“No decisions tonight”

The headline says “CNN projects Obama clinches nomination”, but during what in many ways has sounded like a concession speech, Clinton has declared: “I will be making no decisions tonight”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,132 comments on ““No decisions tonight””

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  1. 2046
    Optimist Says:
    June 11th, 2008 at 10:46 pm
    Blindoptimist, do you have a reference for Webb ruling out VP?..
    …..
    I thought Bloomsberg….but I couldn’t swear to that..

  3. 2050
    Andrew Says:
    June 11th, 2008 at 10:51 pm
    “…….how is it that he is still competitive in the polls??”

    The interminable struggle in the Democratic party has given McCain a free run for months. Now the contest will be a straight binary choice with a united party behind him, Obama should get a good lift…here’s hoping….!

  4. HarryH – You can get up to $90 on Sebelius at odds of $9 I saw just now. Be quick! That’s a few points better than I got.

  6. jv

    I am a reformed gambler who hasn’t dared to venture anywhere near Betfair lol.

    I even resisted the easy money on offer last November.

    5 years and still hanging in there.

  9. from wik:

    “2008 Vice Presidential speculation

    Main article: United States Democratic vice presidential candidates, 2008
    Webb is often mentioned as possible Vice Presidential Democratic nominee in 2008 due to his military experience and positions on issues.[45] This could serve as a shield against potential Republican attacks on Obama’s lack of foreign policy, defense experience[46][47][48] and military service such as John McCain made on May 22, 2008.[49]
    Although he said he is not interested in the vice presidency in a Meet The Press interview,[50] speculations about him being picked by Barack Obama, the Democratic nominee are still heard.[47] Webb has only been a member of the Democratic Party since 2006.
    He has campaigned with Obama in Virginia in early June, 2008 shortly after Obama captured the Democratic nomination for President of the United States.”

  10. HarryH,
    good point about the value of Webb’s Senate spot, but the Republicans are stinking to high heaven with the electorate – perhaps the dems can take a big senate majority and afford to let Webb go. Dems are doing better and better in Virginia with Tim Kaine proving a very popular Governor and his predecessor, Mark Warner expected to do very well in his Senate run in November.

  11. blindoptimist @ 2053 [a straight binary choice with a united party behind him, Obama should get a good lift…here’s hoping….!]

    Nothing surer. Last night I had another viewing of the June 3 speeches – Obama first (4.5 stars) , then McCain (2 stars). It is very instructive, and I recommend whenever you are having doubts about Obama’s chances of winning sufficient hearts and minds, that you give those clips a run. The old dope hasn’t got a snowflake’s chance.

    HarryH @ 2056 – [I am a reformed gambler] One day at a time, eh? Well done- 5 years is an achievement if you were hooked. I’ll stop encouraging you then.
    But I somehow feel that betting on politics is more of an investment than a wager! Of course, I never ‘invest’ more than I’m prepared to lose. Last November, plus McCain’s nomination, and then Obama’s, have given me a bank big enough to last years and years, anyway. It will probably see me out, especially if Baz wins the big one. If we are all at a venue somewhere for the election day, I might even shout a round of blackberry nips. 😀

  13. jv

    Blackberry nip? jesus lol

    14yo and never drank before…Kiss concert…2 bottles of Blackberry Nip…crook as a dog the next day…oh the memories.

  16. 1998
    Optimist

    There were almost no Americans with public stature saying those things at the time. It was almost treason, so “unpatriotic” to tell the simple truth: they were sold a huge lie by creepy little nobodies who’d hung around the corridors of power waiting for their chance and like the the bloodsuckers they are, took it with glee and not one iota of compassion for the death and destruction their lies and calumny would unleash.

    They should rot in hell, but probably won’t lose a night’s sleep over it.

  18. KR,
    damn straight! Gives even greater weight to the vision and courage of Barack Obama…..I’m reminded of the slogan used for Matt Santos in The West Wing – “Obama, Right From the Start!”

