A bee’s donger

This time yesterday, Liberal member Fran Bailey held on to a 32-vote lead in McEwen which, though rapidly diminishing, was calculated by Antony Green to be 77 per cent likely to hold after the few remaining votes were counted. Those votes are now in: the last few absent votes broke 100-93 in favour of Labor’s Rob Mitchell, postals went 37-21 his way, pre-polls favoured him to the tune of 33-23, and further rechecking of booth votes cost Bailey 14 and Mitchell eight. All of which leaves Mitchell seven votes ahead. This is apparently the final result, pending the final recount, which could certainly turn up enough anomalies to overturn a lead as small as this. Adam Carr further argues that with a margin of fewer than 20 votes, “the Liberal Party’s lawyers will be able to scrape up some pretext or another for a court challenge”. He also states: “Unfortunately for Labor, most of the precedents are that the incumbent government loses the subsequent by-election (Nunawading, Mundingburra, Greensborough).”

Mundingburra of course was the Queensland by-election in February 1996 that cost the Goss government the one-seat majority it retained after the 1995 election. The other two are from Carr’s home patch of Victoria. There are probably about five people in the country who can tell you about the 1985 by-election for the state upper house province of Nunawading, and I am not of their number. UPDATE: Scratch that – the result cost the Cain government its short-lived control of the upper house, so probably quite a few people know about it, including me from now on. What’s more, it followed an initial tied result and a win for Labor decided by a draw from a hat. The Greensborough by-election refers not to the one Sherryl Garbutt won in 1989, but rather to the one Poll Bludger commenter Chris Curtis ran in as DLP candidate in 1977, which produced a massive swing to the then Labor opposition. ANOTHER UPDATE: A correction in comments from Brian McKinlay (of McKinlay case fame), who says Carr was in fact referring to yet another by-election for Greensborough which took place in 1973, which saw a Liberal win overturned by the court before being re-confirmed by the electorate. One might respond that the 1996 Lindsay by-election demonstrates that voters do not take kindly to initiators of legal challenges, but perhaps the 5.0 per cent Liberal swing on that occasion had more to do with Labor’s generally poor performance at re-matches than is generally realised.

Anyway, let’s assume now for the sake of argument that this result stands. We now have a new modern standard for close federal electorate results to beat Liberal candidate Ian Viner’s 12-vote win in Stirling in 1974. The historians among you are invited to relate other famous close shaves in comments. We also have Labor on 84 seats and the Coalition on 64, with two independents. This is pleasing from a personal perspective as it’s exactly what I predicted early in the campaign for New Matilda, although I did underestimate Queensland’s contribution to the Labor total. Unfortunately, the day before the election I upped the ante to 87 in a prediction for Crikey, which looked very good on election night but became progressively less good as counting proceeded.

This prediction was highlighted today in The Australian, which has promoted me from confuser of fact with opinion and baser of opinion on ignorance and prejudice to the slightly more elevated title of “pundit”. I suspected at first that The Australian compiled this list as a subtle dig at an online commentariat that had leaned a little too heavily to Labor in its predictions, but that doesn’t explain the inclusion of Malcolm Mackerras. In any case, Brad Norington bails me out in the accompanying article by trying on the line that Labor owes its win to “fewer than 12,000 people across nine electorates”. Those of you marvelling over the seven-vote margin in McEwen are invited to consider an election in which the Coalition held on to power after retaining each of Bass, Bennelong, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, Flynn, Hasluck, Robertson and Solomon by one solitary vote. On this basis, I hereby declare that my prediction of 87 seats was only out by 595 votes out of 12,350,549. It would in fact be far more accurate to say it was 0.2 per cent out, which isn’t so bad either I suppose.

