Presidential election minus 17 weeks

A new home for another fortnight or so’s worth of top quality US election repartee. I’m only one minor irritation away from pulling the plug on these threads, so please try not to annoy me (annoy each other by all means, but not me).

UPDATE (9/7/2008): After careful reflection, I have decided this will be the final US election thread. It will close for business in a week’s time, at which point American politics will be declared off-topic across the site. Many thanks for your co-operation.

UPDATE: (10/7/2008): New US site open for business. Thanks to Catrina for getting this off the ground.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

304 comments on “Presidential election minus 17 weeks”

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  1. Ron,
    the Florida primary is a sepearate issue to what I’ve talked about above.
    I realise that you’re ticked off about it not being counted and you’re entitled to that view, but I’m more interested in talking about what I’ve just posted in response to Jen right now.
    I’m not following the point of your last line – you seem to be saying that Aussies make a “voluntary” effort as we are educated that it is compulsory – isn’t that a contradiction in terms?

  2. 247
    William Bowe

    OK, I’m up for it.

    But one question:

    A political forum for quarrelsome Australians who presume to understand what’s going on in America

    …is a curious headline banner. Considering that at least one ‘expert’, (you know who!) got it so absolutely deadset wrong it ain’t funny, whilst many humble bloggers got it absolutely right regarding the Democratic nominee.

    So isn’t it a slightly spiteful barb? For surely we don’t ‘presume to understand’…we actually do! (Irony alert!! LOL)

  3. oh yes, Mistress Catrina!

    That’ll sort out the miscreants! LOL

    (I think you’d make a lovely Blogmistress, firm, but fair! LOL)

  4. Optimist- I fully agree.
    I have to say that as corny as it may sound standing for election and being there at the booths on polling day when democracy is in action is one of the greatest priveleges I have experienced.
    I love the fact that people do or don’t tell you who they are going to vote for you , or tell you that they would never vote for a fcking greenie, while we all – Family First, Labor, Liberal , Greens whoever, stand together sharing aerogard, buying coffees for each other, handing out the How to Votes for each other while soemone nicks off to the toilet…
    not a shot fired, not a riot . We are blessed.
    We are in fact democracy in action.
    And so, by the way, is Pollbludger.

  5. Optimist

    what i was trying to suggest that here in ‘oz’ we ar compulsorilly forced to turn up , but can vote informal if we want So the ‘oz system’ does build some respect by ‘oz’ voters for an election decided by all and ‘oz’ people pretty happily ALL now come out to vote vs the US sysytem of say 55% voting and even that number inflatd by Partys using “tricks” to mobilise to mobilise their base to actualy vote My FL example was only to indicate abit of disrespect by ALL US politicnas & media for elections thats why i included even hillary /her supporters/media being laid about a 1.7 million voting election” (so i was not reffering to the actual FL debate itself , more the poor ‘laid back’ US-centric about electons themselves , so i was only using it as an example

  12. Jen,
    well said. I too have experienced the unusual comraderie that develops among the ideologically opposed on election days and it goes a long way to restoring my faith in politics (a faith that wanes on at regular intervals, sadly).

    I’m far from having a doctorate on the subject, so I might just be blowing hot air, but my understanding of the main reason the U.S doesn’t have compulsory voting is that it is considered a violation of the 1st amendment ensuring the right to free speech. As I understand the argument, compulsory voting is seen as the state compelling a citizen to “speak” through the action of voting and the 1st ammendment covers the right of a citizen to not speak as much as it does their right to speak.

    In my humble view (as I said, I don’t have a doctorate or a law degree) compulsory attendance at the polls wouldn’t necessarily constitute such a violation, however it would provide a means by which citizens could fulfill what I believe is their one, fundamental responsibility to the democracy they enjoy.

    Anyhoo, it’s just my take on things – the reality is that I can’t see a way in which it would be introduced in the U.S any time soon as the backlash from people being told they had to get off their backsides and participate in thier democracy would be enormous – as they say in the states….go figure!

