ACNielsen: 55-45

The Fairfax broadsheets today bring the latest ACNielsen poll of federal voting intention, showing Labor’s lead up to 55-45 compared with 54-46 last month. Labor’s primary vote is steady on 43 per cent with the Coalition down one point to 39 per cent. The poll also finds Peter Costello to be favoured as Liberal leader by 56 per cent of the 1400 respondents compared with 27 per cent for Malcolm Turnbull and 17 per cent for Brendan Nelson. In head-to-head terms, Costello leads Turnbull 49-35 and Turnbull leads Nelson 47-31. Worst of all for Nelson, his approval rating is down from 36 per cent to 31 per cent and his disapproval is up from 46 per cent to 53 per cent. Hat tip to poll watcher extraordinaire James J.

UPDATE: The latest weekly Essential Research survey shows Labor maintaining its lead of 58-42. Also featured are questions on pensions, industrial relations and Australia’s performance at the Olympics.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

315 comments on “ACNielsen: 55-45”

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  1. Gary

    Think Wayne Swan deserves an anormous plaudit regarding rates Banks set a presedent of ‘premium’ rise last time , money is dear , there excuse still there and his public stanse has saved mortgage borrowers

    Unfortunately , banks can do what they want , and even there ‘public announsement they won’t keep some of there claimed overseas higher cost of funds , implys there future right to do so But at least Wayne Swan has obviuosly done hard yards behind doors , rather than cossies 15 second mock outrage , befor he went for his capachino Alos Swan has made bar hardar to break in future

  2. Centre, I said right from the start that if the Dems were mad enough to nominate Obama that McCain would win, and I still expect to be proved correct. I don’t know when you first said it, but I’d be surprised if it was before me.

    I of course disagree with you about Clinton. She would have defeated McCain easily. The country wants to elect a Dem president, but only if they are given a candidate with national security credentials, of which Obama has none. His empty, self-congratulatory campaign, culminating in his incredibly stupid and vainglorious Berlin speech, has been a disaster so far, and McCain settled any doubts about his capacity at the Saddleback debate. McCain is now within a few points in the polls, he is ahead in key states like FL, OH and MO, and is closing the gap in others like MI and IA.

    In terms of Australia, we would be much better off with McCain, who has good free trade credentials, although with a protectionist Dem Congress we will still get shafted.

  3. Adam I’m not to sure about who was first. Maybe you are right. William would have all past records anyway.

    SNIP: Centre, perhaps you didn’t mean for it to come out the way it did, but your comment here was in highly dubious taste – PB

  4. 250 Centre – I wouldn’t claim victory on either of those two fronts just yet if I were you. The one thing people do remember is when you get it wrong afterall the boasting.

  5. Does anybody know whether the polls are factoring in any changes to the pattern of turn out? In particular, would a significantly increased turnout of African American voters make enough difference?

  6. [The latest EV survey is telling the story very clearly. Obama’s support is just drifting away.] is showing an entierly different picture. I’d say it’s somewhere in between the two, Obama still with a handy lead.

  7. Hav always thought it would be close over there and it is , whereas with at least 2 of my 3 preferred fair dinkum ‘left’ type options (Gore Clinton & Edwards) those ‘left’ pollies would ALREADY hav massive poll leads over McCain right now …simply because people want to get of th hideous fool Bush

    Reality is voters ar seeing 2 candidates appearing not far apart whereas on Gilligans Obama is a ‘savour’ , Gore & Clinton old style dirty politcs , and Mccain as Bush 111 incarnate

    My view was Gore Clinton Edwards ar fair dinkum ‘left’ , Obama a phony Turnbull opposing universl healthcare & Kyoto ratication , and McCain a maverick Howard ( but NOT a Bush 111)

    Biggest impact will be trade , where Adam & I share diferent view on McCain but we both agree Obama is clearly a firm protectionist McCain has a history of doing deals with Democrats to get legislation passed , is maverick , can be very consevative & expressed freetrade & protection , & presently Obama has forsed him to make more protectionist coments

    Democrats control both houses of Congress , but Presidents still carrry weight , but given both candidates recent comments & th contracting US economy all adds up to our farmers etc getting ripped off even worse than current

    Glitz and glitter of razamatzz US politcs nad our Kevin has to deal with these

  8. It would be interesting to see if the ex-Liberal contingent of the Pineapple Party will be prepared to die in the trenches with hayseed hanging from the mouth defending irrigation rights. Somehow I don’t think so.