UPDATE: Adam Carr on historical close results:

In terms of numbers of votes, the closest result in a House of Representatives contest was 1 vote (13,569 to 13,568), when Edwin Kirby (Nationalist) defeated Charles McGrath (ALP) in Ballarat (Vic) in 1919. The result was declared void in 1920. In 1903 Robert Blackwood (FT) defeated John Chanter (Prot) in Riverina (NSW) by 5 votes (4,341 to 4,336). This result was also declared void. The closest result allowed to stand was 7 votes (13,162 to 13,155), when John Lynch (ALP), defeated Hon Alfred Conroy (Lib) in Werriwa (NSW) in 1914. In terms of percentages of the vote, the closest result was Kirby’s voided win in Ballarat in 1919: he polled 50.002% of the vote. The closest result allowed to stand was that in the Griffith (Qld) by-election of 1939, when William Conelan (ALP) defeated Peter McCowan (UAP), after preferences, with 50.007% of the vote. The closest winning margin in recent times has been 50.011%, polled by Ian Viner (Liberal) in Stirling (WA) in 1974 and by Christine Gallus (Liberal) in Hawker (SA) in 1990.

Mitchell has 50.003%, so his percentage is lower than both Conelan’s in 1939, Viner’s in 1974 and Gallus’s in 1990.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

664 comments on “A bee’s donger”

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  1. No, Work to Rule, they didn’t cancel each other out. Only a quarter of Pollbludgers underestimated Labor’s margin. Another quarter got it about right. And half overestimated it, some by wide margins. I will deal with this in my forthcoming commentary. Stay tuned.

  2. gus 49
    I was a little too young in the sixties to be hazy. Made up for it in the 70’s.
    my first political recollections are the night Kennedy as shot ( i remember the diagram of the bullet in his brain), then the drowning of Holt, then pretty much not a lot till the Whitlam sacking.
    Although i still remember the jingle of “Henry and Clyde” : no idea what year that election was though.

  3. Thanks for your kind welcome William…some years ago at another website,where there was discussion over McKinlay’s Case..I was described as”the Late” Brian MCkinlay…happily rumours of my death were found to be untrue !!..and I was happy to point that out !

  4. Jen, against my better judgement, I offer the ones I can remember off the top of my head:

    Rupert. Continually reposted the same stupid endless joke about Kevin Rudd long after I told him to stop.

    Cerdic Conan. Did precisely what I told him not to do, like a giggling schoolboy idiot.

    Snoopy. Called me – dear sweet little old me – a “c*nt”. A shame, because I quite liked his “So Says Snoopy” sign-off. That’s what the left needs: a bit more pizzazz.

    K Jin. Banned for general purposes of quality control.

    rcandelori. A handy hint for anyone wishing to be banned forever from this website: threaten another commenter with legal action.

    STROP/OLLIE. Called me “pathetic” for not having deleted a comment I hadn’t yet seen (not that I deleted it when I did). In the argument that followed, said “go f*ck yourself loser” and accused me of being Glen. Will be reprieved if he ever apologises.

    I can also think of a few others, but those are the most instructive. Probably best not to mention the ones who threatened me.

  5. Adam – I’ll look foward to that.

    With a week to go, if I had been given the chance, I probably would have increased my own prediction (of 85 seats*) as I thought the campaign had gone well for the ALP.

    The break towards the coalition in the last week still surprises me as it seem to be against the run of play. Will you commentary have a go at explaining that one too?

    *under Albert F

  7. William , the good news is they represent such a small proportion of ALL blogers demonstrating the rest of us are good guys/gals

    Do you reckon Rob Mitchell should buy a tatts ticket ?

    As of this morning there were 6,900 pre polls counted & 7,400 postals counted
    His share of the 2PP vote on these was 47.89% pre polls and 44.02% on postals

    BUT today he gets 58.92% of the last pre polls and 63.79% of the last postals
    (33-23 and 37-21)

  8. Thanks william –
    and i’m so glad not to be among them.
    What about Generic Person- I’m pretty sure you threatened him fairly recently.
    or maybe that was K Jin.(racism etc?)
    Also, how do you syop them reblogging under another name? Or does that explain Glen/ Stephen Kaye / Tabitha/Isabella etc?

  10. Congrats Billbowe on getting the numbers right – truly the psephseer par excellence.

    With your threats, did you get one from some nutjob about enabling the legitimacy of a Rudd communist government by using j.e.wish mind control techniques of boosting win expectations through reporting polls?

