Quotable quotes

Four observations that grabbed me from Insiders this morning. One from Barrie Cassidy:

• “Paul Keating described his win in 1993 as one for the true believers. Last night’s was not. Kevin Rudd promised to govern for all Australians. His appeal within the Labor Party itself is tempered because of his conservative cautious stance on so many issues. He will be seen as the leader the party had to have to beat John Howard. Julia Gillard will be the light on the hill.”

Three from George Megalogenis:

• “I suspect Jackie Kelly tipped (Bennelong) over the line for Maxine McKew. Her performance that Thursday morning on AM radio – my understanding of the tracking polls, a few of them went mad on Thursday night. There was actually swings back to Labor in marginals where there were previously narrowings through the week.”

• “Going into this election, 12 out of the top 30 seats for single mothers were held by the Coalition. They’ve lost eight straight off the bat, another three are doubtful, they’ll be left with one out of 30. (Cassidy: Why?) Welfare to work. Mal Brough. May have been popular in the intervention into Aboriginal affairs, but you know, he wanted single mums to go to work. And if they didn’t go to work they were going to lose their benefits. If you think that this didn’t shift votes where the government didn’t expect them … I think it did.”

• “The Liberal Party needs to have a good hard look at its membership base. This wasn’t just Lindsay, we saw a breakout at the Press Club on Thursday where Liberal Party members were heckling female journalists including Michelle Grattan, I think there was a meanness of spirit in the Liberal Party this year that came from its grass roots. I don’t know what it’s about, but Peter Costello (sic) needs to have a good look at it.”

To elaborate on the second point. I don’t have figures on single mothers specifically, but Megalogenis’s demographic tables include data for single parents which shows 11 previously Coalition-held seats in the top 30: Wakefield, Cowper, Lindsay, Leichhardt, Dunkley, Dobell, Solomon, Page, Robertson, Kingston, Bass, with Macarthur, Hasluck, Blair, Herbert and Longman not far out. The only definite survivor out of these is Dunkley, with Labor narrowly ahead in Solomon, Robertson and Herbert, just trailing in Cowper and Macarthur, and victorious in the other nine.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

862 comments on “Quotable quotes”

Comments Page 1 of 18
1 2 … 18

  1. ShowsOn – you mentioned you were standing next to Pyne yesterday – which booth was he at? I think you said you were going to be at Higbury South sometime? What times did you have there?

  2. Ah yes, the greatest irony of all, the big huggable Jackie Kelly, Mr Howard’s great champion of the ‘battlers’ finally took the lid off the stinking fish heads of the NSW Liberal party just in time for everyone to get a good whiff.

    Bless her cotton socks, and her amazingly stupid mouth!

  4. Another good reason for the Libs to elect Turnbull as leader. He is smart enough, tough enough and rich enough to demand and get a thorough purge of the NSW Liberal Party. Most of its staff should be sacked and the Ugly faction led by Clarke should be expelled. if they don’t do this they’ll be in opposition for ever.

  5. [ShowsOn – you mentioned you were standing next to Pyne yesterday – which booth was he at? I think you said you were going to be at Higbury South sometime? What times did you have there?]

    I was at Highbury South from 11:30 – 5:00.

    Pyne was there from about 2 – 3.

  6. It seems as though Karen Chijoff might not have known about the pamphlets.

    Apparently she turned up the booth yesterday without her husband, and with no wedding ring on. She said that her husband has moved out, and that she has not spoke to her husband for a while…..

    Or is she saying this to save herself?

    Anyone heard anything?

  7. Speaking of pollies, we were at a 4yr olds birthday party yesterday arvo, and one guy had just voted in Bennelong earlier and who should pass by, with his horde in tow, but the Rodent itself. He grabbed the blokes wife’s hand and then his, so he quickly shot off “Enjoy your retirement Mr Howard” to the loud groans of his entourage.

    I went down on my knees and shook the hand that had farewelled the Rodent! Oh, did we have a good laugh when I told them not to worry about the ‘narrowing’ and we’d see the Rodent finished off by 8.30 or 9.00. Everyone was palpably relieved when I told them it was finished, Rudd would win handsomely.

  8. [Apparently she turned up the booth yesterday without her husband, and with no wedding ring on. She said that her husband has moved out, and that she has not spoke to her husband for a while…..

    Or is she saying this to save herself?]

    Does it really matter? Surely her political career is dead. If she ever runs again Labor will just bring up Kakie Jelly-Gate

  9. I dont think Brendan Nelson is captive to the Christian Right either Adam.

    Adam what are your thoughts on the Deputy Leadership?

    I think Julie Bishop will be elected unopposed, WA is our last bastion of support it would be foolish to deny their most senior member a high profiled position IMHO.

  11. 1243
    neophyte
    Bloody GOLD my friend. Thank you for that link. So much happens on a daily basis that you tend to foget the details of those previous litany of lies and propoganda peddling. Both video clips were excellent. Brilliant get.

  12. ShowsOn 8

    Agreed that her career is gone. I simply brought it up a an interesting side point. Politics can be so fickled that you career is killed through no fault of your own…..

