Morgan: 58.5-41.5

Morgan, which ended its recent poor run at the federal level with a 53.5-46.5 result on the eve of the election, has produced the first post-election poll on voting intention. It shows Labor enjoying a honeymoon boost to 58.5-41.5, with a primary vote lead of 49 per cent to 36.5 per cent. Newspoll will presumably return to the fold in the new year.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,031 comments on “Morgan: 58.5-41.5”

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  1. Glen: Your arguments in relation to AWB are specious.

    Whilst the former government may not have been criminally culpable they were instead grossly negligent.

    You are also completely incorrect in relation to the legality of the US invasion, but this is neither the time nor the place.
    History books will be the judge, and Bush and Howard will get the legacy they deserve.

    Howard being kicked out of his own seat and the massive electoral loss should stun the Liberals.

    Falling back into old lies and self justifications will only see the Liberals relegated to obscurity.

  3. Poss
    Little bit of trivia -The Canadian PM was the last Foreign Leader to address the House (and consequently the Howard gvt)

    Maybe the gods knew something 😉

  4. I challenge anyone to read the FULL transcripts of the ‘Cole Inquiry’ in the AWB
    and not draw the conclusion that Downer probably knew of the 10% freight bribe to Saddam’s family.

    Howard has to get the benefit of the doubt notwithstanding he further meetings involving Howard , Downer , Iraq specialists in the Iraq contracts within foreign Affairs and AWB

  5. oh Glen I would so much like to argue the mix of incompetence, lies and evil that was the Howard years with you – but Adam will tell me off, and history is written by the winners and we wont need your help thank you very much.

  6. oh and of course Adam would tell me off if I got into a debate that doesn’t interest him and I would hate to do that I want Adam and possum to concentrate of their caged death match of polling number things

  8. Ron LOL ‘probably’ see you have no evidence mate you bewdy!

    History is written by academics most of whom are left of centre, but you wont say winners for long.

    Storm clouds arising out of the US they drop rates but still Wall Street falls, Wayne Swan has probably got to get us through a US Recession good luck Rooster you’ll need it 😉

  10. Hi all 🙂

    Been a while…

    Glen Swanny and Co will blame the transition to Climate Change economy for any recession they will preside over.

  13. Hi All,

    Does anyone have a map of Queensland electorates for the State assembly that are coloured in according to current political representation, i.e. electorates coloured red for labor, green for nats etc. I am doing a bit of demographic research and this would make things so much easier to visualise.

  14. Glen

    If we do have any economic downturn due to the US it will mean a slowdown in growth.

    This will take pressure off of interest rates, may even lead to interest rate cuts.

    Don’t be too full of glee. It could be the making of Wayne Swan.

  16. Antony Green #839 says

    I’m with Adam. Track back through elections, and 2007 has produced a very normal looking result. As often occurs, one state stuck out against a trend, in this case WA. The swings were all pretty evenly distributed, with obvious stand outs like Dawson, Leichhardt and Wentworth. Most of the outliers fall under the category ‘circumstances’ to my eye.

    Ron says; the Labor wins with big swings were
    Longman 10.3%
    Dawson 13.2%
    Forde 14.4%
    Petrie 9.5%
    Blair 10.2%
    Leichardt 14.3%

    Antony what are the ‘circumstances’ you refer to ??
    I do not regard these huge swings as normal unless one invokes the ‘parochial Q’ld factor from a low Q’ld 2004 base *(which was A contributor)

  18. ABC on line

    Bilyk takes sixth Senate spot for Labor

    Posted 31 minutes ago

    The Labor Party has officially won a third Tasmanian Senate seat, allowing newcomer Catryna Bilyk to enter Parliament.

    The Electoral Commission announced official Senate results today.

    The ALP’s Nick Sherry was the first re-elected, followed by the Liberals’ Richard Colbeck.

    The Greens’ Bob Brown was also returned, along with the ALP’s Carol Brown and the Liberals’ David Bushby.

