US presidential primaries: week off edition

We’re now half way through a quiet period in the presidential primaries calendar, which will end with the last major contests in Texas and Ohio next Tuesday. The graphs below show Democratic opinion polling over the past two weeks, bearing in mind that there are almost as many pollsters represented here as polls. The pollsters only record responses from “likely” Democratic voters, which makes it hard for them to get what would strike Australian observers as an impressive sample size: the range was 564 to 902 in Ohio, and 403 to 660 in Texas. Figures sourced from Real Clear Politics.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

742 thoughts on “US presidential primaries: week off edition”

  1. yeah JV, you get ‘attitude sickness’, or high poxyness from too much rarefied atmospherics and not washing your hands.

    A good yak with a therapist is what she needs.

  2. Seen odds lately on Betfair for POTUS?:
    Obama 9/10
    McCain 2/1
    Cllinton 10/1

    So Obama out a point, McCain steady, Clinton a blowin’ in the wind

  3. KR – “A good yak with a therapist is what she needs.”
    RB is right KR – they were bad puns – especially that one of yours.

    Since the talk about mounaineering I’ve got an image of Hillary (C, not Sir E) playing that chap from “Touching the Void” – did you see that movie – true story?
    He badly breaks his leg, falls over a precipice, and hangs in the blizzard swinging around in mid-air, his anchoring partner has to cut the line so he falls ‘into the void’ down a deep crevass, manages to find his way out from under the ice further down the mountain, crawls & stumbles across boulders for a few k’s with his excruciating leg back to camp after being given up for dead.

    Can Hillary (C) emulate that??

  4. GG, Your post at 621 was given legitimate replies – using your definition of legitimate of course.

    As for Landeryou’s gossip column….are you serious?

  5. GG @ 664 – Give me a break GG – that’s hyperbolic drivel from one A Landeryou.

    As to 621, the only mention I could see in The Times article about Obama was the following:

    “Mr Auchi visited the United States in 2004. Pictures show him meeting Emil Jones, the president of the Illinois state senate, an ally of Mr Obama, a former state senator.

    Both Mr Auchi and Mr Obama say they have no memory of meeting each other. But, according to a source, the two may have had a brief encounter at the Four Seasons Hotel in Chicago where Mr Auchi’s visit was being honoured with a dinner attended by the Governor when Mr Obama, coincidentally in the hotel, dropped in.

    An aide to Mr Obama said he did attend an event at the Four Seasons at which Mr Rezko was present but does not remember meeting Mr Auchi. “He shook a lot of hands and met a lot of people,” the aide said. “We do not remember individual people.””

    Gee, just like Wollongong is it? They’ll have to do a bit better than that I’m afraid. I entirely agree that legitimate questions should be asked of the candidates, but that was just a pi*s-weak attempt at smear by association.

  6. You don’t like the questioning. Therefore, you ignore the substance.

    Just like Obama supports the war in Iraq because he has supported the funding? The rhetoric here would indicate otherwise.

  7. j/v Growlers post at #621 is an article from Timeonline journo.

    There are 3 pages on the link to read & the facts seem to be:
    Do people think its swiftboating , guilt by association or requiring more info from Rezko ?

    The story involves:
    involving Antoin Rezko (Obama’s fundraiser)who is currently subject to charges

    & the purchase in 2005 by Rezko & Obama(being Obama’s new home $1.65 mill.)

    of adjoining properties on the same day
    3 weeks after Mr Auchi (also convicted of corruption)
    lent Rezko 3.5 million & at the time Mr Auchi was seeking a visa

    and that 7 months later Obama bought Rezko’s adjoining $500,000 property

    The article also says:
    Mr Obama now admits his involvement in this land deal was a “boneheaded mistake”.

  8. 669 GG – there IS no substance. That’s the point.

    As for the funding – there is, as you know, a massive difference between supporting the war and supporting the troops

  9. If anyone wants to see a case of ‘blogger groupie’, just plug “Greeensborough Growler Landeryou” into Google.

    Siamese twins? Joined at the lip?

