Bolt from the blue

Conservative pundit Andrew Bolt has shut up shop on his prolific Herald Sun blogging activities with a cryptic “announcement from the seat of Higgins”:

Stephen Mayne has been onto this story for a while, and for once he’s close to the truth (from the linked article, written in 2006: “Maybe Bolt’s main chance will be in Higgins if Costello ultimately decided to spit the dummy and walk”). Given that I’m told he’s planning to write about this again, probably as soon as this morning, I want to say something here first before he does. This is it for the blog, at least for now. I can’t pre-empt the announcement that my local member and friend, Peter Costello, is about to make, but it would clearly be a conflict of interest for me to continue to write about politics here if I’ve privately agreed to become a player.

An April Fools’ Day joke would, of course, be highly out of character.

UPDATE: On the stroke of noon, Bolt reveals himself to be more fond of a jape than I had realised. He is however Still Not Sorry, at least with respect to me (see the third update on his post).

Other news: The chances of a rematch in McEwen have surely been greatly boosted by the disclosure that eight people in the electorate voted twice, although the case does not return to the Federal Court until May. And for those whose interest runs in that direction, Antony Green offers a post on contentious changes to electoral legislation in the ACT, which will make like difficult for independents wishing to run group tickets.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

360 comments on “Bolt from the blue”

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  1. Another noncore Liberal promise and classic piece of pork barreling has been dumped.

    “The federal government has cancelled the contract for Optus and Elders to build a WiMAX broadband network, the companies say.

    Futuris Corporation, which owns Elders, and Singapore Telecommunications, Optus’s parent, both told the Australian Stock Exchange of the cancellation of the contract this morning.

    Futuris and Optus, in an equal partnership called OPEL, were awarded $958 million by the Howard government to construct a broadband network for rural and regional Australia.

    According to the companies’ statements to the stock exchange, the Rudd government says it has cancelled the contract because of an assessment that the implementation plan does not meet prescribed coverage requirements.”

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/govt-cancels-1-billion-broadband-contract/2008/04/02/1206850954658.html

  4. 252
    John of Melbourne

    Any thoughts on why the article concluded with this shot?:

    “The Rudd Government will, of course, fix all this, won’t it?”

  6. David, what I write in my posts is my business, is it not? Or are you suddenly the site administrator?

    The preponderance of sport on ABC radio during otherwise normal weekdays is a disgrace. I readily concede that many people love sport and enjoy ball-by-bloody-ball descriptions. This is a good case for a separate sports network. The ruminations of Pommy commentators on the finer points of Sri Lankan leg side batting theory deserve a network all to themselves, so that the rest of the country can remain informed and entertained with normal programming. If I remember correctly, there was a broadcast of test cricket in the final days before the election, taking out all ABC current affairs coverage of that election for several days. Truly awful performance.

    Don’t try the “some people like sport” pseudo-man-of-the-people bizzo on me, Charles. I understand sport is liked by some, let them have it all to themselves.

  8. This is quite interesting…and you will recognise the narrator/presentor..from that B/S buster show.

    He does make the point that when the Dalai Lamas ruled it was an opulent aristocracy with an oppressed peasantry. The history has only been romanticised after the event, maybe.
    http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=J1O-eLmAA8Y

    Would be nice to know that actual historical truth of the matter without the politics and preconceptions.

    This doesn’t in anyway excuse the methods China uses to ‘crack down’ on whatever it is they ‘crack-down’ on.

  9. Kina…pretty damning stuff I reckon.

    I just don’t understand the intent of the media or am I naive on this?

    China in my opinion will be the next super power and they have long memories.

    I suppose the west has reason to fear this, but fooling the populations will be our downfall!

    And speaking of the ABC…Lateline was going to run a line of questioning to both candidates at the last election in respect to something I have put together, but it got canned due to pressure…not good.

  10. Thanks Bushfire Bill (256). The particular observations I made in prior posts are fair and reasonable. Although I am not ‘a pseudo-man-of-the people’, I am sensitive enough to recognise that you did like my criticism of your earlier posts. For what it is worth, then, I accept that your substantial point about ‘meritorious’ perspectives of politics on the ABC, was well argued.

  12. Bird…they never gave a reason, they just said they were going to go with it and didn’t.

    No skin off my nose though…my point is that the producers do answer to higher powers that constrain their judgement.

  17. I would just like to address a few issues you raised, Bushfire Bill at 256:

    Firstly, no-one likes listening to Peter Roebuck. You’re not alone there.

