Yesterday’s papers: week two

Here’s two subscriber-only pieces I wrote for Crikey last week. The first is from Friday, and is showing its age only insofar as Centrebet is now offering $3.50 on a Liberal win.

For all that’s been said about the lessons of Northern Territory Labor’s near-defeat a fortnight ago, expectations that Alan Carpenter’s government will be comfortably returned in Western Australia are dying hard.

Saturday’s Newspoll showed 61 per cent of respondents expecting a Labor win, compared with 21 per cent for the Liberals. However, the poll put Labor’s two-party lead at just 51-49, and it was echoed by a 50-50 Westpoll result published the same day in The West Australian. This doesn’t seem to have impressed betting agency Centrebet, which has not revised its starting price of $4.25 for a Liberal win.

With just over a fortnight to go, Labor is taking to such perceptions with an axe. The process began on Wednesday when Alan Carpenter told television reporters his party faced a “knife-edge political situation”, and said he “always believed that we could lose”.

It was ratcheted up a notch yesterday morning when the ABC was told Labor had abandoned its most marginal seat of Kingsley to direct resources where it still had a chance. “Concern” was also expressed over Ocean Reef, Swan Hills, Riverton and Jandakot. The latter was particularly interesting, as just two weeks ago the party was trumpeting a 56-44 lead fuelled by gratitude over the Mandurah railway and Fiona Stanley Hospital projects.

Then came the real bombshell, courtesy of Geof Parry on the Channel Seven news: leaked polling across the five seats showed a swing to the Liberals of 7 per cent, which if consistent would give them 32 seats out of 59 along with another three for the Nationals. This was accompanied by findings that 57 per cent of respondents still expected Labor to win, while only 25 per cent thought the Liberals “ready to govern.

Later in the evening, a Labor candidate using a pseudonym wrote on my blog that the party’s strategy group was “cr-pping itself” over the data, which was “very real” and “not a tactic to scare voters”. Particular concern was expressed over the strategists’ failure to scotch the snowballing perception of Alan Carpenter as “arrogant” — a theme which has developed a life of its own since the early election was announced a fortnight ago.

When respondents to Saturday’s Westpoll survey were asked unprompted to name the single issue that would most influence their vote choice, fully 10 per cent responded with some variation on “Govt/Carpenter arrogance”. The apparent potency of this message has not been lost on the Liberals: the word “arrogant” appears twice, delivered with carefully modulated emphasis, in their latest 30-second radio advertisement.

Of course, the polling leak and accompanying talk of internal panic might just be a ruse to boost Labor’s winning margin rather than avert defeat. On the other hand, the shift to the Liberals recorded in last weekend’s polls was entirely consistent with the anti-Troy Buswell effect that was well understood to be at work in the preceding surveys. We have evidence now that is not merely anecdotal that the perception of arrogance is starting to bite. And those generous odds from Centrebet are still there for the taking.

The second is from Monday: I should add that Wendy Duncan is a better chance than I believed at the time, as she has done very well on the preference tickets.

The range of issues turned up by state elections these days (law and order, hospital waiting lists, water supply) is usually so narrow it can be hard to tell one campaign from the next. Two concerns which don’t often rate a mention are equal opportunity and sexual harassment.

It is an indication of the extraordinary state of affairs in the WA Liberal Party that Labor is pursuing these unconventional lines of attack in its first negative advertising of the state election campaign. Commercial radio audiences are being targeted with ads in which a young girl declares her aspiration to grow up in “a place where women have a voice in the community” and “a society which respects women”. An older female voice then breaks the bad news that the Liberal Party “boys’ club” has “only one woman running in their held seats”, and that “Liberal Shadow Treasurer Troy Buswell thinks it’s funny to play with a woman’s bra in public and to sniff a woman’s chair”.

