WA election minus five days (Labor minus eight seats)

The Poll Bludger’s WA election guide has been reupholstered with predictions, campaign updates and a Legislative Council page. The upshot of the first of these is that I’m tipping Labor to emerge one by-election defeat from oblivion, with 30 seats out of 59. Predicted Liberal gains are Kingsley, Darling Range, Bunbury, Collie-Preston, Ocean Reef, Riverton, North West and Swan Hills, with no corresponding losses (such as Albany or Geraldton). Labor’s victory would thus depend on Jandakot, beneficiary of the Mandurah rail line and Fiona Stanley Hospital, and Joondalup, where a 4.4 per cent margin looks a bridge too far against a sitting member, despite talk of the northern suburbs as “tiger country”. However, it should be noted that further losses in Forrestfield, Southern River and Mount Lawley are not out of the question (the latter was a target of Labor’s campaign launch promise to build a rail line to Ellenbrook, reportedly pre-empting an announcement from the Liberals); that Morley turned up a surprise poll result on the weekend; and that Kimberley can be very unpredictable. I’m tipping the Liberals to lose Moore and Blackwood-Stirling to the Nationals, if indeed the latter can be said to be a Liberal rather than a Nationals seat; Janet Woollard to retain Alfred Cove, though not with great confidence; and Bill Marmion to recover Nedlands from Liberal-turned-independent member Sue Walker. That leaves the Liberals with 23 seats, the Nationals with four and two independents.

The upper house looms as a potential bonanza for the heretofore unrepresented religious parties: my guess is two seats for Family First, 15 for Labor, 14 for Liberal, two for the Nationals and three for the Greens. I expect Liberal-turned-Family First member Anthony Fels to win a seat in Agricultural along with two Liberal, two Labor and one Nationals, although Fels’ place could be taken by Mac Forsyth of the Christian Democratic Party if One Nation falls hard enough. I’m also tipping former Liberal deputy leader Dan Sullivan to win a seat in South West, joining two Labor, two Liberal and one Greens member, although the picture here is complicated – it could be right four, left two rather than three-all, and the Greens, Family First and Nationals are all in the picture. My tip in Mining and Pastoral is three Labor, two Liberal and one Nationals, though Labor’s third seat could go to the Greens and there could be a third Liberal instead of a National. In the metro area, I’m tipping three Labor, two Liberal and one Greens in East Metropolitan (it’s not impossible the latter seat could go to the CDP); three Liberal, two Labor and one Greens in North Metropolitan; and three-all in South Metropolitan.

Here are some of the electorate-level campaign updates from the election guide:

Collie-Preston (Labor 0.9%): Early in the campaign, Grahame Armstrong of the Sunday Times reported that Steve Thomas had “spoken in favour” of mineral sands miner Cable Sands while renting a house from them for $30 a week, which Thomas argued was all it was worth. Paul Murray of The West Australian claimed Labor had planted the story with Armstrong, a one-time press secretary to Geoff Gallop, whom he accused of running it even after it had been “factually destroyed by a letter from the company supplied to the newspaper before publication”.

Riverton (Labor 2.1%): The West Australian reported on Saturday that Labor was making a “last-ditch attempt” to hold the seat by promising the Leach Highway truck ban promised in 2005 would be fully operational by the end of the year. At present the government has implemented only the “stage” of the ban, targeting trucks longer than 19 metres. Riverton has been described during the campaign by party sources as “of concern” to Labor, and “in play”.

Bunbury (Labor 0.9%) and Albany (Liberal 2.3%): The Liberals have targeted two marginals in one hit with their promise to spend $225 million building a natural gas pipeline linking Bunbury and Albany.

And here’s me in Friday’s Crikey. An important point missing from the article below is that the Buswell website was developed by Labor while he was still leader – their error was in failing to recognise that the attack looked disproportionate after he’d quit.

With so much ammunition available to both sides, it comes as no surprise to find the WA election campaign dominated by negative advertising. Liberal mailouts have depicted Alan Carpenter projecting Brian Burke’s shadow onto a wall, while the six radio ads on the party’s website feature one Whingeing Wendy after another (in an interesting inversion of the situation in the party room, two-thirds of the voices are female).

