Newspoll and ACNielsen state by state

Newspoll’s state-by-state breakdowns are looking even noisier following the long-awaited narrowing, with Labor up in South Australia, down in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, and through the floor in Western Australia. The ACNielsen poll has the swings at 7.7 per cent nationally (compared with 4.8 per cent in Newspoll), 8.1 per cent in NSW (4.2 per cent), 8.4 per cent in Victoria (4.0 per cent), 9.9 per cent in Queensland (9.1 per cent), 10.4 per cent in South Australia (11.4 per cent) and 3.1 per cent in Western Australia (-0.6 per cent). ACNielsen was conducted from a sample of 2071 voters from Monday to Wednesday, Newspoll’s from 2615 voters from Tuesday to Thursday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

784 comments on “Newspoll and ACNielsen state by state”

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  1. I have to say I’m a lot calmer than I thought I would be today.

    I guess I’ve realised that there is now nothing that can be done about the election and that the result has more or less been already determined.

    I’ve also come to terms with the fact that life will go on in the unlikely (IMHO) event that Howard is returned. So whilst it will be extremely frustrating for Rudd to lose, it won’t be the end of the world.

    That said, I’m still predicting Labor to win 81 seats today!

  2. Driving around with my Kevin07 flag flying from he front window (it was my daughter who insisted). People waving, smiling, letting me in traffic. Noice. Went to vote and there were ZERO Liberal people, no bunting, no HTV’s – nothing. Living in the middle of Grayndler does have its advantages.

  3. Just talked to my Mum (in Dobell). Uncle of mine working on the YR@W booth in Wyongah and Mum voted there. Said there was a fair smattering of the parties at the booth. Hard to gauge the vibe, she said, but as it was one of the few booths to go to Labor last time she was hopefully that there is a bit more movement towards the ALP this time.

    She also said that my younger (16 year old) brother is handing out HTVs for Combet in Shortland at Wyee. Only abused once when some old-timer said to him not to bring that “sh!t near him”. Said he has been getting a generally positive reaction there, which I suppose is to be expected in such a safe ALP seat. He even managed to get the hardcore Seventh-Day Adventist voters who bussed in from Cooranbong to take (some) Labor HTVs. Mum says its because they can’t resist the cute little boy, I say its because even the fundamentalists realise Howard is a despicable rodent.

    I was worried sick last night, but this morning I woke up feeling calm. I can’t help shaking the feeling that I will finally experience a Labor victory that I care about/remember. Although, if it gets out of hand, maybe the good Dr Asahi may render this night unforgettable for another reason :).

  4. For those who still want a bet today – Betfair will be open until result known, but you cannot place a bet on-line due to the event being ‘open’. However, the free-call number is on the page and it works very well. Just took some more of Maxine at $3. These a gift odds when you look at the polling. You’d never get those odds in a two horse race with the form so close.

  5. G’day. My heartfelt thanks to William, fellow Bludgers and Possum. It’s kept me sane this last little while. Off to do me duty now and keep that vibe feedback coming, I’m relying on you.

  6. I must say thank you to William. Without his site i believe i would not be so well informed about the election.

    I have to go to work at a christmas party at about 5.30 (i’m doing the catering), hopefully they will have a t.v going 🙂

  7. Swing Lowe @653. Last night I was a little depressed with the narrowing. Today I’m philosophical. Did get into a few “discussions” with the Libs at my booth who went on about Labor wrecking the economy in the past. Decided to walk away, my bp was rising. They must be desperate, they sent this lady (in her seventies) all the way from Moss Vale (about 100km away) to my booth. She told me she was from a finance background and I wouldn’t know a thing. I told her I’m a corporate tax specialist!

  8. I have just finished handing out htv for the Greens in Melbourne. I had steeled myself to get a lot of rejections, but an amazing number of people came up to ME and said “That’s the one I want”. Conversely, the pair of Young Liberal party girls are copping a lot of rude comments. The Libs haven’t organised themselves well at my booth at all. The lead girl was hanging around until 8.30 am waiting for the delivery of her htv cards, and they arrived well after Labor and us had plastered everything…

  9. anyone else get phoned polled this morning? This was done by a recorded message asking which vote i gave to the house and which to the senate. Then it asked for which one i preference after my first choice. Exit poll maybe. It was specifically for Blair.

