Newspoll: 57-43

Lateline reports tomorrow’s Newspoll shows no change on the previous fortnight. Brendan Nelson’s rating as preferred prime minister is back into double figures, at 12 per cent, while Kevin Rudd is down from 72 per cent to 70 per cent (hat tip to B.S. Fairman). More to follow.

UPDATE: The Australian reports Kevin Rudd’s satisfaction rating is down 5 per cent to 63 per cent, with dissatisfaction up 6 per cent to 23 per cent. Forty-nine per cent of respondents thought the budget was good for the economy, against 23 per cent bad.

UPDATE 2: Graphic here. It helpfully includes budget reaction figures going back 16 years, which if nothing else reminds us what an extraordinary political event was John Dawkins’ final budget in 1993 (wherein the Keating government reneged on its “L-A-W – law” tax cuts).

Other news:

• A poll by Galaxy Research had only 23 per cent of voters saying the budget would leave them better off against 33 per cent worse off, but interestingly showed Wayne Swan was considered the better economic manager by 36 per cent against 25 per cent for Malcolm Turnbull.

• A poll by Essential Research squares the circle between the Newspoll and Galaxy budget results, The Age reporting that “most people did not think the poll (sic) would be good for them personally, but they thought it would be good for Australia’s long-term future”.

Hat tip to Democratic Audit Update for everything below:

• “The case of the disputed election in the Division of McEwen is set down for hearing in the Federal Court of Australia, Melbourne, in courtroom 8D on 21 and 22 May at 10.15 am.” UPDATE: A detailed report on the disputed ballots from The Age.

• Disclosures of donations from last year’s election, such as they are, are available for viewing here.

• In other donation news, 800 donors from the 2006 New South Wales election, including “many of Australia’s biggest companies”, are to be prosecuted for breach of disclosure laws. An inquiry into donation and disclosure by the Electoral Matters Committee of the Parliament of Victoria is receiving submissions until June 27.

The Australian reports: “Talks have again broken down between the Bligh Government and the Queensland Opposition over a referendum on fixed four-year terms.”

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

80 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43”

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  1. It is unreal that these Libs are now supporting such bad policy. It’s like the Libs are baiting Labor and hoping they will pick it up. The Libs have their heads buried firmly in the sand – they really don’t understand Kevin Rudd at all.

  2. Yeah and terrific! I have spent my evening on the phone. Another great experience. Family politics. Birthdays. Anniversarys of deaths. They happen, unfortunately, to coincide. Who said what to whom. About whatever the topic. No one, but no one mentioned Federal politics. Or Opinion Polls.

    Who, anyway, would give a rats about the stupid behaviour of the Liberal Party.

    As if the 5 Cents will matter, in two and a half years time. Though the five cents is important, if it is so that it repeals the Keating impost, for whatever the original purpose, on top of the existing taxes for petrol. Maybe it was roads. Well, that worked. Not.

  3. Let me guess: Shanahan tomorrow will be calling this the start of the great Liberal Party recovery and momentum for a win in 2010 LOL

  4. The media are so pathetic, is it not time the government set up its own newspaper to compete with these dills. How about using union money?

  5. I think that a reading of the Galaxy combined with this Newspoll is suggesting that people still haven’t got their heads around a response to the budget yet and are reserving their decision at this stage. It is still there for the Government to sell or the opposition to steal.

  6. Well some wonderful viewing for Rudd and Swan on Lateline – the lead story is the split between Nelson and Turnbull on the fuel tax cut. The fact of the email confirming Turbull said the fuel tax cut was bad policy is confirmed. Minchin, Bishop and Turnbull all insist that there is no disunity and they are united behind Nelson. “Labor has factions too you know…” Too bad for Nelson that none of them publicly disputed the budget within a week of it being handed down. Unlike Nelson’s reply speech.

