ACNielsen: 55-45

The Fairfax broadsheets today bring the latest ACNielsen poll of federal voting intention, showing Labor’s lead up to 55-45 compared with 54-46 last month. Labor’s primary vote is steady on 43 per cent with the Coalition down one point to 39 per cent. The poll also finds Peter Costello to be favoured as Liberal leader by 56 per cent of the 1400 respondents compared with 27 per cent for Malcolm Turnbull and 17 per cent for Brendan Nelson. In head-to-head terms, Costello leads Turnbull 49-35 and Turnbull leads Nelson 47-31. Worst of all for Nelson, his approval rating is down from 36 per cent to 31 per cent and his disapproval is up from 46 per cent to 53 per cent. Hat tip to poll watcher extraordinaire James J.

UPDATE: The latest weekly Essential Research survey shows Labor maintaining its lead of 58-42. Also featured are questions on pensions, industrial relations and Australia’s performance at the Olympics.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

315 comments on “ACNielsen: 55-45”

Comments Page 5 of 7
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  1. Interesting post Boerwar.

    I cannot agree with your points 4 & 5. The assets obtained in those points would have been derived from prior earnings and taxes already paid. Everything else, yep I agree.

    The Howard government went to extraordinary lengths to catch Social Security cheats. OK catch Social Security cheats, but the amount saved by the government on those cheats would pale into insignificance compared to what could be received from tax evasion by the rich.

  2. Centre @ 201

    Thank you. Cf points 4&5, it is highly like that any substantial changes would have to take into account the current situation and that transition arrangements, or grandfathering, or some form of gradual introduction would probably be necessary to make it both somewhat fair to all, and palatable to enough of the electorate.

  3. Amigo Ronnie & GG, we could be right afterall: “ reported yesterday that 75 percent of Americans believe that John McCain can “handle the job of commander in chief.” Only 50 percent feel the same about Obama. A whopping 42 percent told pollsters they believe Obama is simply not up to the task”.

    The natives are getting restless.

  4. The Finnigans @ 230

    A mate of mine said that the thing that really matters would be who Obama’s or McCain’s veeps are, because neither of those two worthies is likely to survive for all that long. Some crazed red-neck would probably take out Obama, and McCain would probably die of stress and old age.

    Apart from that rather negative consideration, turnout is a really big deal in the US. Are you aware of any stats on how turnout might affect probabilities in the US?

  5. Finns,

    Um, I’m sure some wise person has said that before. Oh, yes, it was me. The whole Obama campaign seems to be unfolding before our very eyes.

  6. Boerwar 198

    Obviously agree with your points 1, 2 and 3.
    Regarding 4 – first I agree with you on charities, and would add sporting clubs into the mix. This loophole has gotten so bad that it almost encourages money laundering. Ever wonder why an exiled Russian billionaire wants to invest hundreds of millions on an english soccer club? He won’t get all his money back but it is untaxed and an easy way to get it out of Russia… hmmm.

    As for 4 taxes on homes, it sounds good in principle but the reality is that the huge raft of taxes on property sales and land taxes mean that I doubt this would make much difference. So I don’t object but I don’t see it as the big issue. Better to end negative gearing if we could. Everyone with an investment property would whinge but in the end its a zero sum game. Also teh existence of such distortions undermines Centre’s argument that you are proposing taxes on things that have already been taxed. Often that isn’t so.

    Regarding 5, yes I’d be happy to see death duties and gift taxes too. The US still has them with an exemption for the family home. But even that has an upper limit so if you inherit a $20M Manhatten apartment you will pay.

    The most immediate changes I’d like to see are an end to the oddities – so many tax deductions for farming and mining for example that you see many farms bought simply for their tax advantages. That nonsense must stop.

    For me the big reform needed is a revision to company tax rules to cap or minimise deductions. Untaxed share dividends combined with a leaky company tax system means that much corporate income goes largely untaxed.