The two issues are closely related. As well as making him poison in the eyes of women voters, Buswell’s heavily publicised indiscretions clearly presented a stumbling block to the party’s efforts to recruit female candidates. His emergence as leader in January also coincided with the departure of the party’s existing two women in the lower house. Shadow Tourism Minister Katie Hodson-Thomas announced her retirement plans before entering the party room meeting that confirmed Buswell as leader, having earlier complained he had subjected her to “inappropriate” remarks in the presence of male colleagues (she admits to regretting the decision now her long-standing ally Colin Barnett is back at the helm). Shadow Attorney-General Sue Walker quit the party a fortnight later, citing factionalism and her lack of “trust” in Buswell. Walker will attempt to hold her seat of Nedlands as an independent against Bill Marmion, who won Liberal preselection as the only male nominee in a field of four.

One failure at least could be put down to misfortune rather than carelessness. When Barnett announced his retirement in February, the unopposed preselection nominee for his blue-ribbon seat of Cottesloe was Deidre Willmott, policy director for the Chamber of Commerce and Industry and a front-bench shoo-in. Willmott of course was compelled to stand aside when Barnett returned to the leadership a fortnight ago, and could not be persuaded with alternative offers of an upper house seat or a shot against Sue Walker in Nedlands. She has now been appointed chief-of-staff to Barnett and will no doubt take his place in Cottesloe if the Liberals lose the election, although this is not openly acknowledged.

When nominations closed on Friday, it was revealed the Liberals had managed a grand total of six female lower house candidates out of 58. Current polling suggests this will translate into two elected members out of about 24, both marginal seat newcomers with no obvious claim to a position on the front-bench. The situation is only slightly better in the upper house, where the most likely result will be four Liberal women out of 15. The Nationals too are likely to emerge with an all-male complement of three or four lower house MPs plus one in the upper house, unless their existing female MLC Wendy Duncan can pull off an unlikely win in Mining and Pastoral region.

The best Barnett has been able to make of the situation is to offer a front-bench position to Liz Constable, the long-standing independent member for the naturally Liberal western suburbs seat of Churchlands. Constable has been a notable presence alongside Barnett on the campaign trail, despite not yet having had much to say relating to her nominated portfolios of public sector management and government accountability.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

178 comments on “Yesterday’s papers: week two”

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  1. 40 Damien, just noticed your comment. Probably one of the better titles of a Bill I have ever seen. It was also interesting that Buswell was this afternoon addressing some Uranium gung ho conference at the same time Carpenter was making his announcement. Good luck on the sixth, it looks like being a great day.

  2. Re Carps’ uranium statement – is this Richo ’96 over again… get disgruntled ALP voters to go Greens but put Labor second?

  3. 50 “Two hundred and 50 million dollars is a major commitment that will bring down rates of tax … and they are in addition to whatever tax concessions have been included in the budget forward estimates,” Mr Barnett said today.

    Hope Barnett hasn’t got any minor commitments if this is the case. It seems the only winner here is the Liberal Party via the $400 000 donation given to them by this lot.

  6. I’m in Riverton – supposedly a key, highly contested marginal electorate.

    But you wouldn’t know it.

    I’ve had stuff from Labor, Greens and Christian Democrats. Nothing from the Libs yet – I couldn’t even tell you the name of their candidate.

    Also no signs up in anyone’s front yard. Normally you’d see quite a few by now in an election campaign. (There are quite a few signs up in nearby Alfred Cove though)

    Most boring election ever.

    Carpenter will surely win because no one sees any reason to change.

  7. The Libs, as expected really, have been caught on the hop. This is showing up in a number of ways obviously judging by comments here.

  9. 56 HoV:

    [ In February 2008 the Liberals preselected Mike Nahan, the high-profile former executive director of the Institute of Public Affairs. Nahan said he was reconsidering in early May because the Troy Buswell chair-sniffing incident had made it “almost impossible” for him to win the seat, before confirming his intention to stay in the race a week later. ]

    I love the way the right-wing ‘think tanks’ have such neutral sounding names, don’t you? Anyway, that’s your guy… he probably doesn’t need your vote. He’s a member of the good ol’ boys club, so he’s got all the votes from those nice houses on the river in Rossmoyne. Political Hack with a capital H.