  9. This name Liberal & Nats names business is becoming clearer to me by day between NT and Q’ld

    In NT we hav “Country Liberal Party” , wishing to be “Liberal Country Party” but didn’t get around to changing name before election Whilst in Q’ld till June we had “National Party” and a seperate “Liberal Party” Now we hav a merged “Liberal Country Party” plus a proposed new “Liberal Party”

    Now when they all get to Canberra they will all hav separate Party meetings , Qld ‘Liberal’ members of th Q’ld ” Liberal Country Party” will attend Federal meetings of “Liberal Party” together with ‘Qld “new Liberal party” members But Qld Nats members of th Qld “Liberal Country Party” will attend Federal National Party” meetings

    Then dooza will be a subsequent combined “Coalition” Party meeting , folowing such meetings where such meetings ahv decided opposite policy views , what with Vic Libs , Vic Nationals , NT Country Liberal Party , Q’ld new Liberals , Q’ld Liberal Coutry Party…everyone with a diferent coloured “Party” tag for identification

  10. The bad news for the Pineapple Party is that next week both the Federal and Queensland parliaments sit. I think that any Pineapple Party members can expect the Murray Darling Issue to meet them as soon as parliament gathers at both state and Federal level. It is sure to be a lively welcome to the new party.

  11. In NT we hav “Country Liberal Party” , wishing to be “Liberal Country Party” but didn’t get around to changing name before election

    They are changing to ‘Country Liberals’, not ‘Liberal Country Party’.

  12. why should qld. be punished for the southern states wasting our water?
    The water is in qld. started in qld. and the southern states wasted it .
    Do not blame us for your inefficeny.

  13. Re the Qld pinching water garbage.

    It rained in Qld – the amount of water agreed on for environmental flows was exceeded. The irrigators took their legal entitlements.

    The water restrictions in Brisbane were reduced from level 6 to level 5 as dam levels reached 40%.

    This is a non issue. 😛

  14. Adam and Centre, since it’s Olympics time. We will let the two of you to fight out who said what first and when.

    But it was the three Amigos who manned and defended the fort until the last drop. While the rest of you have conveniently disappeared back to the Hacienda.

    It was 300 Vs 3 Amigos, until it got too hot for the 300s that they have to exile themselves to the G Island and continuing their one hand clappin’. No suicide yet on G Island but panic has set-in among the Lord of the Flies.

  15. They are changing to ‘Country Liberals’, not ‘Liberal Country Party’.

    remove the ‘o’ in country and maybe you have something truthful…

  16. Howard with pressure from Nats was not interested in conservation regarding MD Basin , cutting back big irrigators & mostly a CC denier States for years wanted one Authority to mange MD , but rodent listed to Farming Federation and Nats

    Now all of a sudden in middle of a drrought & CC , Rudd is suposed to perform miracles overnite

    Whilst that headline seeker Mr X fills SA people with false propaganda of non existent MD water capacity that should be sent downstream Why does Mr X not tell th truth MD Commission audit says there’s only 4,800 Gl stored out of 24,000 Gl capacity , & there advice is thats insufficent to send downstream re environment etc etc

  17. ruawake

    First of all, there is well documented evidence that Queenslanders have illegally diverted water. Secondly, your comment “The irrigators took their legal entitlements” demonstrates the problem. Beatty gave out much too generous water allowances and said “Fcuk You!” to the rest of Australia. That’s why we need Rudd to show some leadership and take over the MDB.

  18. Diogenes

    So if it floods in SA and Qld is in drought will they pump the water to Qld?

    And don’t give me Cubby station BS it was a dustbowl 18 months ago.

  19. Before people start to feel angry about those deceitful dole bludgers not going out and getting a job for what physical or mental disabilities they may have, take a look at the management of investment bank Babcock & Brown.

