The Times they are a-changin’

The Times (of London) yesterday reported on what looked to me like a political horror story for Barack Obama, involving an Iraqi-born billionaire said by a Pentagon report to have “served as Saddam Hussein’s principle international financial manipulator and bag man”, a multi-million dollar loan conducted through a Central American finance company, and an admission from Obama of “boneheaded mistakes”. Yet it appears to be receiving little coverage in the US, the links in the chain being admittedly rather weak (though since when has that ever stopped anyone in presidential politics?). So Hillary Clinton will evidently have to hope for some other miracle to come along in the four days before the next primaries. The latest polls show Obama streaking ahead in Texas, and closing in fast in Ohio.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

436 comments on “The Times they are a-changin’”

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  1. RB – [as an unreconstructed old Trot, any submarine I owned would have to be called “Red October”.]
    I see. Does this mean you’ll need to be the captain too? They do say boat partnerships never work, but maybe we just have to work through our lists of priority targets – they could overlap, although mine are more from a modern left viewpoint.

  2. ‘S Ok JV. It would be CALLED Red October but it wouldn’t have nukes. I don’t believe in “the workers’ bomb”:

    “So raise the workers’ bomb on high
    Beneath it’s cloud we’ll gladly die.
    For though it blows us all to hell
    It kills the ruling class as well.”

    As for who’s captain. Just as long as I can occasionally look through the periscope and say “take her up” in a Sean Connery accent, I’m happy to leave the rest to someone else.

  3. RB – Just realised that a couple of lefties discussing the purchase of a military submarine for $497,000 might attract the interest of the spooks!

    Anyway, maybe we could finance it by starting a business taking tourists around Sydney Harbour in re-enactments of the midget submarine attack in WW2 – now there’s an great business idea! Who said the left are poor entrepreneurs? We’ll get a developer in Wollongong to put up the money.

  4. Finnigans

    In days of yore (pre 1814) your comments about HRH and her grandson would have been construed as treason ” punishable by being hanged, drawn and quartered (men) or burnt at the stake (women)” [Wikipedia], not an enjoyable experience I believe.

    Aren’t you glad you live in these enlightened times where state sanctioned murder is no longer allowed?

  5. JV – How do you suggest such a re-enactment could be staged? To be accurate it would have to: 1. Sink a ferry; 2. Then end up itself on the bottom of the harbour.
    If it’s entrepreneurial ideas you’re after then calling it Red October might be the go. Tourists could pretend they’re in the film. The submarine could alter its name for different groups and re-enact different films. British tourists, for instance, could experience a stiff upper lip British war film of the ’50s. In which case I bags to be the semi anonymous “chap” who yells out at a moment of (very slightly) heightened emotion: “I say! Steady on.”

  6. ViggoP #105: I have two relevant memories from selling Socialist newspapers on the streets (as was once my want). In 1983 when Di and Chuck were visiting Aus I was selling a paper with a headline that (humorously) attacked the couple. They sold like hotcakes, but one of my fellow sellers was confronted by a middle aged man who informed him (face millimetres away from face) that: “Did you know that, in wartime, the penalty for sedition is death!”
    In 1991, as Gulf War 1 reached its bloody denouement with the “Turkey shoot” on the road to Basra and the bulldozing of surrendering conscript soldiers into their trenches, we had a less humorous headline: “George Bush: War Criminal”.
    One of my fellow sellers, a diffident young man, was confronted with what appeared to be a typical middle-aged American tourist. He endured the torrent of abuse (“You can’t say that about OUR President!” etc etc) without comment. After the bloke had walked off and he had wiped the spittle of his face, the young bloke was surprised to learn from a passerby that the abusive yank was none other than Billy Joel.

  7. Hell, William.

    Apart from a rethink since I first posted and now only looked again. On that, I was thinking that it is no kind of money for the US. Or even scandal. For the US. I hunted through the US papers, and as you say, little notice taken.

    Just to settle my mind, the original heading content changed, did it not?

  8. Thanks RH

    My daughter (thirty something), bless her, is a great fan of Billy’s, paid good money to see him on his latest tour here. I can’t stand his music: no problem with the voice just what he does with it. I’ll keep this one for her next time we share a couple of bottles of wine.

