The headline says “CNN projects Obama clinches nomination”, but during what in many ways has sounded like a concession speech, Clinton has declared: “I will be making no decisions tonight”.
“No decisions tonight”
Analysis and discussion of elections and opinion polls in Australia
The headline says “CNN projects Obama clinches nomination”, but during what in many ways has sounded like a concession speech, Clinton has declared: “I will be making no decisions tonight”.
Frank I really don’t think It’ll make that much difference after all Kennedy and Johnson HATED each other.
VP is essentially baggage anyway
#93 – Max, you are in big big trouble now. are you tough enough?
[Maybe if he went to Pennsylvania and met the man who lost his job but can’t even afford the gas to drive around and look for a new one, he’d understand that we can’t afford four more years of our addiction to oil from dictators. That man needs us:
* to pass an energy policy that works with automakers to raise fuel standards,
* and makes corporations pay for their pollution,
* and oil companies invest their record profits in a clean energy future
* an energy policy that will create millions of new jobs that pay well and can’t be outsourced.
That’s the change we need.]
yep, is that easy. Just say them and they will happen. Is this guy from Disneyland.
Just say it, I WILL SIGN KYOTO. that’s the change we need.
Rage on with the mixed messages Finns! Obama must reach out to Hillary…but he’s a crawler! A nuanced response to energy and the environment is crap…but just sign Kyoto! Yeah!
Breaking: Hillary will be VP…………..for McCain LOL LOL LOL
Breaking: Democrats nominate turkey for November
HarryH @ 97
Who exactally? I think they will have been on my list. It will not be Bill Richardson. He and Obama are South polls of a magnite so to speak. Obama needs a north poll. Ideally they will have good name recognition be southern or mid western. They will be white but pro woman enough (exit Webb). If you notice 4 of my top 5 were governors or former governors. They will need to have a good chance of pulling their own state. Age and lengthof servie plays a role. Not to long, not to short.
Bill Ritter: Obama will probably win Colorado anyway), Vilsak, culver (will win iowa anyway), Ted Strickland (old to coonsevative), Ed Rendell (too old, too defensive), Sherrod Brown( Maybe but not there that long and only a senator).
Phil Bredesen (way too old), Kathleen Blanco (Katrina), Steve Beshear (not even there a year), Sam Nunn ( If only he were 10 years younger)
Frankly i think they will be from my top 8.
EC 100
I sat through the whole speech waiting for her concession … instead she asked for a write in to help her make up her mind in the coming days – as you said WTF?
That’s why at the end all the commentators on the networks were acting like stunt mullets – nobody could believe the way she was ignoring reality.
BTW love the fish circus!
That took you all day to think of that line didn’t it eddy, so witty
In the mean time Obama will probaby gain about 20000 votes on Clinton today, increasing his popular vote lead
Obama with Hillary as Veep would probably crush the Republicans by a simple flood of turnout.
[Assuming that the rumored Michelle Obama “Whitey” video never turns up, or is confiscated if it does before it’s broadcast]
The problem is having the Clintons running around in the background causing mischief on the one hand, and as Ecky says “the wrong face” on the other.
But if Obama made Hillary Veep as well as Secretary of Health – the latter would be solved because she’d become the face of Universal Healthcare, and would certainly reduce the magnitude of the former because she’d be too busy to get up to much mischief.
Bill on the other hand….
The big problem with choosing Hillary would be how to counter the Repubs national security narrative – which is what a Veep other than Hillary could bring to the table if they were a General or some other well credentialed white bloke with a history of fight’n bad guys.
Al @ 95,
I miss Cristian too, but I assume at some point he will start writing in the oz? Has to be a matter of time, surely. Unless he has already started and I’ve missed it. I think Keane has improved dramatically in the past month, along with Crikey itself, since they’ve finally stopped blowing smoke up Kevin Rudd’s arse. For an outlet striving to be different and independent of the mainstream, well, you’d have had a hard time picking it.
With the exception of Mr Rundle, who has been superb if not slightly biased.
