Morgan: 63-37

No FuelWatch effect from Morgan either: indeed, their face-to-face poll conducted last weekend shows Labor’s lead up to 63-37 from 61-39 the previous week. Labor’s primary vote is down slightly from 53 per cent to 52.5 per cent, but the Coalition’s has fallen further – from 34 per cent to 31.5 per cent, their worst result since mid-March.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

738 comments on “Morgan: 63-37”

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  1. Julie Bishop last night was actually watchable until she launched into the tired old Fuelwatch rant. Tony Burke is always good value, one of the better performers in Rudd’s team.

  2. #52 plebs morgan doesn’t seem to get a lot of coverage these days.

    Part of that might simply be because its not commissioned by any media publication – e.g, Newspolls are commissioned by News Corp, Fairfax usually commissions ACNielsen polls.

  3. There won’t be any mention of Morgan poll figures in msm but I bet The Sham and The Dwarf give this comment of Gary’s a good run.
    “The Rudd Government needs to “wake up” to the economic difficulties facing Australians and avoid repeating those mistakes or we will have a “recession we don’t have to have!.”
    By the time they finish the impression given will be that Libs are miles ahead of Labor in the poll.

  4. Vera in #55 quoted Morgan:

    “The Rudd Government needs to “wake up” to the economic difficulties facing Australians and avoid repeating those mistakes or we will have a “recession we don’t have to have!.”

    It does sound like he was trying to be politically provocative.

    1) Labor is being economically responsible, as evidenced by their Budget. OK, it didn’t set the world on fire with praise from economists, but it wasn’t much criticised either. It was solid, cautious and appropriate for the conditions.

    2) Morgan’s use of the Keating line, “the recession we had to have” but corrupted to “the recession we didn’t have to have” smacks of a political statement.

    3) If there does come a recession, it will be global and not due to anything Rudd does or doesn’t do. Morgan’s attempting to imply it to Rudd negligence: “not waking up to the economic difficulties”, again is blatantly political.

    The post by Kina here on Poll Bludger the other day of a bizarre letter written by Morgan in sympathy of the Coalition (over WorkChoices of all issues!) reveals him as quite openly partisan. Something borne out, IMO, by his transparently political editorialising of this poll.

  5. OK, it is Morgan’s poll, it’s got his name on it. He’s entitled, obviously, to attach any political statements he wishes to them. He doesn’t have the right for such statements to be taken seriously though!

  6. Thanks net #54 but the point is why does Morgan even bother as an independent if its poll result is not reported on (or have a main release) in the msn or anywhere else. Might as well pack up his bags and go home if his results are going to be cherry picked by the msm at a later date to suit their purposes.

  7. What, still no movement? Does that mean that all that hot air about means tested tax concessions for high-income houses going solar, and knocking 5c off petrol excise has all been for no traction?

    Well, back to the drawing boards, Thanks for nothing Shanas and Milne!

  8. I noticed in QT this week that the opposition spread their questions pretty widely, pitching up curve balls (with the velocity of beach balls) to various senior and junior ministers. On almost every count (notably Abbott on child care, smacked out of the chamber by Gillard, Dutton on FuelWatch, smacked into the gallery by Bowen, Cobb on the Sustainable Regions Program, smacked over the speaker by Albanese and May on grocery prices and pensioners, smacked into the face of Christopher Pyne by Elliot*), they failed miserably. No amount of cross-armed smirking from the schoolyard bullies in Bishop and Hockey could lift their morale or improve their shamefully lacklustre performance.

    * Where she reminded the parliament that the previous Minister for Ageing once said that “he didn’t particularly like older Australians.”

  9. oh duhhh, after reading the above posts about Morgan’s political leanings, I guess that’s the point 😆

  10. Ha
    While it’s funny friday…
    Just imagine 136 to 12 – the ALP front bench could talk to itself across the chamber!!

  11. Don Wigan @ 59. I reckon Shamaham and Milne are proving just about as effective as Crosby Textor. And what particularly impresses me, is that the tactics that clearly are having bugger all impression on the polls, they continue to employ with gusto, e.g., Mesmerelda on Q&A last night.