    I had one from that turnip who named you as a co-conspirator, just wondering if you had the pleasure yourself?

    That was truly the class act of complaints over the last few months.

    Alcohol, meds and Crosby-Textor just dont mix well with some people :mrgreen:

  12. Hahahaha:

    Alcohol, meds and Crosby-Textor just dont mix well with some people

    Oh Possum, made my day with that line!

  14. I’m sorry to say I haven’t had the pleasure, Possum. I’m surprised I was pinged as a co-conspirator – the j.e.wish mind control techniques were very much your end of the operation. I don’t think I ever actually said I thought Labor was going to win (on this site at least) until the campaign began.

    Jen, I vaguely remember telling Generic Person off about something, but I don’t think he’s been in any real danger. Isabella plays rough, but I’ve never been tempted to ban him/her. Glen has never needed more than a very occasional warning. Tabitha is a certain other commenter’s little joke, thankfully applied in small doses, which I have found perversely amusing. Much as I dislike Steven Kaye, his behaviour stays just this side of ban-worthy. He is in moderation though.

  15. William

    Without naming any names, how did you find out Tabitha was another commenter’s little joke? Did the person just come out and tell you?

  16. ” Pundit” William Bowe says the ‘OZ’

    Reading the ‘OZ’ Chris Mitchell the real message is the ‘oz’ objects to its journalistic standards being questioned (whilst happy to criticise anyone else in the community

    The newspapers have had a monopoly on the written word & seem shocked this monopoly is breached however small

    Shanahan’s comments below is almost pompous shock that he is being criticised:

    ” Shanahan says. “Whereas websites are starting to realise, particularly in relation to me, after Chris’s editorial, that there’s a person at the end of this and a logical journalistic decision that’s been taken.”

  18. Dont be surpised BillBowe, apparently the Illuminati net (of which we are both members) is cast wide…. You, me, Michelle Gratten and The Australian were apparently the key protaganists.

    Fitting that foursome together in some unified conspiracy theory requires some seriously psychedelic Leggo.

  20. William bloged:
    In any case, Brad Norington bails me out in the accompanying article by trying on the line that Labor owes its win to “fewer than 12,000 people across nine electorates”.

    My simple response to Brad Norington 12,000 figure is
    Brad , Rudd won Howard lost
    Brad, the ALP won by 698,000 votes
    Brad, have the courage to say what you want to say instead of hinting at it

  21. can you use your reputed mind control techniques on Shanahan’s analylsis of Newspolls Polls or are your silky skills only successful on us mindless blogers?

    (excluding Steven Kaye , Glen & Taby

  22. “The donkey vote is “worth” an average of about .5% and reversing the position on the ballot paper means a 1% turnaround – changing result in all seats except McEwen. Labor winning 5 more seats and losing 2. Just as well this didn’t affect the overall result. Lets hope there is some will by Labor and the Senate to fix some of the problems which affect the fairness of election process.”

    circular ballot papers. candidates and boxes evenly distributed in a single ring for the house of reps and the white ballot paper in a similar fashion with a ring separating the above the line squares from the below the line squares. Each party is arranged radially so you basically have the ballot looking like a bicycle wheel with spokes for each party’s candidates and you can vote inside or outside the line, instead of above/below. donkey vote is now history, as are any arguments about ballot position because you have no idea what orientation the ballots will be received in. i’m going to go ahead and copyright this idea too… i’ll need the money in case caroline overington and malcolm turnbull come after me..

    in fact i’ve just been inspired to (crudely) mock up what they’d look like. click my name to visit my blog and have a look if my description sounds crap.

  23. gam #72 – An interesting mock up. How about an endless ‘Moebius strip’ ballot paper? Tassie’s ‘Robson rotation’ is a proven solution that is much cheaper, and is now used by the ACT. None of these solutions facilitate how-to-vote material.

  24. “None of these solutions facilitate how-to-vote material.”

    i’m sure voters will cry themselves to sleep knowing that.

    also my solution is cheaper than rotations because you print every ballot the same way instead of n different printing runs for n candidates. a circular ballot would be much smaller than the four feet of white paper we had up here in qld this election.