    Secondly, I would dispute your assertion that “there was a broadcast of test cricket in the final days before the election, taking out all ABC current affairs coverage of that election for several days.”

    It is true that test cricket coverage does take up a large amount of time during the day for the duration of the match. However, as far as I am aware, this coverage only takes place on Local ABC Radio. It has already been discussed that the quality of Local ABC Radio leaves much to be desired in terms of current affairs coverage. The cricket coverage did not interrupt coverage of the election on ABC News Radio or Radio National, as far as I know.

    I guess that’s my main point: ABC cricket coverage interrupts ABC Local Radio, leaving the more meaty stations, News Radio and Radio National, to continue their excellent programmes.
    Oh, and I’m pretty sure we only get international cricket games covered on ABC Local Radio, as opposed to “the hint of a cricket match played somewhere, above the level of local Colts.”

    Regards.

  18. Dangerous @ 248 –
    It seems that Tibet has never been a recognised independent country, and was only really autonomous between 1912 and 1950.

    That is Chinese propaganda. The truth is much different. I won’t bore everyone with a long diabtribe on that is OT here when there are many reputable sources on the web.

    China has no more right to Tibet than Israel has to Palestine, or Indonesia to West Papua. If only someone would find oil in all three!

  20. “Tibet’s GDP in 2001 was 13.9 billion yuan (USD1.8billion). The Central government exempts Tibet from all taxation and provides 90% of Tibet’s government expenditures.”

    “In recent years, due to the increased interest in Tibetan Buddhism, tourism has become an increasingly important sector, and is actively promoted by the authorities. The Tibetan economy is heavily subsidized by the Central government and government cadres receive the second-highest salaries in China.”

    One wonders how they would survive with independence if they lost Chinese funding. They will require assistance from somewhere.

  21. OK and some more issues to consider:

    “In January of 2007, the Chinese government issued a report outlining the discovery of a large mineral deposit under the Tibetan Plateau.[123] The deposit has an estimated value of $128 billion and may double Chinese reserves of zinc, copper, and lead. China sees this as a way to alleviate the country’s dependence on foreign mineral imports necessary for its growing economy. However, critics worry that mining these vast resources will harm Tibet’s fragile ecosystem as well take valuable resources away from the Tibetan people.”

  22. Kina @ 270 – You could ask the same question of Timor Leste. If anything it is even more impoverished, which is not helped by where Howard drew our international border. Not sure what Labor’s position is on that, but I hope it’s something the government will revisit.

  23. To change the subject seems Shamyman is set to help lose Nelson an election too.

    “it says something important about Brendan Nelson that his themes are confected for him by The Australian’s columnists. It also says something important about him that he’s apparently blind to the toxicity of the Howard legacy on industrial relations, believing that a bit of pr can magic it into a pleasing package (again, those who don’t understand history are doomed to repeat it). Has he noticed that the mob he’s apparently outsourced political messaging and strategy to are the same crew who spent most of last year expecting a resounding victory for Howard?”
    http://www.newmatilda.com/polliegraph/?p=266#more-266

  24. Why draw the conversation away, MayoFeral? Quite frankly, I am sick and tired of being bombarded with all these shocking ‘facts’ and so called ‘truths’ from all the self-respected, sticky beaked little cretins like you.

    Take a step back, look both ways, then make your judgement. At least look at the facts and truths from both sides, Tibetans and Chinese.

    Once done that, feel free to bander on about the damned Chinese propaganda, and their shameful actions in claiming their own part of their own country.

    Cheers.

  28. KieraNoilii. I’d suggest that if you have some insights, information to offer or other contribution to make on the subject of Tibet and China, that most here would be interested to listen. Just abusing someone is generally regarded as a waste of space. Frankly, I’d be most interested to hear from anyone with some actual knowledge, as it’s a long time since I formally studied history, particularly Asian history, and I haven’t really kept up, you see, being a bit preoccupied with other things.

  29. Take a step back, look both ways, then make your judgement. At least look at the facts and truths from both sides, Tibetans and Chinese.

    Ostensibly, this is a reasonable request, and one that we are asked to perform all the time when it comes to Western atrocities. The Oz article cited above asks for much the same sort of ‘balance’ from the ABC. It is a similar advocacy of ‘balance’ that sees fringe viewpoints such as creationism, demanding equal time in schools, and that reports the deaths of Palestinians with only a couple of IDF soundbites.