    Their share price has fallen from around $33+ to $2+ in the past year. Their great CEO with no obvious physical or mental disability (like dole bludgers) walks away with around $14 mil a year. Top-End-Of-Town shareholders are of course not given a leg up (like dole bludgers) but manage to dump the stock before they crash. And honest (not like dole bludgers) credit agencies maintain a AAA credit rating on the company.

    So what do we hear from Brenda about the real losers in our society – more political point scoring dole bashing. I want action taken on the real criminals, NOW, Brenda you useless dope!

  20. ruawake

    If we could pump SA’s excess in a flood to Qld in a drought we would.

    Fortunately, we have voted in Mr X and we’ll vote in another “like-minded” senator at the next election to keep the balance of power so we make Rudd see our point of view quite effectively.

  21. Diogenes

    First of all, there is well documented evidence that Queenslanders have illegally diverted water”

    How many people , when , what evidence , & crucially how much water diverted
    …hope your sourse is not th credible Mr X ,

  22. Gus

    do not know Ziggy would say that , no Labor government will agree to nuclear power Presume thats why Garnaut’s Report was so lite on th subject

    Thanks Just Me , “They NT are changing to ‘Country Liberals’, not ‘Liberal Country Party’ , so you’re saying in NT its ‘Country Liberals’ & Qld ‘Liberal Country

  23. To check on the river, scientists have used powerful satellite imagery normally used by the Defence Department.

    “They clearly demonstrate that there’s been development on the flood plain after the moratorium in June 2001,” Professor Richard Kingsford from the University of New South Wales said, which has been involved in the monitoring.

    “The Queensland Government’s assured us that basically they’ve approved structures because they were built before that date.

    “But our imagery quite clearly shows that we could only find three storages and essentially there are a whole lot of channels there that have been built post-2001 and this essentially breaches that agreement.”

    Paroo satellite snaps anger Murray-Darling farmers

  24. Why on earth do the CLP cling to this dumb name? They are not a rural party – all the outback seats in the NT are Indigenous-majority or close to it and elect Labor members. They are a Darwin/Alice Springs/Katherine party, and they should be the NT branch of the Liberal Party.

    Having read today’s offerings at Real Clear Politics and Electoral Vote, it’s even worse for Obama than I said above. Several national polls now have McCain in front, and EV’s big map has them neck-and-neck. The only Bush states that EV now has Obama winning are NM and IA. I agree that Obama will probably win NM, but I don’t think he’ll win IA the way the upper Midwest is going. Obama is only just ahead in MI and MN and could well lose them (helped in MN by this moron the Dems have picked for the Senate). VA is still shown as a tie, but it’s a long shot for Obama.

    Of course, it’s not too late for the Dems to ditch The One and nominate Clinton, who can actually win the election. Obama does not have a majority of pledged delegates, and the supers can vote as they please. Things at Denver could get verrrrry interrrresting once all the supers are under one roof and start swapping notes.

  25. That collecton of States would till reconfirm my feel it will end up a knife edge , If he’s just in front in blue MI & MN (27 ev) they’d be decisive ultimateley , and not sure where they were 10 weeks out in 2004 , but both ended up nite biters at 51/48

    I ran that Denver line firmly from March to July to my chirping flock of 30 odd daily , based on every single electability criteria incl demographics showing HRC would win potus easily , but there politcal logic was submerged in there adulation

    My faith however was shaken from many sourses , including ex Mayor Koch view , of mass afro american walkout from th Party ‘we,’ve been robbed’…again should he be rolled

    Interesting , Kevin Rudd could hav , but did not make effort to meet him personally earlier in year & only spoke by phone

  26. Madk and Ruawake

    Regarding the Murray Darling, the fact that rain fell in Qld is not a defence to Cubby station water licenses. The point is that the natural status quo of where the water would flow to has been changed. That creates a disadvantage to downstream property that would normally receive some of that water. If this had been done within Queensland it would be actionable by teh downsream property owners. I understand there is a general principle in Qld law that if you change a natural drainage path you are responsible for negative downstream effects.