  25. “Reading the ‘OZ’ Chris Mitchell the real message is the ‘oz’ objects to its journalistic standards being questioned (whilst happy to criticise anyone else in the community”

    The Oz doesn’t like being held to a standard? Or having its standards questioned? I would have thought for many years their standards have been perfect for a neo-con target audience.

    Any paper or journalist who believes they shouldn’t be criticised should change their name to pravda and find some totalitarian country to live in [Now that the dream of a Howard one has fallen through].

    The world has changed now and so it will be interesting to see how the press change.

  26. Wow. I’ve been following the McEwen situation as closely as one can between work through refreshing the AEC site and here of course. After the gradual shift in the last 48 hours or so it looked to me that Fran Bailey would be returned albeit only just. Clearly there had been some big swings against her in various parts of the electorate.

    I had long since given up any expectation of a return on my modest wager on this seat but have enjoyed the commentary on the whys and wherefores of the McEwen vote and learned heaps. Expect more yet from this tale. Seven votes. Closest ever reps seat so far. Wow.

  27. Um, why exactly does there HAVE to be a by-election in McEwan just because the Liberals are not happy? What would their lawyers manage to find? If they’re unhappy with every loss, will their lawyers get involved in every electorate and find some petty excuse to begin a by-election everywhere else? I just don’t see why this is “inevitable”.

  28. Gam #72,74 – I liked the mockups. The debate might be about how to neutrally orient other words on the ballot papers. And aren’t they also initialled and numbered? I am sure those issues could be resolved. Good idea.

  29. The higher proportion of provisionals being ruled out in McEwen than previously had me wondering that the changes to the electoral enrolment dates and eligibility requirements might have been a factor there.

    I would also be intrigued to know how those ineligible provisional ‘votes’ were breaking. They might be a good indicator for the bye-election outcome, if that happens of course. My guess is that they should more than account for any votes that the Libs might have lost from their error with the font they chose on their HTV card.

    On a different matter, many people that I know now cross their sevens as a matter of course to be clear when writing numbers on all kinds of forms. Interesting synergy between a close of counting seven vote outcome and the issue of the ambiguity between the 1 and the 7 on the ballot paper. Is there a numerologist among us contibutors?

    Does anyone have an idea what the current potential new enrollments might be in McEwen? 500? 3000? he he

  30. Possum says:
    Dont be surpised BillBowe, apparently the Illuminati net (of which we are both members) is cast wide…. You, me, Michelle Gratten and The Australian were apparently the key protaganists.

    Fitting that foursome together in some unified conspiracy theory requires some seriously psychedelic Leggo.

    Possum, you forgot to mention the CIA and the Rockefellers!

  32. Apologies for the way the link above pasted, however here is the guts of the article in the Age:

    FORMER prime minister John Howard emerged from enforced retirement yesterday promising that the Liberals could win the next election.

    “Keep your counsel and maintain hope,” Mr Howard urged the NSW Liberal Party’s state council meeting.

    He predicted that the Rudd Government would suffer a traditional swing against it at the next poll, when a swing of just 2 per cent would return the Coalition to power.

    “Unless you’re stupid, unless you implode, unless you misbehave … there is every reason to believe the Liberals can return,” Mr Howard said.

    He said the buoyant state of the Australian economy meant Mr Rudd had “won lotto”.

  33. On the subject of election predictions, I have two things to say:

    1. I was wrong (and never happier to have been 🙂 ) – I’ll take my ribbings.

    2. How Rudd handles Telstra will determine whether he’s a one-time wonder. So many people hate Telstra that if Rudd caves to them, he’ll lose vast numbers of votes. Barring a complete stuff-up of the Telstra issue, I can’t see Rudd losing 2010 – in fact, he’ll probably sweep up a double-handful of Coalition marginals.