Pancho @ 96
Tend to disagree. I think she has been running that argument solidly for three or four months – before Super Tuesday she was playing the ‘inevitability’ card, not the experience one she has been harping on about since.
I tend to think she scored some hits with it as well, you only have to look at the recent string of results to confirm that.
Nonetheless, whether or not McCain can effectively ramp up the tempo remains to be seen. The more I see of this campaign, the more I think his age will be more of an asset than a liability. Time will tell though, and there’s plenty of time to discuss it.
Finns,
pffft, give me a break I spent much of last year coming on here and taking heat for supporting the Howard government. I did a random count one day, and from memory something along the lines of 5% of people were on my side in these debates – and this was on the good days. I had no chance once October hit. This is pissy compared to that, you’ve had it easy! 🙂
Anyway, I’ve always reserved judgement on the McCain-Obama battle, and will continue to do so
The popular vote means nothing. Nada. Zip. Zero. Why? Because some states have open primaries, some have closed primaries, some are caucuses. It’s not even worth discussing; but it’s all the Clinton camp had left to cling to. Go tell Minnesota that because only 200,000 people took part the caucuses it’s only a quarter as important as Missouri which had 800,000 people vote in its primary on the same day, even though they have the same size delegations.
#110, Poss – [Assuming that the rumored Michelle Obama “Whitey” video never turns up, or is confiscated if it does before it’s broadcast] – not another “gate”. Surely, Obama would not throw her under the bus.
Interesting that Obama opened his speech about his grandma. But which one? the racist one or the one that assumed responsibility for him while his mum was savvy around in Menteng, Jakarta as the white Buana.
Let’s indulge this idea of HRC as VP Dem nominee a little furthur.
Could you imagine her strutting aroung the Dem War Room during the next five months with the antsyness of one who feels righteously aggrieved that she has been spurned on a vile “technicality” from getting her claws on the POTUS Seal? (Remember BillBo’s “Hillary’s Downfall” link from You Tube?)
To put it mildly Hillary would be a disruptive influence, a daily nightmare relentlessly sapping esprit de corps. Then there’s the package-deal angle with Bubba. Any political marriage broker with half a brain can see from a mile away that such a union would be “untenable”.
Team Obama will have enough on their plate dealing with the MSM’s “Adoration of Johnny Bomb-Bomb”, rather than to have to unnecessarily deal with a self-inflicted Insider Swiftboat!
Max at 111,
For what it’s worth with my conflict of interest – I think Bernard, Tingles and George Meg are the three best nationally focussed political journalists in the country…. and then there’s daylight.
And they’re excellent for different reasons, Meg because he has an inquisitive mind and actually does real issue analysis, Tingles because she’s seen all the shit before and calls it like it is and Bernard because he “gets it”. Especially the nuance and detail that fly over the heads of most people but are actually kind of important, like the way the public service actually works for instance (and he’s one of the funniest writers around to boot)
I’d think the same if I didn’t write for Crikey.
Possum
115
I would add Chris Graham and Brian Johnstone from NIT for Indigenous issues. Chris has contacts in the remotest communities.
Possum @ 115
Shaun Carney?
To each his own Possum. I just find that sometimes Bernard misses the spot, dwelling on things that aren’t quite as important as they may initially seem. His work on the most pointless debate I think we’ve had in the last year (oil prices) I’ve enjoyed.
I agree Ecky – she’d be a disruptive nightmare.
But I wonder if that would actually play out in a meaningful way if she was given SoH as a chaser to the Veep. Becoming the face of the biggest Democrat policy wish in history – Universal Healthcare – as well as being seen to be not only its architect, but the deliverer of the policy is something that even Clinton wouldnt sneeze at.
Especially now as it’s extremely doable in political terms – every major corporation in the US with a history longer than 2 decades would be lining up behind it, spending big bucks singing its praises and threatening to withdraw campaign funding to anyone that opposed it, simply to get the health liabilities of their current and in many cases, previous workforce off their books.
She’d be a media tart and almost impossible to manage in that regard – but she’d also be the ultimate attack dog to unleash in Appalachia. She’d bring Florida to the table and turn 6 states that Obama wouldnt have a pink fit of a chance into play.
