Morgan: 58.5-41.5

Morgan, which ended its recent poor run at the federal level with a 53.5-46.5 result on the eve of the election, has produced the first post-election poll on voting intention. It shows Labor enjoying a honeymoon boost to 58.5-41.5, with a primary vote lead of 49 per cent to 36.5 per cent. Newspoll will presumably return to the fold in the new year.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,031 comments on “Morgan: 58.5-41.5”

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  2. Glen, come on . . .

    You are fatuously ignoring the fact that 5.4M chose the ALP and 5.2M chose the coalition and 3M chose someone else. A healthy majority of that 3M preferred to take the ALP as second best.

    Hence the TPP:

    Liberal/National Coalition 5,770,710
    Australian Labor Party 6,477,086

    Australia is represented by the party most favoured by 53% of its population

  4. Well Glen the moment you come up with a system that is flawless let us know. You can only choose the best of a bad bunch. IMHO this system is superior to the first past the post system and that is what we have been discussing.

  5. By dyspnoeia neither the Tories nor Labor had the majority of first preferences of voters.

    But the ALP was not most favoured by a majority of electors hence the 2.1M gap between those who voted for the ALP and those who did not with their first preferences. Hence there are inherent flaws in all systems even our one.

  8. 892 & 893

    I think what the September 30 analysis by Possum shows is that, if the Newspoll was right and swings within categories (safe and marginal) were evenly applied then Labor would have won 112 seats.

    That is an analysis of the Newspoll data; not I think, a prediction.

  10. 906
    Andos the Great – i would ask you to apologise for that remark you’re nothing but a bully!

    I hope William deletes your vicious personal abuse!

    Dunno dyspnoeia though in countries where that happens it is not compulsory voting so we enter another conundrum all interesting debates we can have here but im off.

  11. Re:First Past the Post

    Let us ponder one of the worst consequences of FPTP in our time:

    The third Party Candidate in the US Presidential election of 2000, Ralph Nader, takes enough votes away from Al Gore in marginal states (most infamously Florida) to allow the Republican-appointee majority judges in the US Supreme Court to hand the Presidency to the Republican candidate (all Democratic Party appointed Court judges disagreed with the majority opinion).

    With pref system, the future Nobel Prize Guy wins. By the way, tremendously pleased to see that Al Gore gave specific praise to our new Australian government in his prize day speech.

  13. Hobosexual @ 912

    Most thoughtful of you, mate. I’ve not seen Adam’s site before, but frequently visit Poss. Com.’s excellent site.

  14. Some belated commentary on today’s comments action. Greensborough Growler: can you tone it down a bit please. Andos the Great: I realise your comment was not intended to be as offensive to Glen as it was, but you should perhaps have realised how it might have been construed.

  15. Prof Higgins,

    Did you really mean “egregiously” as in “extraordinary in some bad way; glaring; flagrant: an egregious mistake; an egregious liar.” [Dictionary.com Unabridged]?

    Sorry, I come from pedantic stock.

  17. A Kevin story: Apparently when applying for the job as Wayne Goss’ chief of staff, our peripatetic PM asked if it would be alright if….maybe….if it wasn’t too much trouble…he could perhaps have every 4th Sunday off. Yes that’s right folks, Kevin only wanted one day a month off. Makes you feel like a total lagard doesn’t it. Our beloved newly minted and sparkly PM is, and has always been, a workaholic. Have some compassion for his team.

  18. Glen Says:
    December 12th, 2007 at 3:23 pm
    906
    Andos the Great – i would ask you to apologise for that remark you’re nothing but a bully!

    lol, you are the most ridiculous person Glen, even when your trying to make a show of being offended. Next time just call him an ass and move on

    Mr speaker Mr speaker!

    lol, totally…

  19. Glen @ 758 wrote:

    That is what makes him a traitor, not only that but to train with al-Qaeda or any terrorist organisation is treasonous IMHO.

