“No decisions tonight”

The headline says “CNN projects Obama clinches nomination”, but during what in many ways has sounded like a concession speech, Clinton has declared: “I will be making no decisions tonight”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,132 comments on ““No decisions tonight””

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  1. EC

    #1954 impeachment

    Were you giving the barbarian compliments there ?

    Re the Impeacment Articles listed earlier , think the ones needing at least public prosecution seem to include Articles: iii, iv , v , vi , xv and xix. With the Climate change Article obstruction , that’s hard to prove without Big Oil & Lobbysists incriminating docs. Ironical that Bill Clinton was subject to a 2 years impeachment game over ‘sex’ with one girl (given JFK’s superior ‘record’) vs Iraq.

    With the impeachment action I differ from some earlier posters here. The “impeachment action” itself , despite Pelosi’s “supposed” opposition , serves a lot of purposes. Makes the invasion justification for Iraq the actual issue , makes “Republicans” Bush/Cheney solely responsible not the Senate made up of including Dems , which ties back to the Republican McCain. It also takes away from McCain his biggest Iraq selling “asset” ie he Mccain supported the “successful surge” and instead highlights to US voters that the ‘surge’ is irrelevant if the invasion justification evidence was grossly falsified & therefore US shouldn’t have been there in the first place

    The other “impeachment benefits” include tying up Bush/Cheny etc away from Iran & other silly ideas, it also makes solely Bush/Cheney acountable if not by actually impeachment then by history , and thereby tarnishing th Repug ‘brand name’ for future elections , it also sends a message to the US public & to other Countrys the Dems standards are different seeing the Dems Congress controlled Phase (ii) Intell Report is transparent vs the earlier Phase( i) Repug controlled Congress Intell one which is now prooved was not. Finally the impeachment based mainly on the phase (ii) Intell Report finally clears the Democrat Party & its then voting Senators for responsibility for the Iraq invasion decision and places it 100% where it belongs , to Bush/Cheney , to Republicans , a price the Republicans may politically pay for longterm

  2. When are people going to get it through their heads that Hillary Clinton, and some others in Democrat ranks, were NOT decieved about the Iraq War lead-up. They knew exactly what was going on and were completely in lockstep with the propaganda.
    Just because you have a D next to your name, it doesn’t mean you are not a signed up member of the War Machine.

    Thank god she was defeated and someone with a slight chance of changing things will win the presidency.

    Clinton or McCain would have been a disaster.

  3. Optimist 1999 & 2000 [“I am not opposed to all wars. I’m opposed to dumb wars”]
    Very true – experience as a failure is not a recommendation. Just like in horse racing.
    What Obama said was courageous at that time. While Hillary and the others in the conga line of s*ckholes and political wimps were going along with the idiot, Obama was speaking against the popular tide, showing great potential for leadership. Now that potential will come to fruition in November. McCain is cactus – or at least his winning states will be largely limited to those where cactus is endemic.

  4. Ah, the old “experience” argument. The most experienced POTUS in recent history is the current one.
    End of stupid, vacuous argument.
    Unless you want another stupid vacuous POTUS, in which case vote for McCain.
    Next…

  6. And the race for the middle is on in earnest:
    http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/06/11/mccain_ad_asserts_his_hatred_of_war/

    Will McCain be able to bring out the women and centrists he’s targetting with ads like this, and also the gun-totin’, god-fearin’ GOP base? To say that his messages are going to have to be very carefully calibrated to manage it, would be an understatement. Managing his campaign would be like walking on egg-shells for 5 months.

  7. Diogenes & other posters

    The MSN in the US is so hatefully bised that it burys the truth in an avalanch of lies including against both Hillary & Edwards that their statements are camoflaged to the Public by the ‘right’s’ volume and its hatred. disconnect Fox

    In 2005 , Hillary publicly said her vote was a mistake and further quote “if Congress had been asked [to authorize the war], based on what we know now, we never would have agreed”. Hillary then went on to say she took full responsibility for her error, but insisted that she had been misled by false intelligence on Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction presented by the Bush administration. She also added citing “assurances” the administration then gave that they would first seek to resolve the issue of weapons of mass destruction peacefully through United Nations sponsored inspections, that their assurances turned out to be empty ones.

