a Labor/Nats Alliance.
Is that the hard copy West? I ain’t seeing it online.
Sounds to me like the West is getting spooked and trying to stop the Nats siding with Labor. Devious, slimy paper that it is.
Of course it’s the dead tree version, and The West is getting spooked – How dare that Hillbilly Grylls help the very party we tried so damn hard to get rid of. 🙂
Frank can i ask you where you base your Assumptions he seemd preety much 50 50 to me he wants the best deal but i reckon his mind has not been made up due to the fact he is bringing the deal to the partys state council which is the entire lay party and i doubt alot of them could stomach a labor/nat government
Especially Max trenorden
http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2008/09/08/2358450.htm
go to that link its abc stateline profile on grylls and it states that max had big objections to being inderpedant and he was even willing to run as an independant. now i no your a labor man but you cant let that block your vision clearly the libs are in a better place to form government with them Especially with the prospect of liberals greens blocking royalties for regions
grylls may want to go with labor but he has to get approval from his party first and alot of the lay party would not even stomach labor unless it was real attractive but the libs will offer exacally what labor is so it will come down to the upper house and how damaged a labor government is
Maybe something like Winston Peters in New Zealand? His party supports the minority Labour govt, and he’s a minister, but not in cabinet… whatever that means. NZ politics confuses me.
Max is one of the Dinosaurs I mentioned earlier 🙂
Just face it, Brendan will side with the party who has the most lower house seats, and at this tage it ain’t the Libs, who will be struggling to find a speaker and still have the numbers.
Brendan will overrule the Lay Party there is precedent with SA and he’s campaigned on NOT being aligned to the Libs, hence the larger vote – he capitualtes and those progressives who voted to dissaccociate from the Libs will punish the Nats at the Ballot Box.
Anyway, Mad Max is in the Upper house.
but the speaker can cast a vote if the vote is tied so if its 29 29 he can exersise the deciding vote
but frank grylls has said in the public that all new members of the upper house will have a decide aswell as lower house members thats why he wants to wait till the weekend and the lay party is having a say which will have an impact on there choice no member of parliment wants to lose preselection do they
But the final decision is Grylls 🙂
And I’m sensing he will follow his mentor in South Australia and the fact he’s been talking to alan Carpenter both informally and Formally for over a year means that he will side with Labor.
[but frank grylls has said in the public that all new members of the upper house will have a decide aswell as lower house members]
sheesh that sounds like a bit of a mess
not really so lets say grylls gets told by his state council not to go with labor and he does he would infuriate his party and the other lower house members and carps may just become premier with just one nat grylls you have got to rember that there is only one nat in south australia and she formed government with other inderpendants and the labor government was in its first term this one is going inot its third with alot of baggage which grylls will have on his mind fine he keeps labor in for 4 more years then they suffer a huge landslide and the libs manage to form on there own the best thing for labor would be to go into oppostion have a leadership change that leader grooms wyatt for a couple of yrs then he vs the lib nat government and will probaly win if labor dont fall apart in the meantime the last government to win unexpecally in wa was tonkins and he got booted out in one terms so could the libs
While I’m hoping that Brendan does side with Labor (and watch the Libs stab Barnett in the back and cntinue the infighting) if it goes the other way, we’ll still see the same thing 🙂 Especially when all the big ticket items promised by the Libs get tweaked to benefit “the cockies”.
yikes, a fullstop would be nice…
How would the Nats get all members of the upper house together, when they don’t know who they are and won’t for weeks? They definitely have two in Agricultural and one in M&P, but they could get a third in Ag, one on SW and maybe a second in M&P.
Southernboy: for the love of god, use punctuation.
Speaking of the Tonkin Govt, these were the problems of the first 12 months.
http://www.ccentre.wa.gov.au/index.cfm?event=historiansReport
As I’ve said before, the Liberal and Labor need to form a Grand Alliance. Make the Nationals the official opposition and confine them to ancient tomes of history.
