Darwinian evolution

The Poll Bludger’s guide to the August 9 Northern Territory election is now in business, as indeed is Antony Green’s definitive effort. It is tempting to dismiss the election as a foregone conclusion, with the Country Liberal Party needing to increase its representation in the 25-member Legislative Assembly from four to 13, and looking in no state to do so. The four-member parliamentary party is currently headed by the recycled Terry Mills, whose first stint last term ended with him admitting he was “not up to the job”. The leadership was then resumed by former Chief Minister Denis Burke, who led the party to a defeat so disastrous that he lost his own seat with a 20.9 per cent swing.

The electoral pendulum clearly points to four seats which are low-hanging fruit for the CLP, two having been made notionally theirs by redistribution (by the reckoning of Antony Green, who cautions that such calculations for the Territory’s small electorates can be heavily influenced by arbitrary split booth estimates). On the CLP side of the ledger are the Palmerston seat of Drysdale, where Labor member Chris Natt who has built a high profile as Mines Minister, and the outer Darwin rural seat of Goyder, which Ted Warren won in 2005 with a 16.4 per cent swing. The two Labor seats are the erstwhile CLP strongholds of Brennan (Burke’s old seat, located in Palmerston) and the Darwin city seat of Port Darwin.

Anything beyond that requires a double-digit swing. However, candidate factors are notoriously important when the average enrolment per electorate is less than 5000, so consideration needs to be given to the three Labor seats not being contested by sitting members. These include Clare Martin’s electorate of Fannie Bay (margin 15.7 per cent) and former deputy leader Syd Stirling’s seat of Nhulunbuy (25.5 per cent). Fannie Bay was held by the CLP before Martin won it at a by-election in 1995, and will be contested this time by Garry Lambert, who until recently was lord mayor of Darwin. Nhulunbuy on the other hand is Labor’s safest seat, and the CLP’s nomination of a local indigenous leader in a seat dominated by a mining town does not suggest they are confident. Of more interest is the new seat of Fong Lim, to be contested for the CLP by David Tollner, the recently defeated federal member for Solomon. Labor’s candidate Matthew Bonson is the member for abolished Millner, which provides the new seat with fewer than half its voters.

Two naturally conservative seats are held by independents, one of whom is retiring. Loraine Braham is a former CLP member who has held her Alice Springs seat of Braitling for two elections as an independent, and is now bowing out. Braham won Braitling only narrowly in 2005, and it seems likely to return to the CLP despite Braham’s endorsement of independent Eli Melky. However, the CLP is unlikely to have much luck in the outer Darwin seat of Nelson against sitting independent Gerry Wood, who won lost time by 16.2 per cent. One other seat that might warrant scrutiny is Sanderson in northern Darwin, where Labor member Len Kiely has proved a subject of controversy: first when he was stripped of the Deputy Speaker position in July 2006 over a sexual harrassment incident, and then in November 2007 when Paul Henderson overlooked his indiscretion to reward him with a cabinet post as Environment Minister. Any further gains for the CLP would be greatly surprising, remembering that surprises do happen in Territory elections.

It would thus seem that the rosiest scenario for the CLP involves them retaining their four actual seats and two notional ones, further picking up two Labor marginals, prevailing against the odds in Fannie Bay, Fong Lim and Sanderson, and recovering Braitling from Loraine Braham. That would put them one seat short of a majority, leaving independent Gerry Wood with the swing vote. However, it seems much more likely that their gains will be limited to about four – and this assumes they do not lose their existing seat of Katherine, where member Fay Miller is retiring and her nominated successor has just had to stand aside due to staff bullying allegations. Two very different voices could be heard on ABC Darwin radio on Monday estimating a CLP gain of four seats: Ken Parish, former Labor MP and Club Troppo blogger, and Peter Murphy, former adviser to multiple CLP Chief Ministers.

UPDATE (28/7/08): Candidates and ballot paper order have been announced by the NT Electoral Commission. At first glance, the most noteworthy independents appear to be Eli Marky in Braitling, who has the endorsement of outgoing member Loraine Braham; Katherine councillor Toni Tapp Coutts in the vacated seat of Katherine; and Randall Gould, former mayor of the recently abolished Tennant Creek Town Council, in Barkly.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

77 comments on “Darwinian evolution”

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  1. I would not give Dave Tollner as much chance as some might. He is not that well regarded locally, more perceived as a bit of a dud as a pollie really, which is why he lost his seat at the last federal election against a newcomer.

