Newspoll: 58-42 to Labor in Victoria

Newspoll yesterday released its bi-monthly survey of Victorian state voting intention, in which a 1 per cent primary vote shift from the Coalition (down to 36 per cent) to Labor (up to 44 per cent) somehow translated into a two-party swing from 56-44 to 58-42. Both leaders have gone backwards on personal approval: John Brumby’s satisfaction rating is down 1 per cent to 46 per cent and his dissatisfaction is up 3 per cent to 35 per cent, while Ted Baillieu’s satisfaction rating is down 3 per cent to 35 per cent and his dissatisfaction is steady on 36 per cent. Brumby’s lead as preferred premier has widened from 48-25 to 49-23.

Hat tip to Stringa in comments.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

63 comments on “Newspoll: 58-42 to Labor in Victoria”

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  1. In summary water has to cost more so farmer spend more using it wisely and stop using it in areas where the losses are too great. Governments need to be able to buy overallocation back without causing a riot. Infrastructure has to be fixed. Oh and it would be nice if someone brought Cubby station and closed it down.

    I believe all but the last is happening. The cost of water is going up, water rights have become a trade-able commodity so the government can buy them back and they can now move about the system. A fixed amount has been allocated for repurchase by the federal government and I have no doubt the volume that can be purchased will increase with good rains. What started this debate was people stacking it on the Brubey government for putting money into upgrading the infrastructure. It is happening.

    All of this is in the future; the only thing that will fix the current disaster is rain, and unfortunately freds picture is the situation, Coorong, Lakes Alexandrina and Albert are going to dry up this year, at the moment they are pumping water from one to the other to stop the things that happens when lakes haven’t been dry in 8000 years. If there is no rain this year it is over.

    They only thing that hasn’t changed is the whingers whinging, now its too much money is being spent on infrastructure and it won’t help and we will all suffer because of increased debt. God help us.

    On cubby station, in reality for water to get from Queensland to the Murray it’s got to get through Burke another irrigation area that is in deep trouble with empty dams. Cobby station fits the criteria, farm as close as possible to the source and it has the right weather to farm a lot more than just cotton. If anyone is interested you can go and have a look with google maps, follow the darling up from Burke.

  2. If your looking for cubby station it’s near Dirranbamdi, there are so many big dams and so much irrigation in the area, up from Burke isn’t enough info.

  3. Wheat prices are so high at the moment that many cotton growers (including the somewhat infamous Cubbie station) have apparently switched to wheat this season :
    http://business.theage.com.au/sowing-not-sewing/20080509-2coh.html

    Back to politics, it appears that a couple of Victorian liberal party staffers are in a spot of bother after dissing their (state) party and leader on a blog. I was disappointed to read that the blog wasn’t the Pollbludger 🙂
    http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/vic-libs-sack-staff-over-blog/2008/05/10/1210131323451.html

    cheers, Mark.

  4. That’s what happens when you employ creeps. If that is the talent you have to hire, than you are stuffed.

  5. I’m a little surprised by the size of Brumby’s lead, what may explain it is he is showing some strong leadership.

    The only seat at risk from the North-South pipeline is the seat of Seymour, the pipe will run near towns like Yea which normally goes 2-1 in favor of the Liberals.

    There is one issue that may hurt the Government and that is the new law restricting entry to pubs and clubs after 2am, this policy will only apply to inner city venues.

    This policy may cost the Government Prahran and could see a big increase in the Green vote in the seats of Albert Park, Richmond, Melbourne and Brunswick.

    It’s been over a week and I’m yet to hear anything about this from the Liberals and this explains why they are struggling.

    Interesting that by 2012 the state will have a debt of $22 Billion up from the current $6 Billion.

    Someone earlier suggested that the rich don’t use Public Transport, I disagree with this comment!

    At this early stage I would expect Brumby to win the next Election but with a reduced majority

  10. If Sheezel wants to roll Baillieu so badly, perhaps he should seek out some expert tutelage from Alex Hawke and David Clarke.

    Being north of the Murray, I don’t know Baillieu well, but “Red Ted” seems non-threatening and half-decent from this Labor voter’s viewpoint: just as John Brogden seemed non-threatening and half-decent. It appears that Baillieu faces the same plight as poor old Broggers.

    Right-wing factional funny business is killing the Liberal brand.

  11. David

    “They must be making this stuff up, I refuse to believe it’s for real!”

    Yeah, it is quite funny. What I saw was commentators accusing Baillieu of being a labor plant and others accusing the the staffers of being labor plants with demands for enquiries into the undemining of the liberal party by labor plants.

  13. The Young Liberals in Victoria have attempted to follow in the footsteps of David Clarke’s troopers in NSW. The problem is they’re not as bright. One of two clowns, John Osborn is just a goon and I am stunned that the Liberals had to go that low.

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