Morgan: 53.5-46.5

Out of bed now, so I’m a bit late with the news that Morgan has completed a hat-trick of polls that have produced their closest result for the year just in time for polling day. Conducted last night, it has Labor ahead 53.5-46.5, their primary vote at 43.5 per cent (the lowest since January) and the Coalition’s at 41.5 per cent (highest since last November). The odd pollster out, ACNielsen, conducted its poll much earlier in the week.

In administrative news, I just did cleared out a huge volume of comments from moderation, so apologies to those who were held up there. Most of you were first timers – you should be able to comment freely now. I’m off to perform my civic duty, and will have a think about how to handle the election night traffic on my return. I’m much preferring IRC to Meebo (see “Dress Rehearsal 3” post below) and beginning to think that alone should be enough to divert enough blog comment traffic to prevent my server from melting down.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

595 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5”

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  1. Just did 6hrs of Greens HTV in very safe Labor so nothing out of the ordinary.

    Libs didn’t even turn up until about 10am.

    That Newhouse must be a ladies man of the highest order or Caroline just a bit embarrassed.

  2. @34 Flash

    Yes there is a very valid sdchool of thought that Kerry won in 2004 but for some polling ‘irregularities’ in Ohio and certain other places… Many articles if you care to look.

  3. I heard that Caroline Overington has been re-assigned already by the Oz editor – she’ll be starting up a personal relationships advice column.

  4. Re: Overington’s Slap
    I’m looking forward to the MSM eating one of their own in the days to come.

    I wonder if we can expect any more high profile implosions…

  5. Did not realise there was a new thread but this is BREAKING NEWS so will repost.

    Just back from voting at Church in Oxford St Bulimba where Rudd voted earlier.
    To say there is a lingering vibe down there is an understatement.
    Over the church and its grounds but not anywhere else in the street. IT IS TEAMING WITH RAIN.
    If you stare for a while at the ground you can see the brown grass turning green and new shoots sprouting up.
    The drought is about to BREAK !!!

  6. AJ not sure if you got my message on the other thread. Can you use AJ2 as I have used aj on this site for a long time and it will stop the confusion. Thanks again.

  7. Just back from voting in Fairfax – asked the Labor guy how he felt things were going “Good -Very Good” was the reply.

    Lots of people not taking Liberal HTV – Family First Girly (in Pink Bikini top under see through T-Shirt) Ignored by most.

    Get Up and Libs in the prime spots. No Dams put Labor last signage but no people. 🙂

  8. That’s usually a pretty good booth at St Andrews, from memory SilverBodgie.

    Things looked pretty good at Diamond Creek PS too. Were the Libs at St A’s wearing those silly pinko Fran Bailey baseball caps, too?

    It will be interesting hear how the new housing areas around Mill Park etc go when it comes to McEwen.

  9. 50@thesilverbodgie,

    I’m not surprised for St Andrews is a booth that the Liberals only win when they are travelling well the Greens always do well in that booth.

    I’m not surprised by the comments of Will of Kooyong for I have known for a while that the Green vote is surging in Melbourne’s East.

  10. Overington’s problem is that she is not content to report on the story or even comment on the story. She wants to be the story.

    Well, now she is.

    She was already skating on particularly thin ice after the email affair. He bosses at the GG are likely to take a dim view of a supposedly serious journalist assaulting a candidat outside a polling place.

  11. Caroline Overington sounds like a walking version of Glen Close’s character in “Fatal Attraction’. Newhouse must be really creeped out by this woman and her delusions and obsessions about him

  12. Voted earlier in Boothby – heaps of people about, sun is shining, nice day. Didn’t see a single HTV for Southcott. Everyone had Cornes or Greens. The earlier prediction that said Cornes may win with Greens preferences might be right.

  13. Overington is presumably peeved that Newhouse leaked her ‘flirty’ emails.

    Good to see a journo who believes in freedom of information, except for herself.

  14. Just got back from Glen Eira, a strong Liberal area in Melbourne Ports (just next to Higgins, etc).

    Still doggedly Liberal, but no show from FF (which surprised me), heard from a friend that FF had a runction that scared off a lot of their booth workers this time round.

    People were interested in GetUp. More people interested in Lyn Allison than the Democrats … she probably should’ve run as an independent (ala Bartlett in QLD).

    Very strong Green presence, but I think votes thin on the ground for minor parties in that area.

    A lot of people taking Labor and Green/GetUp.

    The Greens lady next to me was slightly crazy – she tried to out green me but the Democrats kick ass in that category to be frank and so she looked like a fool, especially when it turned out she had driven to the booth (I had ridden my push bike)

  15. The socialist guy told me when he went to hand me his HTV that he would by me a coffee if I took it. Obviously he had been watching the main parties and was attemting to me middle class welfare.

  16. I voted this morning in Berowra. Not one Labor person there to hand out HTVs, only a Liberal bloke and a lady from the Greens. I guess the ALP have put all their manpower into the neighbouring seat of Bennelong(any intelligence from there so far?). That’s what you get for living in a safe Liberal seat where I guess there won’t be much of a swing against Howard, but who knows?

  17. Jordon: do you think Nicole can win? Despite all the crap she’s copped in the media, I like her actually, from the little I’ve seen of her on TV.

  18. Not sure about here, but in France the exit polling is near perfect. So much so that elections and referendums are called the second the polls close. They’ve never been even out more than 0.5%.

    The 2004 Exit Polls in America showed Kerry winning. We’ll never know for sure, but it’s clear fraud and deliberately long lines prevented many people from voting in Ohio.

    If the sampling is random and not affected by “ashamed” voters, exit polls are innately *more* accurate than other polling because you are asking someone about something that they have just done, rather than something they *plan* to do.

  19. I’m amazed the Government Gazette actually endorsed Rudd. Today’s edition was wall to wall pro Howard/anti Labor propoganda – Shanahan’s last stand?

  20. Cornes is up against a historically doggedly Liberal seat in SA. Theyve held it for 50 years. More than 60% of the people in the seat are 55+. But I tell ya, from what I saw today, and from what a friend said about what he saw at his booth in the upper-class Hawthorn area…. the swing is on.

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