The Fairfax broadsheets today bring the latest ACNielsen poll of federal voting intention, showing Labor’s lead up to 55-45 compared with 54-46 last month. Labor’s primary vote is steady on 43 per cent with the Coalition down one point to 39 per cent. The poll also finds Peter Costello to be favoured as Liberal leader by 56 per cent of the 1400 respondents compared with 27 per cent for Malcolm Turnbull and 17 per cent for Brendan Nelson. In head-to-head terms, Costello leads Turnbull 49-35 and Turnbull leads Nelson 47-31. Worst of all for Nelson, his approval rating is down from 36 per cent to 31 per cent and his disapproval is up from 46 per cent to 53 per cent. Hat tip to poll watcher extraordinaire James J.
UPDATE: The latest weekly Essential Research survey shows Labor maintaining its lead of 58-42. Also featured are questions on pensions, industrial relations and Australia’s performance at the Olympics.
Having read that ERMS article Scorpio I still don’t know what the voting intentions are. Do you know?
With the Hare-Clark system of voting how can anyone know 🙂
Gary,
It’s a bit vague isn’t it. I suppose the proportional voting system there makes it difficult to get any sort of accurate 2 PP intention and translate that to potential seats.
“But more Tasmanians still want Mr Bartlett as their Premier than Liberal Opposition leader Will Hodgman, who was preferred by one-third (33%) of voters.”
So do we assume Bartlett was preferrd by 66%? That’s one massive lead if that is the case.
Given Liberals have to win some of Labors 55% support , this Poll specificaly polled Labor voters finding Turnbull and Costello rated equally (subject to MOE)
We already know from recent Polls of Rudd vs Turnbull that Rudd wins easily , so indirectley we already know Rudd vs Costello that Rudd will win easily (as of now)
Somehow Diogenes created polling history by turning a Poll of of Labor suporters showing 15% more likely to vote FOR Cossie VS 24% more unlikely to vote AGAINST (being a net 9% deficiency against Cossie) into a plus…by saying th 15% may be rusted on and 24% may be all swinging , therefore Cossie has a surplus Perhaps that may qualiy for an ‘oz’ role
An argument against is Labors 2PP has gone up by 2.3% since electon , and EVEN assuming they were all swingers , 24% of 2.3% as a plus to Libs with tip in control gives Tip 0.6% plus (54.4% to 45.6%) Thats th best for Tip with Shanahan logic
However rreality is of course one can only go as far as my 2nd par at max. with these polls What we do know is Shanahan , Bolt etc know Labor’s polling this year , with 3% MOE , has consitently showed an average of around 10% lead by all Polsters , meaning ANY Liberal opposition leader whoever , could not posibly diminish such a huge Labor lead significantly for th present time
Make that 67%.
Rx @ 35 –
Assuming thy lost the votes because of WorkChoices (biggest vote-changer), I doubt Costello can entice them back, given he is even more radical on IR than Howard was prepared to go.
Add to this that the only thing the punters have heard from Costello all year, apart from the Garbo-esque “I wunt to be left alone,” was his fulsome support for Nelson’s hard line ETS policy (version #3,728, from memory) which not even the shadow cabinet thought was a passably good idea.
Cossie has far to much baggage that Labor could exploit, but IMHO, the factor above all others that would ensure he’ll never got his bum on the Prime Ministerial chair is that Aussies don’t like petulant dummy-spitters and there are few bigger than him.
Ronster
As has been pointed out earlier, I AM Dennis Shanahan. That medical stuff is just a front. 😀
Let’s wait for a poll of Rudd v Costello compared to a poll of Rudd v Nelson. If the Cossie poll is closer than the Brenda poll, I win (along with my little mates Milne and Bolt).
If there is no difference between the Rudd v Nelson and Rudd v Cossie (or if Brenda fares better than Cossie) then you win.
Costello will quit before Xmas. He’s just cockteasing everybody to boost interest in his book. This is an MUP marketting trick. If he was intending to stay he wouldn’t be publishing his memoirs, which will be a gift to Rudd. “Oh that mine enemy would write a book.” Job
Typical Shanhan , make up th rules in darkness awaiting print deadlines, then add some plain old fashioned Shana’s ‘spin’ , and for desert then add his own unique variety of multi colored Tip ‘spin’ to articles
What i said is Rudd presently will beat any Liberal easily , and that Labor voters per ACR Poll regard Turnbuyll & Cossie equally , meaning they’ll equally add to Libs vote (more likely, but not by much) , or both equaly will lower Libs vote) No amount of your Tippy toe ‘spin’ changes your mangling of Poll figures of Cossies 9% deficient Mr S as spin for Cossie , nor my conclusion Kevin07 has consistenlty held 10% lead this year that no Libeal leader coud posibly hav alltered dramaticaly
People talk of 55% 2pp as if it’s “just” 55%. Does anyone remember polling during the Howard years? It was always 50-50 or a couple either way. Then the incumbent gains a few % during the election campaign. With Rudd/ALP’s polling, the coalition is in opposition for the next 20 years.
