Morgan: 55-45

Roy Morgan has released a survey of 1255 respondents from face-to-face polling conducted over the past two weekends, showing the sitution unchanged in every respect from the previous poll released a fortnight ago. Labor leads 55-45 on two-party preferred, and by 45.5 per cent to 39.5 per cent on the primary vote.

• Another poll that slipped through the cracks was Newspoll’s quickie survey over the weekend of 564 respondents in Queensland, regarding attitudes to Lawrence Springborg, Mal Brough and the Coalition merger.

• To mark the demise of Channel Nine’s Sunday program, here’s a fascinating Laurie Oakes retrospective of the events of 1975 which some kind person put on YouTube, which I’m guessing dates from around 1990.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

149 comments on “Morgan: 55-45”

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  1. [Sir Kevin has done as proud again]

    I don’t understand why you call Rudd “Sir”. Labor members aren’t allowed to accept knighthoods.

  2. Diogenes : “I think that exemplifies my double standards argument #40
    I look forward to Ron’s reply.”

    Suggest you re read my #50 post , consistent i’d say and i stand by it

  3. ShowsOn

    I’m not arguing in any way for a trade boycott. When I pressed “send” I realised my post should have been clearer about the “left” placing a higher emphasis on human rights than the “right” would, and vice versa for trade.


    I’m still gasping for breath at your coldness to Hillary. You’ve thrown her under the bus. She wouldn’t even made Rudd’s first eleven! What’s all this crap about “strong” countries being able to do what “weak” countries cannot in diplomacy.

    I think your justification that “strong” countries can do things that we cannot do doesn’t hold water. Plenty of small countries have done more than us about China.

    And I bet if the Rodent was doing exactly what Rudd is doing, he’d be criticised by many of the people who are sticking up for Rudd.

  4. rod
    brings back some fond memories of nov 11 and some not so fond 🙁

    Re china
    the prestige we are garnereing o/s will come back to us in so many positive ways

    rudd is an ex diplomat-need i say more

  5. #15 Diog – [China has a human rights record worse than almost any country. Why the hell are we so pleased that they like us?] – what century are you referring to?

  6. Diogenes


    you hav misrepresented my post #50 , you accused me of double standards which i not only demolished , but exposed your weak argument as I will get to

    FIRST re BUSH I said cowardly Bush should hav made th ‘human rights tibetan Statement you lisrted Hillary suggested in #37 trongest nation on earth making a stand 9obviously thr later diplomacy betwwen US and China , USA would hav attended
    You avoided this point

    SECOND HILLARY her stanse i supported , it had ‘ticker’

    THIRD MR Oiliness phoney , no couage , 5 diferent nuanced positions in a week , th Chinese would giggle at such a weak amateur

    FOUR RUDD I said ‘oz’ can not invade or insult Countrys , so a different stanse was required for .oz. vs USA , for ‘oz’ firm dipomacy was needed , Vera #17 proved Rudd HAD already done so Thomas at #37 explained why

    FIFTH Rodent ? would never have told th Chinese what Rudd per vera’s post said

    So clearly I do not hav double standards as demonstrated

    Now lets look at your argument , you do NOT favor trade sanctions , you do NOT favor Hillarys firm public approach for th US , you do NOT favor Rudd’s already firm diplomacy approach , so what th hell do you propose …actauly take our 3 F111’s to bejing ? (I mean if you were one of Gilligans “progressives” anti Rudd set yes they find it is it reely difficult to applaud Sir Kevin that he is doing such job) …but you seem to hav no alternative solution I think

  7. FINNS

    double standards USA , no oil no interest I mean a Bush firm speech would hav been helpful but maybe he was worried th Chinese may ask about human right sover ‘Katrina” poor survivors being ignored for so long , bet if the were differnt demographic help would hav come quicker Double edged sword principals th US use

  8. Ronnie, i just want to know when was the last time the Chinese secretly and illegally bomb a country for 12 months or so and killed 350,000 innocent civilians.

  9. FINNS

    thats th hypocritcal position th US has got itself into There ar humanitarian abuses everywhere , Tibet is an example Th World looks to th USA believing land of liberty and democracy for a lead to make a public stand It should despite its own ‘history’ as some good would come

    MORE good would of course come IF there was no Vietnam , Cambodia , Iraq , renditions , gitmo , no darfurs/Ruwanda’s /palestinains where th US sits idly by ….oil & self interst is US powerful motive for such hypocritical abuses , so th Chinese could give a return embarassing lecture with an almost barry Hall That would be good also …publicly A public start is needed instead of everything sweetly behind closed doors

  10. #15 Diog – China has suffered the human rights record worse than almost any country between 1885-1948 in the hand of external powers. Why the hell are we so surprised that they dont like us?