    Clearly, the Chinese regime is brutal, and has plenty of history in this regard. Few people would doubt this. It is the double-standard between China and the ‘humanitarian’ West that is interesting.

  30. Actually, dredging up some stuff lodged in my brain in relation to the fluidity of borders between what is fondly referred to as the East and West, when interaction, mostly trade, was confined to the physical, along the Silk Route on land, that’s where the most volatile borders or boundaries were/are, for example, all the “istans”. As I understand it, and please correct me if I’m barking up the wrong geographic tree, but I think the Tibetan plateau was/is not exactly a through route to anywhere really. Whether local ethnic groupings in that area considered themselves to be part of a wider community, I’ve no idea. The dominant government in China, over the centuries, may well have considered these peoples to be part of their Empire. Whether or not any of this applies today is anyone’s guess.

  31. As far as contributing is corncerned, Mr. Snapper sir, I think I’ve sang my solo. You know where I stand on this issue (dare I be in the right or wrong). For information, you never have to go far. Open your eyes a little wider, breathe in what you already know and fish around for more knowledge – past and present. You’ve got books from the library on Tibet and the Chinese, the web and other people’s opinions to take in your hand. Why, even by scrolling up on this page, can we get valuable information.

    The one snitch? You have to be willing to learn.

    What I’ve learnt is that the Chinese have done a lot more good for Tibet, than bad (not saying the chinese are saint by the way). Schools, transport, all the other what not.

    But don’t take my word for it, for god’s sake. Look it up.

  33. Federal Opposition Leader Brendan Nelson says people in regional areas will suffer because of the Government’s decision to scrap a $1 billion OPEL contract for the creation of a broadband network for regional Australia.

    “The average hardworking Australian taxpayer that’s struggling with petrol and groceries and increasing interest rates on their homes would have have to ask themselves why they have to spend billions of dollars more, when we already had a solution in place,” he said.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/04/02/2206412.htm?section=justin

    Dear Dr. It was a crap solution, cobbled together by Helen Coonan and The Singapore Govt. Shame it would not work, which every communications “expert” was telling you. Hills and rain tend to make wireless – broadband-less.

    Conroy has done the right thing and saved “The average hardworking Australian taxpayer that’s struggling with petrol and groceries and increasing interest rates” a billion bucks that would have been pissed up against the wall.

  34. The following is a precis of a few sources I have used to read up on Tibet (no, not just Wikipedia), plus a few random thoughts of my own on Tibet:

    Tibet seems to have been always mixed up in the Western mind with Shangri La, the myth of an Earthly paradise, even though “Shangri La” is a concoction by a novelist, James Hilton who wrote Lost Horizon in 1933. The idea of a “lost community” in a lost Himalayan valley, a repository of wisdom and truth against the threat of imminent 1930’s Fascist catastrophe had an almost irresistable appeal to a troubled world. This has certainly been my take on Tibet: a sort of paradise where only goodness and truth ruled.

    “Shangri La” appears to be a derivative of “Shambala”, the 15th century European name for Tibet. Western explorers, setting out from India sought to find the mythical land. At first these were Portugese Jesuit missionairies setting out from the Goa region. The first of these to see Tibet was Antonio Andrade, in the early 1600s. Interestingly, the English translation of his journals was not published until not long before Hilton wrote Lost Horizon, and may have been informative of the novel.

    Chinese influence and hegemony over Tibet began around the time that Andrade was making the first Western visit to Tibet. By the 1700s China was installing the Dalai Lama as a political leader over the region. But it’s hard to pinpoint any definite timeline regarding Tibet. It seems to have been an area that was a prize for Mongols, Chinese and missionairies… anybody who cared to arrive with an army and a determination to subjugate its people (for whatever reason). Until 1911 China ruled, and then Tibet declared independence. One gets the feeling that the Chinese had other, more pressing, matters on hand at the time.

    However, in 1951, after Mao sorted out Chang Kai Shek, the Red Chinese reasserted their sovreignty over Tibet. This is the nub of the disagreement to the present day.

    From my reading, Tibet has always been a place without nationhood. In some respects the phrase “without nationhood” elicits the notion – albeit a relatively recent one – of Shangri La. The Dalai Lama, clearly a good bloke, is selected by some sort of divine intercession as the spiritual and temporal leader of the Tibetan people. However, I am not religious and I don’t believe in divinities, much less divine intercession. Perhaps, in my own mind, there is some regret that I cannot come to terms witht the concept of “God”.