    Further details about the News poll – 49% of those polled rate the budget as good; 36% as bad. Given that this is the tough budget and those closer to the next election will be more polular, this is as good as its going to get for the coalition. Lets hope for a new McEwen election being ordered at these 57:43 figures. I must say, its looking like an awefully long honeymoon period for Rudd. I wonder if it will last into his second term?

  7. If the Libs had any brains they could have talked about the pensioners and solar rebates and Rudds backflip- the pensioners okay fair enough but the solar backflip and the policy is just plain stupid, yep will not means test the housing affordabilty measures but the solar rebates is absolutely brain dead policy and listening to Rudd on the 7.30 report sums up the lack of real visionary pollies we have at present- Rudd is all spin and puff and that is all.

  8. Anyone catch Alexander on Lateline tonight? (Sounds like a disease…”I’m sorry, I can’t come in to work today, I’ve got a dose of Alexander.”)

    I assume he was only there because he’s expendable.

  9. 13 steve – I don’t think so Steve. If they were unmoved while the budget was the red hot topic of the week they sure as heck will not be moved now that it is yesterday’s chips wrapper.

  10. Lord Downer on Lateline now is so desperate that he’s resorting to honesty. He says that he’s no stranger to leadership tensions from his own time at the top, and the coalition must show discipline. I can’t rmember for a long time when I found Downer so believeable.

  11. 15 marky marky – a bit of an over reaction marky. Surely there is something Rudd has done right in your eyes. Oh, that’s right as a lefty you’d rather see the Libs in power, I forgot.

  12. Hahhahahaha

    Tony Jones: “Do you think a cut to the fuel excise will be [Liberal] policy at the next election?”

    Dolly: “Hmmmm it might do… but there’s 2 years to go.”

    Comments like that don’t exactly leave the viewer with much confidence in Her Majesty’s opposition.

  13. Dolly:

    We have the Westminster system Tony! Which is why I am now defending a policy that I completely disagree with.

    See! This is our system at work!

  14. Disgrace, Kevin PM. A mere 57% TPP. Slipping, clearly.

    Marky, marky, the retired government has its still own outlet. The paper itself has failed to keep up. If that media would get into the real world, they may report some facts. That, after all, is their responsibility.

    And as for Alexander, on Lateline, going on about expectations.

    What of the former Government, we had no expectations. And they were fulfilled.

    And is it not wonderful, that nothing happened, on any front. How amazing that Alexander knows it all. How amazing it is that Australia would be still becalmed. No movement. No nothing. God help us if the Liberals were to have been returned.

  15. Can someone direct me to the quote where Rudd is saying he would lower petrol and food prices before the last election. Maybe you can marky.

  16. Gary are you really sure you are not a paid up member or a paid consultant because i am still waiting for some objective comments. You must be paid per postive blog.

    The medicare stuff is brave and brillant policy and all the means testing regarding baby bonus and fringe benefits handouts and crude oil is all good policy.
    But the rich make up for it with handsome tax cuts and a child care rebate. This budget could have been much better simple.
    We need a good opposition in this country to make Labor put in place policies which actually mean something, but of course you would rather Labor in for one ever to keep you in a job Gary.

  17. Gary 24

    No, Rudd promised nothing of the sort. Here is a quote from Rudd in the news section of the “Drive” website dated 30 November 2007:

    “As I said before the election, I cannot guarantee a petrol price or a grocery price or a house price,” he said.

    “What I can say is that we can through competition policy have a petrol price commissioner.


    So they promised a price commissioner, and delivered that promise. The rest is reinventing history.

  18. 25 marky – I’m not the one who pretends to be a member of the Labor Party and criticises everything it does. I’ve never been a member of any party. I’ve voted Liberal before. Any other brilliant comments in regard to my credentials. Now let’s talk about your loyalty.

  19. There is really a no win event for the LNP. An unpopular or criticised budget, especially criticism over things like the medical insurance rebates, means testing and alcopop tax actually end up strengthening Rudd’s core position. It gives the appearance of having done something unpopular for the benefit of the country.
    A few little knicks and scars just adds to the character where he really needs it.

