US primaries open thread

Been a bit busy lately, so it’s past time for a new US elections thread. Since Super Tuesday we’ve had an anticipated string of Barack Obama victories from caucuses in Nebraska, Washington and Maine and a primary in Louisiana, along with a narrow win for John McCain in Washington and probably meaningless victories for Mike Huckabee in Kansas and Louisiana. Tomorrow US time we have both parties holding primaries in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,263 comments on “US primaries open thread”

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  2. HuffPo Header:

    “Weekend At HILLARY’S
    Loses in Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington State, And The Virgin Islands, Fires Campaign Manager, Then Loses In Maine”

  6. The Finnigans –
    you don’t have to worship anyone to feel immense relief at the prospect of having a POTUS who can string a sentence together.

  10. In fact the Republicans pretty much got the response to the Florida/Michigan shenanigans right: halve the delegates.
    About 80 minor functionaries miss out on their voting rights in August (should help deter the State parties from the same stunt next time).
    The people still have their voice (avoids the sort of train crash you can see this becoming for the Dems).
    The Democrat response, on the other hand, runs the risk of looking fantastically inept if the nomination is still in the balance at convention time. I’m not sure, by the way, that a re-vote is allowed – I think it may require State legislation or executive decree, which with a Republican governor in Florida is presumably not likely to happen. (Happy to be corrected on that requirement if I am wrong).

  13. Brain function should be fine as he didn’t arrest. I just saw that he needed sixteen units of blood and that his chest injuries are the most serious. That’s a lot of blood and implies major vessel damage. RDH does not have a cardiac surgeon or a thoracic surgeon…

  15. Diogenes @ 63 – for a VIP they would’ve flown in a full specialist FIFO team, wouldn’t they? What they usually do, I thought.
    .

  16. 60
    Dyno Says:
    February 11th, 2008 at 9:09 pm
    In fact the Republicans pretty much got the response to the Florida/Michigan shenanigans right: halve the delegates.

    think Hillary will concede in March anyway ,
    but looking to actual Presential election Florida is winnable for the Dmocrats & represents a massive 10% of the college votes needed to win the Presidency, so
    resolving Florida rather than leaving as a “problem” is to Democrats interests.
    The problem is the current 2 Democrat candidates prioritys lie elsewhere

  17. You all know by now the so called “Bradley effect” where the voters told pollsters that they preferred the black candidate and then voted the other way.

    Let me now coin another one. I call it the “Obama effect” – this is where the delegates told the pollsters that they preferred the black candidate and then voted the other way. You heard it first here.

  19. KR @ 48

    i’m surprised William Kristol makes it to work each day.

    When he looks down at his feet i’m amazed that he makes the correct call which foot to put in front of the other.

  21. Finnigan #67: The Bradley effect didn’t manifest itself in South Carolina or Louisiana. It hasn’t manifested itself in Washington or Kansas or Maine. If Clintonistas are relying on that then all I can think of is a certain bunker in Berlin and a desperate dream of a replay of the “miracle of the house of Brandenburg”.

  22. Finnigans, let me coin the “Hillary effect”. This effect is where a party elects a candidate for the purposes of spiting their enemies rather than attracting voters and ends up losing an election. The democrats already gambled on their gal winning the nomination by Super Tuesday and they gambled wrong, now they have a mess on their hands which can only be solved by a gracious concession speech by Hillary Clinton which makes the convention a formality.

  24. #71 and #72 – What about the “Nelson Effect”? Where the most important person to be consulted over the “Sorry” apology is him. He’s real Nowhere Man.

  25. Hmmm Finnigans, good one @ 74.
    There might be a Rudd effect, too, have a policy for ten years, but only work out the details the day before it all gets unveiled.

  26. #73 JP – Obama doesn’t need any experience. He is the experience, a messiah, walks on water, turns bread into the Big Mac. Kumbaya my Lord, Kumbaya.

  28. 65 Rain- It’s not quite as easy as that. He might need to be put on heart bypass if the vessel damage is very close to his heart and I’m pretty sure they don’t have that at RDH. As you might be aware, cardiothoracic surgery is not really FIFO stuff as he might need a few trips to theatre and ongoing care. The CT and angiogram will help them work out what they need to do. The decision whether to transfer him to a major trauma hospital (would be the RAH in this case) or to fly people in would be made at a VERY high level, presumably between DFAT and the Fed Health Dept.
    I’ll be very interested to see what happens. I hope he gets the best care possible and survives.

