Newspoll: 57-43

The Australian reports Newspoll has Labor’s lead back up to 57-43 after two fortnights at 55-45. No figures yet provided to back up its headline “Costello wanted as leader”. Hat tip yet again to James J.

UPDATE: Graphic here. It shows Peter Costello’s rating as preferred Liberal leader up to 41 per cent from 23 per cent in April (wrongly labelled in the graphic as April 2007), Brendan Nelson up from 15 per cent to 18 per cent and Malcolm Turnbull down from 25 per cent to 24 per cent – bearing in mind that 19 per cent has been freed up because Julie Bishop and Tony Abbott were not included in the question this time.

UPDATE 2 (31/7/08): Further attitudinal polling, including the finding that the Prime Minister is 3 per cent less experienced than he was six months ago.

UPDATE 3: Suggested Newspoll question format for next time: Is Rudd experienced? Has he ever been experienced?

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,444 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43”

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  1. I actually think it might help the LP to get Costello in the seat in some ways.
    The reception they give JWH obviously shows they still don’t have a handle on what happened last year, and the faster the old team gets burnt down the better the chances of new growth springing up.
    It’s the nature of the rusted on support that worries me – from both parties. It seriously distorts the true policy and candidate positions.

    sondeo – Bill Leak has been on fire recently

  3. The LNP standing will increase with Costello because he is an authority figure from the past that never got himself into too much trouble. Even if they don’t like they assume a higher degree of competence with him.

    He however doesn’t have the personal fire power to match it with Labor. Costello is the one trick pony and without Treasury to brief him he has nothing to say on anything. He wouldn’t be much better than Nelson though his media mates will certainly promote him as the once and future king and denigrate Rudd and co. There will be no reference to reality in this of course – there is only one goal for the murdoch media – get the Liberals back in power.

  4. Muskiemp

    #1192
    “It seems that Costello thinks that he is The man
    PETER Costello has flown back into the country, convinced the Liberal Party has finally decided he is the only leader who can take it to the next election with any chance of defeating Prime Minister Kevin Rudd.”

    He does think like that , born to rule , waiting to be ‘drafted’
    Chanel 7 & 9 News reported Fed Liberals thinking that way Ihnteresting per Garys link , Michele Grattan does not , thinks he’s finishing his book & then off , normaly would back her sourses

  5. ESJ

    I note the passing of Solzhenitsyn.

    On a more schadenfreude note, GM in the US lost $15B in one quarter. Frankly, it serves them right. They stuffed up big when they crushed their electric cars.

    And in counterbalance, Exxon made a US record quarterly profit of $11B. I’m sure there is a pithy comment I could make if I knew something about economics.

    GM’s quarterly loss hits $15.5bn
    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24115034-913,00.html

  7. I recall reading a NY Times article of the early 1900s around 1910 or so that the majority of cars on show were steam or electric. I tried Googling some of the names but came up blank. I guess they oil industry got hold of govt pretty soon.

    [Aside: Mary Pickford was a great fan of the cars – being also the first person in a car chase on film (driving) in US films.]

  10. “around 1910 or so that the majority of cars on show were steam or electric. I tried Googling some of the names but came up blank. I guess they oil industry got hold of govt pretty soon.”

    Big Oily exxons also buy out any competing technology , never been convinced all new ‘inventions’ to replace Oily cars were all unfinanical Very big Dangers there is R E new industries in future geting taken over by Big Oily Exxons & “wharehoused” (for ever)

    Read thank link of ‘Solzhenitsyn Dies at 89’ , they praised power of his pen , maybe because of writing in a Soviet countrey against there system , his powers of committment & ticker were equal He must hav got all of Captain Smirk’s allocation

  11. I’ve been saying since the election that I thought Cossie would chuck his hat into the leadership ring before the next one, but the longer this circus drags on the more I’m coming to the view that he’s going and the frenzy is just to generate interest in the novel.

    I can’t see how he could keep up the coy ploy beyond Friday without damaging whatever credibility he still has. Nor is it doing the party any favours, either. Appearing enigmatic is one thing, looking like a deer caught in the headlights, something else. The next few days will be telling, IMHO.

  13. ron

    It’s interesting to look at the novelists they compare Solzhenitsyn’s importance to the 20th Century to. He is bunched with Orwell and Koestler, both of whom were political novelists primarily. The power of the pen is still at it’s greatest and most influential when discussing politics.

  14. One Day In The Life Of Ivan Denisovich was part of my political awakening.

    This seems an appropriate quote, from Solzhenitsyn’s Nobel acceptance speech:

    “And the simple step of a simple courageous man
    is not to take part in the lie, not to support deceit.
    Let the lie come into the world, even dominate the world,
    but not through me.”

  15. MayoFeral

    I’m with you there,I can’t see him staying, but if he were too, something would have to be confirmed soon. The oppn is dying a death of a thousand cuts right before our eyes. Surely along with all the other baggage he carries, he would be seen as having left the first year for DrWHo? to carry the can which cant be anything but gutless, and then f#(ks em around for abit while he makes up his mind.

  16. Saw Smirks wife on morning news. She was on the footpath, outside their house with pen and notepad in hand demanding the reporter’s name and who he worked for and all in a high and mighty voice trying to threaten him. Her and bully boy Smirk make a good couple. Not a good look for a potential First lady I’d have thought.
    How would she handle the like of the feral press packs that were parked outside of Mark Lathams place for weeks on end. Call in the guys in hoods with their dogs and like they did on the docks maybe.
    What arrogance, last time I looked public footpaths were just that PUBLIC!