    The reason why Cubby station gets away with what it does is that unfortunately the law doesn’t extend across the border. That is a function of our disfunctional Federal system that never dealt with these problems. Its the same reason why NSW could erect breakwaters across the Tweed River mouth that disrupted sand flow onto south Gold Coast beaches – there was no way for Qld to seek compensation, or make them fix it. I grew up in Qld but I’d still say that what Qld is doing over water entitlements is wrong in principle. The Cubby licenses were issued back in the Joh era without any adequate assessment of what could be sustainably removed from the MD system.

  27. After the first ballot all delegates are free to vote for whomever they like. They could then nominate their strongest ticket, which would of course be Gore-Obama. Hillary could be promised either Sec of State of the Supreme Court. But I dream… I fear in reality they will stay the course with the Titanic.

  28. Did anyone see Clarke and Dawe tonght? It was on the ratings agencies and very good. They made a not too subtle reference to a rating agency rating sub-prime mortgages as safer than the Commonwealth Bank!? Anyone know which agency?

  29. agree , think Ed Koch type view is too potent a ‘threat’ , with a double edged sword against (electorally) that candidate benefiting

    Irony , i did an analysis of Super delegates decisons from March 2 (before Texas) to last one in June HRC won those last 12 weeks as voters started to understand issues , won 9 of last 16 States , won approx 506 to 475 delegates from those 16 elections , and massively won popular vote then (falling ultimately 2% short) BUT Superdelegates split about 75% to Obama , in defiance of election results (would hav expected momentum of Supers to go HRC way not in reverse )

    Irony is , heard same afro ammerican ‘persuasion’ was trhen used , to which i posted to th ‘ adorers’ , well an hispenic candidate can use his ‘ethnic’ status next time using same method

    Kevin07 ‘s problem will be want he stands for with CC , Kyoto , trade etc

  30. Socrates “Anyone know which agency?’

    don’t know Socrates , but Standard & Poors rating agencies positive ratings of some now failed Institutions from prime morgage fiasco wouldn;t help there credibility

    How was Clarke and Dawe tonight , watched Footy Show instead , worth looking via Internet ?

  31. The Murray Darling has jumped up on the list of Mayo by election surprises.

    [INDEPENDENT senator Nick Xenophon has thrown his considerable electoral appeal behind pro-Murray River campaigner Di Bell for the Mayo by-election.

    The South Australian senator, who has been reluctant to endorse candidates, announced his backing for the academic and member of the River Lakes and Coorong Action Group at Milang on the Murray’s lower lakes yesterday.

    Senator Xenophon said he intended to become involved in her campaign and would “physically shake as many hands as I can”.

    His support could give Dr Bell’s candidacy a vital boost in a crowded field of 11, including three other independents, for the September 6 poll.

    At the 2006 South Australian state election, he gained more than 20 per cent of the statewide vote to gain re-election to the state’s Legislative Council.

    He was swept into the Senate at last year’s federal election.

    Senator Xenophon told The Australian yesterday that in some booths in the Adelaide Hills, which form part of the Mayo electorate, he outpolled the Liberal and Labor parties.

    He said he was backing Dr Bell because she was passionate about saving the Murray River. Her election would send the strongest possible message to Canberra that there was no bigger issue than fixing the river.],25197,24215631-5006787,00.html

  32. Xenophon supporting Dianne Bell will be a big boost for her campaign. Bell has been a solid supporter of action on the River Murray including a long involvement with Ngarrindjeri – Aboriginal traditional owners of the lower Murray area including the Lakes and Coorong. Of all the groups who have lost out with governments stuffing up the River Murray over many decades, the Ngarrindjeri have been one of the big losers with their cultural associations with the area being regularly ignored and trampled on.
    A win for Bell, the Greens or even Labor independent would be a great result for people concerned about the cynicism of both Liberal and Labor governments thinking that milking the Murray of more and more water wouldn’t cause environmental problems and economic problems for irrigators.

  33. and of course Cossie’s history of good judgement is impeccable , especialy his believing ‘rodent’ for 10 years that th ‘rodent’ would step down for cossie to take over , as he promised to do in 94
    I just wish Mr X , instead of chasing cheap headlines for his self interst , actualy came out with a fully costed MD plan that included auditd figures of MD capacity and storage levels & projected rainfalls….as a counter to COAG’s comprehensive one agreed at 3/7/08 Meeting & already operational , but no he’ll get elected for 2 terms , talk alot , make SA people aggrieved , and achieve zero

  34. Adam @ 285 says:

    After the first ballot all delegates are free to vote for whomever they like.