  29. Hillary Raises $7.4 Million Online Since Super Tuesday
    By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
    Matt Stoller at Open Left writes about the phenomemal support,

    “It’s remarkable, because it is converting voters and supporters into activists and donors, only it’s probably not all the creative professional class anymore. Clinton, like Dean, became an underdog, a real underdog after February 5, with more public support than Village support, and her public directly responded over the internet to close this gap.

    In other words, the Obama campaign has had a strategy of cultivating online donors and activists, they know how to do it, and they are very good at it. The Clinton campaign has not done any of this particularly well, because it hasn’t been their strategy in the past. And somehow, they are at rough parity over the last 48 hours.

    Curiously, Obama’s site is not broadcasting dollars raised, only the number of donations. Its goal is 500,000 donors by March 4.

    Bottom line: There’s a lot of Democrats giving money this election cycle. They want their White House back and they’re willing to shell out to get it.

  30. Finnigans, I think most of us will agree we hope the “Nelson effect” remains in place for many a year to come. Or at least until the election. 🙂

  31. TW @72,
    This doesn’t look to me like a race that’s over.
    It will be over if Obama wins on March 4. But till then, I don’t think conceding will be anywhere near Hillary’s mind.
    The parties have insane rules: too complex, inconsistent between States (though more so for the Republicans), and with arbitrary power allocated to the super-delegates. The Democrats are just the unlucky ones who’ve been caught out first with a really close race that exposes all these wrinkles to public scrutiny.
    If Hillary does ok on March 4 this thing will keep running for quite a while yet.

  34. Glen ,Diogenes. Am i missing something?
    Tim Pawlenty. The governor of Minnesota? I’ve seen some not so good polls of him. You guys have been listening to the republicans and fox news again havn’t you.

    Don’t his state’s bridges fall down? Don’t get me wrong i think he would be a great running m8 for the GOP front runner (for the democrats). I can image McCain argues about tax and spending cuts. Obama talks about his running m8’s cost cutting on vital infrastructure like say i don’t know, bridges perhaps. As for the 1984 election as lovley their victory in Minnesota it is important to remember the Democrats candidate Walter Mondale was a senator from that state and hence a native son. Pawlty’s margins were never huge and ive seen bluer states with Gop Governors.

  37. Scotty, Obama will most likely lose the nomination, Clinton has leads in the States that matter the big states whereas Obama is picking up the crumbs and despite his ‘surge’ he’s still behind in pledged delegates. Obama cannot be taken seriously unless he wins big State primaries and as he has failed to do so so far then its hard seeing him win. Experience counts and Obama just aint up for it just yet IMHO.

  38. Scotty-I fully confess my information came from a number of Repug bloggers. Funnily enough, they didn’t mention the bridge falling down.

  39. Me too Diogenes, and you seem to know more details, and well ahead of the MSM too, so keep us informed, huh?
    .
    Back to the Dem pre-selection race however, I’ve recently caught up with some of my e-mail newsgroups, threads of personal experiences of incidents at Dem caucuses (spinning off from a WISCON site, of all places?!) that are complaining about bullying (in the open caucuses, not the secret ballot ones).
    .
    Just one of dozens of examples, ” I was listening to an NPR report on the Washington Democratic caucus this morning. A reporter who was at a caucus site was reporting that a woman who was speaking for Hillary was heckled by Obama supporters and shouted down with gross sexist comments and locker-room jeers, until she was near tears. Several women left. Her son who was in the military finally spoke up and defended his mother and Hillary. It was only then that the heckling subsided. It’s behavior like this that is making me more and more uncomfortable with Obama supporters, and I can second it, I’ve had to leave the last three Democrat Party fund-raising meetings I went to because of my disgust at their locker-room mentality”.
    .
    On a more general note, many Dems seem to dislike the caucus process in general and have been lobbying to remove them from Dem Party process (again, just one example of many):
    .
    “That said, one of the serious problems with open caucuses in general is that it lends itself to bullying. I’ve been going to caucuses since I was 17, and I’ve never been particularly comfortable with the process; especially once you start moving up through senate district conventions and state conventions, it becomes very easy for people to start throwing sharp elbows and intimidating others. And they do. This isn’t unique to the Obama campaign, it’s part of the caucus process. And it’s another reason it’s a lousy process and I keep trying to lobby through Party channels to have them relegated to history.”
    .

