Voting has begun in today’s Florida primaries, the last to be held before Super Tuesday apart from Republican caucuses in Maine on Saturday. For refusing to play by the rules of the parties’ national committees, Florida has been stripped of the 210 delegates it would normally send to the Democratic national convention, along with half of its 114 Republican delegates. All 57 of the Republican delegates will be pledged to the winning candidate, whereas the Democratic primary amounts to nothing more than an opinion poll. Polls show John McCain and Mitt Romney neck-and-neck in the Republican race, with Rudy Giuliani looking very unlikely to pull off his Florida-first strategy.
My prediction – If obama keeps it within 100 delegates after Tuesday, he will win due to momentum from exceeding lowered expectations, and the fact that later states favour him more heavily. And he can keep it within 100 if he keeps his current momentum up – one more big endorsement, one more big speech, the oprah rally, this thing is so finely balanced anything could tip it.
Erytnicam ,
absolutely….whilst my 50 delegate shortfall prediction is looking silly now as the polls seemed to have surprisingly reversed , the 100 shortfall you mentioned or even 200 would be recoverable as I think there’s 1450 delegates up for grabs AFTER Super tuesday
I could be wrong but thought I saw that 1450 figure on CNN site a few weeks ago but cann’t find the story now.
Obama reckon is a good chance to win the Nominee as Ophra & Kennedy would have some credibility in Democrat ranks
From NBC’s Mark Murray
Ethel Kennedy back Obama
850 Ron: Try this site, it shows why Hillary is ahead nationally.
http://www.electoral-vote.com
850 Ron: “Obama has momentum”. Only in 3 states Hillary has 11 states.
#855
Well – not really. There are poll figures listed but what you really need to something that grinds down those numbers relative to the value in terms of delegates for the respective state and the value proposition that the resulting numbers generate for the respective parties.
The longer Hillary and Obama go at it, the more publicity they get. The better people get to know them.
thx Chris , gee its an excellent site with info i was unaware of
the state by state latest polls there are not good for Obama except in 3 Southern states….hmmm……..my 50 delegate shortfall has got sillier
maybe one should not predict on the heart
got go , enjoy your afternoon fellow spirits (…and of course the closet Rodents)
856 davidoff: Yes and fortunately the Democrats system is much fairer the Republicans.
but inspite of the Polls , i live inhope the delegate breakup by State district happens to be more favorable than the State Poll %’s
858 Ron Keep an eye on the Votemaster he provides excellent inside information. Even on the polls and delegates.
Here’s the Votemasters record for the 2006 election.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Info/track_record.html
Erytnicam-I’ve got a political question for you re your exam. I’ve been noticing McCain is getting a bit dithery and forgetful and might just be getting senile dementia. Reagan famously offered to take a dementia test before his second term. Can you tell the bludgers how you would investigate him. What treatment can you offer for dementia and how effective is it?
Ron,
I do NOT intend to substantially lower the levels of my intelligence to debate you!
The whole world can see EXACTLY what I wrote, and the whole world can see EXACTLY what an idiotic knowall knownothing wannabee neverbee moron you are!
Don’t EVER mention me again or read any of my comments again!
(Which part of that last line don’t you understand)!
Don’t EVER mention me again or read any of my comments again!
#864
Centre: don’t take this as anything personal, but – in your comments to Ron, you said:
and that was followed by the following question resummably directed at the very same person to whom you have made a request for the formal discontinuation of dialog:
(Which part of that last line don’t you understand)!
I was just wondering – are you expecting a reply? If Ron does reply it would seem to me that he is simply addressing a question and within that context would be free to open up points of argument. If he does not reply, should we assume that he is ignoring your request?
#864
Centre: don’t take this as anything personal, but – in your comments to Ron, you said:
and that was followed by the following question resummably directed at the very same person to whom you have made a request for the formal discontinuation of dialog:
I was just wondering – are you expecting a reply? If Ron does reply it would seem to me that he is simply addressing a question and within that context would be free to open up points of argument. If he does not reply, should we assume that he is ignoring your request?
Fellow poll bludgers, especially the ones with decent knowledge in betting. I request your assistance.
Please refer to my post of 782 where I gave an example of holding a bookmakers book.
The question that I ask is a) does the bookmaker record a profit of $11, or b) does the bookmaker actually record a loss of $39.
a) or b) ?
Decade of the dragon: “Who needs the US?”
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/decade-of-the-dragon/2008/02/02/1201801097277.html
“All of a sudden, the global economy has turned upside down. It used to be that the world’s prosperity relied on the health of the US economy — as the old saying goes: when the US sneezes, the world catches cold. But now it looks like the centre of gravity has shifted. Economic growth in developing nations was an astonishing 7% last year, more than twice the growth rate of the high-income countries. And this year, as the US teeters on the brink of recession, many emerging economies appear to be booming.