  10. Been a PB tragic wall-flower for the last 4 months. Time to go active.

    Early long lines in my polling booth in Downer – Fraser electorate, Bob McMullans safe Labor seat. (Downer-Fraser-safe Labor seat: go figure!!)

    HTV people on both sides very quiet and civilised. Seemed to be that most people were picking up Labor & Greens HTV’s. The vibe seemed to be Bob McMullan for Reps and Greens (Kerry Tucker) for Senate.

    Despite Howards often repeated claim, I’m not sure that the baseball/cricket bats aren’t out. I’m more inclined for a wooden stake and mallet myself :].

  11. 615 Chino,

    Husband handing out HTV and then scrutineering. He wonders if he will get home before it is all over. He has small radio with headphones for ABC radio coverage while scrutineering.

    Here on the home front in SW Sydney – 6yo and 9yo at home. Not going to any public party, partying at home. Several bottles of wine for myself. Beer galore for my husband when he gets home. Several bags of chips and dip. 2 computers and 2 “tv’s” downstairs here in the loungeroom. Laptop set to PB either this one and/or the IRC channel as well. Second computer has a TV card in it and will be set to Sky News. We only have one other tv outlet in this room so the main tv will be channel switched between ABC, Seven and Nine.

  12. “Does it say something about internal polling if the Libs are out in force in Berowra?”

    No, except that a lot of them live there. Same reason why Labor and the Greens are out in force in Batman. It doesn’t mean they’re worried abut losing the seat.

    I’d be interested to hear from anyone who’s been working on, and visited, a polling booth in a regional marginal, say in northern NSW or north Qld. How’s it going there?

  13. Handing out of Nicole in Boothby Great response in Lib Heartland!!!!!!- my late predict hung parliament hanging on recount in Boothby!!!!! Go Nicole!!!!!

  14. Thanks to William and the other bludgers for the excellent coverage on this blog.

    Came to it late (in the last week) but have enjoyed it immensely.

    Must have been on this too much because I went to bed at 2.00 am this morning (after dragging myself off this site) and had a nightmare that there was only a two seat change.

    Woke up in a panic at 5.30, but now feel calmer than I have for weeks. I feel supremely confident and would be utterly shocked if the Labor party didn’t get in.

  15. Thanks for all the advice. I’m slightly alarmed that so many are unperturbed at the implication that any “drowning” will be necessary. My own determined policy is to stay pessimistic as long as possible so as to be best emotionally-prepared for all outcomes. I do like the idea of a good bottle of red, which serves both outcomes.

  16. “What is the recommended ‘drown sorrows’ drink?”

    I believe straight vodka and a naked roll in the snow is how the Russians and Finns do it. A very cheap cask red or moselle would also leave you feelng sorrowful.

  17. We are doing take away Chinese in our house tonight in honor of Kevin Rudd 🙂 that way Mum doesn’t have to cook and well we don’t speak Mandarin so that is the best we can do lol …..

  18. Went and voted, then we went and bought a case of Grolsch on special, and a bottle of champers for later. I’m desperately trying not to start the beer.

  19. Business at bottle shops is probably close to as busy as the pre-Christmas rush, I would imagine. Is drink as pivotal to any other event as election night? My apologies to any tee-totallers present.

  20. Gerr,

    I’m good – things seem to be pretty quiet here in Lowe, although the weather here is terrible so maybe that’s making people a bit more reserved.

    My TPP prediction is 53.5% – comfortable win for Labor.

    And Stunkrat, you’re going to be regretting the Grolsch – it’s quite possibly the worst imported beer I’ve ever drunk.

  21. Report from Corio – no-one taking the Gavan Oconnor stuff. And down further in Corangamite, there’s a swing on. ACTU campaign are out in force. Three or four people on each booth handing out for Your Rights at Work.

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