    Peter Murphy is a pretty hard core conservative with a newspaper column, who (not surprisingly) has a long history of critical opposition to almost anything the Labor government does. Although his assessment of four seats is close to the mark, I would take most of his opinions with a grain of salt. Ken Parish, on the other hand, is from the hard nosed Labor right, and is generally quite realistic and balanced, and not afraid to take the stick to his own side.

    Brennan and Braitling will be also be interesting to watch. I would not be surprised to see Brennan stay Labor (though not by much), and Braitling remain independent (despite it notionally and historically being CLP country).

  2. You are being most unfair by dumping on Tollner for losing his seat amid the rout that was the 2007 election.

    The result in Solomon did take many observers by surprise: not because Tollner lost, but because he nearly won.

  3. Is there really only one Green contesting, or have others just not nominated yet? Not knowing much NT politics, is it fair to say, that even in 5000 people electorates, all seats will be CLP/ALP/IND?

  4. Phil 4 The Greens will be having a number of candidates for the NT election. The Greens have Aldermen elected on both the Alice Springs and Darwin City Councils.

  5. 3
    David Walsh Says:
    You are being most unfair by dumping on Tollner for losing his seat amid the rout that was the 2007 election.

    He did lose against a complete newcomer to politics, even with the much vaunted incumbency and high profile factors on his side. His track record in politics is patchy at best, and I know CLP stalwarts who are not happy with him. He has stood in Territory elections as an independent against CLP members before (and lost, to one of the CLP’s least inspiring MPs ever, Chris Lugg).

    Mr Bowe and Mr Green would know for sure, but I think you will also find that the NT does not necessarily follow national trends in federal elections.

    The result in Solomon did take many observers by surprise: not because Tollner lost, but because he nearly won.

    Don’t agree with that at all. Hale’s victory was never a given and was never expected to be by a large margin if he did win (and it was small margin, just 196 votes). The most you could say about Hale’s chances before the election was that he had a chance.

  6. Be interested to see how Mills goes, being small electorates he needs only @ 200 people to change their vote and he loses his seat.

    Relying only on memory it does appear that more liberal conservative leaders have lost their seats than labor, Howard and Bruce federally, Burke in the NT and I think Wran knocked a couple off McDonald and one other in NSW. But don’t know of any labor leaders that have suffered the same fate?

  7. 6
    I agree just me, The CLP also ran alot of adds on top of the Liberal adds, basically a Tollner add on telly every 5 minutes, He wont get that same personal media buy this time.
    Though he wont have to compete with the LDP preferencing Labor either.

  8. re: Rod @ #9
    [I think Wran knocked a couple off McDonald and one other in NSW]

    Peter Coleman (Peter Costello’s father-in-law) lost his seat as Liberal leader in 1978 NSW Election.
    Bruce McDonald lost his seat to Ted Mack (ind) in 1981 election.

  9. Don’t agree with that at all. Hale’s victory was never a given and was never expected to be by a large margin if he did win (and it was small margin, just 196 votes). The most you could say about Hale’s chances before the election was that he had a chance.

    Hale was ahead of Tollner on the ballot. I’d lay money on the donkey vote getting Hale over the line.

    Though he wont have to compete with the LDP preferencing Labor either.

    I was the LDP candidate for Solomon. I did double preferencing, a la the Democrats of yesteryear. As it happens my preferences split fairly evenly.

  10. and the fish bite early.

    which brings me to my next point.

    i think that Hale won when he said that tollner “was like a barra on a boat ramp” inin regard to flipflopping on an issue in the debate.

  11. Liberal Bob Cheek lost his seat at the 2002 Tasmanian election. Nationalist (ex-Labor) William Holman was Premier when he lost his seat seat at the 1920 NSW election. What’s remarkable about Cheek and Holman was that both lost their seats at Hare-Clark elections, so they were both less popular than party colleagues.

    WA Nationalist Premier James Mitchell lost his seat at the 1933 WA election. What was interesting was that the incoming Labor government appointed him Lieutenant Governor. This saved money by not appointing an expensive imported British Governor, and he continued in the roll until the British government finally agreed to appoint him as the full-time Governor in 1948.

    George V opposed the appointment of Isaac Isaacs as the first G-G, and so the states backed off trying to get locals appointed as Governor in the 1930s. Appointing a Lieutant-Governor was an easier option. After the war, the NSW government had a huge argument with Downing Street about trying to get an Australian appointed as NSW Governor. In the post war period, the UK government was overloaded with surplus to requirement Generals and Admirals, and the colonies were viewed as useful sinecures, so upstart colonials trying to appoint locals were not appreciated.