And as VP – she wouldnt mobilise the Republican base nearly as much as if she were the Dem nominee.
If the Dems want to run a 50 State strategy – tying down McCain in the backblocks of traditional Red States with Hillary pouring working class buckets on him, Obama mobilising a voting block that doesnt usually vote and McCain trying desperately to bring out his base to save those states – Hillary in the Veep ticket might not be a bad way to go.
It certainly makes it a hell of a lot easier to grab States like PA, OH and FL by huge margins because the Repubs would be reduced to firewalling.
Especially with all the money that a truly united Dem party could flush into advertising.
And perhaps, just maybe, despite the taste, it might be better to have her inside the tent pissing out. She could certainly never even think about playing spoiler if she was in the tent.
“In becoming the presumptive nominee — the first African-American to ever lead a major-party ticket — he put himself just one step away from an achievement that would echo around the globe: No black man has ever led a major Western democracy, much less the world’s leading superpower.”
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0608/10830.html
Hello FINNS , amigo
#102 (Kyoto , something that does affect us all)
How many times have we brought Kyoto up. got me going mate , climate change
Obama has repeatedly avoided interviwers questions of “will you ratify Kyoto”
If the answer was ‘yes’ , he would say so. Obvioudsly the answer is “no”. Instead Obama’s answer is always to say he will set up a competing forum to Kyoto , which is a cute way of saying ‘no’. This is a fact
What Obama proposes INSTEAD of Kyoto is a Global Energy Forum — based on the G8+5, which included all G-8 members plus Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South (but not ‘oz’ the World’s 3rd worst emitter per capita). Obama’s reserve ‘spin’ defence is Kyoto only goes to 2012 , so lets address from 2013 , which still avoids ratifying Kyoto doesn’t it ! and implys let the world pollute itself to death frf the next 4 years till Obama ‘looks’ at it post 2013 with 13 only Nations.
Hillary will , a Kyoto mark 11.
The 3 Amigos have for 3 months , (between The approx Obama supporters sniping at the 3 amigos and us returning fire) have pushed for debate on Ktot , healthcare & other domestic policys of Hillary vs Obama The Obama supporters
almost totally for 3 months will not discuss candidates policys. william’s site records are the evidence , so any casual live new blogers here shouuld go through all of the thousands of blogs made here & they’ll see the indisputable evidence and so shouuld not be making blase uninformed views from casual/infrequent live viewings of this site about anyone That was Obama supporters perogative & right but cann’t have the the apple & eat it
What you are trying to get Amigo is a policy committemnt (Obama to say ‘I will ratify Kyoto’) Mate , some of the new guys live today need to go over the last 3 months blogs closely and ignore the 35 to 3 Amigos snpes & our return fire , and look at we have regularly perued policy issues and the Obama supporters will not discuss Obama’s policy at all or avoid our Kyoto questions with a red herring (Obama’s competing to Kyoto conference of about 13 most polluting nations)
If climate change is one of the top 4 world crisises (& I think it is) then neither Obama or McCain will seriously address it without without threats from Edwards , Hillary or Gore
Al – Bernards job is to report on the daily happening in politics. If what’s going on is superficial shit, he’s still got to report on it.
That’s the big difficulty for all political journos that are expected to do the same. How to make fluff and nonense interesting.
Only a select few can do it well.
Westie – I like Shaun Carney when he’s good, and when he’s good he’s Good (Like Phil Coorey), but I think the daily grind kills him.
If a lot of the political journos were allowed to write when they had something to say, rather than being forced to write as part of their job description, journalism in the country would improve dramatically.
But no one has figured out a model like that which can pay the bills yet.
93
Max
I find it interesting that when someone wants to disparage someone who’s just collected the biggest endorsement in the history of the Democratic party, and injected a level of enthusiasm and passion not seen since the halcyon days of JFK, the writer says something inane like “he only has uplifting words”
FFS, politicians ONLY have words!