    Correction: it’s not HRH, it’s Her Maj. I’ll apologise to her next time she calls in for a chat.

  9. Thanks, William.

    May I, still on unsure ground here, not having the original text, suggest that you retain your accustomed practise. Of addendum or update to the original. I did read your #2 before I posted at #108, which I suppose indicates a certain uncertainty on my part.

    Which is hardly your problem.

    Cheers.

  10. “Twas in another thread, and besides the troll is dead”.
    I made a half-hearted comment about Texas in an old thread which provoked a response from ESJ that, if Texas voted Democrat in November he would “join the ISO”. (As an aside, anyone else notice that ESJ stopped posting around the same time Buckley died? Not saying there’s a connection, but….).
    I never thought that Texas could conceivably vote Democrat. However, I was compelled by ESJ’s comment to access Adam’s electoral archive and add up the congressional votes received by all Dem and Rep candidates in Texas in 2006. The result was, unsurprisingly, a Rep majority, but not by as big a margin as I would have expected: 55%/45%.
    There have been since some articles talking about a Democratic surge in Texas fuelled by renewed political interest by Latinos (in the wake of last year’s giant demonstrations) and demographic shifts. I would still expect Texas to remain red, but if anyone notices a would-be patrician, Buckleyesque figure hawking Socialist Workers come November, put me down as having predicted the possibility.
    Now there’s an article that makes the same point – not about Texas but about the whole country. It argues that the whole Red State/Blue State duality is about to be shaken up.
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/03/throw_out_the_maps_in_2008.html
    The author imho overdoes the even-handedness by treating the prospect of secular Dem voters won back by McCain as being as significant as the Republicans won back to Obama. I doubt if the numbers are similar. In any case the point about Obama is not just (or even prinarily) winning over what I would call “South Park Republicans”. The point is, as Texas demonstrates, awakening the slumbering beast of the American working class that has mostly not voted at all – Red or Blue.

  11. #109 – ViggoP [Correction: it’s not HRH, it’s Her Maj] – so obviously you will be “hanged, drawn and quartered (men) or burnt at the stake (women)” before i did. Welcome to my world.

  12. Bonjour Bludgers, here’s further evidence that the sleeping giant of proletarian Rip Van Winkelism is stirring:) ……Will Red October morph into Pinko November as millions of Commie Punk Zombies are heralded by The New Dawn?
    [In R.I., Obama Makes Inroads
    Tiny State Seen as Clinton Stronghold
    By Keith B. Richburg
    Washington Post Staff Writer
    Sunday, March 2, 2008; Page A01
    PROVIDENCE, R.I. — While Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama have spent most of the past two weeks focused on delegate-rich Texas and Ohio, tiny Rhode Island — with 21 pledged delegates at stake Tuesday — is reveling in its unaccustomed position of relevance in a Democratic presidential nominating contest……
    The demographics here would also seem to provide an advantage to Clinton — Rhode Island is heavily blue-collar, working-class and the most Catholic state in the country. White Catholics have provided strong support for Clinton in other New England states…….
    But if there is any question that the momentum in the race is with Obama, consider the view of Rudy Almada, an electrical inspector who, based on voting so far, should be one of Clinton’s most loyal backers.
    “I don’t know who to vote for,” Almada said, shaking his head on a breezy day in Providence’s old downtown. “I normally would support Hillary,” he said. “She has a serious answer for every question you can come up with. . . . But I want to hear more from Obama.”
    “Now that he has the country’s attention, I want to listen to him,” Almada said. “There must be something I’m missing.” ……..
    Obama also has his own big-name supporters, particularly Rep. Patrick J. Kennedy and ex-senator Lincoln D. Chafee, a former Republican who became an independent after losing his 2006 reelection bid. Chafee said Obama’s early opposition to the Iraq war, coupled with Clinton’s vote to authorize the war, is the main reason he is backing the senator from Illinois.]
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/01/AR2008030100894.html?hpid=topnews

