Quotable quotes

Four observations that grabbed me from Insiders this morning. One from Barrie Cassidy:

• “Paul Keating described his win in 1993 as one for the true believers. Last night’s was not. Kevin Rudd promised to govern for all Australians. His appeal within the Labor Party itself is tempered because of his conservative cautious stance on so many issues. He will be seen as the leader the party had to have to beat John Howard. Julia Gillard will be the light on the hill.”

Three from George Megalogenis:

• “I suspect Jackie Kelly tipped (Bennelong) over the line for Maxine McKew. Her performance that Thursday morning on AM radio – my understanding of the tracking polls, a few of them went mad on Thursday night. There was actually swings back to Labor in marginals where there were previously narrowings through the week.”

• “Going into this election, 12 out of the top 30 seats for single mothers were held by the Coalition. They’ve lost eight straight off the bat, another three are doubtful, they’ll be left with one out of 30. (Cassidy: Why?) Welfare to work. Mal Brough. May have been popular in the intervention into Aboriginal affairs, but you know, he wanted single mums to go to work. And if they didn’t go to work they were going to lose their benefits. If you think that this didn’t shift votes where the government didn’t expect them … I think it did.”

• “The Liberal Party needs to have a good hard look at its membership base. This wasn’t just Lindsay, we saw a breakout at the Press Club on Thursday where Liberal Party members were heckling female journalists including Michelle Grattan, I think there was a meanness of spirit in the Liberal Party this year that came from its grass roots. I don’t know what it’s about, but Peter Costello (sic) needs to have a good look at it.”

To elaborate on the second point. I don’t have figures on single mothers specifically, but Megalogenis’s demographic tables include data for single parents which shows 11 previously Coalition-held seats in the top 30: Wakefield, Cowper, Lindsay, Leichhardt, Dunkley, Dobell, Solomon, Page, Robertson, Kingston, Bass, with Macarthur, Hasluck, Blair, Herbert and Longman not far out. The only definite survivor out of these is Dunkley, with Labor narrowly ahead in Solomon, Robertson and Herbert, just trailing in Cowper and Macarthur, and victorious in the other nine.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

862 comments on “Quotable quotes”

Comments Page 2 of 18
1 2 3 18
  1. So when “The Gimp” finally gets the chance to lead the party he goes scurrying and hides in the corner yelling “no master, no master”……….just doesn’t have it in him.

  2. Glen

    Try a DLP-style split:

    Nelson, Tunrbull Gerrgio etc become the True Liberal Party.

    While The far right Christians become the Christian Liberal Party.

    I’m not suggesting it’s likely. Just conceivable – and worse.

  3. Glen,

    it is all very well to say Malcolm or Brendan or Julie but do you think the Right are going to lay down and cop that?

    The uglies are the powerbrokers at the moment. that is a big part of your problem.

    which direction is your party going to go/

    what will be their ideals?

    what will be their goals?

    what will be their policy?

    a fight is looming because of the dominance and subseviance to JWH all these years.

    it won’t be pretty and its gonna take a long time.

    what are your answers?

  4. Max, I answered the question about the leadership handover earlier. Howard will be PM, with full executive authority, until he formally resigns. That will be on Friday at the earliest. If a 9/11-type disaster happened tomorrow, Howard would be in charge, although he’d probably consult with Rudd.

    I agree that a Turnbull-Bishop ticket would give the Libs the best short-term prospects.

    Who says Nelson is a social liberal? I’ve never seen any sign of it.

  5. Yes because who in the hard right has the numbers and who in the hard right has profile to lead us.

    The uglies are not the powerbrokers atm they may be in some parts of NSW but not nationally.

    Let’s wait and see who the new leader is before we speculate on how the party is going to change.

  6. Maybe it was an alcohol induced blur, but I seem to recall Malcolm Turnbull rambling incoherently about “The Serfs” in his victory speech last night.

    Not sure if that was wise, but can’t believe that Dr Nelson is seriously being mentioned as leader – no bathhouse in the country would be the same again.

  7. Landeryou is advocating Kevin Andrews as Leader of the Opposition:

    http://andrewlanderyou.blogspot.com/2007/11/good-to-go-malcolm-turnbull-first-out.html

    This demonstrates the problems for the Liberal right – Andrews is probably the most qualified right-winger left in the Liberal party. What this means is that the Uglies are going to have to put up with a Wet being Leader, with hopefully a fellow Ugly being deputy Leader. I have my doubts on that, though…

  8. I have trouble seeing the same people who said Julia Gillard was unfit because she was “Barren” passionately arguing for the right of two Lesbians to marry.

    And that might be where Turnbull takes the party.

    There are serious numbers of current Liberal party members who would ideaologically more at home in the ALP right. (Which is now comftably overlapping the original Liberal Wets. That’s got to cause some tension.)