    Growler, you playin’ bitch for Andy?

  10. Ron @ 670
    Thanks for the tip on the extra 2 pages in The Times story. GG’s link was to page 3 I see now.-

    This is the key extract:
    “That means Mr Obama’s name could figure in Mr Rezko’s trial, although he is not accused of any wrongdoing.”

    As I said – no wrongdoing – just guilt by association. The truth is this sort of smear is going to go on and on until Hillary concedes, (and then again until November from McCain), because: 1. She hasn’t got anything left to say about why she is the better candidate of ideas, because she clearly isn’t, 2. There are squads of people trawling through rubbish bins as we speak, contacting the Obamas’ friends and family, digging and scraping, and they circulate whetever they dig up, however paltry. Politics by sewage truck.

  11. Hi Robert,

    Can’t say we’ve met.

    Start scrubbing!

    Check out William’s post called “Exit Stratgies” which links directly to Landeryou.

    We all take info from wherever it is.

    The truth is dirty sometimes.


  12. GG – I’ve far too many years under my belt to be gullible and seen far too many politicians to be starry-eyed. But you’re really going to have to come up with something of more substance than the drivel you refer to if you want to be taken seriously.

    You’re smarter than that.

  13. FG,

    Taken seriously.

    Ron’s gone into conniptions, KR is maintaing a stoic silence, jv is going through a review of the facts.

    But you deny everything. Maybe it stops you having to think about anything.

  14. 663
    jaundiced view

    Astonishingly uplifting story of the power of the human spirit, but we’re talking politicians here! Come on JV, we’re not that simple! LOL

  15. Growler, if you persist in being a Landeryou groupie, I’m sorry, but I for one cannot take you even remotely seriously.

    If you think for youself, well…OK, maybe then! LOL

  16. KR see my 676.

    If William sees Landeryou as credible, then who am I (and who are you) to argue!

    Seriously, look for view points that challenge your perceptions. Otherwise you will fall in love with the schimmer and not the substance.


  17. Here’s what I mean Growler, Landeryou gets it wrong, and then you get all dewy-eyed and moon along after him:

    Greeensborough Growler Says:
    February 12th, 2008 at 7:00 pm
    In concerning news from the front, Andrew Landeryou provides compelling questions about the judgement of Obama.

    …I mean Growler “compeling”?

    It wasn’t even in an official Obama office! Let alone a ‘judgement of Obama’!

    You really must try and wean yourself off trashy blogs mate.

  18. 683
    Greeensborough Growler

    Oh, if “William” says!

    FFS Growler, grow some nads and think for youself!

    If “Adam” says, or “William” says????

    Do make an effort to assess things with some critical faculties Growler, or we’ll consign you to the troll list.

  19. 679 GG – Now you’re really starting to growl!

    Your accusations have become global. I ‘deny everything’? Last time I looked I only denied that the recent posts you referred to today had any substance. That’s hardly ‘everything’.

    I dont ‘think about anything’? Well…actually GG, I think about lots of things – but also show some discernment in the material I take on board.

    If you read through my posts you’ll see I’ve written positive as well as critical posts about Hillary and Obama. Granted, I’ve not said anything much at all about the GOP.

    As I’ve said, Hillary has a lot to offer a Dem administration, but is too entrenched in the Washington establishment to change much as President. I’d hate to see her lost to the cause, however.

    Obama is, in spite of the tawdry attempts to smear him with the rubbish you’ve referred to, a person of sincerity and conscience. It’s rare in a politician. I’m sure as hell he’s not the messiah. I don’t expect that of any person. But I do think – having listened, applied some thought and read his policies – that he’s the best chance America has of once more becoming a nation to respect.

  20. Well this time last night Ferney & I were engaged in a rather firm debate but Ferny’s #685 blog of how he has conducted himself is accurate.
    He’s ‘fair dinkum’

    So mate “But you deny everything. Maybe it stops you having to think about anything” was over the top by a long way. Perhaps you’re onto too much red.