The Chinese in particular are confident that their economy will withstand a US recession. For the past several years, China’s economy has become much less reliant on exports to the United States and more focused on its own domestic demand as a source of growth. As the population becomes richer, it makes sense that China’s awesome manufacturing capability will shift focus from the 250 million American consumers towards the 1.3 billion local shoppers”
The US Presidential candidates may extol what a great country, how powerful the USA is, blah blah blah blah blah. The fact is that the US is on the decline just like the British Empire once was. That excellent article linked by KR at #609 – “The $1.4 Trillion Question: The Chinese are subsidizing the American way of life. Are we playing them for suckers—or are they playing us?” I think you don’t need to be Einstein to figure out who is the sucker here.
dividoff, It has all been said. It is there for the whole world to see. Therefore no further reply is necessary! People can make up their own minds.
#869
Well personally – I kind of feel that the whole idea of getting a bunch of reasonably opinionated and often well educated people to engage in betting as a means of qualifying the ‘best and brightest’ is in and off itself disingenuous.
863 – In terms of dementia the main one I’ve had to learn was Dementia triggered by Alzheimers (What Reagan had), in which case treatment is really symptomatic and trying to delay degeneration (ACh-esterase Inhibitors etc). Your looking for symptoms so in terms of diagnosis, so initially loss of short term memory, carelessness of appearance, deterioration of verbal ability and eventually unlearning of skills. If you have these sorts of things, you then try and eliminate other potential factors (tumors, adverse drug effects etc).
I’m not studying to be a dr, so i’m not really trained in diagnostics, but I would be surprised if McCain had Alzheimers.
davidoff, it is not a question of betting, it is a question of one being right and one being wrong. Maybe you would like to give me an answer for all of Australia to see.
a) $11 profit or b) $39 loss.
#872
Centre: I’m not interested in entering into a debate about your opinion versus Ron’s opinion because the subject doesn’t contribute anything. I have already provided options to William that would eliminate any hosting costs so from my point of view the philanthropically rationale is more bound around justification than reality. But if we dig into projections – I’m much more interested in opinion and argument surrounding a subject than the ability of someone to get lucky on an unqualified guess. For example – what are your projections for the post super tuesday delegate count and what is your rationale for you argument?
I think Hillary and McCain will be advancing into the final showdown.
William why don’t I have a leave a reply on my screen with the morgan thread?
871 erytnicam- Actually there is a 12% chance that a random 71yo male has dementia. The diagnosis of Alzheimer’s dementia is really one of exclusion after multi-infarct dementia, depression etc have been ruled out. It’s done on the basis of cognitive impairment on neuropsychological testing. One of the hallmarks is a deterioration in verbal fluency.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n6fMqwRobuQ
Personally, I’m voting for Miss Teen South Carolina…
#874
Can you qualify this a bit? I agree that McCain heading into the showdown is al but done and dusted. But the more interesting subject is Obama versus Clinton. We all know that Hillary will be there – but the subject today is not *if* Hillary will be there – the real subject will be Hillary versus Barack. My projection is that Obama will exit Super-Tuesday with more than 836 aligned delegates. Whats you projection?
I hate it when people post info without links to the supporting data!
Diogenes, you are pretty good at mathematics, could you help me out with my 867 post please!
Precisely 875, Alzheimer’s is only ever confirmed in autopsy. And it’s not necessarily an either/or with regard to depression, treating both may be a necessity. And you can’t tell me you really see tell tale signs of dementia in McCain. I’d be more worried about the hundreds of other diseases that are likely to accompany someone of his age such as CVD, stroke, cancer etc
#877 Bugger – there she is in the video!
Sorry Centre, accidentally switched off comments on the Morgan thread – back on now.
Thanks WB.
Alabama polling at the end of January. This goes beyond ‘the narrowing’.
http://www.pollster.com/08-AL-Dem-Pres-Primary.php
btw, William I would like my 864 post respected, please.
Centre re your 867. I just got home. Your figures look spot-on to me, and reflect a 115% book, in which you control the size of the bets. Straightforward -no laying off or any of that complicating stuff. I can’t understand the confusion one or two seem to have in their minds about it.
Anyway, I’m not sure where we are with all that – are we keeping a record of PBer’s actual bets they declare or not, with the expectation that they donate a proportion af any winnings to William? (I posted my own real bet on Betfair of $50 on Barack @ 7/2 as a starter when I was on briefly yesterday)
Centre, your demands are beyond my powers to enforce. I might tell Ron to put a sock in it if I could understand what the argument was about.