    Now the MNS & Fox that I watched Fox for 2 years after this , continued to lie and falsely say Hillary Clinton did not think her decision was wrong nor that she regretted it. Later some ‘left’ media who don’t like her repeated this. Fiction becomes fact to the public if you don’t have alternative info. John Edwards made similar comments in 2005 as well

  9. Is m’Lady Huff on drug or something? Another one that the Hillary haters here would not like, but WTF:

    [Clinton in 2012? Why not, Huffington says.

    Actually you know, I found her speech on Saturday so incredibly important for women because I have written as you know for my “Fearless” book a lot about how a lot of women have held (themselves) back because of the fear of failure. That has been the greatest fear in women. I mean, men have it too, but women, we have it in a much more intense way.

    She failed in her immediate goal of winning the nomination, but this was in a way a historic triumph for women, because the question, “Can a woman be commander-in-chief?” will never be asked again. Can a woman run a great campaign, raise money and get millions of votes? All these questions have now been answered, thanks to her race. As a mother of two teenaged daughters, I’m constantly saying to them, always take the risk, go for your dreams. If you fail, it doesn’t matter. It’s like there is nobody who has succeeded in life who has not failed along the way. (Her speech) was a concession speech but at the same time it was a triumphant speech. I thought it was an incredibly moving, powerful moment for the country and especially for women.

    And would she support Hillary in 2012 if she ran again, and the circumstances were right?

    Sure. Absolutely.]

    http://blogs.reuters.com/mediafile/2008/06/10/clinton-in-2012-why-not-huffington-says/

  10. Ron at 2001, very cogent thoughts on impeachment and its ramifications. Of the many points you raise, I have no serious disagreement with any of them.
    Do, however think that Dems could ferret out the goods on BushCo re Climate Change stalling, obfuscation, dissemination and general greed-addled bastardry. What bothers me is why the Dems had to act in such a supine manner after the last mid-terms when voters mandated Congress to get pro-active on the big issues. Two wasted years. No wonder Congress’s approval rating is in the water closet.

    Ron, might I just add what a pleasure it is communicating with you when you’re in a 2001-type non-spaced odyssey kind of demeanour. Like it a lot when you cut the crap, throw the bullshit out the window and make a bee-line for rationality:)

  12. Finn, it’s a “known known” that Axelrod & Plouffe and Players adjacent to Obi’s war room have got the “Obama File” covered. Probably have many quite sophisicated responses to each swiftboat dodge and dart.

    It’s what will come from out of left field that Team Obi will have to be apt at swatting. Rolling the might of the Clinton Dynasty was a monumental feat that has yet to gain the recognition of “conventional wisdom”.
    One might opine that the succes of Barry’s campaign depends on defusing Bomb-Bomb’s best shots or better still, converting them to political IEDs that go Bang-Bang in Old Man McAngry’s camp.

  13. Oh my God Finns, thanks sooo much for enlightening me, an elitist black communist muslim, run for hills Ya’ll he’s comin ta git ya

  14. Seems the smarter Dems are starting to distance themselves from the November turkey -with Gov Strickland of Ohio ruling himself out as VP today.

    On another front is it true that Kirri is in fact Belinda Neal? The anger management issues seem a bit of a giveaway.

  15. ESJ, it looks like another Veep Fav has just shoot himself on the foot. Like his brother before him, he took a rebel stand, nah, nah, nah, nah……..

    [Barack Obama’s vice presidential vetting team will undoubtedly run across some quirky and potentially troublesome issues as it goes about the business of scouring the backgrounds of possible running mates. But it’s unlikely they’ll find one so curious as Virginia Democratic Sen. Jim Webb’s affinity for the cause of the Confederacy.

    Webb is no mere student of the Civil War era. He’s an author, too, and he’s left a trail of writings and statements about one of the rawest and most sensitive topics in American history.

    He has suggested many times that while the Confederacy is a symbol to many of the racist legacy of slavery and segregation, for others it simply reflects Southern pride. In a June 1990 speech in front of the Confederate Memorial at Arlington National Cemetery, posted on his personal website, he lauded the rebels’ “gallantry,” which he said “is still misunderstood by most Americans.”]

    http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0608/10994.html

  17. I think 13 states matter in this election:

    Democrat States in 04:
    Pensylvania (21)
    Wisconsin (10)
    Minnesota (10)
    Michigan (17)
    New Hampshire (4)

    Republican States in 04:
    Iowa (7)
    New Mexico (5)
    Ohio (20)
    Colorado (9)
    Missouri (11)
    Florida (27)
    Nevada (5)
    Virginia (13)

    If Obama wins all, he gets to 349 EC votes. I’m giving McCain 189 and Obama 190 of EC votes not covered above – ie, no switch from 04 in those states.