    Meanwhile, I’m in Belmont (safe Labor seat), and I’ve got similar to William – the postal vote thing from Labor a couple of weeks ago, and that’s it. I don’t watch much telly, so if it wasn’t for this website I probably wouldn’t even remember there was an election on.

  10. I’m in the seat of Ocean Reef

    I’ve gotten heaps of stuff from the local labor candidate in the mail, louise durack. – and she has door knocked.

    Have received zilch from the Lib guy, except some small ads in the local rag.

  14. Swan Hills (THAT retiring Member – she of the Shirtlifting incident) 🙂

    Letter from Lib Candidate/Postal vote form.

    Postal Vote Form from ALP.

    Flyer from ALP Candidate

    Lib Flyer posted earlier.

    Letter from ALP Candidate addressed to Parents re Free Public Transport for Pensoners/Seniors.

    And that’s it.

  17. I’ve noticed both Ocean Reef candidates are good-looking 28 year olds (Labor female, Liberal male).

    Considering doing Political Perfect Matching William ? 🙂

  19. Ive spoken to Louise Duracks campaign manager (Ocean Reef)

    He sounded quite upbeat and more than happy to receive help, they seem to be well resourced

    On another note, i got one of those whats carpenter hiding from flyers in the mail today with the burke behind the flip thing.

    Full of dribble on the back about crime, power etc, however i think it is quite effective

  20. On another note, i got one of those whats carpenter hiding from flyers in the mail today with the burke behind the flip thing.

    Full of dribble on the back about crime, power etc, however i think it is quite effective

    Is it the same dribble which is here:

  23. Darn – it was Richard Court’s government, in the 90’s. He beat Carmen Lawrence in 1993 and got beaten by Geoff Gallop in 2001. Son of Charles (premier in the 70’s), brother of Barry (current Liberal Party president, Buswell’s biggest fan), etc. When he got beaten, he retired and tried to get Julie Bishop to run in his nice safe seat and become the opposition leader… I remember that being about as popular as a fart in a spacesuit.

  28. I am in the new and safe seat of Cannington.
    So far I have received:
    A flyer from Bill Johnston and
    A flyer from Ryan Chorley.
    I think I told you all I got a phone survey about a month ago – not completely sure but certainly sounded like it was ALP funded.
    That’s it.
    What irked me is that both the phone poll and the ALP flyer referred to Bill Johnston as ‘a senior member of Alan Carpenter’s team’ (can’t remember the exact wording). Now – I can’t say that State Secretary isn’t but I took it to refer to a senior member of his PARLIAMENTARY team…
    On the other hand – being very close to Riverton I have seen several ads in local papers from Nahan and McRae… just between all of us here I pity the poor buggers in Riverton – Mike Nahan is probably bright but 1) he’s a septic, and 2) he comes across as a bit obnoxious IMHO. On the other hand, you’ve got a failed, dodgy wannabe who comes across as quite self-obsessed (again IMHO). (While we’re on that – what exactly is the line between corrupt and mistaken when it comes to dealings with Burke and Grill??? The same Carps who made his position on those lobbyists last night was standing right next to McRae in the flyers and ads… hypocritical???)
    What worries me much more is that my oldest child came home from school today with a thick glossy brochure paid for not by party funds but authorised and paid for by the WA taxpayer trumpting the achievements of WA public schools and with McGowan’s mug on the inside cover. This is patently political advertising and should be a) paid for by the ALP, and 2) be properly authorised under the Electoral Act. (Apparently its the third issue – haven’t seen any previously though).
    This seems to me to be a clear breach of the Caretaker Conventions…

  29. Ok – clarification on the EDWA publication. Although it is very difficult to tell, it seems like it might have been published in July (the only way I worked that out is because of a competition close date…).
    Why is my kid bringing it home now? Who knows – it wouldn’t be the first time something got lost or delayed but it would be the first time it was delayed for over a month! Seems unlikely but, who knows.
    Still, it makes me wonder – why is EDWA doing this and what must it be costing? Do they think they can reverse the trend to private schools by printing glossy brochures?