    The ALP snatched the sixth Senate spot from the Liberal Party.

    It had been widely tipped that Ms Bilyk, a former union official and Labor staffer, would win the sixth spot.

    The spot was previously held by the Liberal Party’s long-time Senator John Watson, who was dropped from the ticket earlier this year.

  21. Little bit of trivia -The Canadian PM was the last Foreign Leader to address the House (and consequently the Howard gvt)

    Maybe the gods knew something

    A further little bit of trivia…

    Jason Koutsoukis, Age journalist, who wrote the ball-busting story on how he went to “a lavish ministerial suite” of offices in Parliament House to view the “Gillard Dirt File” and whose article was quoted to devastating effect in the last debate on the (then) government “Dirt Unit” was the last person slagged-off under parliamentary privelege duringthe oward government.

    At 5pm on the last day of sitting one Mr. Secker, the Liberal member for Barker rose to address the House in an adjournment debate, thus:

    Mr SECKER (Barker) (4.59 pm)—It is somewhat
    ironic that I am following the member for Lowe because
    nine years ago we walked together for our first
    day at parliament. So it is very interesting and ironic
    and I suppose we both hope these are not our last
    speeches. Can I point out that the Deputy Leader of the
    Opposition today suggested that someone might be
    thinking that Jason Koutsoukis, the journalist, made
    something up. Can I say to the parliament he made
    something up in reference to me some 18 months ago
    concerning whom I supposedly support.
    The SPEAKER—Order! It being 5.00 pm, the debate
    is interrupted.
    House adjourned at 5.00 pm

    … adjourned forever, as far as the Howard government was concerned.

    There’s gotta be kharma in there somewhere. If anything made plain the writing on the wall it was that debate brought about earlier on in the afternoon by Jason’s article.

    Costello bellowed.

    Howard needed suspension of standing orders to speak without interruption.

    Gillard was calm and serene.

    Anthony Albanese was chucked out.

    Kevin Rudd got up and gave back to Costello, Abbott and Howard as good as he got.

    And the public became more convinced than ever that there was indeed a government Dirt Unit. That conviction caused more than a little of the government’s subsequent spin and bile during the campaign proper to wash up against barren shores, fall on deaf ears or piss against the wind (pick your metaphor).

    And all because the Dirt Unit that had been feeding Koutsoukis for so long – since January – went one smear too far and pissed-off its messenger.

    Then he wrote it all up.

  22. Unemployment?

    There will be plenty of employment in the near future, due to infrastructure projects that are currently being assessed.

    Nothing like a bit of old fashioned nation building to lead us out of a recession.

  23. Scaper the utilities workers of NSW will need it once the government sells Country Energy etc…

    How do ALP voters feel about this?

  24. John

    I’m far from impressed on the issue of selling utilities, this will come back to bite us in the future.

    It’s like…well let’s sell off every utility and when alternate technologies come on line, this could have the ability to be detrimental to these developments.

    Adaptability at the cost of compensation or something like the Telstra debacle.

  27. Glen says:
    “History is written by academics most of whom are left of centre, but you wont say winners for long.”

    Good old misguided Glen, if by being left of centre you mean that academics research hard empirical data, and don’t rely on hyperbole and neo-conservative propaganda, then yes, I guess the plea is guilty, guvnor.

  29. Speaking of hard empirical data, the rain continues to fall in Queensland, good rain in dam catchments, Labor has done it again.

    And yes, what a momentous day, AEC declares Bennelong, Rattus Rattus now officially PREVIOUS, oh joy of joys, hallelujah.

  30. My point was I wanted to guage the feeling of Labor supporters to Mr Iemma’s proposals for aren’t Labor supporters keen on keeping assets in the hands of governments?