  12. I read somewhere this week that the senior policy advisors to Brendan Nelson are from Newscorp, that might be one of his many problems.

  13. On a more serious note, while no one can take the current Libs. seriously, what on earth are they going to do to re-invent themselves? Possum has said he will do some modelling of the changing demographic implications for the terms of who votes for them, which should be interesting. Trashing their supposed economic credentials, via the stupid petrol price cut, seemed to me to be a spectacularly dumb move.
    Meanwhile, in Victoria, every man, woman, dog, cat, budgie, goldfish of the ALP, are biting, gouging, smacking, smiting, pecking, thumping, and generally getting on with the lovely process of someone getting their hands on Andre Hayermeyer’s seat. Well, why wouldn’t you, on something like 76%, even if you performed like an amoeba on valium?

  14. Seems that Clive Palmer is not content just having the Pineapple Party franchise. He has now got the franchise on a soccer club in case the Pineapple Party fails to perform.

    “Once the FFA had decided not to have new franchises in 2008/2009, the focus turned to 2009/2010. The Galaxy consortium’s chances of entering the A-League were dealt a severe blow in June 2008 when a rival consortium headed by real estate and mining billionaire Clive Palmer entered talks with the FFA[7]. On June 3, 2008, Fred Taplin announced that the Gold Coast Galaxy had dropped out of the race for the Gold Coast licence and a place in the A-League ‘in the interests of football'[8]. The same day, FFA chief Ben Buckley confirmed that the Palmer consortium had succeeded in securing the franchise [9].”

  15. On a less serious note, to celebrate the Morgan poll, I went up to the local Vintage Cellars today specifically to obtain two double-coated snack paks of Patons chocolate-covered macadamia nuts.

    Double-coated… double-swoon… rise up to ceiling and float for a while with smile on face.

    Imagine my surprise and dismay when they had run out of said confections.

    Luckily they still had the “15-Pak”, that is, a box full of em, albeit single not double wrapped.

    Works out to $0.65 cents each double wrapped or $0.73 cents each in bulk. Yeah I know, I got ripped off, but the taste was worth it.

    To sweeten the deal, the store attendant (no names, no pack drill) offered me not one, but TWO bottles of red (James Busby, Barossa Shiraz, 2001) for nix due to a labelling problem on the bottles. Jokingly I asked whether they’d forgotten to include the percentage of dioxin in the brew and he said, quote. “Yeah. Something like that.” So I got two $20 bottles for nix and paid and extra 11c per cent oveer the odds for a chocolate-covered macadamia nut.

    Call me naive, but I would have thought it would have been easier for the James Busby company to print new labels and stick them over the extant, offending ones and get the $20 retail without all the hassle of credits, buy-backs and re-stocking involved. As I said, “call me naive”. What do I know? I just don’t understand modern marketing.

    Which brings me back to the Morgan Poll.

    When will Gary Morgan and his colleagues at News Ltd. learn that a turd dressed up with crispy batter and smothered in tomato sauce still tastes like a turd?

    Rudd has a lesson to learn? What is going on in this country?

    Free grog, over-priced macadamia choc treats and an Opposition that wouldn’t know $hit from clay, with urgers on both sides of the equation raving on like nothing has changed since December 2004. There’s modern marketing for youse.

    Call me crusty, but I just don’t get it anymore.

  16. Can someone please remind me – what is the accepted wisdom on the cause of difference between Morgan’s phone poll and his face to face?

    Do people speak their mind more when they only have to talk to a voice on the phone or do they hold back

    The reason I’m asking is that Morgan’s phone poll of May 7 now seems so out of trend that it should be discounted as a rouge poll

  17. rouge/rogue

    that self transposing ‘u’ again,- what me worry, maybe I’ve had some Bushfire’s macadamia’s

  18. Scorpio Says:
    June 6th, 2008 at 3:24 pm

    “Queensland National Vaughan Johnson, showing the sensitive side of his nature.”

    Whatever happened to innocent until proven guilty, and will all this to end up as the Henderson fiasco after whatever was being covered ( Pedophile Milton in the case of Henderson) has past, but with Vaughan Johnson gloting over someones suicide.

    To say I was not impressed with his performance is an understatement.