  7. Boerwar

    Thinking about both our points, there are ways such reforms can gradually be introduced. Just put caps or upper limits on the dubious deductions and let inflation do the work. Don’t end negative gearing over night – just limit it (un-indexed) to properties under say $500k and over time this will limit it to what it was meant for.

  8. Now the final redistribution was published yesterday, the knives are out in the Preselection battles in Queensland.

    [However, Ms Bligh has stopped short of endorsing other sitting Labor MPs, saying yesterday, “I don’t intend to speculate seat by seat and member by member”.

    Ms Male wants to leave her Glasshouse electorate and leapfrog into the new seat of Morayfield, but the Left’s Mark Ryan is also planning to contest the seat.

    Several angry Labor backbenchers are considering speaking out publicly amid concerns Ms Spence will get a deal while Ms Male would have to fight on her own.

    “That would be a disgraceful outcome,” one MP said.

    While long-serving MP Dean Wells has lodged a preselection form, it is understood his Labor Forum faction, led by patriarch Bill Ludwig, is considering handing the seat to the Left.

    Meanwhile, Liberal National Party leader Lawrence Springborg is facing similar unrest in his party after the boundary changes left Justice spokesman Stuart Copeland without a seat.

    Sources yesterday said Toowoomba South’s Mike Horan had reneged on last year’s agreement to retire, leaving Stuart Copeland faced with having to either move to the vacant seat of Beaudesert or contest the Labor stronghold of Toowoomba North.],23739,24214163-952,00.html

  9. The Queensland Moderate Liberals are thinking of forming a new party to outflank the Pineapple Party.

    [AT least half the members of the former Queensland Liberal Party have failed to join the newly merged Liberal National Party.

    The LNP claimed this week that just two of the 5000 former Liberals had quit the new party.

    But the decision by thousands of Liberals to turn their backs on the LNP threatens to undermine claims by its leadership that the new party will invigorate conservative politics in Queensland.

    The development raises the prospect of continuing turmoil in coalition ranks, with moderate Liberals contemplating the formation of another political party.],25197,24215736-5006786,00.html

  10. GG, the narrative on the MSM is turning negative for the kid. Look at some of the headlines on RCP today:

    # Obama Has Lost His Swagger
    # Obama’s Trip Was a Mistake
    # Inflated Expectations Hurting Obama – Michael Goodwin, NY Daily News
    # Does Obama Need Hillary Clinton? – John Nichols, The Nation
    # Obama’s Female Voter ‘Problem’ – Ruth Marcus, Washington Post

    plus: RCP National Average 44.9 43.6 Obama +1.3

    Our lady candidate is sitting very pretty and the natives are getting very very restless.

  11. Now a bunfight has broken out over the money left over from the Brough campaign in Longman last year.

    [MAL Brough is embroiled in a bitter dispute over campaign finance, with another senior Liberal figure threatening to sue him amid claims the former indigenous affairs minister provided a false invoice for $43,000 in election expenses.

    Former Queensland Liberal Party state director Geoffrey Greene yesterday alleged the bad blood between him and Mr Brough stemmed from incidents surrounding Mr Brough’s loss of his federal seat of Longman in Queensland last November.

    According to Mr Greene, $107,000 was left over in the Longman campaign account after the federal poll, which was transferred to the Liberal Party secretariat’s main account. In a statement provided to his lawyers, obtained by The Australian, Mr Greene claims that when Mr Brough discovered the account had been cleaned out, he rang him in February and demanded “his” funds be returned.

    Mr Brough reportedly said: “I don’t give a f..k what you think, those funds were raised by me and not for the Liberal Party. If you do not return those funds immediately, I will take over the party and see you are sacked, your future with the party is over and your reputation will be destroyed.],25197,24215739-5006786,00.html

  12. Queensland water use not quite as restrictive as other states in taking water from the Murray Darling system.

    [QUEENSLAND irrigators took record amounts of water from the Murray-Darling Basin over the past year as other state governments wound back irrigator allocations to combat the worsening crisis in the system.