  12. The first NT Chief Minister Goff Letts lost his seat at the 1977 Territory election. As with James Mitchell in WA, every member of Cabinet lost their seat.

  13. Antony , the first Chief Minister was always and will forever be Paul Everingham, not Goff Letts.. Letts was father of the Country Party in the Territory and lost his seat in 1977 prior to self government and was known as Majority Leader of the Legislative Assembly…. ( His loss has comparisms of the Howard defeat -a leader losing his seat that is ), but he was well looked after for many years under the CLP administration.. and along with Porky was probably known as legend in his own lunchtime..

  14. Oh, and Antony, I think you meant to say that George V questioned the choice of Isaac Isaacs as the first _Australian_ to be appointed Governor-General–obviously he wasn’t the first Governor-General (that was the Earl of Hopetoun).

  15. “It will be up to the Police Commissioner to determine in consultation with other key stakeholders, including his own officials, and in the case of the police beat shop front, the Alice Springs Town Council, Chamber of Commerce and presumably mall traders and other people in the CBD, where those resources should be deployed,”

    ….and so said Araluen Labor candidate John Gaynor – until last week “Senior” Advisor to the Chief Minister (and perhaps better placed than any opposition MP to have had influence in such matters over the past 3 years), boasting how he will get Police numbers increased in Alice Springs.

    The writers of “The Hollowmen” must be following this guy around – oh dear oh dear me!!!

  16. Antony – not quite right, others that went on to be part of the first parliament from that assembly included ….

    Paul Everingham CLP Jingili 1974-1984 – First Chief Monster
    Nick Dondas CLP Casuarina 1974-1994
    Dawn Lawrie Independent Nightcliff 1974-1983 _ Mother of current Treasurer Delia Lawrie.
    Les MacFarlane CLP Elsey 1974-1983
    Marshall Perron CLP Stuart Park 1974-1995
    Jim Robertson CLP Gillen 1974-1986
    Roger Steele CLP Ludmilla 1974-1990
    Ian Tuxworth CLP Barkly 1974-1990
    Roger Vale CLP Stuart 1974-1994

    There could be more , I’m not sure, but to say Everingham only became Chief because of others losing seats isn’t historically correct..

  17. Paul Everingham CLP Jingili 1974-1984

    Goodness me. Is it really nearly a quarter century since Porky was running the joint? How time flies when you’re having fun.

  18. I said everyone ahead of him in the queue lost their seats and that is historically correct. Of that list, only Perron and Tuxworth served in the Executive before 1977 and Everingham had served as Deputy Leader. Leader Letts, Deputy Leader Tambling, and Executive members Andrew, Pollock and Ryan were all defeated.

    Where I was wrong was in saying all the Executive members lost their seats. When I checked Everingham, Perron and Tuxworth had all served periods in the Letts Executive and didn’t lose their seats. So Mitchell’s ministry remains the one where all Cabinet members were defeated.

  19. Wasn’t the 1st NT Parliament a unanimous CLP Parliament, with no Labor or Ind members? I guess that would have been the one elected in 1974, not 1977.

  20. A new independent candidate hitting the beat this week.

    Justin Tutty, environmentalist extraodinaire, is putting up for Drysdale.

  21. Thanks for the info Antony and William

    Not as rare as I thought, but does appear more conservative leaders knocked off than labor, Cheek and Holman lost their seats being less popular than their party members as appears the case with Howard who suffered a slightly bigger swing than the national average.

    Maybe Lennon would have been another to go if he hadn’t stepped down.

    If Mills and Buswell lose their seats will give labor a unique trifecta of three in a row and certainly create some despair in the libs.

    I think that Wran was one of the most ruthless in the game, seeing off five lib leaders, Wran wouldn’t just crush them, he would crush and destroy them.

    However Howard comes first for political cleverness, I would credit him with being the the main force behind the demise of the democrats and One Nation and he had his sights set on labor and the greens next. Wran may have got rid of opposition leaders but Howard got rid of rival parties.

  22. Joh Bjelke-Petersen shares with Wran the record of ‘seeing off’ five opposition leaders (Houston, Tucker, Burns, Casey, and Wright).

  23. Joh saw off five and Tucker lost his seat, challenged Joh to call an election and he did, but Joh had the benefit of the gerrymander in his elections.

  24. Nominations for the elections closed at 12.00pm today and at close it emerged that NT Labor has won the seats of Arnhem and Macdonnell as Alison Anderson
    and Malarndirri McCarthy are the only nominees for these seats.

    This is a real signifier that the Country Liberals or CLP (because they failed to get their name change in on time) have neither the resources or personnel to mount campaigns in the bush.

