South Carolina Democratic primary thread

Australia Day festivities prevented me putting this thread up in a timely fashion, but better late than never. Barack Obama has polled 55 per cent of the vote in today’s Democratic primary in South Carolina, which has the country’s third highest proportion of African-Americans behind Mississippi and Louisiana. Hillary Clinton took second place with 27 per cent, ahead of John Edwards on 18 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

462 comments on “South Carolina Democratic primary thread”

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  1. KR, Ron, davidoff, Don’t you worry about that, George’s language is all his own:

    “I can press when there needs to be pressed; I can hold hands when there needs to be — hold hands.” –George W. Bush, on how he can contribute to the Middle East peace process, Washington, D.C., Jan. 4, 2008

  2. Glen @ 338.

    Re the timing.
    Election held 24th November.
    Formal Delaration of McEwen after recount 20th December.
    Next two to three weeks sunshine, lollipops and rainbows for all (especially Labor supporters!!).
    Timing of the appeal is obviously within legal time limits.
    Therefore, not an unreasonable delay.
    Liberals can suffer in their jocks!

    ESJ, @ 376

    An interesting side issue is that there are many rumours that Fran was about to pull the pin anyway. Is it ethical for her to challenge the result if she intends to retire immediately afterwards? Remember, her pension will go backwards if she stays too long (Costello has the same issue BTW).

  3. GG how could you question the integrity of Fran

    She was a key vote that got Lord Nelson the leadership which shows how pollitically astute she is

  4. GG,

    I think the McEwen type problem will be one of the Liberals biggest problems. Quite a few of the Howard class of 96 have the pension in the bag and have little reason to hang around in opposition. I can think of Dana Vaile, Peter Lindsay, Bailey for starters.

  5. ESJ,

    The Libs problem is not just about the “never wases”. It is the panopoly of leadership wannabees that are stinking up the system.

    I just don’t know what the Liberals stand for any more.

    And neither does anyone else.

    Inevitably, senior blood will be spilled and it won’t be pretty. It is just a matter of time.

  6. Betting odds on the next VP. Very difficult to pick because of so many contingencies.

    Bill Richardson 1.67
    Barack Obama 2.85
    Evan Bayh 5.00
    John Edwards 5.00
    Tim Pawlenty 7.00
    Mitt Romney 8.00
    Rudy Giuliani 8.00
    Joe Biden 9.00
    Chris Dodd 11.00
    Hillary Clinton 11.00
    Dennis Kucinich 16.00
    Sam Brownback 21.00
    Newt Gingrich 26.00
    Duncan Hunter 36.00
    John McCain 36.00
    Mike Gravel 36.00
    Mike Huckabee 36.00
    Tom Tancredo 41.00
    Ron Paul 51.00
    Tommy Thompson 51.00
    Condoleeza Rice 101.00

  7. #407
    That sound-byte at the 15 mins moment is a phrase that has been building over the last two or three weeks inside the Obama campaign machine. The crowd is roaring because he is building on a message “Yes We Can” – and in this context “we” means the American people with Obama. I should note that this is in stark contrast to Hillary usage of the word ‘we’ which in general is a reference to ‘me (Hillary) and Bill’.

  8. Old Ted’s got zing alright, but Barak Obama just puts the whole audience into orbit.

    He’s sure got a powerful mojo workin’, ain’t that the truth!

    Funny connection between him and JFK, who’d helped get funding for Kenyan students to travel to the US. One of whom was his father. Nice narrative touch.

    The Kennedy endorsement is poetic, powerful, and somehow makes the Clinton ‘Jesse Jackson’ line look even more squalid than it is.

  9. 410

    It’s a rhetorical rocket, and Obama just blasts them off to another place. Just watching it, hearing the essential truth of what he’s saying about the tired old Washington game, is so uplifting I have to remember I’m not American!

    And yes, Hill-Billy are the ‘royal plural’ and looking tackier with each passing week.

  10. GG,

    I have a confession to make (and Glen will be disappointed in me) I think Kevin Rudd has actually had a pretty good start. Its only impressions – but I think the homeless thing (if he delivers) is excellent and the national IR thing (if he stares down vested state interests) will be an enormous queue. If he delivers on these and has a good budget (ie generally tightens up on subsidies, bribes etc) he will be flying.

    But maybe I am just a star.ucker who falls for the leader.

  11. #414
    What I’m really interested in is the amount of campaign funds that Obama is receiving from outside of the great USofA – and how his numbers on that front compare to the others.

  12. 419

    it’s not legal, is my understanding, but others more well informed can probably spell out chapter and verse.

  13. ESJ- Thanks for the Alan Clark diaries tip. Which one should I read first? The “In Power” one came out first but the second volume “Into Politics” covers an earlier era.

  14. Diogenes the in power is better – especially the stuff about what ministry he might get and his attitude to thatcher.

    They are great because he does tell the truth – he was a randy old goat and the diaries demonstrate the obsession of politicians first and foremost with pecking order.

    2 b sure Ron but hey if they deliver on those he will deserve the ticks. My hope is that he (through Therese is so loaded and doesnt need the money) that now that he has got in he is going to do the things he believes needs to be done and is happy to have 5 or 6 years and is really fussed about the consequences for the party/unions etc etc and wants to do something worthwhile whilst he has the chance to.

  15. Kevin O7 intends to make some changes to the budget, hence funding cuts but guess what defence is not going to be touched.
    Kevin 07 is a man which lets the media run his agenda, this morning when asks whether the Bradman question will be taken out of the citzenship test he said it was news to him and it would not happen. Kevin 07 should be Dud 08- simple.

  16. ESJ,

    I hope you are not suggesting “bungy” jumping without a rope for our concern troll That would be very unmellow.

  17. Dissappointed with people who have no conviction or vision or will to do things which will have profound impact on peoples’ lives, that is what i am disspointed with. Today it is all spin and no vision, inquiries which come to nothing and caving into the powerful classes time after time.
    Always worries me when someone as rightwing as yourself supports Rudd.

  18. #429
    GG said:


    I hope you are not suggesting “bungy” jumping without a rope for our concern troll That would be very unmellow.

    GG – I’m sorry – but I have not been following the thread. But if we are talking about ESJ taking a plunge I’m up for it. But I should confess – I’m only interested on scientific grounds.

  19. actually there has been too much lefty love on this site so in the interest of fairness here goes (btw marky are you the American Democrat or the dissaffected labor memeber tonight?)

    rudd is elmer fudd and speaks crud like a dud and lives in mud without a bud has a belly like a pud worships a false gud

    but my dont the people like that nice mr wudd 🙂

  20. People will like anything he does whilst the business elite and the media darlings continue to publish great things about him in their papers each day. But if he does anything the corporates elites don’t like watch the media turn on him, watch Murdoch lynch him.
    Already starting to see a narrow and useless set of policies being considered on Climate Change.

  21. 437

    cute line isn’t it!

    I’m surprised the Hill-Billy show hasn’t got Monica (in a blue dress) to ‘endorse’ Bill…ah, sorry, Hillary.

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