South Carolina Democratic primary thread

Australia Day festivities prevented me putting this thread up in a timely fashion, but better late than never. Barack Obama has polled 55 per cent of the vote in today’s Democratic primary in South Carolina, which has the country’s third highest proportion of African-Americans behind Mississippi and Louisiana. Hillary Clinton took second place with 27 per cent, ahead of John Edwards on 18 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

462 comments on “South Carolina Democratic primary thread”

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  1. @ 349 -[but not as good as KR. You’re right, he shouldn’t have a chance at his age, and with his attitudes, but look at the others!]
    KR – To clarify I mean McCain, not you – I’d vote for your attitudes any time, whatever your age!

  2. Glen.
    firstly I am a bit surprised that you would deem me to be a Labor party member – Adam would have a stroke.
    And secondly I apologise if calling Brendan a complete twat upsets you – what about poor-performing sacrificial lambn whio is completely out of his depth and lends no credibility to what is clearly a decimated political party?

  3. 348
    Andrew – a 100,000+ voter seat coming down to 7 votes, thats highly contested and being so close warranted a recount to suffice due process. Also Bailey stood by her declaration that should she lose the final recount that would be that and i believe her over the ALP anyday especially when the ALP agreed to stand by the decision but then because it lost 3 months later goes and challengers sore losers after considerable due process Andrew.

    Also what about the hundreds of votes marked 1 for Bailey and otherwise blank id say thats a clear intention of the voter? No use arguing you wont acknowledge any of my points end of story.

  5. Glen don’t you think it ironic that the Libs ran on a campaign of “ooooooh, labor has 70% union officials on it’s frontbench” (a bollocks stats by the way, but let’s run with it for the time being) yet they make an ex-union boss their new leader?
    Hilarious!

  7. Ron @ 354 – [Obama on the nuke codes rather than either Hilary or McCain]
    Of course it’s safer – How not? McCain is gung-ho and beholden to the far-right nutters, and Clinton is loudly and often for Israel, making conflict with her in charge more likely. Obama is more rational and stands for a change to the old warmongering carry-on of the past few decades.

  8. Ron – not that much will change – the differences between the candidates in practice would be a matter of very fine degree

  9. Many threads ago I was asked to put up my prices for the next president, they were: Clinton 5/4, Obama 3/1, McCain 5/1, for the big three.

    Currently on Betfair, where I am led to believe most of the bets executed are from Americans, the odds are: Clinton 2.6, Obama 4.1, McCain 4.7. Very similar to what I had framed three or so weeks ago.

    I believe that I was the first to declare on this site that if Obama or even Clinton were elected as the democrat candidate, a republican would win the presidency.

    Also, I am on record as saying that there is no way the Americans will be electing a black president whose middle name is “Hussein” 7 years after 9/11.

    I stand by my claims, although Hillary should go close.

    Regarding the recount in McEwan, it is astonishing that some people are incapable of numbering squares in chronological sequence. They should dead-set not let you out of year 10 unless you know how to vote. So says Centre.

  14. I think Romney will beat McCain for the Repug spot.

    It was all good getting hairy and picking that idiot Bush 7 years ago….but the economy was all rosy back then.

    When the economy is tanking, Republicans will revert back to the only real God they worship…..Money.

    Romney will edge out McCain because he is vastly superior on the economy than McCain.

  17. Glen at 350:

    So your argument is that they are wasting taxpayers money and time by using the court system?

    What did you think of John Howard wasting the taxpayers money and time by living in Kirribilli?

    How about in causing millions in compensation payments to Rau, Alvarez and Haneef through sheer incompetence and corruption?

    At least *try* and present a balanced argument.

  18. The Lib supporters never let the inconvenience facts get in the way.

    McEwen challenge.The ALP in November said after the recount, it would take ‘advice’ (legal).It neither said it would or would not challenge.
    To suggest the ALP in Nov. ruled out a challenge is simply untrue

    For the benefit of ‘left’ blogers here (but not ‘right’ ones), the facts are:
    Labor won the first recount by about 3 votes & the Libs the 2nd one by 7 votes

    There were numerous rejected votes which both partys challenged in both recounts.

    In the first recount , the AEC AREA manager made the final decision on disputed votes based on HIS interpretation of the Act.

    In the second recount , the AEC STATE manager made the final decision on disputed votes based on HIS interpretation of the Act.

