Four observations that grabbed me from Insiders this morning. One from Barrie Cassidy:
• “Paul Keating described his win in 1993 as one for the true believers. Last night’s was not. Kevin Rudd promised to govern for all Australians. His appeal within the Labor Party itself is tempered because of his conservative cautious stance on so many issues. He will be seen as the leader the party had to have to beat John Howard. Julia Gillard will be the light on the hill.”
Three from George Megalogenis:
• “I suspect Jackie Kelly tipped (Bennelong) over the line for Maxine McKew. Her performance that Thursday morning on AM radio – my understanding of the tracking polls, a few of them went mad on Thursday night. There was actually swings back to Labor in marginals where there were previously narrowings through the week.”
• “Going into this election, 12 out of the top 30 seats for single mothers were held by the Coalition. They’ve lost eight straight off the bat, another three are doubtful, they’ll be left with one out of 30. (Cassidy: Why?) Welfare to work. Mal Brough. May have been popular in the intervention into Aboriginal affairs, but you know, he wanted single mums to go to work. And if they didn’t go to work they were going to lose their benefits. If you think that this didn’t shift votes where the government didn’t expect them … I think it did.”
• “The Liberal Party needs to have a good hard look at its membership base. This wasn’t just Lindsay, we saw a breakout at the Press Club on Thursday where Liberal Party members were heckling female journalists including Michelle Grattan, I think there was a meanness of spirit in the Liberal Party this year that came from its grass roots. I don’t know what it’s about, but Peter Costello (sic) needs to have a good look at it.”
To elaborate on the second point. I don’t have figures on single mothers specifically, but Megalogenis’s demographic tables include data for single parents which shows 11 previously Coalition-held seats in the top 30: Wakefield, Cowper, Lindsay, Leichhardt, Dunkley, Dobell, Solomon, Page, Robertson, Kingston, Bass, with Macarthur, Hasluck, Blair, Herbert and Longman not far out. The only definite survivor out of these is Dunkley, with Labor narrowly ahead in Solomon, Robertson and Herbert, just trailing in Cowper and Macarthur, and victorious in the other nine.
The Polls in the next few months will be very interesting and will give Labor some important information.
Without any reason for loyal support for Howard or his government the LNP is nothing but an empty shell trying to find its feet. The only people going to support it in a few months after Rudd establishes himself will be the rusted on LNP supporters, their true base-load vote. We will be able to gauge the real rusted on mindless support the LNP has.
Really and truly, this is life imitating art (again).
Antony Jay and Jonathan Lynn had every aspect of the game figured out long ago. If you want to know the dynamics almost certainly at play right now and over the last few days in the Liberal camp, revisit the two episodes of ‘Yes, Minister’, where Hacker bids for and successfully attains the party leadership (Party Games). This line is especially telling:
“The PM’s always hated Ray (Home Secretary and deputy leader). He just hung on long enough to make sure his deputy didn’t get the leadership…”
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590
Generic Person Says:
November 25th, 2007 at 11:05 pm
No 583
Exactly. Privatising the ABC is politically impossible.
But my response was related to Basil who mused that the ABC should be independent of the government.
There’s no other legitimate way of doing this other than privatising it.
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Yes and selling it to your boss, eh, caroline ? caroline ovirington that is….
and why did you slap George Newhouse I wonder ?????
No 803
davo, I fail to see how Caroline allegedly slapping Mr Newhouse has anything to do with privatising the ABC.
Liberal voters?
I blame the parents.
How likely is the new Govt to try to get rid of GST – particularly as on a 2PP basis it was rejected by the electorate at the 1998 Election?
Goerge was right on the money about the meanness of spirit infecting the Liberal party of recent times. HoWARd gave these types permission to behave very badly. HoWARd never had a moral compass to lose, he was a man without principles. Ministerial standards and standards of public debate were trashed under Howard. I just hope that Rudd can restore some civillity to Parliament.
Graham, not a hope in my opinion, GST is now firmly here to stay.
Glen Milne in the GG:
YOU have to hand it to John Howard. The man who immortalised himself as “Lazarus with a triple bypass” has reached from just beyond the point of political extinction to achieve his ultimate personal aim; denying Peter Costello his chance to lead the Liberal Party.
There is only one conclusion here; Howard has likely incinerated two generations of Liberal leadership on the bonfire of his own vanity. The most accurate statement the outgoing prime minister made in his concession speech on Saturday night was that he “owed the Liberal Party more than the Liberal Party owed him”.
OH THE JOY OF WATCHING THEM SELF-IMMOLATE!
Hockey is unelectable as leader due to his support for Workchoices, Nelson the same because of his Iraq/oil comments (ironic, considering it was the truth). Not to say the libs won’t choose them though. If they do, it will be an admission that they are in a rebuilding stage and don’t expect to be a serious threat to Rudd.
When is Parliament due to sit again?