  13. I though that Brendan was a gay former ALP member from modbury (not there is anything wrong with that) so definitely not a captive of the religous right

  14. Shows On @ 5. Would you happen to be poor unfortunate soul who was stuck with the 2 young libs? (were you wearing the Kevin-07 t-shirt?).

  18. I think the liberals can pick who they want for the leadership team, it will all change in 9-12 years when they will get a cyclic look in at a general election. What sort of loser would want it now?

  19. Made it to the Tally Room last night, had to wait about 90 minutes in a queue with my daughters.

    Worth the wait though, wanted my kids to experience the histroic occassion.

    Saw tears in Hockeys eyes, only a couple of metres from him, Julia came to the front of the stage to wild cheers, Kerry walked the floor later, Tanya was very, very happy. Great crowd and atmosphere, recommend it if any can make the next one.

    Yelled Nantuck Sleigh Ride to Antony about 4 times and Pollbludger a couple of times for good measures.

  21. [Shows On @ 5. Would you happen to be poor unfortunate soul who was stuck with the 2 young libs? (were you wearing the Kevin-07 t-shirt?).]

    Yep that was me. Here’s some things they talked about:

    Mussolini was great, because he got trains to run on time
    Tasmania should only have 1 seat in the House of Reps
    There shouldn’t be a senate
    State governments should be abolished
    There never was a hole in the ozone layer
    Robert Mugabe only became a tyrant after his Christian wife died (this point was seconded by the Family First volunteer) I challenged this by saying Mugabe is a strict Catholic, who even attended the funeral of the last Pope.

  22. I C Moore 16

    Yes, I meant is he staying on as deputy leader of the opposition?

    I am assuming the coalition agreement still holds up, and the Nationals leader is the deputy leader when the coalition are in opposition.

    BTW, question to all, when is the next poll coming out? LOL

    Sorry, force of habit….

  23. NY Times report on the result – liked this bit:

    “Mr. Rudd, 18 years younger than Mr. Howard, has a reputation as a cerebral student of policy, as opposed to the Liberal leader’s image of a hardened and aggressive political animal.”

    What sort of animal could they possible mean?

  25. 6 Sir Eggo This was in the ‘Curious Snail’ today.

    LIBERAL candidate Karen Chijoff, who revealed yesterday she had split from husband Greg after he was caught distributing fake race-hate election flyers, appeared last night to have lost her bid to win the crucial western Sydney suburbs seat of Lindsay.
    Labor candidate David Bradbury had an 11.5 per cent swing and was ahead of Ms Chijoff on primary votes.

    Lindsay, held since 1996 by retiring Liberal MP Jackie Kelly, hit the headlines this week when Ms Chijoff’s husband Greg and Ms Kelly’s husband Gary Clark were caught distributing a phony leaflet from a fake Islamic group claiming Labor wanted the Bali bombers forgiven and supported building a local mosque.

    “I’m not speaking to him any more,” she said yesterday while casting her ballot. “I’m personally outraged by the offensive and unauthorised material.”

    http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22817525-5013650,00.html

  26. [SirEggo Says:
    November 25th, 2007 at 7:04 pm

    I C Moore 16

    Yes, I meant is he staying on as deputy leader of the opposition?]

    Sir Eggo, Vaile has already indicated he wants to stay on as leader of the Nats no matter what (Yesterday). Therefore we would be the Dep leader of the opposition, barring any bunfights.

  27. Evening all

    Can anybody tell me when Mr Rudd officially becomes the PM? I initially thought that he needed a vote of support from Parliament, but after reading up last week learnt this isn’t the case.

    I assume it’s when he goes to visit the GG, and thus assume that this will happen after the Labor caucus meeting.

    Does this mean Howard makes executive calls until then? If a national emergency arose, who would make the call? You would assume Howard would do what Rudd told him to do, as I imagine caretaker conventions are still in place, but I am curious as to the technicalities.

    I trust you have all been enjoying your day of jubilee. The senate ensures it will be an interesting few years to follow.

  29. Fozzy (3), some of the local libs took to heckling the journos, because they believed that the journos were focusing too much on the Lindsey incident when asking questions of the then PM. They even had the temerity to heckle La Gratton! The then PM was also exasperated: ‘What more can I say?’ he asked. He did condemn the Lindsey alleged breachers of the Electoral Act in every which way except for one thing. He was careful not to say that that their activity was ‘racist’. I suppose that is one reason why Labour now holds the top thirty of the seats with the highest number of foreign born voters. Some soul searching needs to be done on the use of the race dog whistle. Some nice bookends for the historians. At the beginning of the larger campaign period we had Haneef, the Sudanese refugees (remember: the then Minister Andrews decided to limit the number of Sudanese refugees after a young Sudanese was murdered early in the election? Imagine how the youth’s family felt!). Lindsey was the other campaign bookend. The larger, government-long, bookend was Howard co-opting the Hanson dog whistle in the early days of this Government, only in the end to find that the battlers rated their rights at work a bit higher than the siren calls of racism and xenophobia and related calls to patriotism, security and militarism. A sorry national saga. Let’s all hope the Wets rally, regroup, reflect and set a new agenda for the loyal opposition.

