Morgan: 63-37

No FuelWatch effect from Morgan either: indeed, their face-to-face poll conducted last weekend shows Labor’s lead up to 63-37 from 61-39 the previous week. Labor’s primary vote is down slightly from 53 per cent to 52.5 per cent, but the Coalition’s has fallen further – from 34 per cent to 31.5 per cent, their worst result since mid-March.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

738 comments on “Morgan: 63-37”

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  1. My guess is Rudd threatened Neale with disendorsement unless she cleans up her act! What I found interesting was Julia Gillard taking a similar hard line to the boss, certainly not sticking up for the sisterhood. A lot of Labor people hate Belinda and her husband, they’d dearly love to see the back of both of them!
    I’ll agree she’s hardly an attractive figure, but one should give her credit for winning a seat off the Liberals with a 7% margin, a sign that she’s an effective campaigner, or maybe it was just WORKCHOICES anger on the N.S.W Central Coast that helped her get over the line?

  2. On comments above on how people can be made to realize the MSM are “cooking the books” with their comments?

    I think the MSM are doing a pretty good job of undermining their own credibility by their outrageous statements. I mean , despite everything, Rudd still commands a massive lead in 2 PP & primary votes. No-one has changed their mind. OK he lost a little in approval, but he is still quite high.

    Gov’t has a number of good performers on interviews including Rudd, Gillard, Roxon, Tanner, Shorten, Swan(now), and Combret still has to be exposed. They have measured and intelligent answers with plenty of political savvy. And Garret is Ok usually. This would I think goes a long way to neutralising the MSM comments as they usually get their say on fairly well listened to programmes.

    Pensioners will get their rise in July and that will go a long way to discrediting the present well organised protests and help to discredit some of the people making this an issue.

    But yes I think complaining does help as well.

    I agree Rudd needs to fix the ABC.

  4. Gday guys, first post back since the election – good to see the site still here (thanks William) and good to see people still posting.

    I’m a little bemused by the MSM as of late. Is the large negative slants we are seeing across the board in many of the prints a response to Rudd’s perceived tight media management?

    I see very little positive from todays stories – especially the Essential Market Reasearch poll or the clarification from Toyota of the critical nature of Oz investment.

    I expected as much from Shanahan, Ackerman, Milne, Bolt, Albrechtsen et al, but this just seems to be more widespread.

  5. Bias in the media should never be accepted and always complained about even if complaining has little effect. We should never get to the stage of just giving in because people get sick of seeing it or hearing about it.

  7. Where’s Adam? Some months ago he wondered why the election of Belinda Neale was met with such cynicism. It only took her 6 months to show us why.

  8. Gees, Barcelona Tonight’s Adopt A Pensioner must be really popular.

    And you have to register before even being allowed to read what’s on the site.

    And surely these pensioners are too poor to afford the internet ?

    [Thank you for visiting the official Adopt a Pensioner website!
    As seen on the Channel 7, Today Tonight program.

    4841 users currently registered!]

    http://adopt-a-pensioner.yourwebspace.com.au/index.php

  9. Speaking of ABC journalism, last nights Lateline ran a story on the decision to increase immigration intake to @300,000. (net immigration @200,000)

    The Lateline piece strongly questioned the wisdom of reaching these levels and highlighted the negative long term impacts of absorbing 3,800 people per week on

    rent
    food
    housing affordability
    urban infrastrucutre
    water supply
    public transport
    etc.

    THe numbers are far in excess of our ability to absorb them and thank god, the ABC was prepared to run the story and run the risk of backlash (ie racism, little Australia etc)

    “Lateline the Brave”, I say

  10. 559 Mr Squiggle – How many people were leaving this country each year for 1 or more years again Squig? By the way. there won’t be too many complaints from your side. Immigration ballooned under Howard.

  11. So what’s the answer Squig? Stop immigration? We have an ageing population with many to leave the workforce over the next 5 to 10 years and we have difficulties finding skilled workers as it is. Our economy relies on growth, not stagnation. So provide us with your answers to the problem.

  12. Mr S, 559 says…

    [blockquote]THe numbers are far in excess of our ability to absorb them…[/blockquote]

    The economy is expanding at around 3% pa – double the proposed increase in immigration (in percentage terms).

    And besides, it is the ability to absorb the increased number, not the total!
    You, apparently, were quite happy with the previous quota (Howard’s), were you not.

  13. My Squiggle

    I’m pretty dam sure there is nothing I can say that will change your mind.