  35. Mathew Cole they can be found on this page
    (http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-13745-NSW.htm)

    NSW: 5.98%
    VIC: 5.21%
    Qld: 7.84%
    WA: 2.10%
    SA: 6.74%
    TA: 2.02%
    ACT: 1.82%
    NT: 3.15%

    Also interesting is to look at the swing by seat type
    http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseTppByStateBySeatStatus-13745.htm

    In Coalition-held seats the swings in safe, fairly safe and marginal seats respectively was 6.12%, 6.14% and 5.38%.

    In Labor-held seats the swings were 7.16%, 4.91% and 4.97% respectively.

    The only seat-type to produce a swing to the Coalition was WA, Labor-held marginals with a .6% swing to the Liberal Party.

    The largest swings were in safe Coalition seats in SA (8.82%).

  37. I should also correct myself as ‘fairly safe’ Labor seats in Tasmania also produced a 3.10% swing to the Coalition.

  38. Interesting item concerning broadband, much cheaper alternative and then we can get rid of Telstra and its arrogant CEO, who seems to think that monopolies last forever!

    BBC website:
    While politicians and network providers work out how they can afford to provide the UK with a network capable of delivering super-fast broadband speeds, one company is already doing it – via the sewers.

    H20 networks has been in negotiations with water firms for the last five years and began rolling out its fibre-via-sewers network – known as Focus (Fibre Optical Cable Underground Sewer) in 2003.

    Universities in Aberdeen, Edinburgh and Bournemouth are enjoying high-speed fibre connections with speeds of up to 20Gbps (gigabits per second), while council offices around the UK are also benefiting from super-fast broadband.

    Next month it plans to move to a new phase of its roll-out which could see it provide fibre networks to businesses and consumers around the UK.

  42. Greensborough, what a classic, good to see the Mad Monk being recognised for his people skills at last.
    See on a related link this quote:

    “Mr Howard, who last week wrote more than 100 “thank you” cards, will spend his first Christmas with his family in Wollstonecraft in 11 years.

    Removalists have already started unloading the former Prime Minister’s belongings into his old home.”

    Pleased that you have finally got that truck of your started Kiribilli Removals!

  43. Dinkum @ 73 – the Moebius strip ballot paper was proposed in jest by the late Professor A L Burns at a hearing of the Joint Select Committee on Electoral Reform in 1983, but didn’t find favour. Burns was, however, an early proponent of what became the group ticket voting system for the Senate, an idea which seems to have been first expounded by C L Dodgson, alias Lewis Carroll.

  47. A by-election would be a cake walk.
    Rudd in his honeymoon period vs Mr 14% Nelson.
    A party flush with funds vs a party that is close to broke.
    The winner vs a sore loser.

  48. And one more thing, do you reckon that there were at least a half a dozen prudes who were upset at the “where the bloody hell are you?” and did vote for Fran?

  49. Shanahan describes a debate under way about the credibility of blogs as a realignment related to standards. “For a very long time, too long, we have accepted discussions on blog sites as fact,”

    Most of the posters on this site and others back up their discussion with links to articles either from newspapers, including the Australian, or sites such as the RBA, ABS, economic journals or such.

    And if a dodgy post is made this is quickly pointed out by other bloggers who will highlight the non-factual post, again with links. The accuracy of blogs as a source was highlighted in an article earlier in the year which said that unsubstantiated statements were quickly challenged as the mix of people included economists,lawyers, former politicians, public servants, business owners and many other well qualified people.

    Shanhan is getting confused between those offering an opinion, as he does, and those offering a discussion based on facts.

    But I would have to say that Shanahan was right in the preferred PM bit that he always pushed because as I mentioned earlier the nation wide swing against the Coalition was 5.6% whereas with Howard it was only 5.53%, vindicating to some small extent that Howard was more popular than the party.

  50. Arbie Jay,
    Basically agree with you about the facts vs opinions debate – it’s not as if all (or even most?) MSM articles are based on seriously researched fact. I actually think that’s part of their hostility to blogs – for all the rubbish written on this site by me and others, we are exposing errors of fact and bizarre interpretations by the MSM which, say 10 years ago, would have gone completely uncommented upon.
    To which I say, more accountability, even for journalists, can only be good!

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