    But nevertheless, I am drawn to the Dalai Lama as a human being. Who wouldn’t be? Maybe it’s because he really is an intelligent, folksy, cruisey dude, and maybe there’s a bit of the old hippy in me that puts it all together.

    Whether or not Tibet is a viable nation, that could trade and be self-supporting is, to my mind, highly doubtful. I feel for the people there who are faced with being buried by a Chinese tide. Why China is interested in Tibet, I don’t know. Maybe there’s valuable mineral wealth in its unexplored mountain ranges. Maybe China wants a buffer against India. Maybe it’s just a centuries old tradition that China rules Tibet, and too bloody bad if you don’t like it.

    Whatever the situation, the Western concept of Shangri La dies hard. The idea that a perfect people, led by a leader chosen by the divinity is a hard one to let go. The Dalai Lama’s own personality seems too good to be true. Is this all there is to it? Maybe that’s enough for the 50-something politicians of the West, hankering for the old days, lost but perhaps able to be regained, of simplicity and innocence.

    Rudd, a Sinophile by all accounts, is in a delicate position. He travels to China just at the time that tensions are at a periodic high over Tibet. Combine this with the imminence of the Olympic Games – with boycott now on the table – and you have a potential powderkeg for the fledgling Prime Minister. It will be a delicate path for him to tread. According to some accounts, he carries a message from America to lay off Tibet. If this is true, it is an unambiguous honour for the boy PM. Whether he can pull of some kind of detente, however, is highly problematic. Whether he should is an entirely different question.

    We shouldn’t underestimate the importance of Tibet as related to the Games and hence, to China. I think Rudd will probably understand this and will tread the path lightly. It seems he scored a bunch of brownie points at the APEC meeting by the simple expedience of speak Mandarin. Rudd literally “speaks their language”. Howard’s attitude to China was that there were a few Chinese in Bennelong who might vote for him and that Chinese food was “very tasty”: hardly an open invite to the inner sanctum of the Chinese demographic mind. The beneficiary of China’s attention, from that point on, was pretty easy to predict. Kevin Rudd is “Da Man”.

    Critics who lambast Rudd for ignoring Japan neglect the obvious point that while Japan may be our largest trading partner for now, China is clearly going to be the trading partner of the future, followed by India, between whom lies Tibet. Those who say Rudd should have rung the Japanese PM when shit like Tibet is going down are essentially speaking about the past, not the future (and please let’s put aside who should have rung whom).

    Rudd is walking in green fields. The future is open to whomever grasps its potential. Tibet, perhaps sadly, is not our main concern.

    There never was a Shangri La.

  36. KieraNoilii, As I understand it, the person known to his mum as William Bowe, has provided a site that offers the opportunity for learning about all things psephological, and a good deal more, if you take the time. Information exchange is a part of it. You may choose to make only one or two postings, which is fine. Goodness knows, we’ve all got other things to do. As I intimated in my previous posting, other occupations mostly take my time. It’s not that I, or indeed others, might be unwilling to research particluar topics, but a lack of time. So, maybe, learning with whom you are dealing might be useful for further dialogue?

  37. [Dear Dr. It was a crap solution, cobbled together by Helen Coonan and The Singapore Govt. Shame it would not work, which every communications “expert” was telling you. Hills and rain tend to make wireless – broadband-less.]

    And you forgot Strong Easterly Winds also cause Wireless not to work.

    Good move by Conroy.

  38. 284
    BB – I’ve often observed (to myself, for fear of being avoided by the more virtuous) that the Dalai Lama is a kind of sacred cow – it seems to be automatically assumed that he is a font of all wisdom and unquestionably good.
    I remember walking around a school art room a few years ago, which was plastered (presumably by the art teacher) with some of his pithy sayings, and thinking (to myself again, for the reasons outlined above) that they were all a bit wishy washy really.
    (Part of the ‘Tibetan problem’ as I understand it at present is in fact that a significant number of young Tibetans feel that the DL’s approach to life isn’t working).
    I will also add some personal observations, as someone whose family lives in one of the former Soviet countries.
    Although my grandparents, aunts and uncles all did the respectable ‘done’ thing and railed against the Russians, they undoubtedly received better health care and education and thus lived longer lives than they would have had their countries remained independent.
    A few years after they regained their freedom, the constant requests for money we used to get from them were replaced by requests for food parcels and basic medicines. One of my aunts wrote wistfully “I suppose it’s good being free, but before we had enough to eat.”
    Virtually none of my family live in that country now, but have moved to places like Spain where they can get work – ‘independence’ has meant depopulation.
    So I’m very mixed about poor countries ‘yearning to be free’ of the yoke of bigger ones – as with most things in the world, it’s a lot more complicated than the slogans would have you believe.