Shouldn’t the GG now be called the COP (Carping Opposition Gazette)?
Memo to Kev:
Sack the entire ABC board and management on first day as PM, followed by launching criminal prosecutions on AWB perpetrators.
Watching the Libs at the moment is like watching a man eat his own face.
Only time will tell if they are starting at their chin, or their a**.
And to think they were running the country 4 days ago!
810, not until early next year I would have thought
Oh I forgot, then launch charges for voter fraud over Lindsaygate, then over porkbarrellgate, then Iraqgate, there must still be plenty more gates I havent yet considered. Then build more Jails for ex-libs and nats.
Yes Basil, what’s the point of being in power unless you crush your enemies with your iron fist?
810, it looks as though early Feb is the next sitting if we go on past precedent, I dont think there will be time for an early Dec sitting as the poll will not be declared for another fortnight yet.
molloby
I believe the autopsy reported it was a baseball bat
Something like that molloby, I figure we should be able to knock off few of the rump that is left, then to save energy they can hold their meetings in some small room, a toilet perhaps.
So I was right, the Parliament won’t expire until sometime in early 2011. I suppose it doesn’t matter in a way, with the majority Labor are likely to have, the Libs will be out of office for at least two terms. I think they are terminal. They will never recover from this.
Perhaps the Liberals, if they are serious about regaining credibility, should have Malcolm Fraser as a consultant to advise on how to restore their collective soul.
I could never have imagined myself writing this in November 1975 though.
Mind you, if Gough has forgiven, then who am I not to?
I heard that the Liberal Candidate for Lyndsay hasn’t spoken to her husband since the pamphlet and he had moved out?
Does anyone know if that is correct?
Rudd will be a three term PM, at least. ( If he can avoid hubris – and the world soes not implode) Labor will pick up Liberal marginals at the next election. Downer, Ruddock, Andrews will cause by-elections in their seats within 12 to 18 months. ( They will not be won by Labor). Downer may in fact go very very shortly. The result gives Baillieu a reasonable chance in Victoria ( given that the State election will be held after the next federal election). Also gives O’Farrell a chance – although I’m hearing he may not survive.
S, what a loser, the whole lot of em, I don’t for a moment believe that both her and Jackie were unaware of the whole dirty scam. Took the campaign to a new level of filth, must have been around Howard too long.
Listening to Downer on Insiders yesterday I formed the strong opinion that it is only a matter of time before he pulls up stumps. And I loved his admission that he never thought they could win, so the stories about his wife being overheard were true.
813
S Says:
Watching the Libs at the moment is like watching a man eat his own face.
ROTFLMAO! Beautiful description.
808 Given that GST was so unpopular and nearly cost Howard the 98 Election why would Labor now be so disinclined to change it?
Adam:
I was surprised to see your defence of ageism/adultism the other day – I’d have thought that a man in his fifties would want to end age discrimination whether it’s against 65 year olds or 25 year olds.
GG = Opposition Orifice?
What ever it is called the OZ appears to have commenced the demolition job on Howard’s legacy.
Gough had nothing to forgive Malcolm for. The moment Gough tried to govern in defiance of the Parliament, he put himself on a collision course with the Consitution. Gough may have had a gripe with the lying Kerr but his fight was not with Malcolm.
831, point taken
I thought Libs losing the election and Howard his seat was as good as it gets.
If Abbott gets Opposition leader, I will just totally die of joy.
Oh and a more sober comment – if anyone thinks the Libs are done for, remember when Keating lost in 1996, there was only one ALP government in the nation – NSW. Yet 6 years after that we had won back all the State and Territory governments. And 5 years after that, the Federal.
The Libs are temporarily down and out. As Glen would say – don’t succomb to hubris.
But do enjoy the moment. 😉
Basil F,
My take on the dismissal has always been that Gough made no real attempt to stop it on the fateful day. He just ate lunch at the lodge instead of calling the House into session before the Senate could enact Fraser’s undertaking to Kerr to pass supply. My firm belief is that Gough (ala Howard) fell into the Hubris of thinking the electorate would “maintain the rage” over Kerr’s acting like a monarch and give Fraser the same defeat which they had given to Billy Sneddon for causing the DD a year before.
Fat chance. Fraser’s landslide was all about the economy, stupid. Just as Hawke’s landslide and then Howard’s would be.
Kerr and Fraser split this country into such entrenched divisions that Fraser was unwilling to be as economically conservative as Howard (first elected in Bennelong during the Sneddon election) and other right-wingers wanted to go. Howard’s humiliation is the final chapter in the saga of The Dismissal.
Bonfrire of the inanities?
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2007/11/25/1195975870395.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
“…As the Liberals drowned their sorrows on Saturday night, one former senior Liberal adviser blamed the result on “the f—ing Chinese”, an apparent reference to Asian voters in Bennelong turning against Mr Howard.”
that comes from the mouth of a former senior Liberal adviser. What a bunch of racist rats they are.