    Greatest likelihood for McCain from the above list: Florida, Virginia, Missouri, New Hampshire & Nevada… that makes it 289-249 Obama. If these 5 toughies + Ohio go McCain then we’re talking a 269-269 tie!!

    Michigan, Pensylvania and Ohio comprise 58. Obama HAS to win 2 of these 3 or else pick up from the 5 toughies above… look at these 8 states – he has to pick Hilary for VP? He probably spends >50% of his budget just in these 8 states alone.

    Wisconsin & Minnesota are more defensive efforts – if he loses there then he’s dead. And 3 more in Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado (21) – the latter three would make up for losing one of OH, PA or Michigan. He probably spends 25% of his budget in these 5 states, and 25% on all the rest combined!

    Use Bill Clinton in Missouri, Virginia & maybe Florida; Hilary there as well and in the rust Belt; Richardson in NM & Colorado.

    He can’t take any gamble on MI, PA and OH – these are crucial. If not Hilary, then has to be someone who helps him there big time… no-one can more than HRC.

    That’s how I see it at the moment.

  19. taking a break from politicians, here is a truly nice human being:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/06/10/ailing-paul-newman-turns_n_106341.html

    and here is a Newman exerpt on rumours he would enter the political field in 06:

    The robustly liberal actor dismisses Internet rumours he plans to run against Connecticut’s conservative Democratic senator, Joe Lieberman.

    “It’d be lunatic to try to get into politics at my age. I don’t think I’d have the stomach for it.”

    But he says he is worried by the policies of the Bush administration.

    “I wish I felt a little more comfortable about the direction that we’re going,” Newman said carefully. “It does not seem to be of the people, by the people and for the people. It seems to be about something else completely different.

    “I think part of it is the media’s fault for not being more aggressive and persistent and nasty and I think it’s the people’s fault for not paying attention.

    “That’s not a good combination. It allows people in government to do pretty much what they want.”

  20. Poor old McCain has got so many problems – how does he propose to attract unhappy HRC supporters while simultaneously energising the Republican base? I think it’s a mistake to place too much faith in analysis that is based on the 2004 electoral map given that we know McCain will not get anywhere near the amount of support from evangelicals Bush did. McCain needs to fire up the base without turning off the middle – a very hard task indeed given that Obama appears to have created a new base for the Dems amongst young people – I can see an election day where the gun-toting bible bashers stay home to watch Hannity crying into his chin while the young people go to the polls in droves for Obama.
    The real fun is watching the right-wing rummage around for a smear that works against Obama – he’s a priveleged elite, he’s a muslim, he’s a commie, he’s a “halfrican”, his wife hates America, he’s in bed with Hamas, he’s a terrorist fist-bumper…..and so on and so on and so on.
    What a pathetic bunch of all-shouting, all-smearing halfwits.

  21. HarryH – any actual confirmation of what the illness is?Newman has long been a favourite of mine from The Hustler to Hudsucker and many more – what a truly good man.

  27. 2017
    Expat Follower Says:
    June 11th, 2008 at 7:34 pm
    “I think 13 states matter in this election: Pensylvania (21)….Virginia (13)..”
    ….
    You’re probably right, EF. These arenas will be the most prominent in coming weeks. Of the states you list, only Florida looks difficult for Obama at this stage. But a lot of other things will run his way, especially his ability to run on-the-ground campaigns around the country. Voter registrations, pre-poll voting, fund-raising, get-out-the-vote programs will all be Obama strengths this time, while McCain appparently has almost no campaign structure of his own. This will make him very dependant on the Republican machine – the same machine which is under-funded, under-strength and unimpressed with McCain.

    McCain is behind in the polls, short of money, short of workers and short of policies. It will be very hard for him to defend his terrain, let alone take on Obama in his preferred territories.

  28. My tip for Obama’s VP has been Kathleen Sibelius for weeks now. The drumbeats are really starting to beat now too.

    The pundits and assorted shitty, indebted journo’s have weighed in by the thousands now on who “should” get the job.