  19. The old dope, jv…older, I would have thought…then there’s vintage but that’s another story for another time… I think tabitha is finns btw…

    Otoh, last Nov I was sure that ESJ was a wet pekinese pyjama cuff…just goes to show…as fo Dr B’s feathers & laxatives, well I’m not going there…well not yet…

    Any new polls?

  21. KR,
    I remember a quote from Teddy Roosevelt that was often posted on blogs while the likes of Bill O’Lielly and co were cheerleading death in Iraq……

    “To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public. Nothing but the truth should be spoken about him or any one else. But it is even more important to tell the truth, pleasant or unpleasant, about him than about any one else.”

  22. Tabitha is a bit confused, (as if we didn’t already know):

    (poontang)
    n.
    1. Vulgar Slang Sexual intercourse with a woman.
    2. Offensive Slang Used as a disparaging term for a woman.
    [Perhaps from French putain, prostitute, from Old French, from pute, feminine of put, foul, stinking, from Latin ptidus, from ptre, to be rotten, stink; see p- in Indo-European roots.]

    …but if she has ‘foul, stinking’ bits, perhaps she could take them elsewhere?

  23. KR,
    One fellow who I also give credit to for opposing the war from the start is former Republican Senator from Rhode Island, Lincoln Chaffee. He lost his seat. Right-wing attack mutt Ann Coulter commented in response to Chaffee’s stance….”they shot the wrong Lincoln.”

  24. Of course the other major concern I have at the minute is EC & Ron’s impending nuptials if an item up thread is to be believed…

    besides ‘poontang’…

    Shades of: ‘He never misses a chance to use excremental terms in his posts’

    Guess?

  25. Chafee(R) has more integrity in his little finger than Lieberman(D).

    Integrity was rightly seen as unRepublican and Chafee was kicked to the kerb.

    Chafee’s stance was indeed something to be lauded.

  27. I’m hoping that after November, the dems will have a massive majority in the Senate and that Lieberman fades into the utter irrelevance he deserves. He can take his croaky little Elmer Fudd voice and go chase some wabbits…..preferebly with Cheney as his hunting partner.

  28. “Obama Pledges to Campaign in Republican Areas
    In an interview with the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Sen. Barack Obama “promised that Missourians will see a lot of their Illinois neighbor — in rural as well as urban and suburban areas.”

    Asked why Democrats have lost the state in 2000 and 2004, Obama said: “A mistake is probably made in neglecting those parts of the state that are not traditionally Democratic… In the rural parts of the state, showing up makes a big difference. My general view is, even if I don’t win those areas, we can narrow the gap and that may make a significant difference in how we do statewide.”

    (TG’s political wire)

    When a Candidate possesses the Big Mo, bucks in the bank, and the tactical smarts and organisational strength to exploit the essential simplicity of the way the votes stack up to produce a win in a swing State like Missouri, then that Candidate is best described as having an advantage.
    (Ecky’s Law)

  29. “Of course the other major concern I have at the minute is EC & Ron’s impending nuptials if an item up thread is to be believed…”

    Why, codgY, ah do believe you’re jealous!
    Hope you don’t mind me asking, codger, but are you diligent in the upkeep and maintenance of your lawn? No need to be prurient, mister, I mean the lawn adjoining your abode?

  30. KR & codger
    Hmmmm, I don’t think a woman would use the word ‘poontang’ about herself. I think this adds weight to your hypothesis codge. It seems Tabitha is primarily of the male orientation, if only in the genetic chromosome sense of slightly more than 50/50. – Not that there’s anything wrong with that.

  31. It is a real possibility that the Dems could be looking at having more than 60 seats in the Senate after November. With that kind of majority and Barack in the White House, there would be no stopping the new President’s agenda. Senate races are going to be almost as exciting as the big one! Go Al Franken in Minnesota and Kay Hagan in North Carolina!!!!!

  33. this from HuffPo….

    Sen. John McCain appeared on the Today Show this morning and continued to promote his idea of a long occupation in Iraq. But whatever merits there may be for his message, his delivery is once again promising to get him into trouble.

    When asked if he knew when American troops could start to return home, McCain responded:

    “No, but that’s not too important. What’s important is the casualties in Iraq.”