I think some are underestimating Rudd.
He will be tough and very ruthless, anyone else notice his special mention to Faulkner in his victory speech, there must be a lot of public servant bosses sh*tting themselves.
Wouldn’t be surprise to see parliament called to sit as soon as possible, Rudd will hit the ground running hard and most of the legislation will alrady be drawn up and ready.
Nothing like applying the pressure ealry fresh from a big win.
Newspoll boss telling porkie after porkie on Skynews. They got it right!
Yep, it was the Cliffhanger with possibly Team Howard surging to a narrow defeat of Howard. Inbloodycredible!
http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2007/s2100462.htm
“TONY EASTLEY: Well, while it was a sombre and dignified exit for the Prime Minister, one supporter who had watched the night disintegrate and saw her hero walk out of the building was certainly having trouble coming to terms with how her fellow Australians had voted.
WOMAN: I don’t want to be an Australian after today. I hate Australia, for Christ’s sake. I hate us. I think we’re despicable. We’re despicable. How could we bloody do…
TONY EASTLEY: Mr Howard is about to make his way out, do you think…
WOMAN: …haven’t even (inaudible). I love this man. This man has given us more than anything and I just hate to think what we’ve done to him. I hate Australia. I’m not Australian.
TONY EASTLEY: A very disappointed supporter last night at the Wentworth Hotel.
For Mr Howard it was a trip back across the bridge and to Kirribilli after making his speech. It might have been an extraordinary night, but it was another ordinary morning this morning along the harbour shores, as again, John Howard took his early morning walk.
He set off around 7.00am but refused any interviews, telling the waiting media pack that he’d said all he had to say last night.”
I’d wondered what Tabitha was up to on the night.
834, Hubris is what killed HoWARd so I think you are right in your warning but I’ll tell you something else. The Liebierals will learn nothing from this. The fact they could have let the divisive HoWARd do what he did in turning Australian against Australian and scapegoating every dispossessed group in Australia with his dog whistling tactics not to mention his complete denial of the scourge of climate change, I would say they they are doomed. They will never come back. There is a hsitoriacl precedent for this The U.A.P. tore itself apart under Menzies (HoWARd’s hero) The only way he got back into office was to learn the lessons of History – HoWARd’s groupies are incapable of doing this.
Hey, it’s not a landslide! You only call it Slide when Howard or Fraser gets swings of this level.
Well, as I’ve said all along, Martin O’s job is to keep his megacorporation clients sweet. What a testiment to Murdoch’s control of the MSM narrative that Martin O can spin this tripe when Newspoll stuffed the final 2PP for the second election in a row, but they’ll just keep bragging about getting the Primary vote right.
Of course, Primary vote should be close (except when you deliberately go for a different sampling strategy). Martin O’s media manipulation is in the 2PP calculation methodology and not rounding to the .5 like Morgan did.
I just heard the new leader of the Business Council of Australia on ABC radio. When it was pointed out to him that their ads had portrayed unionists as thugs, and was asked whether he thought this might now pose difficulties, he said that unions were an integral part of life, and that business had always had to deal with them, and that he didn’t foresee any problems in that area going forward.
It’s a shame they didn’t then ask him to choose his favorite record. I’d guess it is ‘What a difference a day makes’.
844: Hey I heard that too. I wouldn’t ever advocate payback but I’ll tell you something for nothing, it will happen. The BCA are irrelevant anyway. They don’t represent small business. I have never heard them complain about the way big business beats up on small business. Labor would do themselves a huge favor if the introduced decent unconscionable conduct provisions into the TPA to stop AMP / Westfield / Gandel beating up on shopkeepers. Frank Lowy is rich enough.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22820141-5000117,00.html
“Yes, the economy is critical. But so is giving voters a sense of goodness, of community, at a time when we seem to be atomising.”
Nice insight from BoltA. Pity that every Lib policy and handout he supported was designed with the express purpose of creating a Liberal fantasyland of a society of individuals in competition with each other and community replaced with contracts.
Does anyone know if Barbara Bennett is on an AWA? Rudd should take advantage of the lack of unfair dismissal laws to p*ss her off ASAP.
shadenfruede.
Just in answer to a point on an older thread, the Greens wont go a split ticket; too confusing. What they did this time in safe Labor seats is go open ticket, advising people to put Greens one and make your own mind up on your preferences. This works better at keeping their hands clean, gives more respect to the voter, while still leaving a bargaining chip to play the Majors against each other for Upper House preferences. Labor is going to be so far right of centre that people will be looking to the Greens to be the progressives in parliament, not a Labor shadow. And the Greens have a record in the States of voting with the Liberal opposition. In fact, as the Liberals continue to implode, the Greens will slowly take over as the true opposition, which they have been in fact for quite a while.
The Greens and Labor are going to have quite a robust relationship!
Said, Hemingway. THE END.