Out of bed now, so I’m a bit late with the news that Morgan has completed a hat-trick of polls that have produced their closest result for the year just in time for polling day. Conducted last night, it has Labor ahead 53.5-46.5, their primary vote at 43.5 per cent (the lowest since January) and the Coalition’s at 41.5 per cent (highest since last November). The odd pollster out, ACNielsen, conducted its poll much earlier in the week.
In administrative news, I just did cleared out a huge volume of comments from moderation, so apologies to those who were held up there. Most of you were first timers you should be able to comment freely now. I’m off to perform my civic duty, and will have a think about how to handle the election night traffic on my return. I’m much preferring IRC to Meebo (see “Dress Rehearsal 3” post below) and beginning to think that alone should be enough to divert enough blog comment traffic to prevent my server from melting down.
450 – it is so:)
now if only maxine can get over the line in bennelong
I think Gusface went too hard too early – Bourboun will do that to you!
I dont think Howard has lost the defence crowd. I have a few mates in the Navy and they say the vast majority support Howard.
The Labor man sounded fairly confident about Qld
That’s Navy for you Thommo
Yeah Thommo right.
The Labor Party has continued to hold on as strong short priced favourites.
Betfair approaching the $4m matched bets mark – ALP 1.35 / LIB 3.85.
Bring home the bacon K07.
Thommo the defence crowd has always been conservative. However what I hear is there is a noticeable protest vote from the RAAF base here.
Howard’s end, don’t get me wrong — you are dead right … just from personal experience, I wanted to pool them.
Anyhow, yup — I’ve been saying for weeks that the likelihood is something between a comfortable win and a Ruddslide. Here’s hoping for the latter! But I’ll take either 🙂
Sky will say 51-49 or something like that for the exit poll, to keep it all brewing along as long as possible.
Guys,
Don’t be too hard on Thommo, Glen or ESJ – I like to remember that during their triumphal processions through Rome, even the most revered emperors had a person on the back of their chariot (just behind them), saying “You are but a mortal”, again and again.
To me, the Lib posters are these people – reminding us that not everyone (or for that matter the universe) inevitably sees things our way….
It looks like betting on Betfair is still open. It doesn’t look good for Maxine McKew as there is $3 available to back her but no offers at all to lay. http://www.betfair.com/
I can reveal exclusively that Labor has captured 100% of my household vote
PhilG Howard will retain Bennelong.
35 Mins and we get the first results from Tassie. Buckle your seatbelts Ladies and Gentlemen. We’re in for a bumpy ride this evening.
I think if defence votes Labour that is a good thing but if they do not that is Ok too. Though Having Navy mates voting Lib is very sus NOT Remember Navy just takes other blokes somewhere to do the fighting.
Also remember the AIF on the western front voted against conscription twice.
Dunno if this means anything – but was speaking to my Father-in-law earlier – he is working up on Koolan Island Iron Ore mine off the coast of Broome – he said he voted last week before heading out to the island for his next shift but most workers there have not done so and will not be able to get their vote in.
Make of it what you will
Booth on the border of Fadden and Moncrief felt pretty much like recent state elections (which may not be good for Libs as they were kicked pretty badly here lasrt time). There was a genuine feeling of change in the senate vote. I could tell the Fadden voters as there was a definite low level anger that wasn’t there at the last state plebiscite.
A few of the rusted-on Labor voters were wuite chipper but not the HTV people, who were a bit gloomy if anything. Interestingly, the Fadden National Party HTV person didn’t seem to know the names of any of the National Party candidates – probably a shirt-swapping Lib.
I was handing out for the Greens and there were three people who said they were new to the area and said that they would vote Green. Maybe a telling anecdote for all parties in the region.
Tassie will be a liberal party wipeout 5-zip win to ALP with strong preferences coming from the Greens
Overington denies slapping Newhouse
It was an “open handed push”. Hey baby, that’s still assualt!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22814756-12377,00.html
Our grandson was born last night. I hope he has come into a fairer, more tolerant Australia.
You should name him Gough.
“Betfair” … clearly an oxymoron, but thanks … I put some money on Maxine …
Mad Cow: I’ll be keeping my fingers crossed for your bloke Jim Arneman.
Unfortunately for those of us Labor supporters in Berowra, we’re stuck with the walking corpse for another 3 years.
Hawker said 8 to 9 % is do able in NSW
I don’t care if Rudd wins by a nose or 46 seats. The collect is the same. Give him strength.
I did a quick exit poll in my car on the way home – on that basis, Labor’s going to get 150.
@471 I hope so too. I was in Year 6 when JWH was voted in 🙁
its time @ 471
Are you going to call him Kevin?
Name him Gough Bob Paul Kevin Ruddling
Bruce Baird will not drop that 71% economy question. He looks like he’s had a few.
The kids might take our advice on politics but not on baby naming.
It’s time #471,
May all of his days be blessed by the gods, and may they smile upon his household.
My hope is that Berowra suddenly becomes very marginal and the Rudd Government spends some money here – unlikely though!
“Liberal Party” another oxymoron
Hunstundho Says: “Bruce Baird will not drop that 71% economy question. He looks like he’s had a few.”
Hmmm, not sure about that – I think he’s just heavily constipated.
James, that kind’a puts things in perspective!
Hunstundho they usually have polling booths in the camps. It would be unusal for the people working the roster wouldn’t have polling booths brought to them in the camps. Could be wrong though.
I agree with you Centre, i don’t care by how much Labor wins by, as long as there is a result,
I would rather it to be Landslide for the only reason being I dont think I have the nerves to sit up tonight if it is very close
Well – he’s bright red – so it could be one or the other….or both
WTF I think I just saw a Channel 7 add with that lying racist slag, Jackie Kelly? Is this right? Is she part of the broadcast?
memo to self: calm down…..calm down……calm down……its not all over yet……
aj – I asked him about that – no booths
@487 yeah thats for sure. I’m almost 23 now! If Rudd wins, it will be almost like a coming of age party.
Hmmm… I appear to have walked into a room that is leaning to the left…
My Bad!!!
Yep, and he [Baird] might also explode – some kind of twitching going on there.
HH, how marginal do you think he might be tho?
James @ 478
Try being in Year 3 when Howard was elected. Even then I remember feeling slightly bad when I headed into school on Monday to be asked by the teacher who the new PM was. I got it right, but I never thought I would be in my second year of uni and he would still be around.
Heres to him not being PM in my 3rd year of uni!
Leek, you will be assimilated.
Same here James I am 22 and all I have know is John Howard to be Prime Miniser,
For someone else to have the title Prime minister other than John Howard would just sound funny