  39. Howard’s attitude to China was that there were a few Chinese in Bennelong who might vote for him and that Chinese food was “very tasty”:

    It’s minutiae, but I read somewhere that Howard always refused to eat Chinese food.

  40. Bushfire B. Yes, that romanticism of Shangri-la is interesting in relation to Tibet, but I think the fluidity of borders between the East and West is an equally interesting concept, particularly if you think about it in relation to the disparities between how local groupings of peoples (clans, tribes, etc.) vs. Empires’ views of who belonges/d to them.
    I’m buggered if I know how you reconcile the various views around these days about China and Tibet.
    As I’m equally buggered about how you reconcile Israel and Palestine.
    And I don’t think I’m alone.

  42. It’s minutiae, but I read somewhere that Howard always refused to eat Chinese food.

    It is in Bushfire Bill family folklore that on the occasion of his first visit to China to meet whoever-was-premier-then, Howard leaned over to his el-Supremo Beijing host and said, “This Chinese food is very tasty”. There was ABC video of the occasion, with the sound from Howard’s lips artificially amplified and filtered to isolate the words, but those were his utterances, as far as my memory is concerned.

    Jeanette was tucking into chicken and sweet corn soup at the time, also from memory.

  43. [It is in Bushfire Bill family folklore that on the occasion of his first visit to China to meet whoever-was-premier-then, Howard leaned over to his el-Supremo Beijing host and said, “This Chinese food is very tasty”. ]

    Then again, he may have been briefed by his minders to say that to avoid an international incident by not offending his hosts.

  44. “young Tibetans feel that the DL’s approach to life isn’t working”

    Don’t know why they feel that way, the Dalai Lama travels first class, stays in the best hotels and people pays thousands to hear him speak of the simple life, a bit like Paris Hilton, except he is male, a bit older and doesn’t have as much hair.

    I reckon he has a great approach to life.

  45. Bushfire Bill – the problem with taking the pragmatic view is that it often the eventual cost is far greater than the gain.

    We went along with the pragmatic view of Palestine and the result has been 60 years of misery that has cost untold lives, included some of us, and will cost many, many more.

    We took the pragmatic view on T!bet and are allowing a people to wither at a cost yet to be determined.

    We took the pragmatic view on Timor and did nothing while 250,000 people died because trade and good relations with Indonesia were of greater import. It has ended up costing us a few lives and a considerable amount of treasure, perhaps more than we made by our indifference, and its not over yet.

    We continue to take the pragmatic view on West Papua in a repeat of history.

    But will we be quite so sanguine if, or is it when, a more powerful entity decides it wants our land claiming prior rights. These may even contain an element of fact given historical trading links, perhaps enough to allow other pragmatists to shrug their shoulders at our plight without over troubling their consciences.

    With the upheavals that climate change may bring that day could come sooner than later. Most scenerios I’ve seen suggest that CC will force a movement of peoples to higher latitutes and in our region they’ll have only one place to go!

  48. The Member for Charters Towers is my idea of a good Leader of the Queensland Nats if the Borg’s Pineapple Party goes belly up or fails to get off the ground. So far Shane Knuth has declared war on feral Pigs, flying foxes, dingoes and cane toads. His solution is usually a larger bounty for shooting or some sort of mass eradication. The similarity in style between Shane Knuth and Bjelke Petersen is enormous. I can not see one trait Joh had that is not common to Shane.

    Occasionally, when feeling overworked he pines for a holiday at the Cleveland Youth Detention Centre at Townsville. He is one of the harder working and smarter of the Qld Nats with huge leadership potential should the Borg fail for a third time at the next election or the Liberals decline his amalgamation offer.

    http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,23472082-952,00.html

  49. 284…BB

    When one learns to speak the language, one learns insight…I believe the world is in the first phase of the shift in power and influence…India will be a major trading partner in less than twelve years.

    Food will be the next boom.

  50. Frank Calabrese (and William)

    Of recent interest, as it happens. Lateline Business addressed the Kerry Stokes and WA Newspaper issues.

    Apparently Kerry S unhappy with the loss of focus, away from the reader (purchaser, I assume)

    Cannot report fully, my TV ariel is a little wobbly, thus transmission is interrupted, in the high winds. I think.

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