Out of bed now, so I’m a bit late with the news that Morgan has completed a hat-trick of polls that have produced their closest result for the year just in time for polling day. Conducted last night, it has Labor ahead 53.5-46.5, their primary vote at 43.5 per cent (the lowest since January) and the Coalition’s at 41.5 per cent (highest since last November). The odd pollster out, ACNielsen, conducted its poll much earlier in the week.
In administrative news, I just did cleared out a huge volume of comments from moderation, so apologies to those who were held up there. Most of you were first timers – you should be able to comment freely now. I’m off to perform my civic duty, and will have a think about how to handle the election night traffic on my return. I’m much preferring IRC to Meebo (see “Dress Rehearsal 3” post below) and beginning to think that alone should be enough to divert enough blog comment traffic to prevent my server from melting down.
Could Howards prediction come true? Decimation? I kind of hope not. I tight majority for ALP would probably be a better way for them to start. 10-12 seats should be enough.
Details of exit poll:
http://www2.skynews.com.au/news/article.aspx?id=202770
Thommo – not on Betfair – it’s open to the happy end when the result is known.
If those qualitative exit polls were right, that’s compatible with about a 7-8% on other comparable polling which has anchored voting intention to issue importance.
Are these exit polls skewed to whom?
snap
theres a whole bunch of stuff you could do.. but i agree in the end there isnt enough data to really make a conclusion so the weighted mean is your best bet from a statistical view. I was just making the point that if the underlying proportion had changed then the weighted mean wouldnt be appropriate.
cheers
heres hoping for a ruddslide
Thommo – You can still get $3 about Maxine on Betfair
I would imagine that Sky did ask people how they voted, but considers it inappropriate to release these results while booths in all states are still open.
The margins for every question are so pro-Labor that there’s no doubt how they’ll vote. Even if the exit poll is inaccurate, it would have to be enormously inaccurate to stop Labor winning.
And re the previous comment about the army-based booth in Solomon…
The defence vote is also very important in Herbert. Rudd made a really significant pledge, which the rest of the country wouldn’t have noticed, to give free medical and dental care to the families of all defence force personnel, not just the force members themselves. I’d vote for any party that gave both me and my family totally free medical care!
And I don’t think Iraq would be a favourite destination for the army either..
If there’s a swing in Solomon, there’ll be a swing in Herbert too. I think one of the seats in s/w Sydney that includes Ingleburn (Hughes? Macarthur?) would also have a defence-influenced vote.
Any news? ive just come to after an acid induced coma….I picked the wrong day to kick acid….
Ben: I’ll gladly take decimation of the Liberal Party, and the Nationals too.
But, too early for you all to be celebrating. God, I sound like LTEP LOL
You lazy bugger George!
Howard Hater… the Senator says your cover is blown. Retreat.
Ok …. walking home from the chinese rest. with our takeaway, I must have looked a sight. Holding 2 bags of food and drinks and a bottle of red wine and wearing my Kevin07 shirt. 🙂 I got a couple of horn toots from passing by cars 🙂 . ….. exit polls will not be here for another 30 minutes per David Spears BUT the bar officially is open at our house 🙂 …..
Goose says exit poll @5:30
Well, I’ve completed my civic duty in Watson.
Not much activity for an 1800 vote booth.
ALP had two people handing out HTVs.
Greens had a few posters and no people.
Libs had no people and no posters!
If Newspoll is blatantly proved wrong tonight, David O’Shaunessy should resign.
Goose = Spears?
exit polling seems to be validating labor’s strategy
What tie will Kerry O’Brien be wearing? A red one?
Whoever the talking head on Sky is.
418 – yes. All key strategy messages scored favourably for ALP
Possum Comitatus Says:”You lazy bugger George!”
You know, one of these days I’m actually gonna get the TV man to come to my place and organise for a connection in my home office. I hate watching TV in the other rooms of the house, cause even though I can drag the laptop there easily, two 24″ LCDs isn’t so easy 😉
BTW, didn’t stick around on therapy thread on your site – did you manage to settle all those nervous nellys?
Well folks – only two hours left for the Howard goverment.
afternoon all , i’m feeling a mite nervous , this election has the feel of 96, change is a coming , i bloody hope so!
Yes a note of caution. Questions seem skewed and the pollster is the Labour Crosbt Texter. Buttwould be interesting to know if the first question after you answered if you had voted was. Who was it for. If they asked all the other questions first you may get some buyers remorse.
http://www.news.com.au/0,,qld,00.html
Check the major headline at news.com
its looking good
Anyone want to come with me and run around naked in ryde shopping centre if howard loses bennelong?
cheers
K Jin… answering all the other questions wouldn’t change the answer of who you voted for.
Unless you believe people lie to pollsters en masse and I don’t.
Thommo, that’s of their online poll which you can vote multiple times on.
channel ten news shows chaser boys handing out ‘those flyers’ in Lindsay…
Thommo – Haha. The internet poll? Hahahaha.
kjin
crosby textor are the lib pollsters
Come on guys! Why all the fuss about the exit polls when the real thing is less than an hour away. To all you tragics…it reminds of people who prefer looking at porn rather than actually having sxxxxxxx…(Ouch I just got hit by my girlfriend who acused me of being on a porn site. I had to admit to the porn, as there is no way I could have told her the truth!!!)
Barry #415
No Liberals at the booth at Ginninderra Lake College, in Fraser ACT, either. Not a good look if they want to win the 2nd Senate seat.
Sorry only read the headline folks.
[ Why all the fuss about the exit polls when the real thing is less than an hour away. ]
They’re just drooling over the menu while they wait for the main course to arrive.
Thommo they’ve been peddling this “cliff-hanger” bullsh-t for a while now.
52-48 is not a cliff hanger and neither is 57-43 I’m afraid…
A typical Liberal failing, Thommo!
Latest on Medowie (in Paterson). The public school booth is feeling fairly even. If anything there are more people sailing past the liberal htv people. Labor have definitely got their act together this time. Strong xtian presence in this area too and the mood at the same booth last time was pretty ugly (pro Baldwin). Today despite the rain it felt hopeful.
Rumor has it that Raymond Terrace is doing very well.
Looking great. I find the new.com.au story hilarious, however, they are are saying it’s a cliffhanger based on their little web poll.
Chaser handed out how to vote cards to the Liberal candidate in Lindsay dressed as Osama Bin Laden.
So – what colour ties for Kerry O’Brien and Tony Jones? I’m tipping red power stripe and black suit for KO’B and the milticolour [orange, red and blue] with grey suit for TJ.
This is gusfaces son dads resting
BUT, thanks for voting out the liberal baddies now I can sleep at night
cheers mate – our pleasure!
432
howard’s end Says:
November 24th, 2007 at 5:07 pm
kjin
crosby textor are the lib pollsters
Yes I know. but the folks doing the exit of sky are the Labors party private pollsters. Hence they are the Labour mirror of Crosby Texter
Oh one other funny thing. Labor dominated the entrance to the school, standing under umbrellas. The Libs were cowering inside the school under walkways. That way you couldn’t walk around them. Even so there were plenty of people refusing to make eye contact with them.
To all. From the booths of Boothby. Good luck!!!
Booth traffic seemed pretty good. Best of luck William.
Off to the party.
Catch up later tonight.
sorry thommo at #426 that’s an old headline from last night…
Don’t know about the other ranks, but he started losing the top levels after ‘children overboard.’ And Nelson’s disregard for the opinions of the senior officers has really put noses out of joint.
could this really be howards end? please say it is so