    Remember people stuck with Howard for a long time even though they disliked much of what he did – they saw it as strength, stability and character.

    AND especially true when you contrast it against someone like Nelson or Turnbull who are struggling for some coherence.

    Nelson and the LNP will crawl back some points for just turning up to the battle, but that is it while some ‘soft’ Labor voters might see reason to stay where they are.

  20. 27 Socrates – spot on. Whenever the Libs come out with this rot they should be asked to quote Rudd saying he will lower prices. No quote exists of course.

  21. Marky, you’re good for a stir. I actually agree with some of your criticisms but you do go overboard at times IMHO.

  22. Maybe. But you talk about my loyalty and my credentials, yes maybe i carp on but at least i have some opinions. What are yours. Or do you read everything from the Labor website.
    So all Labor members must crawl and suck and say nothing and be their to just hand out leaflets and help people get reelected.. Loyal servants.
    What next.

  23. Just one thing you said earlier. As a member of the Labor Party are you saying there are times you want to see Labor in opposition?

  24. In fact I don’t believe the LNP will make any real ground on Rudd until they can put up a respected face. Any stuff-ups Rudd makes wont hurt him much at all without a credible Opposition to compare him against.

    I can’t see anyone apart from Costello who would fit the bill. Maybe disliked, but respected and listened to by many. However I wonder if Costello actually has the bottle to be the front man. Oh woe is the LNP, Turnbull is the best they have got.

  25. MArky, why is the Solar policy a bad one. I read that as people who get the rebate have to spend about $80,000 to get it (I can’t remember the exact figure), so it’s another form of middle-class welfare. Your thoughts? Don’t you think the money would be better spent somewhere else than on the already rich?

  26. Yes, especially in New South Wales at present, a government go backwards and in Tasmania , as that government is run by Gunns Limited.
    At times they become complacent, to right wing and arrogant and forget what they are elected for or what Labor stands for.
    Nevertheless i would much prefer Labor in Power as they have progressive policies. But as a leftie i get on here and bag bad policy which cause greater problems and which is a waste of taxpayers money.

  27. Gary No… Green yes but stop moving onto other subjects what are your opinions Gary do you have any which differ to Labors policies or have you been traumatised by my stirring of your subjective blogs.

  28. “a waste of taxpayers money.” The definition of supplying the rich with government money I would have thought. As a lefty surely that would be a basic tenet of your beliefs.

  29. Marky

    I should say that I agree with your complaints on means testing the solar panel rebate in the budget, which was both bad politics and bad policy. Overall the budget was good and correct to make the cuts it did, but yes the solar rebate was a mistake. At that level nobody who can afford the panels can afford the rebate, so it is killing the industry. Combined with the failure to remove the blatant rorts that exist for company car tax deductions and no change to the tax treatment of 4WDs, it is a far from greenhouse friendly budget. Labor had better put some of that infrastructure fund into public transport etc or there will be a lot of votes lost.

    BTW Lindsay Tanner is on the post Lateline Business show now and going very well. Hes making sense and sounds completly across his material.

  30. Kina

    I strongly agree. If there is one thing this budget session has proven, it is that Swan and Tanner have established a strong superiority over their Shadow Ministry opposites. I just realised that I couldn’t even remember who is the Shadow Finance Minister and had to check that it was Peter Dutton. That is telling IMO.

  31. Absolutely stunned marky. The difference between you and me is that I can disagree with a government policy without making sweeping generalisations about their overall competence or motives. I fail to see how putting in the opposition helps you to achieve your overall ideals. Eg “I don’t like privatiation. Labor wants to privatise one utility therefore they should be thrown out and replaced by a party that has privatisation as its core belief.” Just doesn’t make sense to me. Work within the party to change their mind.

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