I came across this article earlier and found it most interesting. I wonder why it didn’t get a wider exposure at the time. I apologise for it being off topic but I am sure people who missed it would enjoy a read.
{But Howard’s father had another life. While this old soldier worked his humble Sydney service station, he was also – on paper – a New Guinea planter with a string of estates where 200 native labourers grew copra in his name. Lyall Howard had cashed in his status as a returned digger to “dummy” for the trading house W. R. Carpenter and Company Ltd. His own father, Walter, was doing it, too. The Howard case provoked secret, official investigations at the highest levels in Canberra, but they and their powerful backer got away with the scam.}
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/the-secret-howard-plantations/2006/06/10/1149815326249.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
Despite what this poll says it is members of the Parliamentary Liberal Party that decide the leader. The Fibs don’t do factions very well but they do have them.
Brenda has to bite the bullet soon, he is the leader. Costello is playing silly buggers. He should say to Tip, put up or shut up.
All he has to do is call on all members to say they will stand at the next election and require this in writing by 1st Sept. If a member fails to give this undertaking they lose preselection.
Time to call the Tip factions bluff. 😛
Two things.
I thing that swimming pool was named after the former Prime Minister because he liked swimming which is also probably not unrelated to his drowning so it is not so strange.
The article on the Tasmanian poll is the first mention I remember seeing of a Greens leader as a prefered head of government.
Why wouldn’t Nelson call a leadership spill as a circuit breaker? He might lose it but he’s going to be white-anted until he is forced to quit as the polls are not going to stop if he doesn’t do anything. It would force Tip’s hand and flush out Turnbull.
Tom imagine if those gutless opinion poll takers put Bob Brown on as preferred PM
That would be the end of 2PP house of cards
Judge.
To be PM you have to have the confidence of the House of Representatives. How many Greens are there in the “House”? 😛
Tom
#64
“a Greens leader as a prefered head of government.’
Article says McKim greens at 12% prefered , Liberal Hodgeman at 33% , and quote ‘Barlett more than Hodgeman’ ( assume Barlett 55% less undecided) so Greens still 3rd in prefferred
Not a very clearly written article anyway , and they can not add up
Labor 30% Libs 30% Greens 16% Undecided 25% (guess extra 1% is Tassie devils )
Undesided at 25% , is alot of voters not sure (made more difficult by there voting system)
The Mayo by-election is off the radar screen in South Australia. The media did cover the Liberal pre-selection and Bob Day’s subsequent conversion from Liberal to Family First was covered by the Sunday Mail and at least ABC radio (but not I think The Advertiser).
Candidates were announced last Friday and the Tiser ran only a small item, naming seven of the eleven but not “four independents”. It designated Mary Brewerton, Labor’s candidate at the general election, as “ALP” even though she is standing an an independent since the ALP is eschewing the by-election. The Australian today called her “ex-Labor” but that’s probably wrong too; I don’t think she’s resigned from the party and she won’t be expelled because she won’t be standing against a Labor candidate.
With only two and a half weeks to go, let’s hope the Mount Barker Courier and other non-metropolitan media outlets are giving all candidates a bit more of a platform than we see or hear about in the city.
making Barlett at 40% preference and undesided at 15%
ruawake, what are you afraid of? peoples opinion?
If you want to get technical voters don’t have any say in who the is PM.
so why do polls consistently survey preferred PM?
judge
The PM is the leader of the party that has the most seats in the HoR, fact. The Greens have ZERO members in the HoR, fact.
Hence it is irrelevent to put Bob Brown in the preferred PM poll.
FACT. 😛 😛
69 The Mayo by-election is off the radar screen in South Australia.
Probably hoping nobody will show up just like they kept Mum in the Brisbane City Council elections and the NT. Democracy always does better with a high turnout and plenty of controversy.
ruawake, opinion polls ask all sorts of questions,
obviously you are afraid to know what people might think about Bob Brown as PM.
I think that’s a fact.
the judge
#66
“Tom imagine if those gutless opinion poll takers put Bob Brown on as preferred PM That would be the end of 2PP house of cards ”
2PP house of cards ? Greens were actualy given there opportunity on 24th November 2007 with reel 2PP voting , and voters gave them just 7% odd
Voters hav voted with there ACTUAL votes dismissing Greens as government material , let alone PM material
Your Greens comment defies politcal logic
[obviously you are afraid to know what people might think about Bob Brown as PM]
Well how about Warnie for PM? Let’s get serious please…
judge
I am not afraid of anything. 🙂
Lets get real, Bob Brown would score less than Brenda as preferred PM. Take your proportional representation glasses off for a second.
Plus, Bob Brown is in his last term as a Senator.
What was the number of votes required to become an elected Tasmanian Senator? Tee Hee.
Diogenes @ 65
1. Nelson would not call a leadership spill because that would be the end.
2. Nelson and Tiptoe have had a private meeting which lasted longer than an hour. No staffers, no anybody. No-one knows what was agreed.