  11. Well th USA is even today ar bemused th muslims hate USA , despite troops in middle East which clearly th populace do nrt want , land they regard as holy , guess it would be like foreign troops on sacred Aborigine land Do they not ‘get it’

  12. The Chinese would be well within their rights to point out to their critics in the U.S and in Australia, that countries that launched a war on a near defenceless though oil rich Iraq, based on lies and deceit, are not in a strong position to criticize anyone. Over a million dead most of them children and over 2 million made in refugees and the country divided up for big oil with the help of the U.S. State Dept.

  13. Liam

    I’m glad double standards were brought up by Diogenes Th problem with his argument was my points in #50 & #59 were consistent & not double re USA needing to make a public stand , concurrent with Rudd’s current firm dipomacy

    I was certainly not implying USA a innocent violets at all , but that was not what th debate was about so i did not mention it

    Th problem Diogenes ‘view’ had is th fact USA itself (I was aware has been guilty of double standards) but as Diogenes also knew it had double standards it left him with no alternative solution to offer Whereas i’m saying a public stand needs to be made first by th USA as small Nations ar looking fore a ‘lead’ as Hillasry suggested ,

    THEN Chinese will respond and i would hope they did (probably diplomatically but would prefer publicly ,

    AND let all th humanitarian dirt come out and land , and if it hurts its a start to reality …particularly to US psche and thereafter maybe its selfish FA oil driven policy

    Current solutions for 30 years hav not worked very well !!

    Rudd’s diplomacy with both countries thereafter becomes then a bonus ?

  14. Ron I support the Rudd policy re China, he has no blood on his hands on the Iraq issue.My point was that when we behave like criminals it robs us of any moral base from which to justifiably critcize China or any other country.

  15. Liam

    “Ron I support the Rudd policy re China, he has no blood on his hands on the Iraq issue”

    Absolutely Liam , I did say I FULLY suppported Rudd’s approach in my #50 & #59
    We ar in total agreement

    What Diogenes tried as he himself admitted was try to “wedge” me for previuos comments i made re what th USA should do , as i had favoured a public approach (and still do) He was asserting I was udsing double standards

    So in 350 & #59 I pointed out that what I felt th US sahould do (most powerful Nation on earth) was DIFFERENT to what I believed ‘oz’ and Rudd should do (us being only a middle ranking country Diogenes “wedge” failed

    IT IS TRUE re your point
    “My point was that when we behave like criminals it robs us of any moral base from which to justifiably critcize China or any other country.”

    So what i’m knowingly suggeting as per my #66 is USA still do it , and wear th big bite back for its past hypocracy , otherwise USA psche remains unchanged
    There is plenty of humanitarian blame to share around and prefer it finally to be in open without hypocracy So do not disagree with your underlying point there

  16. I’ve assumed all night th “rattle snake” in my wish for a USA public stanse ie It will come back to bite them , and publicly and maybe change there psche “God bless America” as well

    Th two reverse arguments ,
    1/ another Country first criticise USA for FA oil & self interst type hypocacy , would simply get ignored by th US Let th US make th mistoke of playing there high & mighty stand first , then rebutal can follow
    2/ continue US cofidential diplomacy as now , as per 30 years , results not good

  17. Thanks Liam

    (“and they may do some good by using in this instance.”
    with th double edged sword working for good both ways)

    Have had Olympic Games Opening Ceromoney on all nite , magnificent dancing and presentation etc , pity one could not bottle th goodwill Liam have you seen any of it ?

  18. Drum Roll, break out the Champagne, bring on the dancing girls…

    It finally has become clear who is the big winner in the Pineapple Party takeover of the collapsed Liberal Party in Queensland. It is none other than the would be Pineapple Party candidate for Indooroopilly Geoff Greene. It continues the Pineapple Party’s theme that everybody is a winner from this merger.

    [THE outgoing director of Queensland’s newly merged Liberal National Party has negotiated a deal under which he will receive up to $115,000 in consultancy fees from party funds.

    Geoffrey Greene also negotiated a payout of 12 months’ salary and superannuation contributions, a $15,000 “career transition payment” and a $10,000 relocation allowance.

    Liberal sources claimed the departure of Mr Greene, who is associated with the Right faction led by former federal minister Santo Santoro, was part of the price demanded by Liberal moderates to accept the divisive merger of the former coalition partners.

    Details of the “suggested termination arrangements” are contained in an email sent by Mr Greene to LNP president Bruce McIver, which has been obtained by The Weekend Australian.