    And here’s a video of Obi doing convincingly what HRC and Johnny Bomb-Bomb are utterly incapable of doing. Of course it’s P.R., but it’s so good even Goebbels would have acknowledged its brilliance. Can anyone remember a candidate for the keys to 1600 Penn. doing what BHO does in this clip? In a country that’s plenty big on Jesus, these images strike a Christ-like chord that’s resonating beyond the ugliness of MSM spin. Seems the MSM, handmaidens to the Military Industrial Political Complex that Ike warned of in 1961, can no longer control The Message.
    http://firedoglake.com/2008/03/01/obama-videos-celebrities-vs-real-people/

  13. G’day Bludgers, and the clock is ticking, and finally the murmerings begin:

    Mrs. Clinton’s advisers have suggested that she will bow out of the race if she falters in either state, after 11 straight losses.

    …just as we’ve long suspected, (well, since Bill told us, actually!)

    But what will define ‘falter’? Looking at the polls for both these states, and over several months, you’d hardly conclude that she hasn’t already faltered, but even slight vote majorities in either or both are hardly something to crow about.

    As it looks, she could still ‘win’ both, but as we all know, that’s not nearly enough to change things for her.

    Pass the popcorn…

  14. If you use the Forbes calculator and put in the current poll averages from RealClear Politics for Ohio, Texas, Vermont, Rhode Is, Pennsylvania, N Carolina (using 51/49 to Clinton in Texas to prolong the argument), and then 50/50 in the remaining states and for remaining superdelegates you get this as the final picture:

    Obama 2,043
    Clinton 1,960

    Attractive to ponder, isn’t it?

  15. 84
    codger

    Fascinating article, although Pepe does tend to ramble a bit (I’ve read other stuff of his, and I can confirm it’s definitely his style! LOL).

    I like the way he nails the the Kurdish/Cypriot/Kashmir stories to Kosovo and asks the obvious question, ‘why is this one different?’, and although it’s not fashionable to talk the truth about oil, does so.

    It’s interesting that the Europeans knew the game too:

    In April 1999, British General Michael Jackson, the commander in Macedonia during the NATO bombing of Serbia, explained to the Italian paper Sole 24 Ore “Today, the circumstances which we have created here have changed. Today, it is absolutely necessary to guarantee the stability of Macedonia and its entry into NATO. But we will certainly remain here a long time so that we can also guarantee the security of the energy corridors which traverse this country.”

    …don’t you love the way the British speak? None of this ‘bringing democracy’ to a tiny country that we’ve planted a giant military base on, run successive corrupt and compliant governments in, and secured the interests of US oil. Ah, that old Imperial voice; they may not have the empire any more, but crikey, they’ve not forgotten how to talk the talk! LOL

    Milosovich was a ‘gimme’, wasn’t he?

    And finally, AMBO is being signed off, and another blow for ‘democracy’ has been struck.

  16. GG

    What a despicable man he is….divide and rule mentality that has a good chance on backfiring due to the attention will be on the Democrat primaries.

    My take is that Americans are in the mood for change regardless if it is Hillary or Obama….the Republicans are burned toast.

  17. Rush sounds really scared that Hillary will lose:

    “I know I’m fighting an uphill battle . . . vote for Hillary to keep this campaign going, this ‘uncivil war,’” Rush said.

    “Remember what this is, this is about us winning. You have to understand, it’s not about Hillary winning; It’s about us winning. It’s about our party winning. It’s about those people losing. They’ve got some problems in the Democratic Party. It’s not all sweetness and light over there . . .

    “If Hillary loses this thing, all of that’s going to come to a screeching halt. We want all the disruption in that party as possible. It’s about us winning.”

    …oh dear, how desperate does he sound?

  18. GG – I can’t see one right-wing shock-jock making all the difference. But what it does reflect is the primordial fear of the Repugs that Obama will be their opponent. As Limbaugh said:
    “Remember what this is, this is about us winning. You have to understand, it’s not about Hillary winning; It’s about us winning. It’s about our party winning. It’s about those people losing.”

  19. KR,

    I don’t think he is appealing to Obamalytes or those, like yourself, that have bought the sizzle and not the sausage.