    Immigration policy was they only plus under the Liberals, they increased the intake along with the anti immigration rhetoric and labor never said boo; I just loved it, the anti immigration crowd got conned big time.

    Every dam person in this country including the Aboriginals is an immigrant or comes from immigrant stock, get over it.

    Now I know that there are those that want us to go back to cave dwelling but I am not one of them, I am with every elected government in this country, I want to see us have a good standard of living.

    Yes all things mentioned are a problem, solving them will create employment for us all.

  15. And let me add to Antony’s self condemnation over his obvious bias;

    Not only does he list the Nationals first nearly every time, he also has the ALP listed in bright red text!

    And we all know that red is the colour of danger. Coincidence or psychological manipulation? – we’ll let the readers judge for themselves.

    As for his Tory mathematics – what a disgrace! Notice how Antony “Leni Riefenstahl” Green only goes to one decimal place when he publishes the results? As any pseph worth their weight knows full well, if we look at the RAW electoral figures (not these doktored jobbies) we see quite clearly that in an overwhelming majority of cases, the Nationals get their results to one decimal place ROUNDED UP!

    OVERSTATING THEIR TRUE LEVEL OF SUPPORT BY UP TO 400 VOTES!

    Notice also his cunning plan to pre-empt his obvious bias with a jovial quip on Pollbludger, trying to distract us from his TRUE AGENDA? “Oh No – Antony couldnt be working for Crosby-Textor” say us, “Look, he’s having a joke about the coincidences on his own page that might lead to allegations of media bias” say us. Well don’t be fooled comrades, it’s all part of the cunning plan. Just like the way he changed his last name from Downer to Green!

    How many have noticed that on election nights, when bad results come in for the Coalition, Antony’s computer suddenly has problems – but when the ALP starts having problems Antony’s on it in a flash and the computer miraculously has fixed itself?

    You might be able to fool most of the people most of the time young Mr Green with your cool demeanor and veneer of political independence, but some of us know THE TRUTH and we PUT YOU ON NOTICE!

    Comrades of the 101st Keyboard Division – break out the type writers, replace the ink ribbons, I smell a letter writing CRUSADE FOR TRUTH coming on!

    :mrgreen:

  17. From today’s Age, on Gippsland:

    The parties’ preference deals for the Gippsland byelection have been revealed, sparking point-scoring across the political divide.

    Labor has been criticised by the Coalition for listing Liberty & Democracy Party — and one-time One Nation — candidate Ben Buckley second on its how-to-vote cards, while the Greens have snubbed both major parties, saying neither deserves its preferences.

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/labor-defends-deal-with-exone-nation-candidate-20080611-2p56.html

  18. ‘….saying neither deserves its preferences…’

    So let noone say that Labor signed Kyoto to curry favour with the Greens!!

    It’d be interesting to know what you have to do (other than adopting the entire Green policy platform without question) to ‘deserve’ Green preferences.

    Put them ahead of BB on the ticket? Pledge to the voters of Gippsland (timber country) that the ALP will veto the Gunns pulp mill and save the Tasmanian rainforests?

    Honestly, for the Greens to imply by this statement that there is no difference between the Federal Labor and Liberal parties, is just silly.

    They have earnt the contempt of the present Victorian State Government and looks like they want to make themselves irrelevant federally as well.

  20. I have never met Belinda Neal but I did hand out ALP how-to-votes for her last election. What strikes me as curious is: (a) the almost indecent availability of a Liberal staffer JP to harvest 6 stat decs at the Iguana haunt; (b) their rapid withdrawal; (c) the subsequent litany of ‘corroborating evidence’ ‘proving’ diminished character (Soccergate, Freezergate) plus the appearance of other ‘aggrieved’ third parties, and (d) the reaction (“proves she’s guilty”)to Neal’s acknowledgement that she would learn to be more adroit in handling difficult situations.

    Add to that unflattering photographs and virtually ignored stat decs authored by her guests supporting Neal’s account.

    By the way, why did a member of staff follow John Della Bosca out to the car park? Is this the usual practice? Or just another element of the ambush?

    Call me old fashioned, yea, call me a conspiracy theorist, but I smell a Liberal rat.

  21. Hi Gary, Bryce and Charles,

    My guess would be a net immigrant intake of @80- 100,000 per year is about right.

    I’m not opposed to immigration, but I can still see reasons to question why we should reach record levels when inflation is such a problem

    Instead of taking in @200,000 in one year, lets take two years and ease the pressures.