And Clinton? An utterly stuffed up effort to get a universal health plan, a husband she could not keep from embarrassing himself in front of the entire world, a vote to let GW Bush ruin a Middle East country on the shallowest of stitched up ‘evidence’, and a primary campaign of such ineptitude that she squandered the best hand ANY candidate ever took to the race!
Really, but Obama’s only got ‘uplifting words’….give us a break! LOL
The only problem with all that Ron is that it’s not the Presidents job to ratify Kyoto – it’s the Senates.
If Obama or any President started rabbiting on about ratifying this or that protocol or treaty, they’d be effectively talking shit.
yawn. Once again amigos:
http://www.barackobama.com/issues/energy/
Plenty more on the above link to have a look at as well. Or you could offer up your support for a gas tax holiday. hahahahaha.
My advice to Mr. Obama, in his effort to unite the Party and win over Hillary’s supporters – The supreme excellence is not to win a hundred victories in a hundred battles. The supreme excellence is to subdue the armies of your enemies without having to fight them. – Sun Tzu, The Art of War. c.400-320 b.c.
Possum @ 122
Oh, The Daily Grind. That dreadful old rag.
And as a reviewer of rock biographies?
Poss
Clinton as VP just aint gonna happen.
If he brings her onto his ticket, his message of change is dead.
He will win easily without her.
Penn , Ohio, Michigin, Wisconsin, Minnesota will all be won on the economy.
Obama on his own “change” message will win Colorado, New Mexico and probably Virginia.
The anti War base anchor him in educated areas.
She is not the difference between winning and losing.
Obama won’t fold for her. If he was going to he would have this week.
Him and his team have run to a finely tuned plan. They aint gonna let Billary f*ck it up at the last minute.
Part of his plan is governing in a new fashion.
Team Hillbilly are 90’s leftovers. The relics of the Boomers.
Hillary clinton during the primaries won all the most populous states which have the most numbers in electoral college votes during a presidential election(California, NewYork texas florida Pennslyvania ect). Barack Obama won a lot of the less populous states which although overall showed his primary vote higher than higher and as subsequence his overall delegate count. Hillary also won the so called swing states ohio and West Virginia for example. I believe that John McCain will now win the Presidential election due in November experience counts this 71 year old veteran is more than a match for 46yo one generation american.
Various people are trying to run the line of ‘what has Obama ever done’.
Beating the Clintons in a nationwide campaign should count for something by itself, in my opinion.
Possum (@ 110 – I’m running a bit late),
What do you think about Gen. Wesley Clark for VP then? (OK, so flubbed his own run for POTUS 4 years ago – did manage to win one of the Carolinas (I think?) in the primaries) but he meets all the military service background the Dems need and then some…
Ian did you compromise the boat?
Many people on campus had their suspicions given you were a mature age student.
MB
without putting words in Possums mouth, i think it’s safe to say Wes Clark is his preference for VP.
he stated that previously. not sure if that’s changed lately
Interesting to note that Michelle Obama does not dress conservatively like other female politicians. See the differnce between Michelle’s and Hillaries outfits. Chelsea was also dressed conservatively. Is this the sign of some of the changes to come? No more grovelling to pick up religious votes.
Possum at 119: I’m sure that “Rational Hillary” would agree with the case you put for having her inside the tent and loaded up. Looks great on paper. She could help spread McCain all over the court before November. But is she worth the risk?
Her presence on the Dem ticket would sully Obi’s primary theme of “Change” because of her deep connectedness to Beltway interests. However, could HRC be trusted to have all her snakes securely back in the box after some of her outrageous performances over the last 6 months as the orb slipped from her grasp? Lousy leadership really considering all her initial campaign assets. But you can’t buy character.
Reckon her risks far outwiegh her assets in the surge to November.
Be better for Obi to win his way by 20 or 30 ECVs, than to punt all on a “sure thing” (a potentilally monster ECV margin with Brutusina as Vice), than have the “sure thing”, oodles of potential though highly strung, break a leg in the home straight and have to be “destroyed” by deeply concerned MSM officials.
ESJ,
*laugh* Your paranoia is showing.
We came, we saw, we got the media attention which was the point of the exercise.