    But it has been hinted by insiders for a while now that Obama wants Sibelius. And it is he whose opinion matters here. Sibelius is a perfect compliment to Barack Obama, and most importantly Obama’s message of unity, a New Washington and thoughtful Governing.

    My opinion that it would be her crystalized when the chief Repug inside media headkicker, Robert Novak, wrote a hit piece on her a few weeks ago.

    We will see.

  29. I agree HarryH, at least from my remote nest. Sibelius sounds like she would be a great match-up. She has proven she can appeal across party lines, but is a thorough-going democrat.

  31. From wikipedia…..She has great credentials. Here is the first bit.

    Kathleen Sebelius (born May 15, 1948) is currently serving as the 44th Governor of Kansas.[1] She is the second female governor of Kansas, the 2008 respondent to the State of the Union address,[2] and chair-emerita of the Democratic Governors Association.
    Sebelius has endorsed Democratic presumptive nominee Barack Obama in the United States presidential election, 2008. She has also been mentioned as a possible vice president choice for Barack Obama.[3]

    Sebelius was born and raised in a Catholic family in Cincinnati, Ohio. She attended the Summit Country Day School, a Roman Catholic secondary school, followed by Trinity Washington University, a Roman Catholic university in Washington, D.C., and later earned a Master of Public Administration degree from the University of Kansas. She moved to Kansas in 1974 at the age of 26, where she served for eight years as a representative in the Kansas Legislature and eight years as Insurance Commissioner before being elected governor.
    Sebelius is the daughter of former Ohio governor John J. Gilligan, and thus they became the first father/daughter governor pair in the United States after her election.[4] Her husband K. Gary Sebelius[5] is a federal magistrate judge and the son of former U.S. Representative Keith Sebelius, a Republican. They have two sons. She also visits her childhood and current vacation home, located in Leland, Michigan, north of Traverse City, Michigan.
    [edit]Early political career

    She was first elected to the Kansas House of Representatives in 1986. In 1994 she left the House to run for state insurance commissioner and stunned political forecasters by winning — the first time a Democrat had won in more than 100 years. She is credited with bringing the agency out from under the influence of the insurance industry. She refused to take campaign contributions from insurers and blocked the proposed merger of Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Kansas, the state’s largest health insurer, with an Indiana-based company. The decision by Sebelius marked the first time the corporation had been rebuffed in its acquisition attempts.”[6]

  32. She has the lot really – clearly smart, hard-working, capable, independant-minded and politically skilled. She is also an Obama loyalist and has favourable geographical attachments: Ohio, Michigan and Kansas. If she were VP, and the unthinkable were to happen to Obama, she would be the proverbial safe-hands. (Compare her with the deeply sinister Cheney..!)

  33. blindoptimist @ 2031
    You might be interested in this aspect of Sibelius I posted about a while back.
    An amusing bit of trivia. But it proves her liberal credentials though, because she has publicly supported her son’s design of, and marketing of the board game:

    Kathleen Sibelius seems to share Obama’s philosophical approach on some things. She also has a 23 yr old son who is marketing a prison-themed board game [he designed] on the internet for $34.95 – it’s called “Don’t Drop the Soap”.
    If you don’t believe me:
    http://edition.cnn.com/2008/LIVING/wayoflife/01/28/dont.drop.soap.ap/index.html

  34. Some good points about Sebilius and I agree she would be great, but i think the more likely choice will still be Jim Webb. It seems to make better political sense. He has more appeal to conservatives given his military service and role as Reagan’s Sec. of Navy, his son is an Iraq war veteran, he still represents change in that he’s a new Senator and he’s from Virginia.

  37. And why conservatives prefer Obama to McCain. It’s the war, the money and the perversion of the Government. On these matters, I’m a conservative too:

    http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=46a816dc-f843-41ec-9fe4-fbeac17bcfca&p=1

    Obama literally embodies so many things for so many people. He is going to be very, very hard to beat!

    In nearly every quarter of the movement, you can find conservatives irate over the Iraq war–a war they believe transgresses core principles. And it’s this frustration with the war–and McCain’s pronouncements about victory at any cost–that has led many conservatives into Obama’s arms. Francis Fukuyama, the neoconservative theorist, recently told an Australian journalist that he would reluctantly vote for Obama to hold the Republican Party accountable “for a big policy failure” in Iraq. And he seems to view Obama as the best means for preserving American power, since Obama “symbolizes the ability of the United States to renew itself in a very unexpected way.”