For a party caught on the hop by an early election after a term consumed by leadership turmoil, such tactics might have been an operational necessity. The positive side of the Liberal campaign has won few admirers: policy announcements have been either re-heated or half-baked, with this week’s showpiece tax cut package criticised as both too modest and lacking in detail. The one television ad promoting Colin Barnett’s leadership qualities is either a conscious attempt to project an image of bland competence, or it indicates an even greater personality deficit than first feared. The party’s newer ad is more consistent with the tenor of the campaign, inviting viewers to spend a silent 30 seconds trying to think of “three good things Alan Carpenter’s Labor has done in eight years of boom”.

However, it’s been Labor’s tactics that have emerged as an election issue as the race enters the home stretch. On Wednesday the party launched an online dirt sheet called TruthAboutTroy.com, focusing on the colourful life and times of former leader and current Shadow Treasurer Troy Buswell. This was hardly the first time a made-to-order website had been used to attack political opponents, or even enemies within (most memorably in the case of the anti-Ted Baillieu website that was traced to Victorian Liberal Party headquarters). A Liberal-authorised federal election site called unionbosses.net continues to greet visitors with tales of “union thuggery”, “dirty tricks” and “Labor’s union links”, along with audio of former ALP member Dean Mighell employing intemperate language while addressing ETU members.

Part of the problem with Labor’s intensely personal attack on Buswell was that it arrived as concern over the campaign’s increasingly negative tone was ready to crystallise. It took only a short sharp talk radio backlash for Alan Carpenter to order that the site be pulled, with state secretary and safe seat candidate Bill Johnston sent out to face the music from a hostile Russell Woolf on ABC Radio. It was a different story earlier on in the campaign, when Labor took advantage of the Liberals’ unpreparedness to saturate Olympics schedules with ads promoting the government’s past achievements and future plans. With the website episode threatening to reinforce perceptions of arrogance and cynicism, it might be time for Labor to dust off its positive message in the final week of the campaign, shop-worn though it may be.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

449 comments on “WA election minus five days (Labor minus eight seats)”

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  1. GB & ESJ,

    William has made his prediction.

    If you can just leave aside the schoolboy taunts, isn’t it time you made yours? Let’s hear it.

  2. Well, William lives in WA and has his finger on the pulse so I will go with his prediction. For me it’s as good as any. I will reserve the right to change my mind however depending on further polling.
    Have I missed your prediction Winston? Oh, and stop kicking my dog.

  3. Frank (50)

    As I commented on a previous thresd, postal voting is now running completely out of control due to the ever increasing involvement of the parties in the postal voting process.

    If it gets much worse, the federal and state government may as well start considering conducting the whole poll through the post and save the cost of setting up polling places, as already happens in numerous local government elections.

  4. 16 William – yes, I did see your site describing the Scarborough electorate and that’s how I found The Poll Bludger. Apart from ads for Liza Harvey at bus stops and her tackle shop, she’s keeping a remarkably low profile around the electorate. There have been no “meet the candidate” sessions, unlike Scott Blackwell. The local ratepayers’ association has put out a leaflet about Liza Harvey, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, disputing statements she’s made on one of her cards. We really like this one: “protecting our seafront from overdevelopment”. Yes, only because from her viewpoint nothing should be higher than Ob City!

    Also on coastal high-rise: in today’s West was an article about more proposed coastal developed unwanted by residents: http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=95213

    I would like to take the opportunity to point out that although SOS Scarborough was disbanded, some of its ex-members and other residents have formed another group and are seeking an injunction in the Supreme Court against the City of Stirling, Western Australian Planning Commission, Alannah MacTiernan and others, to stop the proposed 8 storey development over a huge part of Scarborough. Although the City of Stirling has approved it, the State Govt has not. This group has found it incredibly difficult to get any media coverage about their fight – but then, who do you think the West gets most of its revenue from? I’m sure the Liberal Party has received lots of donations from the real estate industry and developers, and probably the ALP has too.

    For residents in this area, this state election is very interesting indeed.

    22 Diogenes – Brian Burke has a much more interesting look – he’s been spotted by some of his neighbours walking around with a parrot on his shoulder. Alas, no photographic evidence that I know of.

  5. I live in Perth as well, and seriously, i think a lot of people are going to have egg on their faces come saturday.

    Everyone has all gotten in a huff, all the conservative media is propping up a pathetic opposition, and Im just not feeling it on the ground.