  13. Ron,
    thanks for clarifying.
    Couldn’t agree more. It’s amazing to me how easily the U.S takes democracy for granted and the laid back attitude they have to voting and the general fragility of democracy – perhaps they need to be ruled by the British again, just to wake em up.

  14. Optimist- that is exactly the point that all the ABO’s are missing. Obama has mobilised an otherwise pretty indifferent electorate to get out and vote.
    That is seeing democracy in action, and that is one of the reasons I find his candidacy so amazing. The laziest, most superficial, most consumeristic nation on the planet is showing signs of giving a damn- about politics.
    for that alone the guy deserves a medal. And to be POTUS.

  15. 229
    William Bowe Says:
    July 9th, 2008 at 11:40 pm
    I mean “better” than what you write, Codger. Antony Green, Graeme Orr, Geoff Lambert, Kevin Bonham and Peter Tucker on the one hand, you on the other. Dig?

    Better? It’s your constant problem William; but nice try. As I said, you posted; people respond & you moderate, well as you see fit; but the game is where it’s at, not where you think it’s ‘better’.

    My point is that: ‘I’ve never written about environmental policy, the Iraq war and the Middle East situation, so why am I moderating discussion about it?’.

    & that’s where it’s at…You have to get to grips with that, post,moderate;don’t post.

    Simple.

    PS thanks Kirri…eccenetric

    Ron @ 232 LOL

  16. what a love in non diverse site run by a non long term politcl operative , abit of thought first might help Sometimes you ar better off with your enemies in control

  17. I’m happy to set u a thread , maybe enemys are ‘fairer’ , cetainly get diversity with rules , but would not waste my time having a competing thread , thats counter productive Guys , Catrina is enthusiastic so this is not a personal shot at th lady , but maybe some further discussion

  19. Optimist, the argument could be made that the US is more an elected monarchy, and considering the dynastic elements, the near absolute right of the current Prez to break the law with impunity, the notion of democracy is getting a fair workout.

    Throw in some severe dumbing down, a complicit press, and non-compulsory voting, and it’s descending into a caricature of a democracy pretty quickly.

    Like Jen, I’d like to see Obama’s resurgent grass roots as a sign of new wind, but it’s got to do more than just blow in November to really make a significant difference in that country.

    Boy, don’t they need to wake up, and fast.

  21. Jen,
    I’d rather not get into the ABO’s thing when it comes to compulsory attendance / voting. Don’t get me wrong, I just think that the issue is so much bigger than a single campaign. Besides, I would make the broader point that ultimately, candidates shouldn’t have to mobilise voters.
    Also, I thought that if we could get into a substantive issue like this that doesn’t revolve around our respective favourite candidates, William might be reminded that we are capable of a more deeply analytical reflection on electoral matters.

  22. Eeek, just take a look at the shareprice of Fannie Mae:

    http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?symb=FNM&sid=1899&dist=TQP_chart_date&freq=1&time=9

    …it’s what you call in the trade a death spiral.

    $70 less than a year ago, and hovering just over $16 tonight.

    So much for all the soothing words being pumped out to try and deflect the market..it’s off another 4% at the moment.

    Remember folks, this crew holds the securitisation of trillions (yes, TRILLIONS) of bucks worth of US mortgages, and they are in serious trouble.

    Start whistling in the dark….

  23. Kirri- I think that’s why we all ( millions around the world- maybe billions) have become so interested in this US election. Obama does represent a change- way bigger than he as an individual can implement, but a reaction from people who are tired of the disappointment that current “Democracy’ offers, and who want to reclaim it.
    No one can meet that expectation and hope, but that’s not the point. The real point is that there is an expression of that desire for true democracy from people around the globe, rather than a mute acceptance that nothing can change.

  24. Oh dear, John McCain gets 300 economists to endorse his fantasy economic plan, except for one little oversight:

    In interviews with more than a dozen of the signatories, Politico found that, far from embracing McCain’s economic plan, many were unfamiliar with—or downright opposed to—key details. While most of those contacted by Politico had warm feelings about McCain, many did not want to associate themselves too closely with his campaign and its policy prescriptions.