    If i had it my way id tear up his passport and tell him to get out and stay out,

    I’ve written before that I was mostly a Liberal voter until the former government resorted to naked racism/bigotry for electoral advantage with Tampa, kiddies overboard lies, Pacific Solution etc, and that the defining moment for me came after the Cronulla riots when there were calls for those not born here to be stripped of their citizenship and deported if they broke the country’s laws, effectively creating two classes of citizens, a privileged first class favoured by accidents of birth, and a second class of those who because they arrived a little later in life would never really be true Aussies no matter how long they lived here, or what they did. An, IMO, abhorrent concept fueled by events such as Tampa and which, if the government didn’t actively encourage it, they also did little to dispel.

    Now it appears that the Howardista fellow travelers – “good Australians” like yourself Glen – want to strip even the locally born of their rights. Moreover, they don’t actually need to do anything illegal, for, as the former government often stated, Hicks broke no Australian law (or Afghani and American ones either). Heck, they don’t actually have to harm any person, or damage any property. They merely have to undergo some military type training in a (former CIA) terrorist training camp and sprout some poorly understood, deluded ideology.

    If that is your argument, Glen, then what would you suggest as a fitting punishment for those Australians who co-ordered the illegal invasion of a sovereign country that presented no threat to any of the invaders, caused the deaths of perhaps a million people and the displacement of another 4 million, and created the world’s largest terrorist training camp?

    Or what about those Australians who chearfully gave a declared enemy of this country $300 million, or those who apparently looked the other way when it was happening while simultaneously conspiring to go to war against the recipient, Glen? How many American or British lives do you think were taken by munitions purchased with the AWB bribes, Glen?

    If you want to punish traitors, Glen, I suggest you first take a long, hard look at some of your avowed heroes!

  22. The core of the ALP is equity & fairness which this ALP PM has upheld
    despite the legal fraternity’s precious sensitivities

    The basis of the PM’s assertion has not been challenged by anyone since
    The correctness of the facts the PM relied on hasn’t been challenged by anyone

    GG , Vera , me & others correctly defended the PM’s right to make the statement on a quite clear National issue and defended the correctness of the statement.

    I have no doubt the 99% of Labor (as well as Liberal) supporters also agree
    ‘Pin pricking’ claims somehow the PM was at the time allegedly uninformed when the issue was SO GRAVE is the reason why the public rate Lawyers so poorly

    There was another category of opponents however in deference to the blog I will not comment

  23. Ferny Grover

    He’s a live wire isn’t he and the cabinet will try to keep up…but I am impressed by his calculated demeanor on important issues.

    He certainly deserves the respect and I look forward to meeting him.

  25. ViggoP @ 915,

    Well spotted, as I’m a language pedant too!

    Actually, I used that adverb to qualify “entertaining” because I thought adding a bit of paradox humour would make my compliment go down easier. Obviously, it didn’t come across as intended.

    Cheers

    Prof Higgins

  29. The president of the Liberal Party, Chris McDiven, has announced she will retire from the position.

    The announcement follows a meeting of the party’s federal executive in Canberra today.

    Ms McDiven say she will step down as president at a Federal Council meeting to be held in the first part of next year.

    Former foreign affairs minister Alexander Downer and party power broker Michael Kroger are both being touted as possible replacements.

  30. I thought my ears were burning while clawing my way through the consumer masses for a bit of Christmas shopping.

    I only made 2 election predictions, the one where I forecast the Newspoll ALP TPP up to October into November for a a headline of 55.15%, but only 89 seats (the latter was done with panel data).

    The other one was way back in May which used interest payments to disposable income and a few other things to forecast 6 months into the future and got 53.7% which would have delivered 87 seats on the national pendulum.

    They were the only two predictions I did for the election – every other poll was nothing but a breakdown, which clearly stated that the results are what would have occured were an election held *then* and the election results were the *polling* results.

  32. I know this is irrelevant but would these STAT scores be enough to get into a Bachelor Of Arts-Politics course?

    Overall score: 147
    Verbal score: 150
    Quantitative score: 145

  35. 919
    MayoFeral – Ok where to begin where to begin….