  6. Helen oh please, stop acting like some NIMBYs actually represent the community, the City of Stirling passed its amendments with overwhelming approval from the local community. Most people in that area are in favor of development, and being pro development isnt going to hurt someones campaign

  7. Were you sitting on a fence when you wrote that GB?

    Happy to give my prediction. Little chnage. A small increase in Liberal vote. Some former Labor voters will vote Greens out of disillusion with Labor. But no substantial change in seats.

  8. Gary

    It wasn’t Rann’s fault that it was a disaster and the electorate realised that hence the increased majority. It has to be said that Peter Lewis holding the BOP was always going to be pretty unstable.

  9. I live in Perth as well, and seriously, i think a lot of people are going to have egg on their faces come saturday.

    Everyone has all gotten in a huff, all the conservative media is propping up a pathetic opposition, and Im just not feeling it on the ground.

    I totally agree, if you believed the comments on Perth Now, and The West and listeners to Talkback – The Libs would win in a landslide and Carps would lose his seat.

    In Swan Hills Graham Giffard has been having community meetings in all parts of the electorate, the mailouts have been 12 to 4 in his favour, and the local paper has at least a couple of ads per issue.

    And Sunday’s annoucement, plus cheaper Public Transport will be a boost to this electorate and hopefully the increase in busses to my part of the electorate will really help – atm on my street, there are 3 busses per day, and none on the weekends.

  10. 55 SeanofPerth – that’s interesting Sean. Usually if there is a large swing on you do feel it coming. I remember when Kennett was first elected, you could see it coming a mile off. Also when Cain was elected in ’82. I must admit though I didn’t see Bracks coming in ’99.

  11. 57 winston – yes I was because I really have no idea. I’m not over there and I can only go on what is being discussed here. As a matter of interest are you in WA?

  12. Make no mistake, I feel a lot of disillusionment on the ground with Carpenter and Co but there seems be a general consensus amongst the ‘typical’ voter that the Liberals are in no state to be in government.

  13. I live in Perth as well, and seriously, i think a lot of people are going to have egg on their faces come saturday.

    Everyone has all gotten in a huff, all the conservative media is propping up a pathetic opposition, and Im just not feeling it on the ground.

    I really hope you’re right, Sean. I’m seriously considering leaving the state if this bunch of clowns somehow win. The minority govt might actually be more painful than a majority Liberal… the Nats will then try for their ‘Royalties For Regions’, so no more Ellenbrook line etc, and what’s left gets privatised and ends up like Connex in Melbourne.

    As for Elizabeth Re, Helen… I doubt it. Labor and Greens are swapping second preferences, so Re’ll most likely finish behind Labor. Only way she’ll come second is if she gets a similar vote to Labor (say 30%) and a bunch of Greens voters ignore the HTV card. It’s possible, but I wouldn’t call it likely.

  14. I reckon the Libs complaining to the WAEC will backfire on them as it will prove that they have something to hide re Uranium Mining and Nuclear Waste and Transport of same, olus the fact that the News bulletins are re-inforcing Labor’s message will resonate more the voter than a stand alone TV ad which most people ignore.

  15. Frank – thanks for that link. I actually was curious to see if he lived in the electorate – regulars here will know its one of my bug-bears. Bill Johnston apparently lives in Vic Park and appears to be in the heart of Ben Wyatt’s electorate of the same name – ie Victoria Park. As I recall he had a bit of a tilt at that one, didn’t he? Oh, and in defence of William, his seat summary from your link doesn’t indicate either he, or Victoria Park, is in the seat of Cannington.
    In the interests of balance let me also point out that Mr Chorley doesn’t live in the seat either. In fact, only the Greens and CDP candidates (who are the only ones left) live in the electorate and both look like they’re in my little old suburb.

  16. Odds seem to be shortening. Sportingbet now offering $1.30 for a Labor win and $3.40 for Libs. Lasseters very similar. Surely there won’t be a Liberal victory? A few seats to the Liberals seems more likely.

  17. GB (60)

    You are right. When a big swing is on you can usually feel it.

    No-one saw the Kennett loss coming because the big swing happened in the regional areas where no-one was watching. Everyone just assumed the country people would vote for the conservatives the way they always had before.