  22. CC youre right there is certainly a witch hunt element to all this. My concern is that Rudd has reinforced the perception of Neal’s problems by the counselling decree. Howard in this situation, as part of his defend to the hilt policy, would have pointed out as you have that the stat decs signed by a Lib staffer have been withdrwan and their were opposing statements etc etc

    It seems that Rudd will not have much tolerance for this sort of stuff.

  24. I sent this e-mail to David Spears – “I’m just wondering if David Spears will be interviewing the head of Essential Research online poll this week which shows Labor stretching the gap to 58/42 TPP. I suspect not, it’s not projecting the
    story you want it to.”
    I received this reply:
    “Gary,
    We did the interview on Tuesday.
    Sorry you missed it.
    David.”
    He’s right, I didn’t watch “Agenda” on Tuesday. Did anyone see this on “Agenda” last Tuesday?

  26. 572 Andrew – Actually, Andrew, I think Rudd has worked out a way to protect Neal and himself from further political damage. Neal has been made the victim now, a victim of her inner demons, while Rudd has been seen as decisive and fair. Both win and the story fades. The media can produce as much “evidence” as they like now to back up what Rudd and Neal’s action. Had they roughed it out this “evidence” would be used to prod them into taking action, which would politically damaging.

  28. GB, you may be right strategically, but it does confirm that Neal indeed has a problem. Now the restaurant incident is highly debatable and seems a beat-up but are we to assume that Neal DOES have a problem anyway??

  30. And Rx, its amazing how we can have so many failed pronoucements of the honeymoon being over (I’ve lost count?? 10) without any scutiny, apology, retraction by those responsible. Perhaps we should email Media Watch for what its worth??

  31. Rx:
    From a story published on 22 June 2000

    “Hypocrites in the house”
    Dennis Shanahan
    Mr Abbott, standing in the aisle, began to yell back at the Labor cries of “disgrace”, “grub” and “get out”. One barb hit home – which Mr Abbot would not disclose, and the minister, renowned for winning an Oxford blue in boxing, bounded towards the Labor back benches. Speaker Neil Andrew shouted, “The minister will excuse himself from the service of the house”, thus suspending a minister for the first time in 40 years.

    It doesn’t say who the member was.

  33. Mr Squiggle @ 571 – We’re loosing about 100K workers a year, and increasing, due to population aging, so your figures, at best, only maintain the status quo.

    But the don’t address current labour shortages, which are really a skills shortage created by the indifference of the previous government. Unfortunately, that will take years to correct. Meanwhile a mate of mine has had 7 workers twiddling their thumbs all week because the earliest he can get an electrician to fix a machine that packed up last Saturday is tomorrow afternoon.

    BTW-the 300,000 is the media’s scary headline figure. The increase in permanet migrants is only 37,500 more than Howard was bringing in.

  34. Thanks LTEP 581 and 582. Good research! Ány links please?

    Andrew #580. Agreed, they are tools who rely on clichés and a largely uncritical public.

  35. Now if we still had Howardism in the party we would see them run the fear and xenophobe card. We will be over run by strange types not like us, so be fearful.

  36. “Agreed, they are tools who rely on clichés and a largely uncritical public.”
    That’s true Rx but the public are uncritical because they are apathetic, which also works for the government, as can be seen in the latest polling. Many of the negative issues are washing over the “great unwashed”, to use a term I don’t really like but you get my point.

  38. All that migration over the Howard years with no provision for housing must have put price pressure on housing.

    When we arrived here from Holland in ’57 at least the SA Housing Trust was building houses like crazy, and my parents bought a house 2 years from arriving here, not bad with one of Mr Menzies’ credit squeezes being in effect

  39. Go Fulvio on Sattler’s Blog 🙂

    [ Think of the Boneless Dogs!
    * June 11, 2008
    * 08:51 PM

    Ann, pet, don’t take distribution of the Liberal Party talking points so anxiously. You’re supposed to introduce them one at a time,casually, not all in one post. You lose effect if you use ’em all in one go.

    I do like your Junior Diplomat line, though. I don’t remember you using it so effectively against Dolly, but then he was just a Junior, never a Diplomat.

    Anyway, it’s good to see you still waving the flag, and I’ve asked my butcher to save up all the dog bones this week. If you supply me with a list of your worthy pensioners I’ll personally deliver them for you.Gratis.]

    http://blogs.watoday.com.au/madashell/2008/06/pensioners_the.html#comments

  41. I’d love to see some of those comments directed at Howard Sattler being directed at “Barcelona Tonight”. They are classics.