  30. ShowsOn @ 21. We actually met yesterday – I came in during your shift at about 3.15 & then stayed on the scrutineer (stood at the other entrance).

    Mia & Mike Rann were there during my shift earlier in the day – pity they didn’t arrive when Pyne was there to cause a bit of a stir

  32. [Does this mean Howard makes executive calls until then? If a national emergency arose, who would make the call? You would assume Howard would do what Rudd told him to do, as I imagine caretaker conventions are still in place, but I am curious as to the technicalities.]

    I imagine Howard would consult Rudd. Howard is still acting-P.M., Rudd is P.M.-elect.

  33. [ShowsOn @ 21. We actually met yesterday – I came in during your shift at about 3.15 & then stayed on the scrutineer (stood at the other entrance).]

    Cool! Pity it didn’t work out for Mia, looks like she has lost by about 1000 votes.

    [Mia & Mike Rann were there during my shift earlier in the day – pity they didn’t arrive when Pyne was there to cause a bit of a stir]

    Unfortunately I arrived just as Mia was leaving. I talked to her a bit on Thursday night, and told her if she didn’t win, there was always the senate. 😛

  34. IC Moore – apparently Brendan Nelson had a gay brother (now deceased). You may be confusing that story with Nelson’s own sexuality. As for being a former member of ALP I think thats right.

    From a gay rights perspective it would be really interesting to see Turnbull as Opposition leader. In order to hang on to his seat he will have to play nice on gay rights but how will that sit with the far-right in his party?

    And who will the Exclusive Bretheren have left to support?

  35. If Turnbull or Nelson become leader, you can expect the Liberal party to make a big step left on social policy.

    Expect support for civil unions, equal rights for homosexuals, the end of support for the Pacific Solution and support for the Republic and Aboriginal Reconciliation.

    The Liberal party will go back to its base after this election and try to rebuild from there…

  37. ShowsOn. Yes, it is a real pity. She certainly held her own with Pyne in a couple of public forums I attended & I was most impressed with the way she relates to the people around her – all round, a very nice person & would make a very good representative.

    Highbury South ended up having a pretty good swing – more than the minimum required. It looks like Beaumont, Burnside & the other “Born to Rule” suburbs didn’t deliver enough votes in the end according to the AEC site.

  39. i was going thru scenarios in my head as to what the Libs do now re: leadership,direction,policy,membership,money etc etc

    i came to the conclusion they are focked.

    its gonna get very nasty,very desperate and very unedifying to the public.

    to sum up their future i would say:

    temporary/permanent irrelevance.

    i mean, they have been flatly rejected at every level of office in the land …. and the worst is to come.

  40. ABC is now projecting 88 seats for Labor. I think that’s a trifle optimistic – I’m expecting something around 85 or 86 seats (although I’d be glad to be proven wrong).

  42. [Highbury South ended up having a pretty good swing – more than the minimum required. It looks like Beaumont, Burnside & the other “Born to Rule” suburbs didn’t deliver enough votes in the end according to the AEC site.]

    Can you remember what the final 2pp for Highbury South was?

    I believe it was 62/38 last time. Even 55/45 would’ve been good.

  43. One good thing about the result Boerwar is that awful dog whistling has now stopped.

    As for Howard doesn’t he have to make a second concession to Maxine in Benelong when the seat is finally called.

    “Hello Maxine, it’s John, I’m ringing to say I have conceded”

    “Hello, John, sorry can’t hear you, you’re ringing to say your constipated?”

    “No, no, I’m conceding, conceding”

    “You’re conceited?, yes we know that, so why are you calling?”

    All this of course whilst the speaker phone is on and everyone is rolling around the floor doubled over in laughter.

  45. “And who will the Exclusive Bretheren have left to support?”

    Didn’t they say that it would be the beginning of the end of the world with a loss of Howard? They seemed to think he was some kind of God-appointed messiah.

  47. “i mean, they have been flatly rejected at every level of office in the land …. and the worst is to come.”

    It can’t get much worse than this so i dispute your comment.

    Malcolm Turnbull – Julie Bishop leadership team does it for me.

  49. SwingLowe: The gay community will hold Turnbull to this stance on gay rights. It would be amazing if the Libs are the ones that pressure the ALP on gay rights, though I doubt it in their first term of opposition. If Tanner is right in saying that the ALP will move on gay rights, then I would hope Turnbull says that the Libs want a bi-partisan approach. In fact, for the Libs to regain the lower-l liberal voters, they might actually have do the bipartisan approach on the ALP social policy. Time will tell.

    On a personal note, I was at the Laird Hotel celebrating last night. This is a gay hotel in inner north of Melbourne. Only a few people were upset, including my partner. I think amazingly he started asking me more questions about how government works. He still wonders why majority of the gay community votes Greens and ALP. I hope a few years under a federal Labor government will help him see it’s not all that bad.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 1 of 18
1 2 … 18