  31. Runawake #975
    There is a 2% difference between the Vic governments AAA rating and a top 200 Company on the ASX

    This differential PLUS the net profit margin represents the cost between Vic Government debt funding for infrasructure VS private equity funding (less private sector efficiency savings)

    The argument in favor of privatisation seems more based on ideology than finance

    The occasional blackouts still continue either way

  33. JoM

    From my point of view the only thing Govts should own is the means of delivery.

    Telstra – Copper and Fibre
    Electricity – Wires, power poles ect.
    Water – Pipes

    Who connects, retails, and distributes the stuff is irrelevant. Just as long as its a level playing field for all.

  36. JoM, It’s a bit more complicated now, I’d suggest, though largely I’d agree with ruawake. The complications arise from how we’re going to need to do things differently, and I mean, a whole lot differently, due to climate change. For example, there was the report recently (can’t recall where) of an entire new suburb which is fundamentally self sufficient in relation to water and pretty much drought proof, built by the private sector. I know from him indoors work, ecologically sustainable architecture, that there are creative solutions available, which have not yet been fully explored, in terms of the built environment, for instance. Very exciting possibilities if there are the right policy settings, which I think (though I’m not biased or anything!) that Rudd and co. are capable of mostly getting pretty much right.

  38. Possum, you silly bugger, what are you doing planting petunias? Whatever happened to pineapples, and mangoes, and bananas, and pawpaws?

  39. I see Bolt has got on the Julia bandwagon:
    http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22909219-5000117,00.html

    “JULIA Gillard is already looking like Australia’s first female prime minister as she tries out Kevin Rudd’s chair for size.
    Put serious money on Gillard becoming our first female prime minister.”

    BUt then he makes sure his blog takes a different view:

    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/gillard_talks_about_gillard_doing/#commentsmore

    “Julia Gillard says it was nothing special:
    JULIA Gillard may be making political history today, but the first woman to lead the country since federation says it will be “business as usual”.
    And “business as usual” involved an awful lot of interviews saying it was “business as usual” – so many that you’d wonder how much business was actually done.”

  42. Greens could win sixth Senate seat in Victoria on Lib preferences. Latest counting looks like guarranteeing Libs 3 seats in Vic with the help of all sorts of minor party above line feeds. The ABC vote distributer shows third ALP candidate Feeney only about 5000 votes above a quota with the assumed 100% above the line distribution in the last elimination of FF. Nominal ABC quotas are Lib 1.056 ALP 1.013 and Greens .930. Assuming about 5% (150,000) vote below line these votes will reduce both Lib and ALP % compared with Greens. The result might well be say Lib 1.04, ALP .995 and Greens .965. All Lib above line preferences will go to Greens. If the overall split of Lib surplus is 90% to Greens and 10% to ALP then Greens would win last spot by about 400 votes. With Feeney being from the Labor Unity and perhaps not popular with other ALP blocks, this increases the
    likely leakage of ALP votes under the line to Greens. This scenario would really be a test for the way in which surplus votes are calculated in Senate as between the main parties and preferences coming from minor parties which has been subject of various comment on these threads.

  43. Glen’s gone a bit quiet. You O.K.? Howard did concede with some grace. Not much consolation, I know, but think of the enormous pleasure it has provided to so many of your fellow country men and women. Oh, O.K., maybe not such a good idea.

  46. Looking at Bowman the Rejected at Preliminary Scrutiny for pre polls is very very low at only 34 from 6422.

    This may be interesting to keep an eye on. 😉

  47. I notice when Howard conceded today he still couldn’t bring himself to say her name:

    “It was very long campaign and it was a tough campaign and I have no complaints,” Mr Howard told the ceremony.

    “The Labor Party won the seat fairly and squarely.

    What not even a Ms McKew campaigned very hard and I wish her well??

  49. Maybe its time for a new saying in the Oz lexicon – You’ve been Maxined of maybe just Maxed.

    This applies to anyone who is told to go forth and mutiply when you have overstayed your welcome. 😛

  50. ruawake, I think it has to “maxined”.

    And the definition would need to include something about overstaying your welcome despite everyone you know telling you it’s time to leave.

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