  40. “Experience” tells us that:

    John Howard is the best Prime Minister this country has ever seen, and Rudd is a no experience pretender with ‘me too’ policies.

    Rudy Giuliani is the next Republican President of the United States because he’s got the best policies, and has leadership written all over him because of his ‘experience’.

    Oh, give me a f&ckin’ break!!!!

  41. Scotty
    The governor of Minnesota as Repug mate for McCain
    Don’t his state’s bridges fall down ?

    that qualifys him for sure….what a great Repug double
    Obama will be so worried

  42. 85 Diogenes, well I was always a little suspicious about Diana’s death in Paris 🙂
    Less than 6 kms from a major hospital, the ambulance was 20 minutes late in getting there, and stopped twice on the way back? They sure took their time that night…

  43. 88
    Diogenes Says:
    February 11th, 2008 at 11:43 pm
    Scotty-I fully confess my information came from a number of Repug bloggers

    you are forgiven for believing truth from the ‘dark side’

  44. Fair enough i just thought u may remember the bridge from the news in the back of your mind. Its a real laugh to read into some of this stuff. His Lieutenant Governor Carol Molnau is also the Transportation Commissioner. and this is such a great quote.

    “Molnau is a controversial transportation commissioner; while she does not have a college degree and said she did not read bridge inspection reports.”

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carol_Molnau

    He did not even do the politically wise thing and blame it all on her and sack her.

    Well Glen. I think Obama will win. If he wins these three on Wednesday then Hawaii and Wisconsin as many polls suggest, then this should have a real effect on the Ohio primary. Though you could simply cut the word Obama out and paste the word Clinton in 😛

  45. 87
    Glen

    Glen , presume news bulletins did not reach the Nelson bunker as you helped Horatio with the apology words but

    Obama is to be the Democrat Nominee…your man Rudy he’s quit & u got McCain

  46. Meanwhile, in the topsy-turvy world of George W Bush speak:

    “the basic fundamentals of the economy are stable” as he signs a cheque for $168bn ( a tad over 1% of GDP, of ‘free’ spending money!),

    but:

    ”the signs are troubling enough” that he felt the tax rebates he worked out with Congress were necessary.

    …ah, go figure!

    This clown cannot even begin to realise that not only will he go down for the biggest foreign policy disaster of a generation, but he’ll get to see the nation’s economy slide into recession as well.

    Whiskey Tango Foxtrot does he do for an encore????????????

  47. Glen: Obama is ahead in pledged delegates. In fact, Real Clear Politics has him ahead on pledged and super delegates.

    This is not counting the 3 upcoming primaries, all of which Obama is favourite.

    Does that change your analysis?

  48. Glen @ 87
    I also do not understand the inexperienced argument. Obama was a state senator for 8 years from 1996 to 2004. Then he of course was the state senator we know today. That is 12 years (over a decade). People make him sound like a 1 term congressman sometimes. His experience from the Senate Foreign Relations Committee is also very impressive. as well as having being on other committees. Not that it is a good example but Bush was only governor for 8 years correct?

  49. I’m sorry guys, but catching up with all my Dem Party insider e-mails has been an amazing education for me tonight, here’s one with another common theme:
    .
    “As an Edwards supporter, I am down to my second choice, HRC, and I am happy to support her. And if Obama gets the nomination I will vote for him without hesitation, but then again, I often joke I would rather slit my wrists than vote Republican, but this has been the closest I have come to it in 15 years.
    .
    After this campaign, whomever is the Democratic nominee, I might have to take my 15 years away and write a “Delete My F**g Account” type of letter to the Party.”
    .

  50. Scotty , no Bush is never a good example to quote when advancing a rationale argument !

    This time next week , Obama will be leading the State count 26 to 10
    Yes the delegate count will be only slightly Obama’s way ,

    but politically I think the political advisers will say to Hillary the imbalance in the State count is fatal for her credibility

    KR , Rudy was just not your man ?

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