Newspoll: 61-39

The latest Newspoll shows an increase in Labor’s federal two-party lead to 61-39 from 59-41 a fortnight ago. Kevin Rudd’s lead over Brendan Nelson as preferred prime minister has narrowed marginally from 73-9 to 71-10. No word yet on the Liberal leadership preference questions which Newspoll was apparently asking respondents over the weekend (see the update on the previous Morgan post).

UPDATE: Graphic now available. The favoured Liberal leader is Malcolm Turnbull (25 per cent) ahead of Peter Costello (23 per cent), Brendan Nelson (15 per cent), Julie Bishop (13 per cent) and Tony Abbott (6 per cent). Support for the three proposed leadership teams (Nelson/Bishop, Turnbull/Robb, Costello/Turnbull) divided about evenly, while Turnbull leads Wayne Swan as “preferred Treasurer” 35 per cent to 29 per cent. In spite of everything, Brendan Nelson’s satisfaction rating is a presentable 38 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

484 comments on “Newspoll: 61-39”

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  1. Brendan Nelson will not be leader for much longer.
    With the 2PP at 61-39 to the ALP and the preferred PM ratings at 71 -10 for PM Rudd, who in the opposition will be the first to jump ship for someone else other than Nelson?

  2. B.S.Fairman, From previous thread, Eddixender just doesn’t like the like the sorts who might question why he’s got a clue about anything, really.

  3. I did like the description of Brendon Nelson on Insiders that he was the “rebound boyfriend” for the liberal party and they will dump him and find someone they are happy with for the long term.

    The only dark cloud for the the ALP is that have let loose to many genies in the 2020 conference and will be exposed as elite lefties in the year to come. Well, I guess, we’ll see – personally I like the idea of ideas.

    If I was Brendon I wouldn’t be counting on Kevin 24/7 tripping up too soon.

  4. Chris B. It is turning into the Cheese Shop. I want Turnball played by Cleese. Who get’s to be the Norwegian Blue?

  5. sigh! “people skills” Abbott would be the perfect next sacrifice to be sent to slaughter, let Sir Bullalot sweat a bit longer lol.

  6. The next leader of the Liberals will be David Flint: they’ll give him Bronwyn Bishop’s seat on Sydney’s Northern Beaches LOL
    You think I’m joking? Anything is possible with this lot.

  7. Wonder if the Rudd will ramp up the republican debate just to cause confusion with the progression of Nelson succession plots.

  8. So Nelson has “clawed — back” from 9 to 10%. Strange words for a 1 % increase even if in regular use. Must be really rusted on right wingers.

    If Turnball became Leader it may help the ALP in the long run. He will stumble once the pressure really goes on and then who will be Leader? Libs will be in even more despair and will carp even louder and more often. All pretense will be gone and they will be without hope.

    They are sooo last century!

  9. I was slightly optimistic in my earlier prediction on the previous thread.

    But still within the MOE on the 2PP and didn’t predict nelson gaining 1 point (although still within the MOE).

    It just may be that most of the punters polled had been affected a little by all the negative spin surrounding the 2020 summit and of course this would have occurred prior to the interim report becoming public.

    The veritable flood of negativity emanating from the News Ltd outlets and ABC since Sunday afternoon would most probably in response to the poll results, hoping to capitalise on a bounce ^ for Nelson and better figures on the 2PP than Morgan.

    On the whole though, it’s not looking too promising for Nelson’s leadership credentials or the Liberal Party as a viable alternative at present.

  10. Kina @ 14

    I’m sure you’re right, the republican issue will cause havoc among the Liberals. They are so far behind on the issues it is almost painful to watch.

  11. I always bypass any piece I see written by the Fecal Midget, it is usually spiteful rubbish.

    How long is this ‘honeymoon’ going to last? And what in God’s name will make make the LNP into a real talented Opposition? What happens if Turnbull, Costello and others fail to make any indentation? Will they split to reform if nothing changes?

  12. [Wonder if the Rudd will ramp up the republican debate just to cause confusion with the progression of Nelson succession plots.]

    Kina, the Libs are down and Rudd has got his boot firmly planted on the neck of the carcass.

    He, although coming across as a likeable person with firm and noble aspirations for the future of this country, is also a ruthless political operator.