    To Rush, this is politics as usual. Crude, rude and unprincipled. All about winning.

    It will be interesting if the Obama can overcome the Rush endorsement and proudly proclaim he now represents the Limbaugh Loonies.

  20. 123
    Greeensborough Growler

    Nothing ‘lite’ about Obama GG, nor Clinton for that matter, it’s just that he’s the most appealing candidate on so many fronts, that he even manages to garner the votes of people who even a few years ago would not have imagined voting for a black American.

    Buying the ‘inexperience’ line from Camp Clinton is a bit facile for you GG.

  21. It will be interesting if the Obama can overcome the Rush endorsement and proudly proclaim he now represents the Limbaugh Loonies.

    GG…..the best laugh I’ve had all weekend!

    Maybe a percentage of “Rush’s Rabble” might get caught up in the excitement and convert….oh, that would be sweet justice.

  22. KR,

    Facile is actually the wrong word to describe a legitimate doubt about Obama’s capacity to be POTUS.

    Clinton’s latest ads would seem to be focussing on this issue as well.

    BTW, I have been selling not buying this proposition.

  23. GG – 123 […those, like yourself, that have bought the sizzle and not the sausage.]

    I think it’s rather a case of being careful not to swallow the fairy-floss about Obama the lightweight being offered by the Clinton/McCain camps – get your Barack beef sausage here:

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/chi-obama-speeches-analyzed-feb24,1,3150697.story?page=1

    “Ambitious speakers in the past have found themselves vulnerable to the criticism. Robert F. Kennedy was questioned about who would actually pay for all of his noble plans. Gary Hart spoke grandly about “new ideas,” only to be hit by a blunt rejoinder quoting a hamburger commercial: “Where’s the beef?””

  24. 127
    Greeensborough Growler

    A voting majority says you’re wrong Growler, and come November will do the same.

    So by this ‘logic’, (if one dared to call it such), GW Bush was amply ‘experienced’ to become POTUS? Being a governor of Texas, and all.

    It seems to me that the POTUS is selected on character, and with Dubbya they got themselves dudded by a dry alcoholic and faux cowboy who was all swagger, ten gallon hat, but nothing to fill it with.

    Obama on the other hand has not been silver spooned into his life, has succeeded on his own ample merits, is personally engaging, intellectually weighty, and does not turn people off in the same way that Clinton does.

    Sorry, Growler, but this mantra about ‘experience’ is an utter load of Clinton rubbish, and the proof of the pudding is his superior campaign.

    Mrs “Experience” got caught out being ill-prepared, surrounded herself with loyal cronies, and is now scraping the bottom of the barrel just to stay in the race.

    Now, tell me who’d you want answering the phone in the Oval office? LOL

  25. JV,

    I prefer the famous Lloyd Bensten quote when considering Obama:

    “Senator, I served with Jack Kennedy: I knew Jack Kennedy; Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine. Senator, you’re no Jack Kennedy.”

  26. there is a BCC poll in todays courier mail showing

    63-37 Lord Mayor in Newmans favour (a swing of 8%?)

    52-48 in favour of the Libs (no swing)

  27. 131
    Greeensborough Growler

    Indeed, Obama is no Jack Kennedy, in fact he’s very much NOT from wealth and privilege, is not drug addicted, women addicted, and oh yeah, not Catholic! LOL

  28. GG -‘ “Senator, I served with Jack Kennedy: I knew Jack Kennedy; Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine. Senator, you’re no Jack Kennedy.” ‘

    I dunno GG – That was said about Dan Quayle, and I’d have to agree with Lloyd there. It was also said 25 years after Jack Kennedy’s death. I think it’s a bit early and a bit unfair to be judging Obama against the historical memory of JF Kennedy.

  29. Robert B @ 106 [How do you suggest such a re-enactment could be staged? To be accurate it would have to: 1. Sink a ferry; 2. Then end up itself on the bottom of the harbour.]
    Well, for the pyrotechnics we’d just borrow the chaps who do the NY Eve fireworks on the bridge to light up an old tub – 6 shows a day. Then sound the dive klaxon aooogarrrh -aooogarrh- aooogarrh, for the tourists. W’ed only have to submerge by a couple of feet. By the way, I know you want to hear that sound:

    http://resources.bravenet.com/audio_clips/sound_effects/object_-_submarine_diving_klaxon_horn/listen/

  30. On a tangent, these Quayle quotes are a good laugh. For example:

    “Welcome to President Bush, Mrs. Bush, and my fellow astronauts.”