Finally, mature agent student ? Callow youth was more like it.
Paul Nash,
Your argument shows that, like Hilary Clinton, you can’t count, so you’re on for $20. ESJ can hold the money – I’ll get my Kopassus upline to pass him the cash. Damn. Outed myself.
Harry at 128
I think Obama can win without Clinton, but to win big would require a McCain meltdown (which could well be on the books, he’s not across any brief when push comes to shove, and he doesnt have a good way to hide it – which is what separates McCain from good candidates: They can hide the fact that they arent really across what they’re talking about).
But politics is also an uncertain business, McCain might not meltdown – what if he campaigned well? What if something came out about him that resonated badly in a few key States?
With Clinton, if she could be attached to Universal Healthcare, I dont think the power of Obamas change spiel would be reduced (but so saying, that change spiel alone wont win him the election, the US electorate is a complicated messy place like every electorate).
Her benefit is that she could bring more States to the table that would be in play – meaning that she could lead to a larger Dem victory on the upside, and bring enough states to the table to create a buffer on the downside – especially Florida. That would not only protect Obama, but increase the reach of any Dem victory.
We’ve got to remember that there’s two things Clinton does well – her attacks resonate with low-median income blue collar workers and hispanics, and she brings women over 50 into the voting tent in volumes. What an asset to deploy on the ground in key States.
The sacrifice? – a few of Obamas supporters will be pissed, but they’d still vote for him anyway.This is the pointy end of politics here – the game is about electoral college votes, like it was all about delegates in the primaries. Everything else other than those metrics is piss and wind.
Popular Vote? – irrelevent
Carried more States? – meaningless
Getting as many electoral college votes as is possible? – Everything!
That might sound a bit callous and crass and not with the general vibe of Obama, but this is politics we’re dealing with here – Obama is a politician like any other, he just does PR better. Sure he might have policies that the US could do with a dose of, sure he might be great for America and the world, and sure Washington needs a broom taken to it. But unless he actually becomes President, carries Congress and the Senate, and does it by large margins to give him a buffer for policy action – all the good things that everyone thinks about Obama probably wont amount to much more than surface value (which in itself is important – the first black guy being President will change the country in itself). But Obama can do a lot more, but he needs to win big.
Because what he is proposing will shake up vested interests, and the only way to clobber vested interests is with a powerful mandade and enough soldiers in the Houses.
I’m not a Clinton fan and never have been, and she’s done her fair share of deliberately damaging Obamas candidacy as a way of trying to gain Superdelegates when she knew that she’d probably lost, but I think that she could still bring a hell of a lot to the table at the pointy end.
And it’s the pointy end that delivers.
133 HarryH An ex General for VP. That would be a huge backward step. It would also signal change is dead.
MB at 131 – I reckon Clarke would be the best choice for Obama if he goes route of using the Veep to bolster his national security credentials (unless there’s another 4 star white male General that knows Democrat politics floating around somewhere).
But there’s more than one way to skin a cat.
Pancho #125 & enemy marsupial #124
May I ask for blogers patience , as we all know Kyoto is important to us all
Pancho: “yawn. Once again amigos:Reduce Carbon Emissions 80 Percent by 2050 etc”
In my #121 to any objective viewer of this site I made 3 points none of which Pancho addressed :
1/ I said Obama will NOT say ‘he will “ratify” Kyoto’ (I’ll define “ratify” later) Pancho did not rebute my assertion at all
2/ I said Obama will create a COMPETING to Kyoto organization , Global Energy Forum (‘GEF’) of 13 countries. Obama is saying he’ll create ‘GEF’ INSTEAD of Obama “ratifying” Kyoto. (Obama is not setting up “GEF” AND concurrently
“ratifying “Kyoto’). Pancho did not rebute my assertion at all
3/ I said Obama supporters here for 3 months have avoided acknowledging that Obama will not “ratify” Kyoto and instead use generalised unspecific Obama ‘spin’ words (see Panho’s #121 Obama words) to avoid acknowlegding this point and therefore Obama supporters were/are avoiding justifying why the hell Obama won’t do what the other 199 countries out of 200 have done and that is to “ratify” Kyoto. ‘Kyoto’ signifys not just symbolic political committment a Country is locked into but imortantly also committment to Kyoto protocols & climate targets , which is why Howard would not “ratify” Kyoto. Pancho , you’ve done it again , ie avoided the central Kyoto points and avoided having to justify why Obama will not
As to “ratify’ , lets be very clear. Firstly , Obama will NOT say “I unconditionally support the ratification of Kyoto”. Marsupial he will not say that nor has he ever said that. Secondly , Obama will NOT say ” I not only unconditionally support the Kyoto ratification but I will use all my POTUS influence (considerable) to get the Senate to ratify Kyoto”. Why cann’t Obqama supporters say they support Obama for POTUS , but on this issue he is dead wrong ! (Kyoto , Obama is playing with words to avoid saying he doesn’t support Kyoto’s “ratification”)
Why on earth would you choose an army man if you want change? You’re locking yourself into the establishment. Therefore no change.