  30. What worries me much more is that my oldest child came home from school today with a thick glossy brochure paid for not by party funds but authorised and paid for by the WA taxpayer trumpting the achievements of WA public schools and with McGowan’s mug on the inside cover. This is patently political advertising and should be a) paid for by the ALP, and 2) be properly authorised under the Electoral Act. (Apparently its the third issue – haven’t seen any previously though).
    This seems to me to be a clear breach of the Caretaker Conventions…

    I believe it’s the Department of Educatiuon and Training’s “School Matters” publication which comes out once a month during Term time and thus is permitted under the Caretaker Conventions if it was first distributed prior to the Election was called.

    http://www.det.wa.edu.au/education/schoolmatters/deadlines.html

  32. Re The Police Union.

    But UnionsWA has received an unexpected boost from the conservative police union, which has decided to join the body after being unaffiliated for about 40 years.

    West Australian Police Union president Mike Dean said his union was not aligned to any political party but he feared a Liberal state government could bring back individual contracts for police officers.

    These eroded pay and conditions for many junior and middle-ranked officers under the Court Liberal government in the 1990s, he said.

    “I would be very, very concerned if they brought that back,” he said.

    The police union’s affiliation with UnionsWA is not complete and it has not been asked to help pay for the anti-Liberal advertisements, which will air on the three commercial television networks during the evening news and prime-time programs.

    I wonder how this arrangement will affect the Libs Mandatory Sentecing Bill for Assaulting Public Officers, which even though were drafted in consultation with the union, the union do not support the jailing of Juveniles.

  33. The pathetic Teachers union refused to contribute

    No doubt the PLATO faction would’ve had a say in this – considering the Bribe they got from Colin

  34. Speaking of Unions, I’m surprised the Libs haven’t brought out the Kevin REynolds/Joe McDonald ads and Kevvie’s link to Burke 🙂

  36. How many days til Barnett does one of his classic royal cock-ups?

    It can’t be too far away now?

    I predict it will happen when the full costings are released like in 2005 🙂

  37. BTW I noticed Ripper say in some article today that the Liberals had made $3.5b in commitments and Labor only $800m, i don’t think that’s quite true, but Labor has definitely made small commitments in the last few days

    eg sunday libs $350m, lab $70m
    mon libs $50m lab $13.5m
    tue libs $250m, lab $7.5m

    Is Carps saving up for something big or are they going to portray the libs as reckless?

  38. Today’s West.

    Page one: Photo story blasting Carpenter for flying to Albany to discuss renewable energy, with an extra serve for “another back flip, this time on uranium”. Concluding line says Barnett “could not say how” his tax cut promise would be costed. Lead story says WA Police Union calls for violent juvenile criminals to be “named and shamed”; says Jim McGinty, “who has been the target of much of the public outcry over the so-called truth-in-sentencing laws”, would not return calls.

    Page four: Robert Taylor reiterates the attack on Carpenter over the Albany visit. Large two-column graphic savages Carpenter over “U Mining U-Turn” and “Other backflips”. Fran Logan hammered again over the Varanus Island FOI request that was yesterday’s front page lead.

    Page five: “Labor does U-turn on uranium: Carpenter stuns industry and opponents by backing mining ban legislation just weeks after claiming it was not needed”. Smaller items on Institute of Public Affairs call for rail network and electricity generation privatisation, and shortening of bookies’ odds on the Liberals.