    I hardly call having a tough border control racist, this is meant to stop people smuggling so we dont have any more drowning incidents as has occurred. We dont stop people from asking for asylum here but all we ask is for them to apply through legal channels and proper processes this goes for anybody wanting to become an Australian citizen so it should be no different for those claiming asylum. I haven’t got one problem with taking in a share of genuine refugees but the last thing i want is them putting themselves in a situation where they can get hurt or die and id far prefer to bring them into the country via proper channels.

    Mayo we should not have to bring in new citizens to our nation only for them to break our laws, they should be prepared to live by our laws and not break them. Sure if they are minor infringements fine big whoop but any violent/drug related crimes we should consider deporting them, we shouldnt have to import thugs into our nation we should import upstanding people who want to contribute to our great country.

    I only want to strip the rights off people who are terrorists and those who are treasonous. Hicks trained with al-Qaeda he fought against Coalition forces in Afghanistan of which Australia was a part, and Afghani law was Taliban Law so i hardly think that is fair to use as an example. Afghanistan was in 2001 just after the threat of islamic terrorism came to the forefront of course we didnt have laws to punish these people because we’d only just faced this phenomenon!

    I dont consider Iraq to be an illegal invasion, Saddam did not comply fully with UN inspections or sanctions and was in breach of several resolutions including 1441. You say they weren’t a threat to any of their neighbours, yet tell that to the Kuwaitis and the Saudis and the Israelis! GWB’s father dropped the ball really Saddam should have been taken out in 91′ oh well…

    War is War Mayo you can’t always stop the deaths of innocents, but how many millions died because of the Iran-Iraq War how many Kurds and Shiites died under Saddam and how many died because of Saddams refusal to comply with the UN thus enforcing sanctions!!! Thank god we stopped that scumbag because people like you would have left him in power! You talk about the ‘millions’ who died in the Iraq conflict but what about the millions killed or displaced during WW2 does that mean we shouldnt have fought against Hitler?

    Last time i checked Howard, Vaile, Downer ect did not give any money to Saddam or had any idea this was going on under their guard even their Departments didn’t know what was going on!

    You talk about AWB yeah they were involved and they should all be in jail who did that, not only were they not the only country doing this but i doubt anybody will know exactly what Saddam used that money on probably a palace or two who knows so why jump to conclusions?

    How many Iraqi lives will be taken if you progressives get your way and abandon Iraq to Al-Qaeda!

    As far as i am concerned any person who willing joins terrorism organisations and fights against our country in battle deserves nothing more than a bullet that is what traitors deserve but that’s not what happens. And Mayo i blame the US and the Northern Alliance for that, the US were fools to give such large bounties to the NA for live foreign fighters oh well!

    Back to Aussie politics Kroger could firm as favourite Downer doesnt know what he wants to do?

  36. Glen, I wish you would turn the drive and invective you have towards an intellectual dissection of issues rather than falling in behind a partisan ideological position. You are obviously very capable. Incidents like Siev-X, children overboard, Tampa are not about having tough border control, these were abuses of power by small minds attempting to win votes. They are a stain on Australia.

  37. Well Glen

    Yu defend the Hicks treatment
    Hicks did not get charged (for 5 years)
    Hicks did not get a trial
    Hicks was not guilty of any offence in either the USA or Australia at the time of his ‘capture’

    You then have the GALL TO CLAIM AUSSIE FREEDOM
    At the very time Australian war ships were circling Iraq , Downer managed via the Foreign office under the UN ‘food for oil’ program the biggest blackmail in australian history to OUR MILITARY ENEMY

    That is called treason ….even in ‘Howard’ legal land

  38. Gee, the saga of Adam and Possum is getting kinda of hot and exciting. It reminds me the story of Adam and Eve from my my sunday school days, it went like this:

    God created Adam, and from his rib, Eve. Later, the serpent tempts Eve into eating the forbidden fruit from the Tree of the Knowledge of Rupert, and she gives the fruit to Adam, too. God curses them and turns Eve into a Possum and banishes them to the arse end of the world. That is why you have Adam forever chastising Possum to this day.

  39. Pancho with great respect those incidents being described as abuses of power to win votes is an ideological position of the left lets face it.