    A Court Ruling is justified despite Liberal whingers , to decide which Public Servant’s interpretation of the Act is correct because one ‘interpretation favors Labor and the other the Libs

  21. The Lib supporters never let the inconvenience facts get in the way.

    McEwen challenge.The ALP in November said after the recount, it would take ‘advice’ (legal).It neither said it would or would not challenge.
    To suggest the ALP in Nov. ruled out a challenge is simply untrue

    For the benefit of ‘left’ blogers here (but not ‘right’ ones), the facts are:
    Labor won the first recount by about 3 votes & the Libs the 2nd one by 7 votes

    There were numerous rejected votes which both partys challenged in both recounts.

    In the first recount , the AEC AREA manager made the final decision on disputed votes based on HIS interpretation of the Act.

    In the second recount , the AEC STATE manager made the final decision on disputed votes based on HIS interpretation of the Act.

    A Court Ruling is justified despite Liberal whingers , to decide which Public Servant’s interpretation of the Act is correct because one ‘interpretation favors Labor and the other the Libs

  22. Anyway, think of how much money we saved by Howard not winning government again.

    They would have appealed the Haneef case for sure to cover up Andrews incompetence (which they would have lost), and that would have been taxpayers money not the Libs money.

    However, we still have to cop the cost of paying compensation to Haneef due to the Libs. This should be repaid from the Lib coffers.

  24. Asanque, excellent question?

    Because where you are going to frame bookmaking prices, you must reflect demand from the punting public. Otherwise, if you are going to offer odds according to your opinion, you may as well punt.

    If you did offer prices as a bookie based on your belief of “true odds” as they say, you will get truly creamed if you are wrong! So you would punt instead.

  25. Be afraid!

    GWBush:

    “We’ll come out of this economic uncertainty,” he said in closing. “The United States leads when it comes to freedom and peace, and it is strong.”

    …whichever way Bush ‘leads’, run the other way!

    But pray, what on earth does it mean? The US “leads when it comes to freedom and peace”? By what metric? For whom does the Bush troll?

    Talk about mindless cant and jingoism, smattered with funky-jive argot like “it is strong”.

    This sentence sounds like something a high school kid wrote: “Our basketball team leads when it comes to winning, and it is strong”

    Not only is the statement of questionable veracity, it’s couched in such adolescent terms that it makes you wonder how the el supremo of the free world can talk such dribble.

    Impoverished in thought and word, that’s our George.

  26. Who cares about McEwen? No doubt Fran Bailey will/would quit in 2010 in any event. Either party would press an advantage if they see one when it comes to recounts etc.

    Of course on government advertising, Labor would never do that now they are in government would they?

    I do admit though it will be a very good sign if Kevin Rudd and Gillard stare down the states and insist on a unitary national IR system. The signs seem promising in that regard and we will know on Friday.

  27. By the way, I have been a bookie in my time, at Wentworth Park greyhounds, and absolutely loved it. The problem however was that the expenses were a killer, therefore the rewards did not justify the work involved.

  28. Centre: You have the characteristics of a good bookie, an ability to set market odds and differentiate them from your own views 🙂

    I believe the betting markets rarely are wrong and at present reflect my view of where the parties stand prety accurately.

    I can’t see the Republicans winning for a variety of reasons:

    1. No credible candidates. McCain is the only one who stands a chance in my view, but at 71, he will turn off many voters.

    2. The turnouts at the candidate nominations have overwhelmingly been in favour of the Democrats.

    3. George Bush has done irreparable damage to the Republican cause.

    The only item in their favour is that McCain is close to both Hillary and Obama in the head to head polls.

    No other republican is even competitive.

    Why do you think the Repubs will beat Hillary or Obama?

  29. KR –
    you are insulting the average adolescent high-schooler comparing them to George. they are infinitely more highly functioning.

  30. You can tell Glen has a lot more fun being an Australian politics troll, rather than trolling American politics. His heart doesn’t seem in it unless he can bash the ALP. Which candidate has the most union support in America? He can always live vicariously through that I guess

  33. Asanque you should back Hillary. I just feel that she is strongly disliked generally which may ultimately cost the democrats. I could be wrong. It should be close, but I would prefer to back McCain at the odds.

    I do not think Obama can win for the simple reasons that I have already stated. I like Edwards, he performed extremely well four years ago and he appears very capable to me. But he will not get the nomination. The democrats may live to regret it?

  35. There’s cant and jingoism and then there’s raw numbers:

    And though he declared that the state of the union would remain strong, as tradition obliges presidents to do, only 19 percent of Americans think the country is generally on the right track, as low a number as any recorded.