    The Queensland Department of Natural Resources and Water reports the state’s irrigators took 1.014 million megalitres from the system in 2007-08 – twice the volume of Sydney Harbour and significantly more than the previous record of 815,000ML set in 2003-04.

    While Queensland irrigators switched on their pumps, NSW Murray River irrigators were unable to take any water from the river, with allocations held at zero. Victorian irrigators were able to take only 36 per cent of their allocations, and South Australians 32per cent.],25197,24215665-5006786,00.html

  13. 213 Boerwar I think the Feds will take over the leading role here as it seems to be a case of ‘too many cooks’ when it comes to the Murray Darling system. While they might have all failed in the past I don’t think it has to always be that way.

  14. The NAB announces it will pass on in full RBA interest rate cuts and now it looks like the Federal Opposition is the biggest threat to interest rate cuts.

    [Mr Tanner said too much attention was being paid to the role of the seven balance of power senators, whose votes the Government needed to overcome Coalition opposition in the Upper House.

    The minor parties only became relevant when the Coalition voted against the government, he said.
    “They (the Opposition) are the ones that really matter,” he said to ABC Radio.

    “They are the ones that should be looking at what they are doing, particularly on Budget measures.”

    Mr Tanner said there was a correlation between the federal Budget and inflation, which influenced decisions on interest rates.

    “And any erosion of that by the Liberal Party through the Senate will ultimately be at their peril.”

    He accused the Opposition of acting as vandals by seeking political relevance.],25197,24217120-12377,00.html

  15. Brenda’s picked himself a fight with Nats maverick Kay Hull over the importation of fruit pickers from Pacific Island nations.

    Brenda, it seems, wants lazy, fat, unemployed Australians to fulfil at task that it appears nobody wants to undertake.

    Brenda should know that fruits, when left to wither on the branches, fall to the ground and rot in the mud.

    Brenda should also be aware that Kay Hull will stand her ground and fight for the interests of Riverina fruit growers and farmers in general (unlike most other Nats, who are political Neanderthals with sheep’s brains) at the expense of the Dr’s tenuous hold on the Lib leadership.

  16. Boerwar
    “Another example of how the fed and state lab governments have failed in water management?”

    Another example of your regular closet ‘Greens Party’ snipes against Labor I’ve challenged you before to look at COAG 6 State/Federal meetings going back over 2 years where Howard was problem , but instead of actualy looking at ‘water’ facts that don’t suit you , you instead pretend there is no drought and hav criticised Rudd for doing little

  17. 212 steve

    As a Crow Eater, that’s a fuc#ing disgrace. For greedy water-hungry Queenslanders to be allowed by their State and our Federal Governments to take a record amount of water from the MDB shows how broken our system of federalism is.

    I look forward to the Queenslander Rudd and SA Wong’s response to this. I know what it will be. Let’s give the Queensland farmers lots of money very slowly.

    Ronster-over to you

  18. Ronster

    I should add that I don’t blame Wong/Rudd for this but it is up to them to fix it. It was that disgusting creep Beatty who handed out the extra licenses during a drought. If they don’t, they’ll lose seats in SA. Rudd being a Queenslander leaves him open to charges that he is looking after his mates and throwing SA under the bus if he doesn’t do anything.

  19. FINNS

    Kevin Rudd now faces another & new economic problem being further access problems to US markets & our Agricultural industries competing with unfair US trade policys

    One narrative that has dramaticaly changed is both US candidates adopted very ‘protectionist’ trade policys , that will cause FURTHER immense harm to our ‘oz’ beef , wheat & other farming communities As well as our manufacturing exporting Industires as well

    They ar both going to unfairly screw ‘oz’ further on Trade , thereby hurting our pocket signicantly , and some people in ‘oz’ instead ar inspired by these 2 US candidate politcans pretty words of nothings in reality Bush is a terrible man , however either of his 2 almost equaly incompetent replacements , will be worse in trade issues for us Aussies

  20. Well heres some good news (hehehe) an environmental problem lack of money will solve. Remember that Gunns Pulp Mill proposal and claims they would have no trouble finding a funding source after ANZ withdrew …