    Salon

    …so he’s just signed up their names!

    Nice one John.

  25. Optimist- can’t help myself. I am so over the “Obama isn’t perfect’ crap that I just wish people could see the bigger picture. No one, not in my life time , has inspired so much interest in the democratic process. Doesn’t really matter what he says if he can mobilise people to vote.
    And I get your motivation about us showing our analytic depth and all, but it’s late…
    night friends.

  26. 273
    jen

    Yeah, I got that feeling early from Obama; he tapped into the zeitgeist and it was powerful mojo.

    Like here, too many years of paternalistic muddling passing for government had raised the expectations and Ruddy tapped into it superbly. Mind you, he’d better start delivering or he’ll be Mr Me Too in more ways than he intended.

    These things come in cycles, so no guarantee it’ll make permanent changes, but the first step is to get it happening. The world is about to hit some monumental changes, and if the US is not leading, they’ll sink into irrelevance.

  27. KR @ 269,
    damn right.
    They need to cut through the idea that they can trust their politicians and their media or alternatively get over the notion that there is no alternative to and no hope of changing the media and politics that exist right now.

    To quote one of my all time favourite human beings, Studs Terkel:

    “I’ve always felt, in all my books, that there’s a deep decency in the American people and a native intelligence—providing they have the facts, providing they have the information.”

    I believe him, but boy oh boy, it’s hard to remember sometimes.

  28. Well it’s goodnight from me, and tomorrow a brave new world in the new bludgertoreum of the able Mistress Catrina, whip in hand, for any miscreants who step out of line!

    Oh boy, can’t wait….

  29. Jen,
    I hear ya, I really do.
    I have been an Obama supporter from the beginning and had many an argument with friends about his chances of winning the nomination (suffice it to say, I’m owed a few drinks). The “Obama isn’t perfect” routine is a boring, self-evident line that reflects the strength of his campaign in that it’s one of the few shots people can throw at him and be right about.
    Meh, I say.

    Ultimately, I think that the quote from him that appears front and centre on the campaign website says so much…..
    “I’m asking you to believe, not just in my ability to bring about real change in Washington…I’m asking you to believe in yours.”

    To my mind, its a call to arms, the subtext of which hints at the fact that you can’t simply fall in love with the idea of a candidate, watch him elected and then sit back and expect things to be hunky-dory. It points to the fact that democracy is only really effective if you participate, not just through voting but through a commitment to caring about the issues, informing yourself about them, demanding that you are represented and taking action when you are not getting that representation.

    Obama will face enormous opposition to real reform; from lobbyists, from the media, from his own party.

    If and when he is elected, any substantial changes he tries to make will only succeed with the vocal support of the peple who put him in the White House.
    If those people really believe in their power to change Washington, maybe he really will be what so many people are hoping for.

  30. Bed time now. I’ll be back tomorrow to deal with the comments on my insufferable naivety.
    For now, the short answer is….
    I refer you to my name.

  31. Site is up and running but I still have a bunch of things to do to get things ready for prime time. Stay tuned for more details.

  32. To all poll bludgers re WILLIAM BOWE’s #237

    William Bowe has already set up a NEW US site at #237 for ALL blogers here to contribute/post to It will hav diversity However it will be a non moderator site
    Alternatively Catrina wishs to set up a site Yous all have got probabley 24 hours to be NON APATHETIC , before th caste is die-d After that it will be to late , because Catrina probably right now is setting up an alternative site whichprobably will be available from tomorrow