    My position obviously is we need tough border control, and that we should decide who comes to Australia and so we can stop people smuggling so as to prevent more Siev-X’s. This is shall we say the ‘Right’ position.

    The ‘Left’ position is that Howard is a racist, a bigot and an opportunist who doesn’t care about border protection only in winning votes and wedging the Opposition. Also that they are abuses of human rights this is the left’s position.

    I am not above belting my side if it stuffs up, but the funny thing is that elements of both our positions are probably more to the truth of the matter.

  40. A question for Antony or anyone else.
    There seem to be a lot of provisional/absent/postal/prepoll votes being excluded. I counted roughly 27,000 or 2.7% of the total vote, and probably about 13.5% of the provisional/absent/postal/prepoll votes, attempted for SA seats. (This is on top of the roughly 4% informals). Apart from not being on roll, what else causes this. Is there any breakdown of the causes for exclusion. How does it compare to previous elections.
    Nationally then we have 500,000 plus informals, probably 400,000 plus excluded and plenty more who never got on the roll. Surely we could do better than this?

  41. 937
    Ron – unless you have concrete evidence that says Downer was complicit in AWB bribes to Saddam, you sprouting this nonsense only makes you look foolish lol!

  42. And please: ‘How many Iraqi lives will be taken if you progressives get your way and abandon Iraq to Al-Qaeda!’. When was it, exactly that Al-Qaeda entered Iraq? Just as I wouldn’t be asking a bloke who has shot himself in the foot how to point a gun, anyone still defending blind support to a regime that conducted the most inept foreign policy excursion in the history of the US has no credibility on this issue. I don’t pretend to have and answer, but neither do you, or George and Dick and their cronies.

  44. No Glen, my personal responses to, for instance, obfuscating about the pickup of an unseaworthy ship for long enough (for electoral reasons) so that hundreds of people die has nothing to do with partisan ideology. It is personal moral outrage. This is not the behaviour of a leader.

  47. They weren’t in Australian waters they sank in International Waters thus not our responsibility. It sanks Pancho within Indonesia’s zone of search and rescue responsibility not ours dont forget that fact.

    Howard’s tough stand on people smugglers has made sure this practice has stopped so that we never have to have another SIEV X again. A weaker leader would have opened the floodgates to more people who would travel on unsafe sea vessels to get here.

  50. Although this isn’t really the place to continue, my final word is ‘you’re wrong’.

    “19 October 2001
    3pm: The boat goes down in international waters, inside the Australian aerial border protection surveillance zone. Approximately 146 children, 142 women and 65 men perish.”

    19 December 2001
    Keysar Trad, Vice President of the Sydney Lebanese Muslims Association, issues an independent media release announcing the impending arrival in Australia of the first survivor of the tragedy in which he states:
    ‘Three weeks ago, I heard very serious allegations made by survivors of the drowning tragedy, one spoke of two large ships, which he says came by the survivors after the capsize of the boat and did nothing to rescue them. If these allegations are proved to be true, they are of course extremely serious and I call on the Australian government to investigate them immediately.’

    21 December 2001
    Vanessa Walker writes an article on the arrival of Zaynab Alrimahi in which she states:
    ‘…survivors say two boats, which their rescuers told them were Australian border patrol vessels, shone floodlights on them but did not help.’

    15 June 2002
    Official minutes of the PM’s People Smuggling Taskforce are leaked to the SMH and later published in Margo Kingston’s web diary (and extracted from her diary here). The minutes include multiple references to SIEVX that further contradict testimony given to the CMI Committee by the Maritime Commander and indicate further questions need to be asked of witnesses such as Jane Halton. Highlights of the minutes include the fact that on 22 October – three days after the boat had sunk – the Taskforce referred to the vessel as ‘SIEV8’. The entry for 23 October includes the line: ‘Vessel likely to have been in international waters south of Java’. The complete minutes for the period 12 October to 25 October are available here.’

    http://sievx.com/chronology/

    Have a look through some more. Yes, this is small minded, uncivilised and sneaky behaviour, not fit of a leader.

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