  19. Charles, just another display of why the Nationals are being slowly weeded out of the Parliamentary system in this country.

  20. On Q&A last night Bishop was asked why the opposition behave like school children in QT by continually interjecting and hurling abuse across the chamber?

    I’m not too sure but I think her reply was something like “QT is a very important part of parliament which can change the way the dynamics of politics is presented on the nightly news – therefore if we can avoid the government from being heard we will” ???

    The Prime Minister should demand that the Speaker ensures that the government be HEARD in silence!

  21. Speaking of Julie, she reminds me of one of the first chics I used to date in the back seat of my Ford Escort the way she bobs her head up and down LOL. 🙂

  22. #
    Centre Says:
    June 6th, 2008 at 8:23 pm

    “The Prime Minister should demand that the Speaker ensures that the government be HEARD in silence!”

    Why would Rudd want to stop the Liberals presenting themselves as badly behaved school children?

  23. 73
    But that is self-defeating for the Opposition. People notice they behave like grade 9 kids without the teacher present. Who would trust them with Gov’t? And even the news clip would show this.

    They have to have policy and argue it like adults or no one will take them seriously.

    Shows how muddle headed they are at present.

  24. Nelson inadvertently indicated that the LNP had no economic answers to petrol prices, by playing a small 5 cent game that didn’t address the nature of the problem. Rudd immediately put that into context by comparing it with the GST on excise.

    Nibbling at the edges of the problem like that I think over the longer term subconsciously informs the public that they have no better economic answers than Labor, and damages any residual credentials.

    If Nelson and co don’t have any fair dinkum economic policies to put they best shut up or risk damaging their credentials each time.

  25. Hmm? an 18month long honeymoon, and Kev’s been able to keep it up for all that time and they reckon he’s got heart troublle!

  26. the msm dont pay any attention to morgan polls. His comments are getting more and more ridiculous. No one is listening

  27. Kina @ 81

    I reckon the aggressiveness with which the LNP pursued Rudd over FuelWatch last week can be at least partly explained by Nelson’s desperate desire to get his due* – in fact, any incremental quantum – of momentum and lift himself and his party out of the purgatory they’ve been flailing around in since the election. With Turnbull minding his wheelchair in the back of the Tarago and with the polls refusing to budge, we’re seeing an ambition-impaired man in primal, raw-skinned survival mode … which is so much more entertaining than that pseudo guff on commercial teli!

    * In his understanding.

  28. If Newspoll improves for Labor, the MSM will go with a Rudd comeback. Anything but admit they got it wrong with their “interpretation” of the no-change 57/43 poll

  29. If the Libs have decided to run dead in Gippsland and not bother to turn up to community meetings then what is the point of running a candidate. It is beginning to look like the story of the night of the Gippsland by election might be ‘Liberals kicked again by Voters’. A poor result down there will not be good for the Doctor.

  30. Seeing as it’s frivilous friday, check out these world headlines on Kev’s chunder.
    LOL he said “We’ve all had to drive the porcelain bus at some stage.”
    Can you ever imaging the Rodent causing this sort of interest with the foreign press? (and over a spew no less!)

    Sunday Tribune (subscription), South Africa –
    Driving the porcelain bus? You’re not alone
    Sydney – Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said on Friday he had identified the mystery fast food that gave him a stomach bug last month, forcing him to …

    BBC News, UK –
    Vomiting Australian PM blames pie
    Australian PM Kevin Rudd has said a simple stomach upset was blown out of proportion by speculation he is ruining his health through over-work. …

    Kevin Rudd sticks anything edible in his mouth!, Thailand –
    Melbourne, June 6 (ANI): Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has admitted that sticks anything edible in his mouth. This is also the reason, Rudd says that ..

    International Herald Tribune, France –
    Australian prime minister says upset stomach sparked health scare
    AP CANBERRA, Australia: Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said Friday that a simple stomach upset has been blown out of proportion by national …

  31. Malcolm Fraser giving a critique on the war in Iraq.

    {FORMER prime minister Malcolm Fraser has criticised the world’s media for not having done enough to expose the background of the decisions of George W. Bush and Tony Blair to go to war in Iraq.