875 – Diogenes – I just realized you were the one who asked the original question, when you obviously already now something on the topic…why?
Thanks JV, to keep it simple, you say a) $11 profit.
Please post back to confirm.
Diogenes @ 875
Ahem, early & often…
Mac, I think the doc may be onto something here; AL recently had a link to this paddock full of second opinions
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0nqtL-P8kzo&eurl=http://bravenewfilms.org/blog/27350-john-mccain-is-dr-strangelove?utm_source=rgemail
886 – You mean you don’t superpowers William? You can’t enforce a “do not Read” demand?
Is Ralph Nader running again? If so i’d happily through away my vote! (not that im elligible)
875 Diogenes, that Miss Teen South Carolina sure makes a lotta sense to me, I reckon I could watch every speech she made in the House, she has such charisma and natural charms 😉
codger- here is an even worse one re McCain. “The success will be fairly easy” becomes “very difficult”.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ioy90nF2anI
sorry erytnicam-I thought my defunct and useless background in neurophysiology was known. I wanted to see if you going to pass!
centre-your loss on the winning bets is $50 and you make $61 on losing bets hence a $11 profit.
Centre – I can confirm that – the answer is: a) $11
My “Betty and Jim Learn Maths” explanation of your example:
You are holding a total of $111 in bets. You pay Adam back his $50 stake plus $50 winnings (1/1), total $100, leaving $11 profit in your bag – with which you buy your wife a bunch of flowers for tolerating your recidivism 🙂
Thanks Diogenes & JV.
JV, have you checked Sportingbet, the odds are very similar to what I had. So you have backed Obama. I hope you are right, he would be great for uniting people and hopefully getting the planet back on track.
Ha, some of you guys took the ‘rabid shitzu’ test and actually watched Ann Coulter!
Before anyone else has to go through that, can I recommend the sea-sickness tablets and dark glasses…they may help with the nausea! (oh yeah, don’t forget the earplugs, ‘coz that hacksaw blade screech can damage your hearing!)
As for the billious rumblings from the collective gut of the loopy right in the US over McCain’s impending nomination, it strikes me that the Republican party is being dragged kicking and screaming into the harsh reality that their beloved Imperial Republican Reich is in tatters and that the Democrats will be in charge of what’s left of the Empire. They’ll also be changing course, and this freaks out the nutters and fruitloops who’ve hung everything on the Praetorian Guard’s banners of Neconservatism and Reaganomics, both now lying shredded and discredited.
Watching that “sack of antlers” (as one blogger so graphically described her) Ann Coulter, fulminate herself into cartoonish caricature, (narrated by that other champion of free thought, Rush Limbaugh), will be the blood sport of the left for the next few months until she lies spent, exhausted, and absurdly irrelevent.
That’s when the poor rabid shitzu must be humanely ‘put down’.
Jaundiced view ,
you were mislead by Centre.
He disengenuously asked you to check his #782 but not my reply on #832
You correctly said the Bookie made a $11 profit as Centre had said on #782
If you read my #832 I ACKNOWLEDGE the Bookie makes a $11 profit !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
But my #832 blog then says if one single further bet is made of 450 on Clinton
(Centre’s example of the winner) then the Bookie LOSES $39 & owes WB $39
and that any further bets on Clinton only increases the Bookies liability to WB
I contended having a 1/2 bookie on this site accumulating a potential liability was inappropiate method to financially support William’s Blog
Centre has done a “Howardism”….leave out the other persons views
Blogers can read #832 & form their own views
The issue now is for us to come with $ ideas to support the Blog so it continues
bet is $50 not 450
868
The Finnigans
I find it amazing how few people actually realise what’s going on, and how they just assume it’s all “ignorant loathing lefties” being America haters! It’s like trying to hold more than one idea in your mind at once ie you can strongly disapprove of the direction America has taken and at the same time, actually see the positive, creative, and good things that exist in America.
But to the point of your post, yeah, the world’s largest economy is bloated on debt and addicted to foreign savings, and as the man once said: “what is unsustaibable must eventually come to an end”. Just when, and how suddenly, is the burning question.
The Chinese are getting creamed on their foreign reserves now that the US has dropped rates and the USD has all but disappeared down the S-bend, and their ‘sterilization’ process of converting USD into local currency is literally wiping off billions in value. They are not going to stand for this forever, and will be gradually diverting their reserves elsewhere, but not so quickly as to panic the horses and see a stampede away from US assets.
I noticed they’ve bought a slab of Rio Tinto the other day, and this is exactly the sort of process we shall see a lot more of, as the ‘unsustainable’ meets the colossal tide of cash they have to invest, anywhere, but in the USA.
Indeed, interesting times.
Ron, irrespective of who’s right about this, you’re being a pain in the arse.