    Gunns have just announced a profit downgrade and their share price has lost 25% in three days. They are now selling assets to reduce debts and trying to raise $300M in capital. They need $2B for the mill. Despite promises, no potential funder has been named. See

    (Sorry most of the article is behind AFR firewall)

    Also a court just ruled against them, ordering them to pay $50K in costs to the Greens when their threatened civil damages actions came to nothing. See

    If it looks like a dead project, smells like a dead project, and has the balance shet of a dead project then its probably a …. 🙂

    Also will all those who previously defended this turkey and still think the pulp mill makes financial sense please raise their hands?

  21. Well timing is everything! I just saw another article that trading on Gunns shares has been halted! See

    This time Gunns have named a potential funder, Södra, a big Swedish timber corporation. I find this curious. First there is no mention of it on Södra’s own website. See:–news/

    Second, all Scandinavian countries have very strict environmental laws on timber logging and pulp processing. I’d be very surprised if Gunns EIS would allow it to meet Swedish, Norwegian or Finnish standards. I wonder if Sodra know the history of this project?

    Either way, it seems that the only way the mill will proceed now is if a significant chunk of it becomes foreign owned as well. Brilliant! This mill is a loser on every angle. Why can’t they just admit they were wrong?

  22. If otherwise inteligent people in ‘oz’ actualy put time into significant research into th US candidates actual policys (not there ‘geek’ policy web sites) , they’d be horified to find there’s actualy a choice between a Liberal party Turnbull and a Consevative Howard

    Both will hurt ‘oz’ on trade and badly in our pockets , th three fair dinkum ‘left’ possiblities (Gore , Clinton , Edwards) all would hav made A positive policy diference somewhere beit trade or otherwise , but ar not in race

    Water (lack of & its future increasing cost) is a new additional hurdle for our farming Industry , competing with US Govt subsidised agriculure exports , and both Yankee candidates increasing ‘protectionism against ‘oz’ farmers is now another farmer’s hurdle

    Kevin07 problem is time to restructure water after Howard’s neglact to give our frmers a chnce against unfair US trade agricultural policys

  23. Mr X calls on the Ruddster and Wong to intervene. Why can’t Rudd cut back the Queenlander’s water licences???

    Independent Senator Nick Xenophon likened the water take to putting four starving men in a room with a loaf of bread and having one eat it all before throwing his mates the crumbs.

    Senator Xenophon also called on the federal government to intervene and ensure the equitable sharing of water along the river system.

    “I want them to do the right thing by the entire river system,” he said.

    “It’s not right that you have one part of the river system that is in virtual flood and the other part that is going to die.

    “That, to me, is not what a river system should be about.”,22606,24216470-5006301,00.html

  24. Ron

    Yes, that is why I personally preferred Edwards or Clinton to Obama. I still hope Obama wins because McCain is worse and I desperately want to see the republicans kicked out. But I agree that Obama cannot possibly keep all his promises. The very midwestern states where he is so popular are going to demand that he protect them from foreign competitors, including us. The US is in such an economic mess that whoever wins is going to have to do things that are internationally unpopular to keep the local voters happy.

  25. Ron

    I’m not going to let you get away with that. Hillary repeatedly said how she opposed NAFTA (which Bill brought in) and wanted American jobs protected.

  26. Diogenes, check out the CSIRO work.

    Condamine-Balonne key findings by scenario
    • Average surface water availability under the historical climate is
    1363 GL/yr. At the current level of development 722 GL/yr (or 53%)
    of this is diverted for use. This is an extremely high level of use.
    Current monitored groundwater use is 160 GL/yr or 18% of total
    water use.
    • The recent (1997 to 2006) climate is similar to the long-term
    average climate.
    • The best estimate (or median) climate change by 2030 would
    reduce average surface water availability by 8% and would reduce
    the volume of water diverted for use within the region by 4%.
    • Future development of plantation forestry is expected to be
    negligible and the small projected growth in farm dam capacity is
    expected to have a very minor impact on river inflows. Groundwater
    extraction is expected to decrease in the future.