    Mr Fraser said yesterday there should be more scrutiny of the lead-up to the Iraq war, which hedescribed as a “disastrous venture”. }

    {But he said that the lead-up to the Iraq war was a story waiting to be told. “I don’t think journalism has pursued what happened there – how the war was begun – as vigorously and fearlessly as it should have,” Mr Fraser told an audience of politicians and journalists.

    “I don’t believe that the fabrication of evidence and the false intelligence that was used to justify the war has been adequately exposed for what it, in fact, is.

    “And I don’t think that the leaders of Britain and the United States have really had put on their shoulders fairly and squarely the responsibility for what I believe was a most disastrous venture.” },25197,23818706-7582,00.html

    Malcolm Fraser is a Lib isn’t he? Funny how he left out the Rodent’s contribution.

  32. Scorpio – yeah, Fraser is a Lib, but he’s also no fan of Howard so I suspect he left the Rodent out simply because Ratty’s contribution wasn’t worth wasting breath on. After all his only role was cleaning GWB’s arse!

  33. William. The Federal Joint Committee of electoral Matters has published the submissions it has received. There are 159 submissiions published to date.

    I think it would be good if you were able to start a thread on the submission and I would very much welcome comments and constructive debate on various topics that have been canvassed.

    the focus of my submission has been on the method of calculation the surplus transfer value and the need to review the formula used. The current system in place was designed to facilitate a manual counting system. With the use of computer technology this is not longer required or desirable.

    I have also advocated a reiterative count where the count is restarted falling every exclusion. the count continues until all vacant positions are elected with the need for further exclusion. This combined with a value of the vote based STV formula would address many of the anominalies that are inbuilt in to the current system

    Analysis of the 20076 Victorian Senate vote and a realistic hypothetical shows that had the Liberal surplus been distributed the Greens would have received a “System added bonus” equivalent to 6,000 votes above and beyond the level of their support.

    These and other issues must be addressed and the more public discussion the better.

    Link to submisisons

  34. 46
    ruawake Says:
    June 6th, 2008 at 4:53 pm

    {There is no conspiracy theory with the AFP and the kid pron stuff.}

    Not out of the question at all I would have thought. Only about 80 arrests and somewhere around 1500 potential offenders now warned off.

    At the very least, it displays gross incompetence by keelty and the AFP.

    Lateline last night and tonight haven’t painted a good picture.

  35. william

    Hhaving read of your submission to the Federal joint Committee on electoral Matters and in general agreement, I would like to stress that tegh reiterative vote count proposed in my submission would best facilitate optional preferential voting as the quota would be adjusted on each registration to take into account those ballot papers that exhaust. If we are to adopt an option preferential voting system, and I am not 100% supportive of the idea as it could lead to a de facto first-past-the-post system, then it should be 100% option and not limited to the number of vacant positions.

    There is no logical argument to support the minimum number of valid preference requirement. All it does is encourage parties such as the Greens to nominate more candidates then the could possibly win.

    The other issue of concern that i would have about optional preferential voting is the potential for parties to register an “Optional” limited preference ballot paper. if optional preferential is to be introduced then it should not apply to register tickets. Parties should be able to nominate the percentage breakdown of multiple registered tickets as opposed to the equal 50/50 or 33.3 x 3 that is available.

    I can see no problems with BTL voting being optional. But if a voter expressed a vote above-the-line and a valid preference below the line. Maybe the vote should then follow the ATL preference at the point where the BTL vote becomes exhausted. Again a reiterative count in relation to the Senate count would be beneficial and more democratic then the current system.

    A reiterative count would not be prohibitive with the sue of computerized counting. (It would take 3-6 hours as opposed to five minutes to count – Ideally you would have one transaction per candidate + distribution of surpluses.)

  36. [Not out of the question at all I would have thought. Only about 80 arrests and somewhere around 1500 potential offenders now warned off.

    At the very least, it displays gross incompetence by keelty and the AFP.]

    And the only person in WA was charged last month – and another 3 houses were raided yesterday and today, AFTER it was splashed on the media.

    Why does Mick Keelty remind me of this WA police marketing tool ? (scheck out the pictures of the puppet show) 🙂

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