    Mr Greene declined to comment yesterday on whether his severance package had been finalised in accordance with the arrangements, but Liberal sources confirmed it had.

    The negotiated conditions included the continuing use of equipment — not specified in the email — for 12 months when it would be “transferred to free title”, and the transfer title of a motor vehicle.

    Other conditions included an application to the Liberals’ federal executive for a Distinguished Service Award in recognition of 15 years’ employment.

    A “positive press release in agreed terms” would be issued “announcing my decision to move on”. LNP leader Lawrence Springborg would sign a Certificate of Appreciation in agreed terms for Mr Greene’s efforts in relation to the merger.],25197,24150929-5006786,00.html

  19. Ronnie, yes, last night opening ceremony was sensational.

    The Chinese invented and gave to the World: paper, printing, gun powder and compass without even asking for IP payments.

    Diog and the likes, What about a thank you?

  20. So much for a new party with new ideas after the National Party takeover of Queensland politics. A muster of has beens, misfits and badly beaten ex candidates is now the formula being applied by the Pineapple Party.

    [Former federal politicians including Teresa Gambaro, Warren Entsch, De-Anne Kelly and Gary Hardgrave have either already expressed interest in running for a state seat or will be asked to consider re-entering politics by the party.

    Former and existing mayors and councillors – including former Cairns mayor Kevin Byrne and current Scenic Rim Mayor John Brent – have also been tipped to make the switch to state politics.],23739,24150034-3102,00.html

  21. Finns

    I logged on this morning with some trepidation. Actually, I haven’t copped it quite as badly as I thought I would. As you are well aware, I view the US’s actions over the last 50 years or so as deplorable. I think the US has caused more global misery than China during that time making itthe world champion in misery creation.

    China has made enormous contributions over history to the advance of humanity but I’m betting there hasn’t been much good in the last 100 years. They did give the 20th century its largest “mass murder” though.

    Currently, China has human rights abuses in many areas; Darfur, treatment of disidents, Tibet, Burma, Inner Mongolia, death penalty, freedom of speech and religious persecution to start with.

    You will be pleased to know that I’m reading “River Town” by Peter Hessler which is about his two years on the Yangtze River in an effort to educate myself about China. I’m open to any other reading suggestions.


    I agreed with Hillary if you recall. Just because Hillary said it doesn’t immediately make it wrong. Lots of leaders have boycotted the Opening Ceremony. I’m not even saying Rudd needed to do that but he’s over there talking about how well our Chinese friends are doing by closely monitoring the smog and that we should concentrate on the positives FFS.

  22. And to divert the torrent of abuse directed at me by St Kevin’s disciples, I will bring up the OO’s latest balanced and insightful piece on CC.

    They’re not sure we’re even getting warmer now, let alone that humans are causing it. Evidently there are sceptics who are taking apart the arguments that global warming is happening on the internet. The bottom line of the article is that both sides are engaging in selective propaganda abd we shouldn’t trust either. Therefore the OO’s long-standing policy of CC neglect is the best way to go.

    HAS global warming stopped? The question alone is enough to provoke scorn from the mainstream scientific community and from the Government, which says the earth has never been hotter. But tell that to a new army of sceptics who have mushroomed on internet blog sites and elsewhere in recent months to challenge some of the most basic assumptions and claims of climate change science.

    PS Finns I think we can write off Edwards for VP. He’s been a very bad boy.,25197,24148862-28737,00.html

  23. Diogenes I can’t see any torrent of abuse being sustained, as far as I am concerned the long running human rights abuses by Chinese authorities are indefensible.

  24. Just wondering; who is acting PM at the moment? I would assume Gillard but I thought she was heading over to the games too at some stage.

    And has there been an official reaction to the events in Georgia by the Australian government?

  25. In case anyone hadn’t noticed, Shanahan is still muttering on to himself about the likelihood of a Costello leadership with a terrified Labor party to blame… because the egged him on by criticising him!

    Keep shuffling those little pieces of paper around the desk Dennis. Every now and again something comes up, a random pattern, a serendipitous arrangement, that seems to make sort of sense.

    Scene: Dennis’s Office/Friday night

    Lbr. criticises C. … Lbr scared??? … C. senses blood …. brks. habit of lifetime … grows spine… C. family honour at stake… R. word .. (mst remem: TALK DOWN ECONOMY/every article)… Lbr. brilliant tactic? Lbr. Fatal mstke?… Oh shit… deadline alrdy… mst. write column…NOW!… hmmmm…. right….