  9. WPC @ 36
    Your comment made me think a bit and I come out of it with some uncertainty with respect to Lindsey, because I do not know the material well enough. My understanding of it in the general and the particular (Lindsey) is that with a racist dog whistle you actually do not need to actually mention race. You put some cues in there so it is just understood. Therefore you have your cake and eat it too. You can be racist without it being possible for you to be called out as racist. It depends on your target audience being ‘in the know’. The beauty of it is that if your opponents get grumpy about it you just brand them ‘PC’. It all has a certain sort of system beauty. For the Lindsey material. for a successful dog whistle, there would need to be cues to muslims and bali bombers. The audience would be expected to put two and two together, so they generate a personal ‘Aha!’ moment.

  10. The husband-wife parliamentary team seems to be becoming popular. Jon Sullivan, new member for Longman, is the husband of Carryn Sullivan, state member for Pumicestone. Belinda Neale, new member for Robertson, is the wife of NSW Minister John Della Bosca. Any others come to mind?

  11. How dumb is this from Christopher Pearson:
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22810937-5013596,00.html

    The demeanour of the Canberra press gallery at large towards the Prime Minister in his last campaign address bordered on the churlish, although there were the usual honourable exceptions.
    ….
    Nearly half of question time on the last formal occasion of the campaign was wasted on an ill-considered stunt of no real importance. It’s hard to imagine that in London or Washington the press corps on the eve of national elections would use such a trivial pretext for none-too-subtle barracking. But the gallery often behaves like a rather ratty co-ed boarding school, with Michelle Grattan, the political editor of The Age, an earnest but dull head girl. On Thursday Grattan forgot her prefect’s badge and engaged in a spot of unseemly barracking. It was no more than she deserved when government staffers started booing her.

  12. Nelson is an opportunist – AMA president who sold his soul to be in Govt.

    He is the quintessential Liberal “Star Candidate” he has no factional backing (yes the Libs have factions – just like Labor).

    He is likely to be another casualty – get the stethescope ready. We need more doctors. 🙂

  13. I know you weren’t i was laughing out loud that Andrew zzzzzzzz Robb would put himself up as a Leadership contender 😉

    Like the Sun said it’ll be a Melbourne Cup field of candidates.

    Kerry Obrien and Michael B will lap this up wont they next week.

  14. The Lindsay material was designed to link Labor with Muslims, not with any race. Islam is not a race, it’s a religious ideology. It’s perfectly possible to be a white Muslim – ask Abu Hicks if you can find him. Muslims are thoroughly unpopular in western Sydney, hence the dog whistle about a mosque in St Mary’s, the most working-class part of Lindsay.

  15. Adam,

    I asked a question of you at 401 on the previous thread, which you may not have seen, so I’ll repeat it here – just in case you read this:

    ‘Adam (if you are viewing),

    ‘In ‘Idle speculation about the federal election’ (10/2/2007), you said that a “Rudd government will probably be the nearest thing to a Christian Democrat government Australia has ever had”. Do you maintain that view? I have said on one thread that Kevin Rudd will be our first DLP prime minister. I just wanted to say it first, but I am sure someone else in the ALP or the media will say it at a future date, just as they said that Steve Bracks was Victoria’s first DLP premier.

    ‘I also wonder how soon the usual suspects will start attacking the Rudd Government on the same issues as they attacked the Howard Government and how the ALP will deal with the internal tensions that arise from Mr Rudd’s election-winning conservatism and the ALP activists’ trendyism.’

  16. 51
    red wombat

    He doesn’t even have the numbers! This is Bracket Creep chucking the biggest dummy spit in Oz politics since, well, Latham actually.

    Instead of them rolling Howard for him, 18 months ago, they wouldn’t back him, so now he’s just telling them to shove it.

    Great “TEAM” huh?

  17. Glen,

    Console yourself with the thought that if you’re going to have a leadership contest, you may as well get it right the first time. So if there are a lot of candidates, there’s a better chance of getting the right person elected than if someone was appointed by unanimous acclimation.

    Of course, Robb as opposition leader would only be marginally worse than Andrews (actually, I think Robb may be better).

  18. Maybe this was mentioned earlier? If not more info:

    NEWSPAPER columnist and political sketch writer Matt Price has died in Perth, just hours after votes were cast in the federal election he had planned to cover.

    Price, 46, died today after being diagnosed in September with brain tumours.

    Prime Minister-elect Kevin Rudd today expressed shock at the death of the political journalist and commentator and paid tribute to his work.

    http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22818841-2,00.html

  19. You think Downer wishes Costello had told him his decision before Downer wen t on Insiders?
    http://www.abc.net.au/insiders/content/2007/s2100454.htm

    BARRIE CASSIDY: Malcolm Turnbull won his seats against the odds, will that boost his stocks within the party?

    ALEXANDER DOWNER: Well, he has been in Parliament for 3 years and I think he’s gradually building up a bank of experience there, and I think he has a very good future in the party.

    He is a very good friend of mine and I think very highly of him as a person. But look, you need to build up experience in politics and he’s doing that. Nobody in the party, well, I suppose at least in theory with the exception of me, but I’m not running for leader, but no one in the party has the experience of Peter Costello and I think there shouldn’t be a contest to the leadership. It should just go straight to Peter Costello.