  27. Ron @ 218

    1. LOL at your suggestion that I am ‘pretending that there is no drought on’. What a hoot! I would suggest that unlike all, or most, of the other bloggers on this site, the drought is actually costing me income. It has also hit other members of my extended family very, very hard as has the gross mismanagement of water by successive governments of both stripes.

    2. I take it from your response above that you think that what is happening in Queensland is an example of successful water management by a labour government? How long do they have to be in before they consider themselves accountable for what they are doing? I am sure that the NSW and SA labour governments would find that interesting.

    4. I would appreciate it if you didn’t verbal me on being a closet member of the Green’s party. I am not. If you follow my posts carefully you will see that I have given some fairly swinging criticisms of Green’s policy. I reserve my right to discuss issues from a personal point of view, free from any party allegiance. I am attracted to competent governments of whatever colour, and generally rate Brumby as competent. (You appear to find that hard to believe?) My approach is quite enjoyable actually, because, I don’t have to get glued on to untenable party political positions.

    5. Do you think the Victorian Government has problems with overall water management? No? I do. We have known for over two centuries that we live in a country of droughts and flooding rains. Yet, the Victorian Government let a drought catch them unprepared. I know that party political issues are bound up in all this, but the first step in fixing problems is acknowledging that previous handling has failed, and taking some accountability for it.

    6. Water management institutions, water consumption patterns, water infrastructure, water pricing and water policies processes are a national disgrace and have generated a crisis in the Murray/Darling. The crisis is economic, social and environmental. My criticism of the state labour governments is that they have been contributors on their watch to this state of affairs. I have previously acknowledged that they have inherited a lot of their problems from libnat governments of the past. I have also previously criticized Howard for his performance on water, which was also a disgrace. No-one is squeaky clean on this one.

    7. My criticism of the Rudd Government is that after a decade in Opposition, it aims to develop a plan for the MDB by 2011. What’s all the hurry?

    8. My praise (now and previously) for the Rudd Government is that it is expanding the quantum and scope of the buyback mechanism. My criticism (now and in the past) of the Howard Government that it did not adopt this policy. A bit hard to implement now that the system is running on empty, but the settings are about right.

    9. I am happy to continue this discussion with you as long as we can both stick to discussing the issues rather than trying to label each other and making assumptions based on the labels.

  28. Diogenes/Ron

    Sorry good point Diogenes I forgot the NAFTA promise. Clinton was no better than Obama on protectionism of farm industries. I preferred her to Obama for other reasons but Edwards was the only candidate that I saw improving this situation. As I said though, its a bit academic, whoever wins will do the same thing.

  29. Diogenes

    You’ve asserted sometting i did not say , then argued against your own misrepresention of my words Suggest go back and read my 2nd paragraph

    Th bloke is a phoney , A ronald reagan orarator but with even less substance wthan Ronaldo , and other is a maverick , both flip flop often within same day , botb will severely hurt ‘oz’ farmers and exporters

    my 2nd paragraph demonstrated in th broad comparison of those 2 vs th 3 fair dinkum ‘left’ type politcans listed , and I stand by those commnets because those 3 pollies actual policys suport my comments

  30. Ron

    To suggest Obama is more protectionist than Hillary is just not supported by Hillary’s own comments. She attacked Obama for being too “free trade” and exporting US jobs overseas if he got in. Australian farmers are going to be stuffed no matter whoever got in, as the US economy is tanking and it’s populist to become protectionist when the economy looks bad.

  31. Diogenes, the CSIRO had this summary for the Queensland Border Rivers area of their report. Wonder what Springborg makes of all this?

    • There is a high level of surface water diversion in the Border Rivers
    region which has reduced end-of-system flows and the reliability of
    • A high level of groundwater development near the Dumaresq River is
    expected to reduce both groundwater levels and streamflow in the
    • Climate change is expected to reduce surface water availability by
    about 10%.
    • Projected groundwater use for 2030 unlikely to be sustainable and
    would further reduce streamflow; reductions would be most apparent
    in periods of low flow..