    …but I guess someone didn’t bother to tell him that! LOL

  37. 379
    jen

    Ouch! Oh well, another bit of hyperbolic rant shot down in flames! (You’re too cruel!)

    But really, who writes this turgid crap? OK, Bush can hardly string five words together coherently, but they coach him in front of the auto-cue for hours, so you’d think they’d get someone decent to actually craft it.

    Wouldn’t you?

    Oh, that’s right, they had that mad neocon David Frum pulling the puppets mouthparts at one stage: “axis of evil” came out!

    Yep that’s right, one axis is now talking its way into oil for fuel (nuclear) trade-offs, while the other is running a proxy government (or near to it) in Baghdad.

    Big talk, big blundering action in the Iraq/Iran sphere. At least Condi and the diplomats got Bush’s barking mad Bolten out of the way long enough not to actually nuke North Korea, and talk some sense into them.

    Come to think of it, I actually liked Frum’s book in the most perverse way: it showed just how utterly deranged the Neocon’s actually are, and dispelled any doubts that they were in any way shape or form, talking sense.

    I highly recommend it, but beware! Don’t let the kids read it before bedtime…it’s sure to induce nightmares. Just ask the Iraqis.

  39. like apostrohe’s…ah, another one!!!!

    Shapiro in Salon, sums it up:

    The best rhetorical flourish of the evening, though, was not a product of the Bush speechwriting team but came from Obama. In a video released by his campaign, Obama said, “Each year, as we watch the State of the Union, we see half the chamber rise to applaud the President and half the chamber stay in their seats … Imagine if next year was different. Imagine if next year, the entire nation had a president they could believe in.”

    A year from now, a different president (probably a woman, an African-American, a Mormon or a former POW) will be giving a maiden speech from the well of the House of Representatives. The nation will still be mired in Iraq and may well be battling to emerge from a recession. But one thing is certain: Nostalgia for the good old days when George W. Bush gave a State of the Union will be muted if not non-existent.

  40. There was talk about Dick Morris earlier, and Christopher Hitchens does a nice little mention of him:

    This calculated willingness to shop on both sides of the street of racial politics was actually analyzed quite shrewdly by Dick Morris, the former consigliere of the gruesome twosome, in conversation with Sean Hannity last week. The Clintons, he thought, would be quite happy to lose big to the “black vote” in South Carolina. It would enable them to signal that they were the ones to stem the flow of the color tide. Morris’ host protested that this seemed a touch cynical. Morris jovially assured him that he knew the people he was talking about.

    For Hitchen’s addicted readers:

    http://www.slate.com/id/2182938/

  41. The latest Rasmussen Poll has Obama closing the gap on Hilary national to 8%.

    And another thing on the “Aussie front”*:
    The election was just over two months ago on November 24th and Rudd was only sworn in on Dec 3. That was only 58 days ago. Anyone else feel that it seems like a lot longer? I start to want to tell the Government to get on with it as nothing seems to have changed and then I realise how short a time it has actually been.

    Also that means the McEwan appeal is not really that late. It will interesting to see Nelson fight the by-election if there is one.

  43. I was wondering why this blog had a mung bean collective feel to it (after all even Adam has been scared off and I think he is still number 1 commenter) but then I realised of the last 90 comments 2 people managed to monopolise 20 of the comments and most of those comments seem to be of the America bad variety level of analysis. That’s OK but it does get tedious.

  44. Centre at 383

    I agree that Hillary is the best bet at present.

    It’d be a brave bet on Obama and although I hope he will win, the cynic in me says he will get close, but not close enough.

    You can get great odds on any republican to win, but the 1.56 on the Democrats is the safe bet.

    I don’t mind McCain, but I think his age will be the big factor.

    Then again, I don’t profess to be an expert in US politics.

  49. When I agree with David Brooks, I agree with David Brooks, and this one is with finger on the zietgiest and an eye on history:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/29/opinion/29brooks.html?hp

    By the way, that Hitchens’ article quoted above is a zinger for anyone who’s never gotten under the bonnet of the Hill-Billy machine and seen the dirty engine that runs it.

    It’s a corker! Hitchens does moral outrage like nobody I know and concludes that the Clinton theme of change is more than suspect:

    Anyone who thinks that this equals “change” is a fool, and an easily fooled fool at that.

  50. 396 MF
    George /Glen. Same mentality.
    although Glen runs rings around GWB whenn it comes to erudite discourse.
    Sadly.
    Given that one of them is the leader of one of the most powerful governments on earth.
    Unbelievable.

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