  18. It seems that Perth Now have only just posted a story on today’s Policy announcements, but get it totally wrong re the complaint to the WAEC 🙂

    THE Liberals today attacked an ALP advertisement on uranium mining, complaining to the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) that it was “false and misleading”.

    Liberal state director Ben Morton has written to AEC commissioner Warwick Gately requesting the ad be taken off air.

    The Liberals support uranium mining, but Mr Morton says the ad falsely suggests they also support nuclear waste being dumped in WA.

    “The statement ‘WA doesn’t need nuclear waste’ is immediately followed by old and completely unrelated footage of Colin Barnett saying ‘Yes they do’,” Mr Morton says in his letter.

    Mr Gately says he is looking into the matter.

    http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24279421-2761,00.html

  19. PerthNow didn’t even run Labors public transport cheaper fares announcement today as well

    Not during the day, but just mentioned in that sotry I posted.

    I’ve noted that Perth Now are very selective in Election stories they do report on – stuff that ensures that Labor gets bagged on, and it’s always by the usual subjects.

    It pains me to say this, but The West’s Online Election section has been quite good and they have reported policy announcements from both parties as soon as they’ve been announced.

  20. And this is the extent of the Cheaper Fares story.

    On the campaign trail, Premier Alan Carpenter announced a re-elected Labor government would reduce the number of public transport fare zones from nine to five.peThe $17.5 million measure would make it cheaper for people in outer metropolitan areas to travel into the city, he said.

    How pathetic.

  21. Frank – do you have any more detail on that fare zone thing? I live smack bang on a zone boundary, so this will affect me. Have they just merged zones 1+2, 3+4 etc or similar?

  22. West watch.

    Page one lead: “ALP under fire over ‘green power’ claims”. “Alan Carpenter, who on the weekend trumpeted that a vote for Labor was a vote for renewable energy, plans to supply nearly eight times more additional electricity from stations powered by fossil fuels than environmentally-friendly sources. With the election campaign in its final week, Labor’s advertising has tried to (emphasis mine – PB) hammer home the message that it is the party for renewable energy. But figures provided by the Office of Energy show that Labor will add 1100 megawatts of power to the South-West grid by 2009 using coal and gas-fired stations”. Supporting opinion from the Greens and the WA Sustainable Energy Association, who must be pleasantly surprised to suddenly find themselves gaining such prominence in the paper.

    Page six: “Esperance lead report unlikely before election”. The timing of the report would seem to be in the hands of the consultants, though they could well be wary about causing the government avoidable discomfort at a sensitive time. Side column: “Carpenter won’t talk about plans for Roberts”. Smaller piece on Housing Industry Association criticising both sides.

    Page seven: Robert Taylor’s Campaign Sketch gives Carpenter a wide-ranging bollocking on uranium policy, concluding: “Later in the day, the Liberals complained to the WA Electoral Commission that Labor’s advertisements on uranium were completely (emphasis mine – PB) misleading, which they are. But as we’ve already discovered, truth is harder to dig up than a WA uranium mine in this campaign.”
    Continuation of page one lead with graphic illustrating the government has built more non-renewable than renewable power stations since coming to power. Small item on Buswell’s claim of “incredible hypocrisy” that Labor has criticised it for refusing to submit election promises to Treasury when Labor used a private firm in 2001.

    Page nine: “Police union wants ban on takeaway alcohol” (in Halls Creek).
    Smaller items: “Liberals match rail promise”; “Barnett reckless on call to scrap BHP royalties deal, says Ripper”. Opening para of the latter framed negatively for government (“Labor is refusing to reveal …”).

    Page 10: “McGowan won’t agree to sacking principals”, giving a measured account of McGowan’s refusal to commit to playing along with the Feds’ school standads proposal.
    Smaller but still substantial item on the Michelle Roberts heritage properties affair.

    Page 11: “The P-plate driver involved in the crash in which three teenagers died late Friday would not have been allowed to carry the young passengers if restrictions proposed three years ago had been adopted”.

    Page 20: Paul Murray on the inconsistency of Labor’s anti-uranium stance with the federal and other state parties.

    Page 22: Two letters criticising Labor over uranium; one pox-on-both-their-houses; one criticisng Barnett; one praising Labor on GM; two smaller anti-Labor letters.