  38. Remember Sebelius’ response to Bush’s State of the Union – “join with us, Mr President”… yawn.

    She doesn’t help BO win Kansas. Can she be any better in the rest of the rust belt compared to HRC? If somewhere near as good, then perhaps allows Obama an “out” from picking HRC.

    Webb is needed in the Senate, might bring Virginia – but this election is all about the rust belt and older women there more specifically – given past pronouncements, not sure how Webb will appeal there!

    Obama has to crack working class Dems in the rust belt or he’s in trouble. Cannot take any risks with Michigan, Ohio & Pensylvania (I cannot repeat this enough). If he can pull away from McCain in this segment (either due to his own appeal or McCain’s screwups) then he doesn’t need HRC – but this is far from proven as I see it. Certainly possible though – maybe it is for the best that he tries it on his own and if successful then can do it his way, but otherwise has to accommodate HRC in order to win (not an illegitimate step by any means!).

  40. JV-
    blackberry nip??!!…
    I’d travel the continent for that little treat.

    btw- I declare right here and now –
    McCain is Toast.
    You heard it first on PB.( and you know how accurate I am with these predictions).
    Forget the psephology and just take a look with your own 2 eyes and ears, and compare the 2 men.
    Toast.

  41. Expat

    Rasmussen(Obama’s worst pollster) just released a new Michigan poll today, the first since the Michigan delegate resolution, and Obama is now leading 45-43.

    He is leading in all 3 rust belt seats, narrowly in Ohio and Michigan. He will win these states in Nov on the economy, as it worsens, and petrol keeps climbing etc etc.

    Sebelius has strong Ohio and Michigan roots and is a solid, democratic 60yo white woman.

    Forget Hillary. The Clinton era is over.

  42. I read a piece by Carl Bernstein the other day, and it was a short biography of Clinton.

    Apart from stories of Bill’s philandering, there was a great line about her bar exams:

    Passed in Arkansas, failed in D.C.

    Pity she didn’t heed the message way back then, huh?

  43. Catrina – congratulations!
    The brilliant and erudite Tabitha says you ‘suks’.
    Such witty insults are a right of passage for veteran Bludgers and you join the hallowed halls.

    She does us girls proud. (Apart from clearly needing a few personal hygiene tips, but we’ll discuss that in private with her.)

  46. HarryH – I don’t think HRC is the ‘best choice’ – what you say is encouraging, but still way too close for comfort right now. Let’s give Obama some time to entrench a lead in the rust belt – if he can by July/Aug then I’ll agree with you that he can go it without HRC.

    Personally, not convinced Sebelius is all that impressive – but as a halfway bet if numbers are looking ok, certainly acceptable.

    The absolute true ‘best choice’ is a tough one – must be a strong help in dealing with the legislature and some fgn policy oomph, methinks. Maybe Chris Dodd (I’d keep Biden for SecState and Edwards for AG)…

    You think Sebelius is the best VP choice – all tactical considerations aside?

  48. Expat

    I think Sebelius looks a solid choice..but it really doesn’t mater what i or we think.
    If she is Obama’s pick then he thinks she will be suitable to the campaign he wants to run and the message he wants to sell.
    Obama will win or lose this campaign irrespective of his VP.

    From my viewing and study of him, i think Sebelius will be perfect for him as VP in the campaign and especially in his Presidency. They both exude calmness and thoughtfulness and open minds.

    But we will see.

  49. 2 interesting things in the last few days though i thought.

    Wes Clark has clearly made a statement today that he is willing to publicly take on McCain on national defense. Is this a play for VP? who knows…maybe…or maybe a cabinet defense role.

    A few nights ago Wes Clark was guest speaker at a private Kansas Dem dinner and it was leaked out that he introduced Sebelius as “definately the next vice president of the United States”.

    Also in a tv appearance the other day as an Obama spokesperson Sibelius said she was really looking forward to travelling the country and spreading Barry’s message.

    Do all governors “travel the country” during the campaign?

    Interesting.

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