    I can’t see him letting up on them and be willing to give them any oxygen between now and the next election. Rudd learned a lot from observing Howard in operation and you can be sure that he will take every opportunity to wedge the Libs that he can, and keep them continually on the back foot struggling for relevance

    It may pay to get used to seeing polling figures similar to these for a long time yet. Glen & Co are in for a miserable 30 months till the next election. There will be no little rays of sunshine creeping over the horizon for a considerable period.

  13. Kina, I think it is way too early to expect the Libs to show up on the respectability radar. They really blew it when in office. They got their policies wrong as well as their leadership. They effectively abandoned their duties a long time before the lost office. That is clear to everyone now.

    The country has been wanting change for a long time and now it’s being delivered. As long as this continues, I think the government will remain ascendant. Why should ths change?

  14. On tonight’s news, how out of date did Dolly look? Stuttering and stammering in a dark dingy room that looked like it was last decorated in the 50s with a picture of the queen in her prime hanging above him telling his audience of ancient monarchists (Dolly was the youngest one there) that he would fight to keep the monarchy safe from that evil Mr Rudd.
    To think one time hearing these clowns spruke this sort of crap would have made me angry now I just burst out laughing.
    How must Allbull be feeling LOL

  15. Dreadful polling figures for the coalition. Disgraceful actually. Nelson will be politically euthanised a couple of weeks after the budget, meaning a 6 month stint as opposition leader.

    The template is set. Turnbull will be given 6 months. If he is a dud who then? Bishop? Abbott? Hockey? No, no and no. Lightweights the lot of them. They’d be eaten alive by a rampant government addicted to the taste of blood like Dracula in a Red Cross boutique.

    Costello still hasn’t resigned. Sitting there, waiting, silent, brooding. He’d relish the prospect of the party who spurned him possibly begging him to stand as leader. Trouble is he would also be mauled and would almost certainly lose the next election.

    I still reckon he’d accept it though. As Skyhooks once sung, ego is a dirty word.

  16. Nelson, Abbot, Downer, Costello, Pyne Turnbull, Minchin…the Liberals now have enough castrati on their benches to rival the Vienna Boys choir in shrillness.

  17. Maybe Shannahan is taking a break from being the “front man” for bad polling results.

    Samantha Maiden is heading the online Political News.

    [BRENDAN Nelson has clawed his way back into double digits as the nation’s preferred prime minister but support for the Coalition has again fallen.
    The latest Newspoll, published exclusively in The Australian tomorrow, reveals that after weeks of leadership speculation – and amid reports Liberal powerbroker Tony Abbott had shifted allegiances from Dr Nelson – the Opposition Leader’s rating as preferred prime minister has increased by one point to 10 per cent.

    Kevin Rudd, who returned from his 21-day world tour to host last weekend’s 2020 Summit in Canberra, continues to enjoy near-record support despite a slight fall in his rating as preferred prime minister from 73 per cent to 71 per cent.],25197,23578004-601,00.html

  18. Has anyone been checking the Bookies odds lately at all?

    It would be interesting to see what the latest prices are on the Lib Leadership question and the Coalitions chances at the next election.

    I would think that Labor would have to be at almost unbackable odds now and the LNP must be blowing right out.

  19. Scorpio we’ve been getting used to these polling figures since January last year i think i can manage until 2010.

    Although i prefer Nelson over Turnbull the perception is that Nelson is a dud and the media won’t recast his label anytime soon.

    So bearing this in mind, perhaps the Liberals are having their Crean before their Beazley.

    I wouldn’t say the Liberals are bereft of talent i mean if you go past Rudd you have an unpopular Gillard and who else nobody really so to say that the Liberals would be done without Nelson or Turnbull is a silly proposition.

    Realistically though both sides are bereft of ‘ready made’ leadership talent when casting aside the two top challengers of both sides.

  20. Scorpio

    You are right about the 39% but consider that against Rudd’s 71% rating as preferred PM. That means that roughly 10% of the electorate, or one coalition voter in four, wants a coalition government but prefers Rudd to Nelson as PM!

    The by elections will be quite funny if these figures keep up. I can just imagine how any decision to have another contest in McEwen will be greeted in the Liberal bunker. One less rathole to hide in.

  21. Glen, sorry mate, but I have to disagree with you on both the “talent” issue within the Labor Party and the Leadership statement.

    There are a number of potential replacements for Rudd if he got hit by a bus tomorrow and they have a fairly good public persona.

