Morgan: 53.5-46.5

Out of bed now, so I’m a bit late with the news that Morgan has completed a hat-trick of polls that have produced their closest result for the year just in time for polling day. Conducted last night, it has Labor ahead 53.5-46.5, their primary vote at 43.5 per cent (the lowest since January) and the Coalition’s at 41.5 per cent (highest since last November). The odd pollster out, ACNielsen, conducted its poll much earlier in the week.

In administrative news, I just did cleared out a huge volume of comments from moderation, so apologies to those who were held up there. Most of you were first timers – you should be able to comment freely now. I’m off to perform my civic duty, and will have a think about how to handle the election night traffic on my return. I’m much preferring IRC to Meebo (see “Dress Rehearsal 3” post below) and beginning to think that alone should be enough to divert enough blog comment traffic to prevent my server from melting down.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

595 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5”

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  1. Could Howards prediction come true? Decimation? I kind of hope not. I tight majority for ALP would probably be a better way for them to start. 10-12 seats should be enough.

  2. snap

    theres a whole bunch of stuff you could do.. but i agree in the end there isnt enough data to really make a conclusion so the weighted mean is your best bet from a statistical view. I was just making the point that if the underlying proportion had changed then the weighted mean wouldnt be appropriate.


    heres hoping for a ruddslide

  3. I would imagine that Sky did ask people how they voted, but considers it inappropriate to release these results while booths in all states are still open.

    The margins for every question are so pro-Labor that there’s no doubt how they’ll vote. Even if the exit poll is inaccurate, it would have to be enormously inaccurate to stop Labor winning.

    And re the previous comment about the army-based booth in Solomon…

    The defence vote is also very important in Herbert. Rudd made a really significant pledge, which the rest of the country wouldn’t have noticed, to give free medical and dental care to the families of all defence force personnel, not just the force members themselves. I’d vote for any party that gave both me and my family totally free medical care!

    And I don’t think Iraq would be a favourite destination for the army either..

    If there’s a swing in Solomon, there’ll be a swing in Herbert too. I think one of the seats in s/w Sydney that includes Ingleburn (Hughes? Macarthur?) would also have a defence-influenced vote.

  4. Ben: I’ll gladly take decimation of the Liberal Party, and the Nationals too.
    But, too early for you all to be celebrating. God, I sound like LTEP LOL

  5. Ok …. walking home from the chinese rest. with our takeaway, I must have looked a sight. Holding 2 bags of food and drinks and a bottle of red wine and wearing my Kevin07 shirt. 🙂 I got a couple of horn toots from passing by cars 🙂 . ….. exit polls will not be here for another 30 minutes per David Spears BUT the bar officially is open at our house 🙂 …..

  6. Well, I’ve completed my civic duty in Watson.

    Not much activity for an 1800 vote booth.
    ALP had two people handing out HTVs.
    Greens had a few posters and no people.
    Libs had no people and no posters!

  7. Possum Comitatus Says:”You lazy bugger George!”

    You know, one of these days I’m actually gonna get the TV man to come to my place and organise for a connection in my home office. I hate watching TV in the other rooms of the house, cause even though I can drag the laptop there easily, two 24″ LCDs isn’t so easy 😉

    BTW, didn’t stick around on therapy thread on your site – did you manage to settle all those nervous nellys?

  8. Yes a note of caution. Questions seem skewed and the pollster is the Labour Crosbt Texter. Buttwould be interesting to know if the first question after you answered if you had voted was. Who was it for. If they asked all the other questions first you may get some buyers remorse.

  9. K Jin… answering all the other questions wouldn’t change the answer of who you voted for.

    Unless you believe people lie to pollsters en masse and I don’t.

  10. Come on guys! Why all the fuss about the exit polls when the real thing is less than an hour away. To all you tragics…it reminds of people who prefer looking at porn rather than actually having sxxxxxxx…(Ouch I just got hit by my girlfriend who acused me of being on a porn site. I had to admit to the porn, as there is no way I could have told her the truth!!!)

  11. Barry #415
    No Liberals at the booth at Ginninderra Lake College, in Fraser ACT, either. Not a good look if they want to win the 2nd Senate seat.

  12. [ Why all the fuss about the exit polls when the real thing is less than an hour away. ]

    They’re just drooling over the menu while they wait for the main course to arrive.

  13. Thommo they’ve been peddling this “cliff-hanger” bullsh-t for a while now.
    52-48 is not a cliff hanger and neither is 57-43 I’m afraid…

  14. Latest on Medowie (in Paterson). The public school booth is feeling fairly even. If anything there are more people sailing past the liberal htv people. Labor have definitely got their act together this time. Strong xtian presence in this area too and the mood at the same booth last time was pretty ugly (pro Baldwin). Today despite the rain it felt hopeful.

    Rumor has it that Raymond Terrace is doing very well.

  15. Looking great. I find the story hilarious, however, they are are saying it’s a cliffhanger based on their little web poll.

  16. So – what colour ties for Kerry O’Brien and Tony Jones? I’m tipping red power stripe and black suit for KO’B and the milticolour [orange, red and blue] with grey suit for TJ.

  17. 432
    howard’s end Says:
    November 24th, 2007 at 5:07 pm

    crosby textor are the lib pollsters

    Yes I know. but the folks doing the exit of sky are the Labors party private pollsters. Hence they are the Labour mirror of Crosby Texter

  18. Oh one other funny thing. Labor dominated the entrance to the school, standing under umbrellas. The Libs were cowering inside the school under walkways. That way you couldn’t walk around them. Even so there were plenty of people refusing to make eye contact with them.

  19. To all. From the booths of Boothby. Good luck!!!

    Booth traffic seemed pretty good. Best of luck William.

    Off to the party.

    Catch up later tonight.

  20. Excellent news RGee. If Howard has lost the Defense crowd, it’s all over.

    Don’t know about the other ranks, but he started losing the top levels after ‘children overboard.’ And Nelson’s disregard for the opinions of the senior officers has really put noses out of joint.

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