  32. I think I’ll give up on this caper the more one reads the more damning the figures get. This is also from the Border Rivers findings.

    • Farm dam volume projected to increase by 13 GL
    • 85% in NSW (14% above current farm dam volume)
    • minor impact: 1% reduction in average annual runoff
    • Projected additional 12 GL/y of groundwater extraction in the
    modelled area of the Border Rivers Alluvium GMU
    • this would remove another 9 GL/year from the river
    • unsustainable – large reductions in groundwater levels
    • Groundwater use in the rest of NSW is projected to increase nearly
    6x overall and 27x in the New England Fold Belt GMU
    • would lead to 30 GL/y loss in tributary streamflow
    • Additional groundwater use and additional farm dams would reduce
    surface water availability by 22 GL/y
    • 55% due to farm dams 45% due to additional GW use
    • GW use 28% of total water use on average and 67% in driest year

  33. 223
    Diogenes Says:
    I think the two candidates in the US should just cut the crap and make each other their running mate.

    He he.

  34. You get the feeling Cossie is protecting Brendan from Malcolm. All Brendan has to do now is not call for a leadership spill because Malcolm won’t dare challenge while Cossie is there.

  35. We the amigos could be right again as it looks like Obama may needs Hillary to win office. There is no doubt the tide has turned against Obama. If I were Hillary, i would say NO. You created the mess, you fix it.

    [Reuters/Zogby poll today showed McCain opening up a 5-point national lead — and stunningly – The Hillary game changer — If he were to surprise the country — and the press — by naming Hillary Clinton as his running mate, he could turn the race upside down. Making the announcement in Springfield this Saturday, drawing from Lincoln’s experience in assembling a “team of rivals” (the glorious book by Doris Kearns Goodwin), would be transformative. No one else would so galvanize the Democrats, bring a fighter to his side, and send a clear message that an Obama administration would bring experience to solving problems both at home and abroad. Has anyone looked what happened to jobs and wages under Bush vs. Clinton? The comparison is startling. And remember that a quarter of Hillary’s voters still haven’t “come home” to the Democratic column.]

  36. There is no doubt Obama is in trouble unfortunately. Bringing in Hillary is worth a shot but it won’t necessarily do the trick. A black man and a woman on the one ticket. Two firsts. I would like to see it personally but I’m not sure the Americans would. Pity.

  37. Steve @ 235

    Thinking about your posts some more, a couple of observations, and trying not to get too depressed about all the water buggerups:

    1. On farm storages tend to be shallow and the ratio of evaporation to stored water tends to be high. While water may become so expensive that people will avoid on-farm storage, there has to be a policy question about why people should be allowed to do it at all. One ray of hope on this horizon is some plastic stuff or other that creates a surface film on dam water and reduces evaporation by a huge amount. In prep, but likely to be commercially available before too long. And for the environmentalists, it does not affect oxygen content of the water, allowing normal use of the water by aquatic life. Cross fingers on that one. It would be a useful government initiative to fund speeded up use of this stuff once the trials have been completed, hint, hint. It will be commercial, but the Government could make a big difference for a small government outlay in speeding uptake…

    2. the overuse of groundwater is fairly endemic and is going to be a major part of the challenge. It is a worldwide problem. The relationship between groundwater and surface water in the MDB is in general still imperfectly understood. But recent understanding has tended to demonstrate that there is a much higher direct relationship than previously understood.

    3. I suspect that there is a serious problem with the Qld rural/regional bureaucracy being too close to the irrigators – I would be willing to bet that there have been no, or very few, prosecutions for criminal activities relating to water use. It is the same mob who used to hand out clearing licences like confetti. Any general solution to the MDB which does not take this governance issue into effect is going to tend to fail.