  42. At my local supermarket, you can get two cans of baked beans for the cost of one can of Kit-E-Kat. I can feed my children more cheaply than I can feed the cat. Can you please pass this information on to those poor pensioners?

    Which reminds me of something my father once did…

    He used to work for a wholesale grocery company, and one day a pet food salesman can in with some new brand, and claimed it was so nutritious even people could eat it. My father went and got a can-opener and asked him to demonstrate. Needless to say, the salesman didn’t prove true to his word.

    No doubt, there are pensioners who feed their pets better than they feed themselves, but I don’t think governments can be blamed for this attitude…

  43. Some previous Essential Research

    Howard’s Loss a Generational Change in Australian Politics March 7, 2008
    However the figures on the following table aggregated from 3 national polls EMC conducted last year indicate that the conservative parties’ strength is in the older voting demographic, and as it begins to die out the liberals will need to attract more and more voters with ALP or green voter identification to win government.
    http://www.essentialmedia.com.au/NewsAnalysis/AnalysisIndex/HowardsLossaGenerationalChange/tabid/2203/Default.aspx

    I think they mean literally die out.

    The previous Essential Research Poll reported:
    THE Federal Government has taken a whacking in the popularity stakes, just as Prime Minister Kevin Rudd predicted.
    http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,23799748-5005961,00.html

  44. Mr Squiggle – One more crumb you might want to digest:

    During the 1980s and 1990s, Australia experienced workforce growth of about 170,000 every year for the entire two decades. Due to the declining birth rate, predicted growth is only 125,000 for the entire 2020s.
    Victorian Employers’ Chamber of Commerce and Industry Fact – Sheet (pdf)

    <my emphasis)

    This was produced earlier this decade so increased immigration numbers in recent years may have upped the projected figure for the 2011-2020 decade a bit, but going from workforce growth of about 170,000/year to a little more than 12,500/year (without immigration) would pole-axe our economy in the 2020s decade.

  45. Keiren Gilbert from Sky, who is travelling with Kev, gave him a big wrap this afternoon. Said he got diplomacy just right and that he and Japan PM got on real well, talked about whales, defense, trade etc and they even had a joke about a steak on the barbie at the lodge at Kev’s invitation.
    whaaaaa! was that the whailing of msm having to reprint the front pages of their papers? Nah, they’ll still print that Kev has started WW3 with the Japanese and we’re all doomed!

  46. 583
    MayoFeral Says: “….Meanwhile a mate of mine has had 7 workers twiddling their thumbs all week because the earliest he can get an electrician to fix a machine that packed up last Saturday is tomorrow afternoon….”

    The “Advertiser” a few days ago had an article about an 18 year old [hence an adult] electronic engineering apprentice whose pay rate was $ 6.40 per hour.

    The son of a friend of mine gave up his mechanics apprenticeship to go and stack shelves at Woolies where the pay rate was nearly double and the career path as good if not better in his estimation.

    workNOchoices still [as of a week or 2 ago] operates in over 100,000 work sites.

    Relevant?

  47. Correction – the fact sheet was in fact produced in April 2006 so the projected 125,000 figure may take into account at least some of the big boost in immigration during the last 5 years of the Howard government.

  48. So where’s Robb now? He should be out there congratulating the PM on successfully “repairing” the damaged relationship between Australia and Japan. Of course we know it never was damaged but it could be a good face saving tactic for the opposition.

  49. Vera, #595

    Keiren Gilbert from Sky, who is travelling with Kev, gave him a big wrap this afternoon

    Likewise the Editorial writer on today’s The Age:

    http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/the-asian-odyssey-of-kevin-rudd-from-queensland-20080611-2p1b.html?page=-1

    […]

    Mr Rudd’s past week, his level of activity has been substantial. He proposed a new regional forum that would bind the countries of Asia, Oceania and the eastern Pacific, then he left for Japan where he called for a new international body to promote disarmament, argued for greater pressure to be applied to OPEC and signed a deal for Toyota to produce a hybrid version of its Camry family sedan in Melbourne. That was before he met the Emperor yesterday. And today he moves on to Indonesia.

    Just to recap: he embarked on the longest visit by a serving prime minister to our biggest export market, Japan, and his next stop is the biggest nation in South-East Asia, which is also the world’s most populous Muslim country.

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