  23. “West watch”

    Having read that through its obviously “fair and balanced” Liberral Party may as well hav written it , very little objectivity & one can not asume such data will not influence votes

  24. “Esperance lead report unlikely before election”. The timing of the report would seem to be in the hands of the consultants, though they could well be wary about causing the government avoidable discomfort at a sensitive time.

    Also because the Government is in Caretaker mode reports like this cannot be released.

  25. 56 SeanofPerth Says:
    “Helen oh please, stop acting like some NIMBYs actually represent the community, the City of Stirling passed its amendments with overwhelming approval from the local community. Most people in that area are in favor of development, and being pro development isnt going to hurt someones campaign.”

    SeanofPerth – how about you show me the evidence where the local community has overwhelming approved high-rise?

    And Sean, I know the work that Bill Stewart and Elizabeth Re have done for the community. All Liza Harvey seeks to do is to make a personal profit from her properties being turned into 8 storey buildings. She doesn’t give a damm for the community and sneers at residents’ concerns – I’ve heard her at meetings and read her letters to The Stirling Times.

    Liza Harvey will lose votes for the Liberals – but we have to wait until Saturday to see that. It is more likely that ALP will win, and not the Independent.

  26. Small item on Buswell’s claim of “incredible hypocrisy” that Labor has criticised it for refusing to submit election promises to Treasury when Labor used a private firm in 2001.

    This is Ripper’s reasoning according to WA Today.

    Mr Ripper said Labor had also used a private auditor when in Opposition.

    He told WAtoday.com.au that this was because the caretaker government provisions at the time meant any costings had to be submitted through the treasurer – then-Premier Richard Court – and “we weren’t going to give stuff through (Mr) Court”.

    However, those costings had been scrutinised by treasury on Labor coming into power and had been shown to be accurate.

    The costings were carried out by Rolf Gerritsen, a former Labor staffer who did not have any formal qualifications in accounting or economics.

    http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/ripper-tears-into-liberal-promises-20080901-4707.html

  27. SeanofPerth

    #80
    “lol, good old west watch, why dont they just say “Vote Liberal”’

    You’re right , but rhis method of “presenting” ‘news’ is intended to influence voters on basis its objective news reporting Reluctant to say this however cann’t help thinking sometimes that a ‘left’ version of ‘oz’ would be a counter weight to slanted Media

  28. Forgot to post this on sunday, but was wheeling past Miss Mauds in the Carilion and noticed their Beaqn Poll.

    As of Sunday approx 1pm the count was:

    Morning Tea Party – 61
    Democrats – 1
    Greens – 40
    ALP – 145
    Liberal – 180
    Nationals – 3
    Others – <20

    Note these are approximate figures.

  29. Ooo, that reminds me. They cleaned out the tubes at the Belmont Forum Miss Mauds, got a new poll going… last week sometime, the Greens had an almost full tube and were leading both Labor and the Liberals about 3 to 1 (didn’t see exact numbers, had heavy shopping bags); nothing to Democrats / Nationals / Other. Very interesting, especially in HSV jacket-wearing bogan hell. Either someone who works there was having some fun and games, or Alison Xamon is about to drag her #2 into the upper house with her.

    Ron: the ‘Morning Tea Party’ is separate. It’s all part of the cunning plan to make Miss Maud (yep, she’s a real person) premier. Just in time, too, what with Carpenter closing the bar at Parliament House… they can have OK coffee and overpriced cake instead. 😉

  30. William, why should it be so surprising that Morley is in play? Morley is essentially the new Ballajura, which was Liberal held until 2001, and marginal Labor before 2005. From your WA 2005 page, it seems a very lacklustre Liberal campaign blew the margin out above 13%. The new Morley takes in the better Liberal bits of Ballajura, cutting the margin by 4%, which would make it line-ball on 2001 figures.

    I’d say there’s more chance of the Liberals picking up Morley than some other seats lower on the pendulum like Mandurah and Balcatta. Certainly, there’s room for a rebound after the huge swing last time- it could be closer than the margin suggests.

  31. Also, I’d probably pick Collie-Preston to stay with Labor. Mick Murray is obviously a huge vote winner down that way; in 2005 he took a marginal seat and made it safe, against the trend. The redistribution has added areas where he (and Labor) have never campaigned before, so his strong personal vote plus more active party involvement should boost the notional margin by a few percent. It’s probably the opposite of Morley; I can see Labor holding it while losing ‘safer’ seats further up the pendulum.

