Florida primaries thread

Voting has begun in today’s Florida primaries, the last to be held before Super Tuesday apart from Republican caucuses in Maine on Saturday. For refusing to play by the rules of the parties’ national committees, Florida has been stripped of the 210 delegates it would normally send to the Democratic national convention, along with half of its 114 Republican delegates. All 57 of the Republican delegates will be pledged to the winning candidate, whereas the Democratic primary amounts to nothing more than an opinion poll. Polls show John McCain and Mitt Romney neck-and-neck in the Republican race, with Rudy Giuliani looking very unlikely to pull off his Florida-first strategy.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,099 comments on “Florida primaries thread”

Comments Page 15 of 22
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  1. The 616 story is quite important. The meaning of 666 has been debated for millenia and is thought to identify the Antichrist. Nero is the most commonly mentioned name (Nero in Greek looks like 666 or something). More importantly, Muhammed is the other person it was meant to refer to (his name in Greek adds up to 666 using some weird nomenclature). Now wacky fundies who thought Muhammed was the devil because of the 666 thing have had to find another way to link 616 to Muhammed unsuccessfully.

    And 668 is the Neighbour of the Beast…

  2. By the way, I think Centre’s idea for a pretend “book” would be a fun way to donate to a worthy cause. It isn’t illegal because no money changes hands between any punter and a bookmaker. The “bets” merely become amounts we agree to donate. No law broken there that I can see.
    For a second opinion, perhaps we could ask Federal Police Commissioner Keelty his considered view of the law on the area. He’s fairly free with his opinions.

  3. Thanks Jaundiced V.

    The way it could work is that the losers only pay (pay William of course). Maybe you would like to keep a record of the bets? As I said I would be more than happy to update the prices.

  4. jaundiced view

    as a donation Centre’s idea is fine if the odds are pretend and no dividends can be gained by ANY donee

    He says “he cann’t keep the record because his wife will divorce him”

    am happy to keep a record
    and set pretend odds

  5. Diogenes 701 – and your earlier post about this was 686, the neighbour’s 668 re-arranged. Could there be some significance in this?

    All this talk about antichrists and neighbours of the beast makes me think we may be reading too many Romney and Huckabee speeches.

  6. Ron these are the prices:

    – Clinton 1/1

    – McCain 7/4

    – Obama 7/2

    – Romney 20/1

    – Huckabee 100/1

    – any other 100/1.

    You can be the first to make a bet? Then I would like to know what your prices would be?

  7. jaundiced view ,

    if this is fun then lets assume I lay it

    and you win at 4/1 odds ….do you get anything
    and if you lose at 4/1 odds…what does William get

    if we’re going to have a fair dinkum donation lets all be sure we’re talking the same lingo

  8. C’mon Ron, a two horse race, so I can have 5/1 for McCain right.

    REMEMBER. If your book shows a liability for the eventual winner, you must pay William!

    Are you sure you know what I am talking about???

  9. Centre you sure know how to ruin a good thing with ridiculous 5/1 odds for McCain

    YOU offer 5/1 odds for McCain

    jaunice…waiting for your thoughts

  10. Backtracking here…

    Centre, whatever is going on has my vague interest, but I can’t tell what’s going on. Is there a post where it is explained in any sort of detail?

  11. That’s right Ron – winners just get the honour and the glory – we can have an honour roll of winners. Llosers donate their bet amount to William – eg. in my case it will be $20 if Obama loses. I think the bets should be placed before Tuesday and only one bet per person. You have to pick from the current crop.
    There will be a disincentive to “bet” too big because the “bet” will be the promised donation if one loses. But the gamest mock “punter” will top the honour board with the biggest mock return on paper.

  12. jaundiced view …your understanding is fine by me

    Centre’s idea is he actually becomes the bookie and he pays out on winning bets to William which is not a donation

  13. If jv’s interpretation is correct and William confirms his acquiescence, I’ll take $20 on Obama at 7/2 with a $10 kicker on Bloomberg at 100/1. I’ll check back in the morning to see if it’s a goer.

  14. Ron – Yes, that’s OK – the only difference is you will need to use Centre’s odds if he is to pay William for those mock “bets” that win against him.

    I think he just wants to know, as an aside, what you think the odds should be given your opinion on who will win

  15. Regarding the 666 thing, I have some proof. I remember being amused many years ago by a poster for a TISM recording entitled “668 the neighbour of the beast”. My brother-in-law, who like many Chinese is supersticious about lucky numbers, showed off the number plate of his new car. The numbers on it were 668. Said brother-in-law lived next to an elderly Greek man named Nick.
    Regarding the on-going stoush some people here are having with ESJ. Am I correct in believing that ESJ is the son of the MP that had a falling out with Gorton? If so he’s a descendant of the St John who caused trouble for King Charles over ship money. That’s something to be proud of. But he wasn’t one of the glorious regicides – didn’t have the bottle for that.
    Anyway, regarding Eddy boy’s clear fascination with being beaten up by Beautiful Bolsheviks, I have to add an extra line to Lenin’s dictum. He sxaid that when the time comes to hand the capitalists they’ll be lining up to sell us the rope. He should have added that they’ll die with a rictus of passionate completion on their face. A win win all around I would have thought.

  16. I guess people can have more than one bet, ah Centre? Shouldn’t cause any problems.

    You’d better hope Diogenes doesn’t get Bloomberg up for your sake. You might have to do a bit of mock “laying off”!