    Page six: Negatively framed lead on Barnett’s tax cut promise; Police Union criticises Liberals’ “school-based police officers” policy.

    Page seven: Gary Adshead colour piece on low debate ratings. WACOSS accuses both parties of failing the homeless and disadvantaged; Greens want Labor solar energy payment plan expanded.

    Page 20: Alston cartoon depicts naked Premier with small willy.

    Page 21: Wide-ranging attack on Labor by Tony Rutherford, mostly on education, with a small number of milder criticisms plus some praise for the Liberals.

    Page 22: Generally balanced set of letters to the editor, but headline reads “The Labor party has lost its way”.

  39. William,

    In other word the usual high standard – NOT of our only daily paper which is used as the benchmark for morning talkback radio.

  40. The West is certainly ramping up its anti-Labor campagin

    Todays (tuesday) was particuarly bad with the “things you wont find out before the election” scare piece and assorted crap about veranus

  41. William re Inst. of Pub. Affairs calls for the rail network to be privatized, is that as in the passenger railway system or freight railway system?

  43. William re Inst. of Pub. Affairs calls for the rail network to be privatized, is that as in the passenger railway system or freight railway system?

    Hmm, considering that the Liberal Candidate for Riverton was an employee of said think tank, the ALP Riverton Campaign should be turning up the heat on this.

  45. Privatization goes down like a lead balloon in this state – hopefully someone will put the pressure on barnett to rule it out or something – and watch him stumble

  46. Privatise the trains? What the hell…..? Right, for the first time this election campaign, one of the political parties (or associated hangers-on) has managed to make me angry. Grrr. Sic ’em, Allanah.

    Speaking of which… here’s the first paragraph of the piece on the debate:

    [The “worm” doesn’t like senior Labor Minister Alannah MacTiernan. In fact, the mere mention of the word infrastructure, one of two key areas in Ms MacTiernan’s portfolio, was enough to send the worm burrowing at last night’s election debate. ]

    http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=94076

    I’m not even sure what they’re trying to do here. Are they trying to say Western Australians don’t like infrastructure? The worst you can say about that word is that it’s hard to spell and pronounce.

  47. Privatization goes down like a lead balloon in this state – hopefully someone will put the pressure on barnett to rule it out or something – and watch him stumble

    And voters should remember that if the Bus Drivers do decide to go on strike later this week – even though the Dispute is with Transperth, the drivers are employed by Bus Companies which were privatised by the Court Government.

  48. I’m not even sure what they’re trying to do here. Are they trying to say Western Australians don’t like infrastructure? The worst you can say about that word is that it’s hard to spell and pronounce.

    Well since the West have been trying to paint Allanah as the Devil incarnate since Day One, and have been a vocal opponent of Public Transport, in particlular the Perth To Mandurah Rail line, but trains in general – I think they’re trying to perpetuate the myth.

    though the bit about Allanah is in this video clip.

    http://www.westtv.com.au/?vxSiteId=43c6a3c7-abf1-4c32-b98d-c27f8fa83360&vxChannel=News&vxClipId=1416_WAU1428&vxBitrate=300

  49. Ah, I see. Funny thing about the ‘worm’, though… it was flat for the most part of both speeches, but slightly lower for Carpenter (and went that way as soon as they gave him the mike). Makes me think there was just slightly more Liberal sympathisers in the audience – even one extra would skew it, in a sample of 30.

    As for the next clip, ‘Stubborn Carpenter’… geez. Robert Taylor sounding pretty much exactly like an opposition member, not a journo. Hmph. I remember again why I don’t read this paper any more…

  50. And according to Ten News, the Debate rated 250,000 fewer viewers than last election.

    There are 2 reasons for this.

    The first was that Monday’s Debate was screened between 6.30-7.30pm, while the 2005 one was between 7.30-8.30pm.

    And the Second most important reason was that this debate was shown on the 4th rated Ch 9, instead of Top rating Ch 7.

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