  32. I can’t comment on the last WA election predictions, but I can on the last Federal Election predictions, and from what I saw, William Bowe did pretty bloody well. (courtesy Bryan Palmer’s Oz Politics)

    William Bowe (Poll Bludger)
    84 seats ALP

    Simon Jackman
    54% ALP (+/-2%)
    88 seats ALP

    Malcolm Mackerras
    89 seats ALP

    Peter Brent (Mumble)
    90 seats ALP

    Possums Pollytics
    54.9% ALP
    94 seats ALP

    Geoff Lambert
    55.5% ALP
    97 Seats ALP
     

  33. Sean of Perth

    Of course you are not feeling it on the ground, if you can feel it at a La bore Party Launch, Labor might finish 3rd behind the green

    Is the Snifferals really just playing dead in WA? I guess Carpenter’s backflip on staying the course had left the Snifferals without policy, so it has become just a referendum on Carpenter

  34. Just how accurate are these bean polls? Whenever I go to Miss Maud’s during election season I always notice the Liberal column is the highest – surely the somewhat older age demographic that frequents MM would affect this?

    Also, the Liberals column is always higher in the Garden City Miss Maud’s than in the Carillion one. The Muffin Break bean poll in GC in contrast had the greens out in front! Quite bizarre really…

  35. William, you still have Moore showing as Liberal retain rather than National gain. For the record, I agree with you; the Nats to end up with 4 lower house and 2 upper house seats

  36. Helen (number 12), You support for Independents in Scarbourough and Carine is worthy but your facts slightly wrong… While the Liberal Candidate is pro-highrise, the ALP candidate for Scarborough is certainly not pro-highrise.

  37. William and others,

    Allow me to assure you that Jandakot is gorrrn as far as Labor is concerned, and Forresfield is line ball. I’d be surprised if Labor lost North West though.

    Any thoughts from anyone on John Bowler’s chances in Kalgoorlie?

  38. 89 mr orange – letterbox drops from candiates: lots from Scott Blackwell, in fact, 3 items yesterday: calendar, card with local school promises and brochure with pictures and statements from various locals giving their support for him. On all his advertising, the “Dr” is very prominent and he’s “caring for Scarborough”. I read somewhere that he doesn’t even live in the suburb any more. As a family, we certainly don’t care for him as he caused injury to a family member that resulted in several operations and permanent disability. Definitely NOT getting a cross on our voting slip. A previous posted letter included a “meeting your local candidate” document, although this was sent after the first all-day session at Westfield Innaloo (how much did that cost the ALP?). This paper was received only 2 days before the 2nd session, for which you had to RSVP – I rang the number and left a message but nobody called me back. Very obvious that the ALP are spending up big in Scarborough electorate.

    Brochure from Elizabeth Re yesterday and also the Greens Senator Scott Ludlam about a light rail network for Perth. All of the above 3 candidates have contact details on their documents.

    By contrast, none of Liza Harvey’s stuff has contact details – if she wins, that’s an ominous signal for the electorate: she doesn’t want to hear from us! Liza Harvey has told us about her strong plan for Scarborough – 5 statements that have been refuted by the ratepayers’ association in their document. Nothing from Liza Harvey for almost a week.

  39. The ALP will almost certainly, on present trends, lose – Kingsley
    – Darling Range
    – Bunbury
    – Ocean Reef
    – Jandakot
    – Riverton

    Labor will also have real line ball fights on its hands in – Swan Hills (this is back in the undecided column, courtesy of a train)
    – Forrestfield
    – Mt Lawley
    – Collie-Preston
    – Joondalup

    On top of those, Labor are an outside chance of losing – Morley
    – Kimberley

    The Liberal Party’s only real chance of a loss is in Kalgoorlie, and that would most likely be to Bowler, although Labor could jag it. Much more likely loss to Bower though.

    So here’s my prediction….and its a massive limb I’m going to go out on. The ALP to lose Forrestfield, Collie Preston and Swan Hills, Bowler wins Kalgoorlie. so now you have ALP 29, Lib/Nat/Con Ind 29….the balance of power goes to Bowler, or its a conservative government.

    Bye bye Labor, in a cliffhanger….watch Forrestfield, the election will be won and lost in that seat.

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