    Count on Costello

  26. Diogenes
    “Actually, I haven’t copped it quite as badly as I thought I would.”

    Thats only because I’ve got such a gentle nature

    A big Yawn may be some posters view bloging here about humanitarian abuses Thats there right to think that , but Sir Kevin doesn’t think that way Kevin Rudd did what NO leadr in th world would hav th courage to do , make a human rights spech in manderin in China Who to ? to China’s brainiest & brightest University students at a Chinese Uni no less So I think its a legit polical topic here

    World humanitarian issues and abuses can not be addressed as one liners Multi level issues ar involved some complexly inter-connected What happened was each tome I addressed one , another “front” would open , like a jugglar show

    Diogenes you said yourself you wish to “wedge” me in #40 on it Wedging me was like Howard’s wedgies on Rudd , picking one just Weetie out of a breakfast bowl instead of eating th lot with all dynamics considered

    You ar correct you supported my Hillary view for US to intimate boyvcott of opening ceromony to highlight Tibet against th Mr Oiliness’s flaky public view to say nothing (with Gilligans brigade cheering Oiliness’s p.iss weak stanse) But what you did not consider is we in ‘oz’ a middle ranking Country needed to take a diferent approach , firm diplomacy Rudd did so via his above Uni speech and per Vera’s #17 detailed post So Kevin 07 approach is corect also and I support it

    BUT BUT , humaniterian abuse is an embarassing see saw Who is not blameless ? Who has been th worst human rights ofender ? Partisan support for one Country may ignore THERE human rights abuses , whilst hypocriticaly critisising another Countrys human rights abuses , which was FINNS valid point
    (which I was aware of but it needed stating as Amigo did)

    US is one of th worst compliant players of human rights abuses , so we should not be blinkered USA is happy to send troops to liberate Kuwait (and its oil) , but not to Rwanda , Muabe’s Zimbarbee and for years th absolute genocide of Sebia/Croatia , US overtly and covertly has supported Israeli’s human rights abuses against Palestinians for ovr 40 years ! South Africa’s 3 million whites dominated over 20 million black South Africans for decades with no US troops coming , Famines tragicaly with millions dying from starvation in Darfur etc and US sits idly by Then Iraq and 3000,000 civilians dead So Tibet is not OK , but neither is all of th above abuses , most of which grotequely worser in human deaths & abuses

    USA COULD have prevented alot of these human rights abuses , if there was oil there or it was in US’s self interest , and so is grossly guilty of inflicting directly or compliently beeing idle of large scale human rights abuses

    Queston is what should be done , or do nothing Sir Kevin’s couragous firm diplomatic stanse is our contrbution But unless th USA makes a non oil based public stand nothing realiticaly will World wide change for oppessed humans BUT like a boomarang USA has to wear th valid inevitable criticism back of it own hypocrital abuse (direct caused & by non action caused) of hiuman rights abuses USA is our “mother in law” , we hav to hav her warts and all as she protects us ‘ hopefuly’ and is economically benefical , she our mother in law is in our family but we did not marry her Blame is easy to throw around , but harder to reely remedy

  27. FINNS

    August 9th, 2008 at 7:57 am
    “Ronnie, yes, last night opening ceremony was sensational.”

    Magnificent yes it was ! I’m sure my #81 post may hav upset pro and anti american blogers here , leaving me in my barbarian cave , but at least th cave solar heated

  28. ron

    I think the US has so little credibility on the world stage regarding human rights abuses that anything George Bush says carries absolutely no moral weight. Sadly under the Rodent, we ended up with no credibility as well but Rudd is restoring our standing in the world.

    Hence their current protests about Russia’s treatment of Georgia where yet another ethnic cleansing appears to be happening with 1400 dead. I have no idea of the rights and wrongs of the situation in Georgia but I can be damn sure what the US says is pure self-serving BS.

  29. “brings back some fond memories of nov 11 and some not so fond ”


    Fond memories, as Grand Old Elephant said, of so many outraged over what happened and the way it happened, not so fond as GOF also said, this outrage didn’t translate into votes.

  30. rod

    “brings back some fond memories of nov 11 and some not so fond ”

    None for me at all , and reminders of th brilliant Kerr’s Kerr speech only rekindles latent rage , and outage trashing democracy

    And as for Gough th great having a magnificnt steak for lunch , just showed his strong ‘ticker’ under presure , and reinforces th Country’s loss , especialy with our Ipswich kid Hayden rsponsibly in charge of Treasury

  31. BB @ 80,
    Inspired by your comment, I actually took the rare (for me) step of reading a Shanahan article. Not a very impressive piece, I won’t bother again for a while.
    I have a question though, for you or others who have been following the story more closely than I have:
    Were the ministers’ comments about Costello (a) in response to specific questions, or (b) reasonably spontaneous?
    If (a) then I agree with you, what is Shanahan going on about? Of course Rudd Govt Ministers aren’t going to say “Yes, he was great, let’s have him back”!
    If (b) then various senior Ministers do seem to be spending more time than is normal (or healthy) thinking about Pete’s career plans. Which would make you think, why?