  17. You said you as the bookie would pay out on winning bets to William at the wager multiplied by the odds

    and you as the bookie expected the punter to pay William the wager value if its a losing bet

    BUT jaundiced view said no money changed hands on a winning bet but the punter got the glory whereas the punter paid William his wager value on a losing bet

    So what I said was correct in #719…you did not read it carefully

    I think jaundiced view is more appropriate method as a fun donation because

    Your blog 712 specifically says 5/1 odds for McCain..novice odds that I doubt you would honor

  18. Ron – on Centre’s odds board, reproduced below, and on his proposal, if someone has a bet on Obama and wins, then Centre says he will donate the amount “bet” times 7/2, which is x 3 1/2 – so a $10 mock ‘bet’ winning would result in a $35 donation by Centre. Of course, if the mock ‘bet’ loses, the losing ‘punter’ donates the value of the bet, or $10.

    [- Clinton 1/1

    – McCain 7/4

    – Obama 7/2

    – Romney 20/1

    – Huckabee 100/1

    – any other 100/1]

  19. 725
    Robert Bollard

    Nah, Snidely just plagairised the name from some dead pollywaffle ‘coz he couldn’t invent one for himself.

    I like the “rictus of passionate completion”, it reminds me of the rockstar, the doorknob and the uproar!

  20. Rt. Hon. bilbo of PB
    just donated 20 smackers on my @711 (i put my monet where my orifice is)

    from your @724 i presume you are going for hilary

    adam will be pleased 🙂

  21. Jaundiced V,

    Do me a favour, just ignore Ron for the time being. As I have said in my relevant posts, if I accept a bet, I will make a post confirming such. You can bet as often as you like, even upto the election in November. And of course betting limits would apply.

    However I can’t spend practically every night checking for bets. If you would like to keep track of all bets offered and accepted, then I am happy to frame the prices.

    The only proviso is that I reserve the right to be free of any liability that the book may (not that it should) incur.:)

  22. Centre – I presume that after the general election you will look at the overall mock ‘book’ and do a tally of all ‘bets’ to arrive at your total winning or losing position to calculate your donation, if any?

    Do you want to keep the “book” open after Tuesday?

    Let’s look at it fresh tomorrow.

  23. Centre- We crossed posts there – OK that answers the questions. I might need a hand to keep a record of all the bets though as I am away a fair bit. Will start off though – Diogenes and myself so far!

  24. WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. employers unexpectedly cut 17,000 non-farm jobs in January, the first time in nearly 4-1/2 years that U.S. payrolls shrank as fading construction and manufacturing sectors reflected the economy’s waning momentum.

    …eeeeeeek! And the crunchers were looking for +70k jobs

    Mr Market ain’t gunna be overly pleased, and futures are tanking atm

  25. OY JV
    cant you see that @732 i donated 20 smackers as per my bet @711
    please include me in record 🙂

    (all bets should be donations-then centre has a true “BOOK”)

  26. Sorry Gusface – updated now:

    Mock bet/donation pledges so far “held’ by Centre:

    1Gusface – $10 Clinton 1/1; $10 McCain 7/4
    Diogenes – $20 Obama 7/2; $10 Bloomberg 100/1
    JV – $20 Obama 7/2

  27. From looking at it, I see three potential issues.

    1. Centre is a big loser money wise (but that is for him to determine, not me)

    2. This is a blog, where people don’t need registered accounts. By the end of the year, many may be gone, or changed names, or moved on in some way. Hell, by then William might have decided he has lost enough of his hairline and close comments as Bryan did last year. Conditions and various factors change, whereas when betting with a bookie they don’t – the contract is you have paid the money and get it back plus more if you win, don’t if you lose.

    3. It is an honour thing, and when there is no contract things can only turn messy when people don’t pay up. Which creates problems in itself, especially given I imagine Centre will feel obliged to pay all the money promised – how can that be fair?

    I would tentatively suggest that rather than do this, we set up an unofficial not-for-money tipping comp here, and aside to this people can publicly state how much they put in with a registered bookmaker (ie sportingbet), and how much they would be willing to donate of any winnings (for example, put $20 on Obama and announce all profit will go to PB.) That way you are bound in the similar ‘honour’ way, but the potential for injustice on others isn’t there.

    I’m all for donating money when William says he is short – and have in the past – but this seems like a messy way to do it, especially given the payout would be in ten months from now. It might be a bit different if this was a bet on an election to be held next week, then again it still has the same murky waters.

    Still, I could be in the minority, so sleep on it and see how it looks in the morning.

  28. 742
    Ron

    Not if Ben and his helicopter fly in again this morning with another 100B to ‘ease’ the pain!

    Holy mother of christ, it’s something to behold!

    Futures just slipped down the stairs after being well up, but look, the daily picture is mostly noise and signifies little. In the longer term, it’s going to get much uglier, and that’s looking more and more certain from all useful indicators.

    This is just another reminder of what happens when you let cowboys run your country into the dirt.

  29. Steve and Gusface – I guess so, but the way it is now, ‘punters’, if they ‘win’ their bet, get the thrill of winning the option of not having to donate. I’m sure many still will donate, after they have basked in their success loudly here. I will if I am so lucky. The honour of being on the success board will induce many to donate more I’m sure. We can come up with a prestigious name for the honour board of those who got it right – all of that.
    The other point is, if its all donated up front, all the ‘bets’ would probably be similar.

  30. 745
    Max

    Yeah, agree Max.

    I just cough up when I have a win and so I never feel bad about chewing William’s bandwidth!

    Hey, I wonder if Snidely ever ‘contributes’? (Apart from the snide insults, that is! LOL)

  31. Ron

    Futures just went red, and it has that ‘fugly’ feel to it after being all up on the usual takeover crap.

    I’ll stick with it for a bit.

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