    By all means rubbish the point of view but not the above


    ps/ me “conniptions” ?…yes excitement !

  21. Ron – @ 675 [23rd April 2007 Chicago Sun Times detailed story of Obama & Rezko]

    & GG – yes, I was doing and have now done my review of the facts and –
    The guts of it is – Obama bought a property from Rita Rezko, when her husband was under investigation about possibly influencing someone. Result, as Obama said back then when he said it was boneheaded ‘…people might think he got a favor from Rezko.’

    However, nothing in the article or the online Times one to suggest any favour from Rezco, no evidence of any favour from Obama to Rezco. Nothing further apparently since April 2007, nearly 12 months. I wonder if there has been any digging by the dirt machines since then?? And they have come up with ….. …… …… …… ……. ? Answer came there none.
    It’s just a smear.

    KR @ 663 – Maybe not, but keep an eye out for stray loops of mountaineering rope hanging from under her jacket.

  22. Bit harsh KR. GG’s no troll. Just has a bee in his bonett about all the fawning over BHO. Soaring oratory isn’t everyone’s Boston tea party.

    For a nation starved of hope, vision, compassion and – hell, a bit of intelligent leadership – who can blame them for a bit of fawning.

    Ogmios – there always is, but I know what you mean about this time.

  23. Good grief Growler, it’s not like you were not warned…a long time ago:

    Stewart J Says:
    September 16th, 2007 at 9:35 am
    GG @ 137
    I’ve normally enjoyed your contributions, but find your current contributions no better than Glen’s or others who slide into invective and abuse. BTW if you believe everything Landeryou publishes you’ll believe in the tooth fairy too.

    …been an Andy fan for some time, eh?

  24. Pony Smackers v Barracker Whackers round wtf is counting…Mr Bowe, just quietly & confidentially of course, I hear sage voices of ESJ & Gusface wailing in the wind, the reassuring repetitive hum; much like Mr Kelly & consider this…observe that…

    As if Hilly /Silly Willy, the Zimmer, or the H will make one iota of difference to Pox Americana the world has grown used to…

    Btw I wonder who she votes for…& what went wrong with the ‘democracy sale’ here, oh well…

  25. j/v #688
    nothing in the article or the online Times one to suggest any favour from Rezco, no evidence of any favour from Obama to Rezco. Nothing further apparently since April 2007, nearly 12 months.

    Ron says
    that was my impression. The article makes an implication based SOLELY on their 15 year association. The reference to Obama’s ‘fundraiser’ is undetailed.
    It was an association that was unwise & should have been severed years ago.
    Guilt by association seems the article’s basis.
    Now that its on the web 26/2/08 Obama would be wise to ensure everthing is out onto the public domain NOW…before the ‘swiftboats’ leak it gradually
    You agree ?

  26. KR @ 691

    It is fantastic that you want to spend so much of your limited life on this planet searching for alleged faux pas on my part. Unfortunately for you, I know a brace of teenagers who have already cornered the franchise.

    I use Landeryou as a source and if you look harder you will probably find a comment about taking what you like and leaving the rest behind. But hey, let’s not let facts get in the way of a personal vendetta.

    I can assure you that I have no interest in reading or retrieving all the 10,000 plus postings you have contributed to PB just to trip you up on some arcane point. Could not give a sh*it.

    But, hey, fill your boots and make a complete gig of yourself.

  27. Can we have a step back here.

    This started with Growler to Ferny
    “But you deny everything. Maybe it stops you having to think about anything”

    Growler , it was the last sentence that was over the top & too personal against Ferny and perhaps you may care to reconsider that sentence ?

  28. 694
    Ferny Grover

    nah, just whack growler and landeryou into google and you get pages of it! LOL

    For all his huff and puff he’s just a blogger’s b!tch and if Andy says it, well, Growler does too.

    Yep, he’s a real Hemingway!

    Diogenes had that bit right.

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