  20. On the Kath’n’Kim Movie (yes I know) there was just a line regarding Brett’s new job and the hours he is working.

    Kath “If you must blame anyone, blame John Howard.”
    Kim: “Who?”

  21. It was clear from the Downer “taking of soundings” incident at the time of Apec that none of these guys talk to Costello except when unavoidable.

  22. [It was clear from the Downer “taking of soundings” incident at the time of Apec that none of these guys talk to Costello except when unavoidable.]

    And it was obvious that Costello hadn’t told Howard of his future intentions before Howard’s concession last night.

    If Howard knew, he wouldn’t of endorsed Costello so strongly.

  23. William re Mega George:
    dropped this on Possum yesterday
    ‘I live on the borderline of 2 NQ electorates, one 10% the other 7%; checked out both major booths: Not one picture or name of JWH; not one!
    Big lineups, vocal women with kids knocking back liberal balloons ‘not more advertising’. Feels like it’s on.’ Thanks Poss. November 24, 2007 @ 11:43 am
    Herbert & Dawson.
    BTW hope all the nervous nellie mexicans enjoyed the march of the cane toads last night on meebo thingy. Ta Mr Bowe.
    Maxine appears to have ruined the opening of the new parliament; JWH front centre or back…bugger.

  24. Chris, yes I do maintain that view. On many issues Rudd is a conservative and the ALP left will not be happy with him, and of course there will be the usual rows along the way. But Rudd will deliver on his commitments – repeal WorkChoices, sign Kyoto, invest in education, fix the hospitals, get out of Iraq – so the party faithful won’t have much to complain about. His remarks about Bernie Banton showed that he is an orthodox Labor man in many ways. The unions will get due recognition but won’t be allowed to dominate. Of course it’s a mistake to assume that unions always pressure from the left. The right-wing unions, the SDA and the AWU, will have a big voice in the Rudd government.

  25. As I recall, Rudd was criticised early in his leadership because he decided to go the full monte on a one-election strategy. The first thing the libs need to do is assess whether one-election or two-election is the better strategy. If two elections, pick some one who will make up ground, get damaged and get ditched after the next election. If one term, try to pick a one-election winner. Hmmm. They would need a serious set of national disasters for the latter option to be at all credible. Not impossible with some of the external independent variables operating world-wide. Still, they should probably be looking for the human sacrifice-as-leader right now.

  26. as funny as Robb sounds as Leader, he was the one i was thinking might be the man for the job right now(seeing as that gutless shit Costello has left the donkey work to others).

    Robb could be the Simon Crean for the Libs for a while.

    Party elder, party experience,steady,boring and eminently expendable.

    18 months(or 18 years , depending how bad they get) of Robb might be needed.

    If Turnbull takes it now he will be crushed. He is, however, arrogant enough to want it now.

    Robb…Leader
    J Bishop deputy

    who knows.

  27. “Any others come to mind?”

    Steve Hutchins, Labor senator from NSW, used to be married to Dianne Beamer, NSW state Labor MP and former minister.

  28. Julie Bishop on the other hand would be an investment in the future. A better looking, smoother top woman in politics than Julia Gillard. She has time to grow in the job since the Coalition won’t be competitive until 2013. Can you imagine? Julia versus Julie.

  29. If none of you have seen this:

    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article2936993.ece

    A whole lot of Tory rot (it is the Times, after all) about “Australia’s Mystery Landslide”

    Worth a read, though it’ll get your blood boiling.

    Favorite quote: “Don’t blame them, for they know not what they do.”

    Which I believe makes JWH the Messiah. And here I thought Rudd was the messiah – at least according to Barnaby Joyce…

  30. Labor’s finance spokesman Lindsay Tanner has told ABC TV’s Insiders Liberal voters do not know who they will be electing.

    “If the Howard Government gets re-elected, it’s going to be a total snake pit, it’ll be a complete internal free-for-all,” he said.

    Will it be even uglier now?

  31. How quickly we all move on , or don’t. Matt Price’s untimely and very sad death has already been reported many times. Don’t start up with rubbish about this, fellow Bludgers, like Ruawake, it’s up front and personal for me. Leadership speculation in what remains of the LNP is indicative of what they have become. If they don’t have a good, very long, and very hard look, and I mean very hard look at themselves, they are an ex-Parrot of a party, IMO.

  32. No Australian government has been defeated after one term since Jim Scullin in 1931, and that was only because of the Great Depression. There would have to be a major disaster, politically or economically, for Rudd to lose in 2010. So the chances of whoever the Libs pick as Leader ever becoming PM are pretty slim. Think Snedden, Hayden, Peacock, Beazley. That’s the real reason Costello is quitting. He blew his chance of being PM when he failed to challenge Howard, and he knows it.

  33. 94
    Flash – now that would be interesting, Julie should prevail id think.

    The last thing we want is a Crean fat load of good he did for Mark Latham.

    We tories might as well go with half-Nelson see how he goes if he’s a disaster like Downer, give him the boot and put Turnbull in.

    Julie Bishop will be the deputy leader of the Libs.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 2 of 18
1 2 3 18