Wrote to quick I should have proof read Bird he has said it in the Media well 60% has been counted so maybe by Sunday 75 % has been done so they should know i agree with your Grand Alliance notion but it wont happen
I think for the Nats sake, they should grand-stand a lot, make it look like they are independent, and extract the best deal, and then join the Libs. They should also reserve the right to vote against any legislation proposed by the Libs. They will need this over the next term to keep in the spotlight and look to be independent.
As far as I know the SA Nat in cabinet is agreed to be able to break cabinet solidarity on issues, as was Michael Moore, an independent in the ACT Legislative Assembly when he entered cabinet a few parliaments ago. Having your pie and eating it too.
I think your grand alliance would be highly dysfunctional and make the Nats, as the opposition, look fantastic in comparison.
Colin Barnett has made his proposal in a letter to the Nats, saying that the Libs got 30,000 more primary votes than the ALP and stressing the support of the regions through the Royalties to Regions and the natural close philosophies the two parties share.
Who knows whether Carps will actually make his submission public like Barnett has??
RE 34.
what kind of cad makes their love letters personal.
oops i meant to say “makes their love letters public”
no matter the deal, it will collapse.
Then the Chinese Communist Party will take over what is left from what they don’t own already and WA will be another province of the peoples republic.
MWHAHAHAHAHA
The evil plan proceeds apace!
Barnett is not really trying.
And is sounding very shrill about to blow a gasket each time Grylls says something nice about Carpenter 🙂
This is going to backfire BIG time on the libs. The Nats don’t like being lectured to.
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/barnett-puts-weight-on-nationals-to-support-libs-20080912-4fdw.html
This would have to be one of the most drawn out election sagas I can remember. The vote counting almost seems irrelevant now… it’s the Nats show!
Sort of not the way to say things if your trying to develop a good working relationship. It ignores the NATS as being an independent entity and assumes it an arm of the Liberal party.
Can I once again reiterate how shamefully slow the vote counting is in WA!
Hell, at this rate, you’d think Robert Mugabe had seized control over the WAEC!
No 40
Correction: You wish it would backfire, Frank.
Fact of the matter is that if Nats voters wanted Labor in power they would have voted Labor directly!
Oh come on… Is anyone going to honestly tell me the electors of: Wagin, Central Wheatbelt, Blackwood Stirling and Moore would be happy for the ALP to remain in Government.
These electors would not vote Labor if you paid them… and that is what Carpenter is going to do if the Nats back the ALP to form government.
No, They wanted to give Labor a scare – if they wanted a Liberal Govt, they would’ve followed their HTV card to the letter 🙂
Do try harder 🙂 Country folk do NOT like being treated like mugs, as shat Colin Barnett is doing atm.
Barnett is behaving like he’s Premier already, the Nats haven’t yet signed up with the Liberals.
Which is Barnett’s problem, he actually makes Carpenter look like the shy, retiring type.
No 47
Rudd was acting like PM as Opposition Leader with all the summits and crap that he was holding. You blokes didn’t care then. Double standards and hypocrisy as usual. 😀
The Nats arent going to sign up with Labor because they are the least stable option.
Carps is going to be given the flick regardless of what Lispy wants. Thus Lispy will have to deal with another potential ALP leader, something he doesnt want to do. How can Lispy guarantee that Carps wont be challenged?
Second, the ALP have the CCC and Veranus Island Report coming out, and it cannot look good backing an incompetent and corrupt administration just for money. That would not go down well with Nat voters.
Third, how many Nat voters if you polled them would prefer a Labor or Liberal Government?? 80 – 20 id say in favour of the Libs. They need to respect their constituency, and the fact that they ran on Independence because they thought the Libs under Sniff would implode, which was wrong. The Libs pulled off an amazing result, and had it not been for the Libs reducing Labor to a rump the Nats would have been finished as a political force under a majority Labor Government as their original 17 seat nominal lead suggested.