  25. The debacle whereby the once all-powerful CLP cannot field candidates (for the first time ever) in NT seats is truly the begining of the end for this very successful political party.

    Prediction: At the next Territory Election or indeed the next Federal Election there will be two conservative parties in the NT – the old CLP confined to defending Alice seats and a ‘new’ Shane Stone inspired Liberal Party trying to pick up the conservative pieces elsewhere.

    Labor will romp in the 2008 election (at worst losing no more than three seats, likely less) and the recriminations for the CLP will be dire.

  26. If anybody’s still interested in leaders who lost their own seats, here are two more: Les Norman, Victorian Liberal leader, lost his seat at the 1952 election (to Tom Hollway, himself a former Liberal Premier); and Charles Blunt, Nationals leader, who lost his seat at the 1990 Federal election.

  27. Antony,

    I think you will find that the real challenge in Barkly will come from Randall Gould, the ex-Mayor.

    In fact… its the sleeper of this election.

  28. How well known is he in Borroloola and outback indigenous communities? Less than a third of the votes are taken in Tennant Creek, the rest are collected by mobiles. Labor polled 74% of the primary vote in Mobiles in 2005, so unless he has someone turning up at every mobile location, he’ll be lucky to get many votes at all.

  29. He won’t win on name. He can only win on organisation. You have to be in every community as the mobile booths come around.

  30. Tennant Creek Council didn’t get such a great reputation with locals as there was some dodgy deals done and now that there is two indigenous MLA’s who can help out around the fringes I don’t think it will be as close as you think.

  31. Yes, having Malarndirri Mccarthy free to campaign around Borroloola and Roper River will be a huge advantage as that’s where her people are from.

  32. Antony, (or anyone) how long has it been since there has been a candidate elected unopposed in a general election? I know it used to happen frequently, but I can’t remember in the time I’ve been involved in politics.

    It’s presumably going to make territory-wide 2pp votes a bit hard to calculate, as well as Antony’s point about leaving candidates free to campaign elsewhere.

    The 19 day minimum time period for NT elections is presumably partly at fault. It really is appalling. Granted there was some warning this time, but it was generally thought there would be a few more weeks. I imagine this contributed to the number of Green candidates falling from 10 to 6.

  33. The 19 day election period has also been affected by the two public holidays, one last week and one next week.

    There has to be some concern that democracy is being compromised by the early call and the absence of voter choice, let alone having the trigger being a could-be/may-be gas plant.

  34. Campbell Sharman (formerly of UWA, now at University of British Columbia) published a paper on uncontested seats in 2003:

    Uncontested Seats and the Evolution of Party Competition, Party Politics, 9:6, pp 679-702 (2003)

    It looked at all states and the Commonwealth, but not the NT. The last time seats were uncontested were 1983 in WA, 1981 in NSW, 1966 in Qld, 1965 in SA, 1955 in Victoria and federally, and 1906 in Tasmania. No doubt there has been a more recent example in NT – Antony will hopefully get back to us on that. It’s still quite common in Tasmanian upper house elections.

  35. Stephen L

    46

    “The 19 day minimum time period for NT elections is presumably partly at fault.”

    Not really. For mobile polling in remote seats you really need to have a well-established network based in the Communities. Often two teams from the electoral commission will be operating in a remote seat simultaneously – so unless you are well-organised it is extremely difficult.

    Also considering that Alison and Malarndirri are extremely popular within their electorates – other potential candidates probably felt it wasn’t worth the time or effort.

    As I said yesterday the CLP obviously don’t have the resources (people or money). They might however regret that decision when they see Alison and Malarndirri providing support to other ALP members. They are both solid campaigners.

  36. Grace, I’m sure both McCarthy and Anderson will be helping the Labor candidate in Barkly.

    The last uncontested candidate I know if John Hatton in in NSW, 1981
    http://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/resources/nswelectionsanalysis/1981/SouthCoast.htm

    I don’t doubt that one occured in WA in 1983, but 1977-86 in WA is one of my blank spots in terms of electoral records.

    Let me tell you, we’ve been scratching our heads at the ABC with how to deal with the two uncontested seats. I designed the software in 1991, but we don’t have an option for uncontested seats. My work around is to give the electorate an enrolment of ‘1’, and give the sitting member/only candidate 1 vote. That allows the computer to give the seat away with 100% counted, without interfering with the toal vote or turnout in the other 23 seats. How our website copes with it I don’t know, because that software was only written in the last 5 years. It will work on most pages, but no doubt we’ll get some page that plays up.

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