Morgan: 53.5-46.5

Out of bed now, so I’m a bit late with the news that Morgan has completed a hat-trick of polls that have produced their closest result for the year just in time for polling day. Conducted last night, it has Labor ahead 53.5-46.5, their primary vote at 43.5 per cent (the lowest since January) and the Coalition’s at 41.5 per cent (highest since last November). The odd pollster out, ACNielsen, conducted its poll much earlier in the week.

In administrative news, I just did cleared out a huge volume of comments from moderation, so apologies to those who were held up there. Most of you were first timers – you should be able to comment freely now. I’m off to perform my civic duty, and will have a think about how to handle the election night traffic on my return. I’m much preferring IRC to Meebo (see “Dress Rehearsal 3” post below) and beginning to think that alone should be enough to divert enough blog comment traffic to prevent my server from melting down.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

595 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5”

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  1. Yeah Thommo right.

    The Labor Party has continued to hold on as strong short priced favourites.

    Betfair approaching the $4m matched bets mark – ALP 1.35 / LIB 3.85.

    Bring home the bacon K07.

  2. Thommo the defence crowd has always been conservative. However what I hear is there is a noticeable protest vote from the RAAF base here.

  3. Howard’s end, don’t get me wrong — you are dead right … just from personal experience, I wanted to pool them.

    Anyhow, yup — I’ve been saying for weeks that the likelihood is something between a comfortable win and a Ruddslide. Here’s hoping for the latter! But I’ll take either 🙂

  4. Guys,

    Don’t be too hard on Thommo, Glen or ESJ – I like to remember that during their triumphal processions through Rome, even the most revered emperors had a person on the back of their chariot (just behind them), saying “You are but a mortal”, again and again.

    To me, the Lib posters are these people – reminding us that not everyone (or for that matter the universe) inevitably sees things our way….

  5. 35 Mins and we get the first results from Tassie. Buckle your seatbelts Ladies and Gentlemen. We’re in for a bumpy ride this evening.

  6. I think if defence votes Labour that is a good thing but if they do not that is Ok too. Though Having Navy mates voting Lib is very sus NOT Remember Navy just takes other blokes somewhere to do the fighting.
    Also remember the AIF on the western front voted against conscription twice.

  7. Dunno if this means anything – but was speaking to my Father-in-law earlier – he is working up on Koolan Island Iron Ore mine off the coast of Broome – he said he voted last week before heading out to the island for his next shift but most workers there have not done so and will not be able to get their vote in.

    Make of it what you will

  8. Booth on the border of Fadden and Moncrief felt pretty much like recent state elections (which may not be good for Libs as they were kicked pretty badly here lasrt time). There was a genuine feeling of change in the senate vote. I could tell the Fadden voters as there was a definite low level anger that wasn’t there at the last state plebiscite.

    A few of the rusted-on Labor voters were wuite chipper but not the HTV people, who were a bit gloomy if anything. Interestingly, the Fadden National Party HTV person didn’t seem to know the names of any of the National Party candidates – probably a shirt-swapping Lib.

    I was handing out for the Greens and there were three people who said they were new to the area and said that they would vote Green. Maybe a telling anecdote for all parties in the region.

  9. Mad Cow: I’ll be keeping my fingers crossed for your bloke Jim Arneman.
    Unfortunately for those of us Labor supporters in Berowra, we’re stuck with the walking corpse for another 3 years.

  10. Hunstundho Says: “Bruce Baird will not drop that 71% economy question. He looks like he’s had a few.”

    Hmmm, not sure about that – I think he’s just heavily constipated.

  11. Hunstundho they usually have polling booths in the camps. It would be unusal for the people working the roster wouldn’t have polling booths brought to them in the camps. Could be wrong though.

  12. I agree with you Centre, i don’t care by how much Labor wins by, as long as there is a result,

    I would rather it to be Landslide for the only reason being I dont think I have the nerves to sit up tonight if it is very close

  13. James @ 478

    Try being in Year 3 when Howard was elected. Even then I remember feeling slightly bad when I headed into school on Monday to be asked by the teacher who the new PM was. I got it right, but I never thought I would be in my second year of uni and he would still be around.

    Heres to him not being PM in my 3rd year of uni!

  14. Same here James I am 22 and all I have know is John Howard to be Prime Miniser,

    For someone else to have the title Prime minister other than John Howard would just sound funny

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