    In actual fact, the delegates have a free vote on the first ballot as well.

  35. And for South Australians , listen carefully to Mr X and see relative to th the Lakes and Coorong , if he ACTUALY nominates how many giga litres should be released now , how many by month over next 12 months , where specificaly that water will come from in MDB , and at what consequence to th areas from which it is taken

    Mr X will not say because he does NOT know , truth is th required water does not exist Magnatude of disaster of th MDB has been grossly understated by him and others for politcal gain , but it was spelled out at COAG meeting Reports & decisons , and its a disaster including that only 4,800 gl is stored against a capacity of 24,000 Gl , need rain

  36. It will surprise no one. Xenophon is interested only in himself and whatever it takes to make headlines to be re-elected. The great benefit of being independent is you can say whatever the latest popular thing is, regardless.

    Given the state of the Senate he is going to get lots of opportunity to big note himself. He doesn’t have to put money where his mouth is because he ain’t in a major party that has to produce policies that are equitable and don’t wreck the economy.

  37. David Walsh

    “In actual fact, the delegates have a free vote on the first ballot as well.”

    As he wn delegates from State primary elections 52% to 48% , and popular vote was even (depending on calc) , but he is electorally less electable , would you expect majority of Supers to overturn his presuptive status

  38. No, Ron, I would not expect the Convention to flick the candidate who has flown the party’s banner as the presumptive nominee since early June. I was merely correcting an earlier statement.

    For what it’s worth, the Democrats made the first ballot a free vote after the debacle of 1980; when Ted Kennedy embarrassed Carter by taking the fight all the way to the convention.

  39. Ron,

    Depends if they want to win or not!

    Dario @ 258 earlier alluded to as another source of polling info which might paint a better picture for Obama. However, the key is the trend and there is certainly a drift away trend from Obama.

    The EV link I provided @253 also has a comparison with Kerry v Bush at the same time in 2004 election. At this stage Kerry was well in front.

    Of course, no two elections are the same. But, I’d say there are worrying signs for the audacity and hype team.

  40. Thanks David ,

    my view now also caused in part by race & sex of 2 candidates , black caucus hav overtly made threats we heard as long ago as before Ohio Primary , and conversely if in reverse ‘female’ block would react simlilarly

    Polls hav not moved suffientley to overcome my factor mentioned above Th fact Obama happens to be regarded as ‘afro american’makes it almost impossible Fact that HRC is ‘female’ adds further complexity

    Suspect had both been white AND both male , then suspect Denver may hav been a possibility for change

    Unfortunately US method of picking there Party’s candidate is fundamentaly flawed , and for first time thrown up a 50/50 candidate chance of winning (Obama) vs from same Party on every Poll & demographic an alternative who has a 95% chance of winning (HRC)

    To win 52% to 48% of th pledged delegates from Primary Electons , what Obama did 1/ using Internet and College Campus’s was organize to win delegates from unwinnable ‘red’ mid west/west Repub States 2/ use th same ‘method’ to get numbers turning up at Caucus Primary electons of 2 hour politcal meetings in a dozen States to win delegates 3./ win southern mostly unwinnable ‘red’ Repub States Primarys by getting over 90% of ‘black’ vote to win delegates 4/ won affluent blue blood afffluent ‘liberal’ Democrat strongholds states to win delegates 5/ two huge delegates avaialbel States FL & MI HRC won but States were disputatly ‘disqualified’

    Whereas HRC won almost everyone of th ‘marginal to win’ States Result being Obama got 52% of delgates (but is signifantly less electable/ , see aboce where he won his delgates) vs HRC 48% (won where it counted to win ‘red’ States off Repub to win potus Thats th Party organizations fault , and Obama ‘played ‘th system , by 2% margin to win

    LESSON FOR “OZ” , always hav your politcans pick your Leader , finally they will get it right

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