    So yous have 3 choices , do nothing and do not post your opinion here of these 2 alternatives , and I suggest the result of your non posting will be Catrina’s site wil be the site , (or post an opinion but do so with corage , and not as an ‘Obama supporter” of the “Obama supporter Catrina”) I will definitively not be a contributor to Catrina’s , simply because whilst she is entusiastic and well meaning , 1/ Catrina factually 2 weeks ago crackd the sh.ts and left the site herself voluntarily over a minor retort from Willliam , so her patience & thick skin is not apparent , and 2/ Catrina is in the bottom 5% of Obama supporters here accepting of diverse views , and 3/ she is an inexperienced non long term politicl operative and yous will get a relatively non diverse ‘love in’ site I will regard ‘promises’ of future fairness as completely unworthy of reply Catrina I understand is liked , as with ChrisG type posts particularly for reporting over nite Dems superdelegate movements past results , but I suggest my 3 points above over weigh that objectively

    I believed 2 days ago reading William’s heading comments to this Thread , we would be in this position So I do not mak this post lightley , and certainly do not wish it to be either personal on the lady , because i did in fact post an immediate request after Catrina voluntarily left us, as EC knows for her to return here , and additionally posted a ‘Catrina back’ ditty as well I am simply saying with frankness an intlllectual site needs a certain ‘character’ , and Catrina is not that vs William has ALREADY factually set up a moderation free site available right now , for all opinion diversity’s posters unambiguously welcomed There wil be many happy to see me go permanently , and thats OK , thats there perogative to feel that
    Moving on is the sensible easy part of life But what I am suggsting is bloger’s give som prior thought of the two above alternatives , and your posting views to them Now , my #266 and #267 posts was fair dinkum , also offering to set up a US thread as a 3rd alternative , but i did so only to offer a 3rd choice with a moderator , and with diversse oinions being posted My offer was reely only intended to offer an alternativ to Catrina’s , BUT it was not offered necessarily as an altenative to Williams fair offer of his new existing site that he offered in his #237 post I will repost this blog again tomorrow only becaus in the interim , this post may get ‘lost’ in subsequent ChrisB posts with his extensive US news updates Maybe yous will value Wiliam more , when you no longer have him
    .
    .
    .
    .
    PS/ Optimist #280
    In the cut & thrust of bloging sites you’d expect the ‘enemies’ retort you almost ‘invited’ ! For months I’ve prodded using various means to elisit an articulation of ‘yes we can’ , & som posters put what I thought was an incomplete picture of what I thought it was , so no use me I thought supplying my ‘answer’ to the oponents , then getting easily shoot down by a retort tht is not what it is ! Blindoptimist’s 5 pointys in #156 is fairly complete however , & what I did actually think was th ‘yes we can’ Although Blind I also thought it incluuded , anti all that is ‘bushism , anti ‘Washington” politc , afirmative ‘black’ etc message to the ununitd US peoples & to the World , and also meant implicit grass root democracy is way & a pollie cares for av peoples problams Seeing my unlikely long tenure here , thought may as well throw out all the ammo of the visons bit , which is above both the specific policys directions , the detailed modelling philo policy areas & the guys character/judgement , so I went upwards at that visions bit , not downwads , but all are important & also separately interrelated (that I never addressed as no complete visions were posted) , and with even the visions I think some fine , som disagree , some not practicle

  33. The US Thread Continues …

    The site is up and running. Still some things to deal with that I’ll comment on later (more techo stuff than anything else). Two posts are up – one is next Open Thread dealing with the general election and the other is the rationale statement which includes some hints about policy and procedure (but to tell you the truth I’ll still grappling with the technology to get this sorted – but at least we have a thread to discuss issues and opinions as to how we manage this thing).

    http://pollbludger.wordpress.com/

  35. Oh yeah blogging with Catrina is going to be as objective as blogging on the official Obama blog.

    Reading the collective repetitive wisdom of Chris B, Kirri R, Jen and Catrina would be like living through groundhog day at an Enver Hoxha appreciation Society meeting – Yuk!.

  36. 285
    Edward StJohn

    For someone who’s never backed a winner you’re sure full of yourself Eddy. But always quick to tell us how friggin’ superior you think you are.

    Good luck, and goodbye.

  38. 287

    It might surprise you Eddy that NOT everyone is as twisted as you.