    4. One of the downstream effects of reduced flows, particularly during extreme low flows, is that the salt content will zoom. Adelaide is looking down the barrel on that one. With zero flow out of the Murray mouth, the mobilized salt slugs have nowhere to go and will concentrate in the lower reaches of surface waters. Adelaide drinking water will increasingly go above World Health benchmarks. In some cases, they will also back flow into groundwater basins if the groundwater levels are lowered through pumping, potentially damaging ground water resources as well.

    5. In relation to your question: The perps here are the natural supporters of Springborg. I have not heard Springborg on the topic, but I can sort of guess what he thinks about. With a bit of luck it won’t matter what he thinks. But this means that what matters is what labour does. I hope it gets it right.

    6. One of the major issues with any resolution of the MDB is where in the system the water ends up being used. A gig used downstream for irrigation has a much higher evaporation cost than a gig used upstream, if the gigs are transported in anything other pipes. Efficiency and logic would say that the the SA irrigation systems should be migrated as far upstream as practicable – but this would not be very palatable to SA irrigators, towns or pollies.

    7. The truly frightening thing about it all is that the same mob who stuffed the MDB have now set their sights on the northern rivers.

  38. Cossie said No. as we all know. The Libs are now in a a deep pile of you know what.

    [Mr Costello broke his silence today with a rare and ambiguous doorstop interview in Melbourne. He was asked why he was not letting his party and the Australian people know whether he intended to challenge for the leadership.

    “Well I am not,” Mr Costello said. Asked if that meant he was not challenging, he replied: “Everyone knows that.”]

  39. Swan is looking good now that the NAB has said they will lower interest rates if the RBA does. Whether he had anything to do with it or not the fact that he has been putting the pressure on recently verbally and with his coming changes makes it look as though he has. He is out there today saying the other banks should follow the NAB’s lead.

  40. Diogenes , well done made an omlett scrambled upside down with muddy waters of red herrings combining 2 differnt points I made , first on trade vs ‘oz’ farmers

    On trade , we will get screwed by both curent US candidates , particularlty in agriculture for our farmers (plus manufactured goods) , both ar long term hard ‘protectionists’ , dump them both for ‘oz’ Quite separately as an issue in other policys in reality Obama is a Liberal Turnbull and McCain is a conservative Howard

    Broad comparsion I gave was th only fair dinkum ‘left’ type options were Gore , Clinton & Edwards and there actual policys support that description , I was happy with all 3 , so by comparison curent candidates dumpmaster material Specificaly on trade , Billy Clinton fought politcaly hard for free trade NAFTA , she publicly suported him , Gore VP strongly supported Billy , Edwards less so , Edwards & Clinton in this race hardened up there protectionism stanses Upshot is probably we would probably get raped anyway but there’s some spark there in those ‘left’ pollies history , whereas th current 2 there’s no hope/no spark , just pretty fluff

    So even in Trade , one may hope based on history of 3 ‘left’ people I listed , but importantly in every other respect including supporting Kyoto & suporting universal healthcare Gore Clinton & Edwards ar geenuine ‘left’ type pollies , current two oppose both and ar not ‘left’ types , despite all th nice flip flop pretty words both sprout

    Kevin RUDD and our economy already hav enough hurdles without now additional guarantee our farmers and manufacturer exporters being further ripped off by US subsidisys by both firm curent protectionist candidates

  41. Costello was always more of a bully and so could monster the banks into keeping rates in line with RBA rates. But that could not have gone on forever–the banks have legal obligations to their shareholders.

    Swan is coming on well but he needs to make changing mortgagor much easier and let RBA or FF take up peoples mortgages which would provide real competition again.

  42. “There is no doubt Obama is in trouble unfortunately”

    Oh, no, don’t tell me I am going to be right afterall. I was the first to declare on this site that if the Dems go with Obama or Hillary, McCain will win the presidency.

    Maybe we should keep a look out for any suicides on Gilligan’s Island yet LOL.

    On the home front, Cossie is talking about the economy. The first Newspoll or ACN after he becomes leader is going to be HUGE!

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