Sorry – part of 137 should read re:McCain
“But politics is also an uncertain business, McCain might not meltdown – what if he campaigned well? What if something came out about Obama that resonated badly in a few key States?”
It works much better that way
People here keep saying Hillary would lock us into the past. For goodness sake what does a General do?
Possom,
On the down side, VP is a less influential position than Senator from New York.
Look, the only region Obama is losing is Appalachia, because die-hard mountain rednecks wont vote for a black man. Thats Tennessee, West Virginia and Kentucky.
On the other hand, he’s winning Wisconsin, Iowa, Virginia and Colorado.
Finally, a lot of Americans hate the Clintons. The sad, battered, gutshot defeated remnants of the Republican party know how to attack the Clintons.
However, given the pathetic showing of the Republican Party and their utter inability to craft an anti-Obama message in their shocking, spineless, gutless loss in the Missisippi-1 special election, you’d have to say they know nothing about running against Obama.
Ron, If I were Obama I wouldnt say ” I not only unconditionally support the Kyoto ratification but I will use all my POTUS influence (considerable) to get the Senate to ratify Kyoto” either.
And I think the protocol is important (even if not very effective for reducing emissions – but that’s another argument for another time)
Possom,
If anything that bad existed, then the Clinton would have used it against Obama.
He fessed up to youthful cocaine use. His pastor wandered well outside the bounds of public discourse. For crying out loud he voted *against* the War.
He wasnt annointed after winning Iowa and New Hampshire – the long campaign put him through the mill, and he has shown strength throughout the country.
At the end of the day, thats the great service Hilary Clinton did to the Democratic Party – she forced Obama to win the thing, and in doing so, turned himself into a winner.
144 Ian Whitchurch I’ve just checked the maps on CQ politics. West Virginia has more blue areas and Virginia has more red areas. You can click to enlarge.
http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=28
Poss
I agree with nearly all of that and am not unaware of what politics and EVERY politician is all about.
but
Do you honestly think Obama and Dean, after making the biggest, hardest break of all, beating the Clintons and the DLC, will give them the kiss of life by shovelling her and entourage into the VP spot.
This is now Obama/Dean, make no mistake.
Hillary will cop Health, because that’s all she will be offered.
And the Democrats will win the election. “Hillarys women” are not going to vote for Republican and a stacked Supreme Court. “Hillarys battlers” are going to vote their pocket and vote Democrat. “Hillarys racists” are gonna vote MCCain like they are going to anyway.
And Obama’s flood of new voters , and a “on the nose” Repug Party,will deliver a comfortable win in the EC to the Dems.
And then Obama can govern without Billary and their ego’s breathing down his neck.
Besides, i think Barry values his marriage…so he knows what not to do lol.
Chris B,
I hate to break this to you, but there’s a fair number of US voters who will vote Democratic, but not if they run a black candidate.
Fortunatly, GWB has done such a great job trashing the Republican brand that it simply wont matter.
ChrisB
just to make it clear. Clark is not my preference for VP or who i think would be the best pick. I was just relaying Possums opinion to MB, who had enquired.