    You can find similar sentiments coursing through the Boston University professor Andrew Bacevich’s seminal Obamacon manifesto in The American Conservative. He believes that the war in Iraq has undermined the possibilities for conservative reform at home. The prospects for a conservative revival, therefore, depend on withdrawing from Iraq. Thus the necessity of Obama. “For conservatives, Obama represents a sliver of hope. McCain represents none at all. The choice turns out to be an easy one,” Bacevich concludes.

    How substantial is the Obamacon phenomenon? Well, it has even penetrated National Review, the intellectual anchor of the conservative movement. There’s Jeffrey Hart, who has been a senior editor at the magazine since 1968 and even wrote a history of the magazine, The Making of the American Conservative Mind; and Wick Allison, who once served as the magazine’s publisher.

    Neither man has renounced his conservatism. Both have come away impressed by Obama’s rhetorical acumen. This is a particular compliment coming from Hart, who wrote speeches for both Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan. They both like that Obama couches his speeches in a language of uplift and unity. When describing his support for Obama, Allison pointed me in the direction of a column that his wife (who has never supported a Democrat) wrote in The Dallas Morning News: “He speaks with candor and elegance against the kind of politics that have become so dispiriting and for the kind of America I would like to see. As a man, I find Mr. Obama to be prudent, thoughtful, and courageous. His life story embodies the conservative values that go to the core of my beliefs.”

  38. I have also backed Sebelius on Betfair at $7. It should be a woman in my view. I reckon she would be a good choice. There don’t seem top be too many other women around who are qualified, so she’s got to be a good bet at those odds. If it’s not a bloke, it’s her.

    Some might say she is a bit close to Obama in her political philosophy, but I don’t think its an imperative to use the VP to shore up perceived ‘weaknesses’ in the Presidential candidate. How many VP’s are chosen to complement the Pres anyway? I don’t think Dan Quayle was chosen to bring any towering strengths to the ticket he was on, for example!

  39. I think Sebelius would be a mistake because it would incense Hillary supporters who would obviously say if you wanted a woman why not Hillary.

  41. 2036
    Andrew Says:
    June 11th, 2008 at 10:33 pm
    I’m with Optimist- I think Jim Webb is the best choice, but I am sure he said weeks ago that he wasnt interested???..
    ……
    Yes, he has declared he won’t do it. Maybe he likes being a Senator more than an understudy. Or maybe he just wants to give Obama a flak-free run…

  42. Now JV we all KNOW why not Hillary but she does have her supporters, and why rock the boat (although it would be enjoyable to watch!!)

  43. I think Webb may still change his mind….don’t be surprised.
    One choice that hasn’t been talked about is the popular Democratic Governor of McCain’s home state, Janet Napolitano. She’s a two term Governor, appeals to women and would force McCain to reconsider taking Arizona for granted…just a thought.

  44. It’s interesting to watch the metamorphosis of Clintistas into McCainites. They are, for the most part, still coy about declaring their affiliation, but the signals are all there. And like maggots crawling to a fresh corpse, Glen and Tabitha have appeared. November follows November – such seasonal bliss!

  46. Blindoptimist, do you have a reference for Webb ruling out VP?
    Virginia press was saying that he refused to rule it out as recently as six days ago and he was pretty shy about the issue on The Daily Show last night.

  48. The argument against Jim Webb, from Obama and the Dem Party’s pov, is that he is a required Senator. His term runs thru to 2012 and it would be very risky to try to win 2 Senate seats in Virginia(M.Warner looks like winning the other seat from the retiring Repug) if he opted out of his Seat.

    There is a very real chance at getting 59-60 Senate seats in Nov. Dems will be loathe to lose Webb’s seat.

    Sibellius’ term for Governor runs out in 2010 and is really at a loose end after that. VP suits her, Obama and the Party. Her Ohio and Michigan roots are an added bonus.

  49. Hillary supporters are going to be offside regardless. I don’t think Obama should run his campaign with the object of mollifying these voters. He has his own constituencies and has to keep faith with them and the wider public.

  50. blindoptimist, McCain’s rhetoric on Iraq is baffling, both from a political and intellectual point of view. He previously said US troops might be there 100 years, and at times he has appeared to be an even more strident supporter than the Bush administration. What exactly is he thinking by tying himself to the single most unpopular issue? And how is it that he is still competitive in the polls??

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