    “People that are really very weird can get into sensitive positions and have a tremendous impact on history. ”

    http://www.quotationspage.com/quotes/Dan_Quayle/

    I hope we get another VP like him, even if he was no Jack Kennedy!

  31. “A voting majority says you’re wrong Growler, and come November will do the same.”

    “Madame KR” and his crystal ball have it all wrapped up. No need for the rest of the Primaries or probably even the election. We’ll just declare Obama President Not Jack Kennedy and be done.

    I’d give you and your predictions some cred if you can provide the winner of this afternoon’s Terang Cup.

    Otherwise, I might wait till all the votes are in and all the delegates have decided who will be their candidate. Sorry, it is this facile belief I have in the democratic process.

  32. GG – No 9 Sailor Salute for the Terang Cup – currently $3.90

    No 1 Barack Obama for POTUS – currently $1.84

  33. GG- Don’t know about KR, but as an Obama supporter I also like the name of No. 14 in the Cup – Deliver Us.

  34. 141 Ogmios – [if Obama goes all the way, who would be Vice POTUS?]

    Is Dan Quayle still alive? – I want more of those quotes

  35. I have already conceded that Obama is the favourite going into the 4 March contests.

    Nonethelesss, don’t be surprised if Clinton pulls off two upset wins. The polling averages don’t even back up the commentators take on the races. The polls show she is leading in Ohio, and it’s a dead-heat in Texas.

    This primary campaign has shown when Hillary is down and written-off, she wins. She looses when she’s favourite.

    This is the ad Clinton ran across New Hampshire on the night before election day. Go Hillary.

    http://www.hillaryclinton.com/video/100.aspx

  36. “I believe we are on an irreversible trend toward more freedom and democracy – but that could change. ”
    Dan Quayle, 5/22/89

  37. From wiki

    His [Quayle’s] most famous blunder occurred when he corrected a student’s correct spelling of “potato” to “potatoe” at an elementary school spelling bee in Trenton, New Jersey, on June 15, 1992.[13] According to his memoirs, Quayle was uncomfortable with the version he gave, but did so because he decided to trust what he described as incorrect written materials provided by the school. He informed student William Figueroa that he had misspelled the word “potato”, when in fact Figueroa had spelled it correctly. Quayle then had Figueroa add an “e”, not only making it incorrect, but once again making himself a target with this obvious mis-spelling. Quayle was widely lambasted for his apparent inability to spell the word “potato.” Figueroa was a guest on Late Night with David Letterman and was asked to lead the pledge of allegiance at the 1992 Democratic National Convention. The event became a lasting part of Quayle’s reputation.

  38. I just watch a BBC interview with Ralph Nada and the BBC was giving him a serve for exercising his democratic rights to stand for public office. I could not help but think if only the US and Britain adopted preferential voting the they would not need to criticize someone for exercising their democratic rights. If the powers that be listened to http://fairvote.org they should have implemented voting reform long before now. Personally I think the direct election of a head of state is a total waste of limited public resources. Money that could be well spent on other moore pressing issues. Hopefully Australia will never go down that path. William if you can find time I would be very interested on your take o the Nada impact o the 2008 US Dysasty appointed (World) President.

  39. GG#131 I would sincerely hope that Obama is not simply another JFK. For a start he wrote his own book while JFK got Daddy to hire a ghostwriter (then Daddy made sure this was ignored and favourite son unashamedly accepted the Pullitzer).
    JFK was the genuine A Grade lightweight. His assassination was the best career move he ever made.

  40. GG 131- JFK gave us the Vietnam War, Space Race, Bay of Pigs, Cubam Missile Crisis and innumerable sex scandals are all in three short years. Imagine eight years of that. We’d be lucky if we were still here.

    Yep, Obama is no JFK.

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