3. There are rumours that Nelson has looked considerably more relaxed since the meeting.
Latest Essential Research survey still has Labor 58-42 ahead:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/EssentialReport_180808.pdf
Must be a misprint William. Surely the impending annointment of Cossie as the new messiah should have the voters flocking to the Libs by now!
the judge,
As always you are putting lipstick on a pig.
#19, Diog – [Stephanie Rice recently visited the Harold Holt Swim Centre] – Why not?
Since we are very good at sports where there is water involved: Swimming, Rowing, Canoeing, Sailing, Triathlon.
So we should agitate to be included in the Olympics new water related sports like: walking on water; drowning; waterboarding and chinese water torture, not to mention binge drinking.
Stop the Games. We are ahead of the Poms (for now)
One question for the Labor party cheer squad.
Which party’s preferences decided the outcome of the Bennelong and I think 8 other electorates.
One word answer is all that’s required.
How relevant is that? ha ha ha
enough said
Hint its a color
It shouldn’t be surprising that Labor’s lead has increased since the election. There would have been a number of voters who in that last week deciding to stay with the Howard government because of anxiety about changing from something they knew and for so long.
Now the ice has been broken, Howard’s gone, Rudd’s in and running and the remainder of the LNP collapsed into school-boy antics. The waivering voter has now become the converted. The Howard ‘myth’ departed and what lay underneath was nothing.
When it comes to the next election will there be a narrowing toward the government? Afraid to change to a party that has trouble with continuity and, so far doesn’t seem to stand for anything except opposing the govt.
The LNP would then need to be close to 50/50 coming to the next election to allow for that ‘narrowing’ toward the govt should it occur. One wonders if 55/45 might become 57/45 come election time if no inroads have been made by the murdoch media.
the judge,
Thanks for all the fish.
judge
We have a preferential voting system, the fact is preferences flowed to Labor, and these were votes cast by the electorate, are you saying that the Greens would have voted for the Conservatives?
Get over it. The Greens are a minority party. When they win seats in the house that matters they can play with the Big Boys.
Until then they can play silly buggers in the Unrepresentative Swill Chamber. 😛
It’s getting hard to boycott the Limpix when we keep winning stuff.
Adam,
It is very unkind of you to call the Libs Limprix.
But Adam is an expert in such matters 🙂
The Widening, according to Essential Research; The Flattening, according to Neilson. As AiC says, hard to boycott federal politics when we keep winning stuff. Seriously, looks like those being polled are saying pretty clearly, nup, we made up our minds last November, and unless the LNP can come up with something better than what’s currently on offer, which we think is not much really, we’re not at all interested. Tip’s the best bet? Why would you vote for a lazy, narcissistic, rude person? Dunno, myself.
If the Greens won the federal seat of Melbourne (which has a 4.71% margin on a Labor/Green bassis)(or any other HoR seat but Melbourne is most likely) then they would have a candidate for prefered prime minister.
The same goes at the state state level on the mainland (for prefered premier) with the relevent seat(s).
“Until then they can play silly buggers in the Unrepresentative Swill Chamber”
I must say in defense of Greens Party & its overall suporters , that there ar rwo factions in Greens Party
th first Greens faction is th sensible environmentalists faction (& now CC as well) who wish to constructively influence public and Labor policy who generally happily support a ‘left’ Labor policy Agenda Happy to debate with them Second Greens faction is a looney dogma driven fringe with delusions they ar actualy mainstream now but somehow Greens Party ar ‘cheated’ for representation by Labor and Liberal Partys , that Greens Party will be Government , and generaly ar anti Labor with strange chip on shoulder , talk th most & with most outragous statements here , and embarrass there sensible environmentalists faction & its factional Leader Bob Brown Second group mainly reside in Gilligans
Labor has not been immune in past from such an embarassing lunatic faction either , a small rump of which remains today but whose influence today fortunateley is negligible , but this fringe lunatic group were on show in th 2007 electon with WA union guy & Vic electical trades union guy
HSO
Mike Rann
George W Bush
Jeff Kennett
etc
Disunity is death. Death before dishonour.
Nats MP breaks ranks over Pacific worker scheme
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/18/2339240.htm?section=justin
[Disunity is death. Death before dishonour.]
Ahhh…. it’s just beautiful
Harry
#91
“Tip’s the best bet? Why would you vote for a lazy, narcissistic, rude person”
Is that your selection Harry for Tip’s new book title
William Bowe
#79
August 18th, 2008 at 6:54 pm
“Latest Essential Research survey still has Labor 58-42 ahead”
Haven’t keep track of this pollster’s history , however this poll seems to biased for Labor Whilst Labor’s primary vote is 45% (which one would think is upper levels), it shows Liberals at only 35% which seems far to low , and excess has gone to Greens 10% FF 4% and others 6% , and feel these later three Groups may hav bits of actual Liberal primary votes in there via MOE
the judge thinks Bod Brown should be pm.
I have a lot of time for bob brown, he is in my view principled even if I don’t like some of his views. But as prime minster, no way.
Charles
#99
I agree Charles with your entire post completely