  32. I thought Dennis’ piece complete tosh, laughed about the claim the gov’t ministers were afraid of Costello. Of course they’d have a folder of talking points about him. Gawd, it wouldn’t be hard.
    Jennifer Hewett’s article with the Hamlet “Will he? Won’t he?” angle was even funny, and deliberately so.

  33. B.S.F. @ 79. Julia is Acting PM at the moment. I think she’s on Insiders tomorrow, which I’ll actually watch, as I think she’s just such good value. I’ve not seen anything in either The Age or The Oz papers about Australia’s reaction to what is happening in Georgia, or heard anything on the ABC today.

  34. Diogenes, I think diplomacy with China over its human rights record is quite tricky. From the Chinese point of view, they’ve had an unhappy experience of being invaded, colonised, humiliated and exploited by both Western countries and the Japanese, so they have quite a bit of ammunition concerning how other countries have treated the Chinese people, not to mention how other countries , such as ours, treat their own people, e.g., the Aborigines. Glass houses and all that.

  35. ron

    I remember the day and time and how I heard Gough was dismissed, like yanks remember about JFK, also recall where I was when I heard about Dianna.

    Funny, there is a connection between the two, but not to be discussed on Williams blog.

  36. Dyno @ 87:

    All the copmments about Costello from ministers that I saw were (a)… responses to specific questions. Not one spontaneous comment.

    This was one of the (many) flaws in Dennis’s article: he represented Labor comments in response to questions as fear-and-trembling oozing out of their every pore. Just wasn’t the case at all. Ask them a question, and they’ll provide an answer. But I don’t think Labor is scared of Costello. Quite the contrary IMHO. And I think Cozzie knows that full well.

    Rx @ 88:

    “Wishful thinking” = those little pieces of paper Dennis shuffles around on his desk in his basement.

  37. Bushfire Bill, I agree. I reckon Julia would be licking her lips at the prospect of lining Costello up in her sights and I reckon it’s probably Costello who’s quivering in his boots. Typical bully, take away the props and he’s revealed to be a coward.

  38. BB

    Shanahan said is likely Costello doesn’t know what he’s going to do.

    He’s pointing to the Great Undecider – and blowing up a puff-piece about what a Fearsome Leader he would be.

    Well, maybe … but he’d have to decide what to have for breakfast first, what suit to wear, then the courageous decision: whether he should take a brolly or not …

  39. For those interested in the “war” in South Ossetia, here’s a good summary from the BBC of what the issues are. From an Oz POV, the important thing is that NATO don’t get drawn into it, which seems to be what Georgia is hoping for.

    As a point of order, why does the PM have to be in Australia? In this day and age, does it really matter in a practical sense where he is? Or it it a legal thing to avoid having a government in exile.

  40. I hope this is just an isolated event and not part of a larger scheme.

    An American tourist has been killed and another injured when a Chinese man attacked them at an historic monument in Beijing on the first full day of Olympic competition.

    The man attacked the two Americans as well as their Chinese guide at the historic Drum Tower monument, a popular tourist site.

    After the attack, the assailant then committed suicide by jumping off the second story of the monument.

    American tourist killed in Beijing: state media

  41. Best thing that could happen is Costello takes over and the LNP get thrashed at the next election causing them to rethink, rebuild and put away extremist/corrupt politics. [aka NT politics!]

    The likes of Minchin, Abbott, Andrews, Ruddock etc are a blot on Australian politics and it is their type of thinking that needs to be expunged.

    Unfortunately the murdoch munchkins are determined to undermine Labor and up sell the LNP regardless of their vileness and lack of real talent.

  42. Thomas , they to me represent a set of polical US consevative values , where peope hav to fend for themselves or sink , and business of Government is business to make a profit as only criteria

    Shanahan strikes me as an ideaologue , who specializes in spining each ‘oz’ article to th Liberals without regard for actual reality of each given event So we get interest rates going dowwn (thats bad) , Rudd uncreases his Poll lead (talk aboot PPM) , CC is a positve for Labor (talk CC denial and cost of CC) , Nelson’s leadership in disaray (then talk about Cossie)

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