  18. I thought she was the one encouraging him to stay?
    She shouldn’t have time to worry about things like that – she’s still on 6 figures at ANZ isn’t she?

  20. Nelson should call a leadership spill and IMHO he would eliminate Cossie from the equation. Force his hand now. I think Cossie would crumble. He would at least have some chance against Turnbull.
    Nelson would lose the leadership but that is going to happen anyway. He should go out using a “crash through or crash” approach and not just bend over and take it.

  21. Vera :
    “What arrogance, last time I looked public footpaths were just that PUBLIC!”

    Agree Vera , what Vera also saying Classified i think is IF it suited Cossie’s interests , she would not be complaining at all And to add my bit , had he th courage 3 months ago to get out or challenge then it woulod hav been over 3 months ago , so today our Press would not even be there

  23. What are the chances of Newspoll or one of the polling organisations slipping in questions next time whereby they substitute Cossie as the leader of the Libs and pit him against Rudd? I’d say pretty good.

  24. Garry
    #1223

    good point , now we will see if th Polls are independent OR ar driven by Agenda setting consevative Media moguls ?

  27. Nelson is too weak within his own party to demand Cozzie puts up or shuts up. And Cozzie is too piss weak to challenge unless it’s a cert.

    Meanwhile the Liberal Party goes to hell in a handbasket.

    Costello knows the boot is on the other foot now. His congenital fear of failure in Question Time (after being pumped up as the best ever QT’er) at the hands of Rudd, Swan, Tanner and Julia must be giving him paroxysms of anxiety.

    Nelson is forced to say that whatever Peter wants is OK by him. Is Nelson a man or a mouse? Does he have no pride?

    Meanwhile the voters are getting ready for another collective yawn in the Days Of Our Lives saga that is Costello ambition versus Costello’s doubts about himself.

    It almost makes Turnbull look more like an acceptable choice. He at least seems to have some nerve, plus a brain to go with it. You get the feeling that some kind of dialogue could be opened up with Turnbull. But with Nelson or Costello it’d just be more chest-beating, tough-guy stuff, with both of them trying to emulate the mythical Costello, rather than the real one, cowering in the corner playing hard-to-get.

  31. B Bill-
    have to say that watching qanda the other night I felt somewhat more positive about Malcs.
    I think he is probably a resaonably progressive thinker stuck in a party that is in a time warp. I suspect he would appeal to the Wets which is what the Libs need to do if they are ever going to climb out of the slime. Mind you I’d prefer they stay right where they are- irrelevant.

  32. Jen, the answer is serious investment in quality assurance. All chairs must be pre-sniffed before shipping. If any evidence of use is detected, the chair is sent directly to the seconds bin.

    Harvey Norman could only dream about a commitment to quality of this kind.

  35. [I think he is probably a resaonably progressive thinker stuck in a party that is in a time warp]

    And that’s just it. He has no hope of moving the party to his way of thinking as long as the party is dominated by the right, even if he became leader.

  36. Scorpio – that explains it 😉

    Dario – they have no choice. the Neocons that have held the reigns to date are finished. It just seems like it’s taking the rest of them a while to wake up to it.
    Hope it takes them a whole lot longer 😆

  38. [Vera, News Limited doesn’t own The West Australian (if I’m understanding you correctly).]

    I think she may mean the Sunday Times will be campaigning for Barnett (along with The West of course, if Fat Cat stood for the Libs, they’d be campaigning for him too :-))

  39. MInd you, if the Libs manage to get a reasonably moderate leader the difference between Kevin and another conservative will be even less.
    That;’s when teh Greens will come into their own and the environmental issues that Labour has squibbed on will be more of an issue, rather than just trying to drag the country back up out of the dirt as the last election did.

  40. Jen, the problem being the majority of Australians don’t feel strongly enough about the environment for it to be a real vote-getter. The Greens are a sad replacement for the Democrats. Here’s hoping they broaden their talent pool in elections to come.

  42. LTEP- the indictment is against people for not giving a stuff until it is too late.
    The Greens have attracted lots of former Dems- some of them are quite senior in the party now,and the Dems did themselves in by becoming a pale shadow of the Libs – something the Greens are in NO danger of ever doing.

  43. Will somebody please, please tell me why I see people in blogs all over the place using “teh” instead of “the”?

  46. The Democrats were never a ‘pale shadow’ of the Liberal Party. One thing that they did become, however, were good parliamentarians and legislators with an extremely broad policy base. With the Greens, apart from a focus on the environment there’s nothing much there. At some times it feels that unless an issue has an environmental effect they are not terribly concerned. They are completely disinterested in economic issues, which is a shame given that the two major parties need someone to hold them to account as far as that is concerned.

    It’ll certainly be interesting to see where they take the new Senate, but I still feel as if a huge hole will be left with the departure of the Democrats.

    That being said I’d rather the Greens any day over the possibility of more Family First senators. The ALP should still be hanging their heads in shame at the abomination that is Senator Fielding.

  47. lol… jen…I almost typed “instade” in that last post :grimmace: so your not alone 🙂

    but it can’t be that for all the other times I’ve seen people use “teh” and I just hate not being in on the joke 😉

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