    Unfortunately on your side, the highest polling candidate is Costello and he has already passed up the poisoned chalice.

    I doubt very much that it would be a very attractive prize for him at the moment with polling figures like these.

  22. And just think, back in November 2006 John Howard was supremely arrogant, fully confident of winning another election and imaging the implementation his personal agendas and, planning a further weakening of the ALP. He thought he controlled everybody and everything and none dared oppose him for fear of retribution.

    We then witnessed someone walk up to this national bully and give him a fair slap across the face. From that moment on it never got better for the stunned Howard. Rudd tormented him in a thousand ways, Downer’s extreme jealousy and spite leaked out at every interview and, with the Howard faced being publicly trashed, the others had nowhere to hide, their incompetence on show.

    They walked the Green Mile struggling all the way.

    And now Rudd torments their souls in Hell as well. There is certain justice in this if we recall the Howard years.

  23. “There are a number of potential replacements for Rudd if he got hit by a bus tomorrow and they have a fairly good public persona.”

    Such as???
    Gillard is unpopular but is Deputy PM, nevertheless who else is there?

    It’s one thing to criticise us for a lack of ‘ready to go’ leadership talent but when the ALP is in the same position as us talent wise then it is a spurious thing to use it to attack the Liberal Party.

    Kina the Howard years are some of the best years this country has had and yet you describe them as hell! I suppose you will thank Mr John Howard for saving the Australian economy so Rudd can spend it all on his christian socialist agenda!

  24. Socrates Says: @ 31,

    [You are right about the 39% but consider that against Rudd’s 71% rating as preferred PM. That means that roughly 10% of the electorate, or one coalition voter in four, wants a coalition government but prefers Rudd to Nelson as PM!]

    This would have to be more than a major concern within the Liberal bunker. Talk about wailing and the gnashing of teeth.

    This reminds me a bit of the period just prior to the election campaign when Howard’s PPM figure was higher than the Liberal Primary vote figure. The trouble then though, was the stupid gitts thought that this meant that they should stick with Howard at the helm and look where that got them.

    This time, there is no light at the end of the tunnel. Not even a faint glow. I really don’t know what must be going on inside their heads at present but I don’t think it would be a very pleasant experience. Look at how it has effected Glen lately.

    And where are the rest of the usual Lib posters. They have gone to ground and left poor old Glen to carry the can on their behalf. Where’s Tabitha when you need her?

  25. The numbers in this poll are as new as any of the ideas that come out of 2020 summit!!

    I agree with Glen the ALP has very little talent

    Rudd, Gillard, Tanner, Combet, Shorton, Wong, Maxine

    Sadly the Liberals are in as bad if not worst shape.

  26. From the Oz

    “Coalition down, Nelson up: Newspoll

    BRENDAN Nelson has clawed his way back into double digits as the nation’s preferred PM but support for the Coalition has again fallen. ”

    Clawed back to 10% ?!?!?!

    oh the hilarity

  27. 36
    Just Me – ask any jo blow they don’t like Gillard, even Labor supporters don’t like her or want her as leader!

    That is not real evidence, Glen, and you know it.

    The onus is firmly on you to provide some serious evidence of your claim about Gillard’s lack of popularity, such as a reputable poll. You can’t just assert it to be true, much as you might want it to be.

  28. FS @ 26 “the Liberals now have enough castrati on their benches to rival the Vienna Boys choir in shrillness”

    Oh jeez FS, priceless, ROTFL, and so true.

    Did anyone notice that Bill Heffernan was actively taking part in 2020 and making serious contributions. I must confess to a sneaking admiration for the Heifer, maybe I just like head-kickers but he seems ok to me. Unlike the castrati outlined in Fulvio’s post.

  29. What are your thoughts on the most meaningless poll metric included in this Newspoll?

    My vote goes to “Preferred Treasurer” (yes I know the summary says “Better Treasurer” but it also says “Better PM”). I’m pretty the “Preferred Treasurer” results in the lead-up to the last election had little to no impact on the result of that election.

    That said, 29-35 is not a bad result for Swannie given the relative lack of name recognition.

  30. Turnull/Robb would have to be a dream result for Labor supporters. It would confirm the problem for the Liberal party is that too many Liberals got re-elected at the last election. Has Robb the shadow foreign affairs minister made it out of Australia yet or has he stayed home sharpening knives for the post budget leadership stoush.

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