    But you stick to your version of reality and go off and find another group to attach yourself too and then spend nearly every post goading or insulting or generally being a creep.

    That’s what you’re good at.

    bye

  39. Ahhh, you horrible people setting up a new US thread at wordpress. The department’s productivity may skyrocket, but i don’t like it!

  41. 290 Nah, Eddy, I’ve got a fine sense of humour, you just ain’t funny, just twisted. There’s a difference. So whenever anybody calls your bluff you come on with these inane generalisations and names, like ‘trot’, as if that fools anybody.

    You need help.

  42. To all poll bludgers re WILLIAM BOWE’s #237

    William Bowe has already set up a NEW US site at #237 for ALL blogers here to contribute/post to It will hav diversity However it will be a non moderator site
    Alternatively Catrina has set up a site Yous all have got probabley 24 hours to be NON APATHETIC , before th caste is die-d , because one of those 2 sites will die

    So yous have 3 choices , do nothing and do not post your opinion here of these 2 alternatives , and I suggest the result of your non posting will be Catrina’s site wil be the site , because the one line posters who have dominated this site will make the decsion for you , you will then have no choice , (or you can post an opinion with courage , and not as an ‘Obama supporter” of the “Obama supporter Catrina”) I will definitively not be a contributor to Catrina’s , simply because whilst she is entusiastic and well meaning , 1/ Catrina factually 2 weeks ago crackd the sh.ts and left the site herself voluntarily over a minor retort from Willliam , so her patience & thick skin is not apparent , and 2/ Catrina is in the bottom 5% of Obama supporters here accepting of diverse views , and 3/ she is an inexperienced non long term politicl operative and yous will get a relatively non diverse ‘love in’ site I will regard ‘promises’ of future fairness as completely unworthy of reply Catrina I understand is liked , as with ChrisG type posts particularly for reporting over nite Dems superdelegate movements past results , but I suggest my 3 points above over weigh that objectively

    I believed 2 days ago reading William’s heading comments to this Thread , we would be in this position So I do not mak this post lightley , and certainly do not wish it to be either personal on the lady , because i did in fact post an immediate request after Catrina voluntarily left us, as EC knows for her to return here , and additionally posted a ‘Catrina back’ ditty as well I am simply saying with frankness an intlllectual site needs a certain ‘character’ , and Catrina is not that vs William has ALREADY factually set up a moderation free site available right now , for all opinion diversity’s posters unambiguously welcomed There wil be many happy to see me go permanently , and thats OK , thats there perogative to feel that Moving on is the sensible easy part of life But what I am suggsting is bloger’s give som prior thought of the two above alternatives , and your posting views to them Now , my #266 and #267 posts was fair dinkum , also offering to set up a US thread as a 3rd alternative , but i did so only to offer a 3rd choice with a moderator , and with diversse oinions being posted My offer was reely only intended to offer an alternativ to Catrina’s , BUT it was not offered necessarily as an altenative to Williams fair offer of his new existing site that he offered in his #237 post I will repost this blog again tomorrow only becaus in the interim , this post may get ‘lost’ in subsequent ChrisB posts with his extensive US news updates Maybe yous will value Wiliam more , when you no longer have him

  44. Ron-
    according to William’s site he is all for Catrina setting up a new one in preference to his, so i think you’ve lost the argument, buddy.

  45. Ron, Catrina is indicating that the new site won’t be moderated as such, just as the threads on this site weren’t really moderated. I would ask you not to think of it as Catrina’s site and at least give it a chance.

  48. I still don’t understand the rudeness directed at we US thread posters. Having dipped into the OZ thread to check ythings out I feel we are most unfairly maligned – classic case of projection methinks.

  49. Jen, I don’t think you have any idea how aggravating it is to deservedly tick somebody off for posting 12 comments in three minutes, and then have to suffer three full days of snarling, whining and bitching about it. Post-November 24, that kind of thing has only been happening to me on the US threads.

  50. William,

    I thought the laissez faire approach worked well for what it is worth but when the loudhailers came out it was overwhelmed.

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