D-day minus 2

• The Australian has published the latest cumulative Newspoll with state-by-state breakdowns. Most interesting of the state-level results is a correction following a mid-campaign Labor plunge in New South Wales.

• Marcus Priest of the Financial Review on the dispute over George Newhouse’s eligibility in Wentworth (UPDATE: A learned refutation of what follows from Grace Pettigrew in comments):

One option for Turnbull to avoid a new election would be to argue that rather than go back to the ballot box there should be – according to an ancient common law rule – a recount that excludes the disqualified candidate. The High Court has not been willing to do this in other successful challenges but left the door slightly open in the (Jackie) Kelly case, and it has occurred in England before. For this to occur it would require Turnbull to put Wentworth voters “on notice” before the poll that Newhouse was ineligible.

• Having raised genuine concerns about Newhouse, the Coalition broadened the attack to 12 other candidates who websites indicated were still on the public payroll (“based on investigative public records searches”, as Andrew Robb would have it): Sharon Thiel (Kalgoorlie), Mark Reynolds (Tangney), Tony Zappia (Makin), Belinda Neal (Robertson), Yvette D’Ath (Petrie), Ross Daniels (Ryan), Garry Parr (Hinkler) and Shayne Neumann (Blair), Rob Mitchell (McEwen), Alan Neilan (Kennedy), Mark Buttigieg (Cook) and Peter Conway (ACT Senate). Most seem to have had little trouble refuting the claims, Reynolds saying his piece in comments on this site.

• More and worse late-campaign desperation from Lindsay, where Labor operatives have photographed outgoing member Jackie Kelly’s husband Gary Clark and party state executive member Jeff Egan distributing a bogus pamphlet, purportedly from Muslim extremists praising Labor’s support for the “unjustly” treated Bali bombers.

• Meanwhile, Michael Bachelard of The Age reports being contacted by a “Liberal campaign source” spreading smears about Rodney Cocks, Labor’s candidate for the finely placed outer Melbourne seat of La Trobe.

• Michael McKenna of The Australian reports that the Liberals are so alarmed about their outer Brisbane seat of Forde, which outgoing member Kay Elson won by 13.0 per cent in 2004, they have “abandoned their candidate” and told the local to get behind Nationals candidate Hajnal Ban, who has “won traction with voters”. At the end of October, Tony Wright of The Age wrote that Liberal polling from the seat was “whispered to have sent a bolt of fear through the party”.

• A study of Australian voting patterns by the Australian National University’s Andrew Leigh and Oxford University’s Amy King finds that “female candidates in major parties tend to get 1.5% fewer votes than their male colleagues, all other things being equal”.

• Nick Xenophon’s seemingly effortless journey to the Senate has been rudely interrupted by Ann Bressington, the unanticipated victor of a second No Pokies seat at last year’s state election. According to John Wiseman of The Australian, Bressington claims Xenophon “guaranteed that her entry into politics would cost her nothing, only to tell her after she was elected he wanted $50,000”. She has also criticised him for abandoning state parliament just after he became eligible for the pension granted upon 10 years’ service.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,111 comments on “D-day minus 2”

Comments Page 21 of 23
1 20 21 22 23
  1. Afternoon all, and Glen too
    Thanks for the comments on the NPC address – as I’ve been saying for ages it sounds as if JWH needs a cup of tea and a good lie down.Permanently.
    Cannot believe the fantastic intervention by Jackie Kelly and her bunch of fools. After years of atheism I am starting to entertain the notion that perhaps there is after all, a God.

  2. Glen Says: “George it is assumed they are Australians yet many declare themselves muslims before Australians. ”

    How many “muslims” do you know Glen?

  3. I don’t disagree that they should be punished but for god’s sake don’t we have better things to question leaders of national parties than what some idiots did in Lindsay how about scrutiny of policy not this waste of time.

  4. [“George it is assumed they are Australians yet many declare themselves muslims before Australians. ”]

    Get real. Of course they are Australians, else they aren’t allowed to vote!

  5. [So how do exit polls work? Do they just stop and ask the punters “Who did you vote for?” How do they get any valid sampling?]

    They would have to record the sex/age etc of each person registering a ‘vote’ in the exit poll. Then they can adjust their sample to make sure it is representative. If they don’t know the age/sex of a vote then you obviously wouldn’t be able to construct a valid random sample. There might be some bias because some people refuse to participate, but that happens in normal polls too.

    If it is done properly (with proper regard to getting a random sample) then I would think a Sky exit poll could be very accurate.

  6. My take on Howard’s psyche is different to some here. I reckon he knows he’s gone, and a big part of him is now thinking: “In three days’ time none of this sh*t is going to be my problem any more”.
    I thought he looked quite relaxed today. Notwithstanding WorkChoices, he’s generally been a political realist during his career, so his relaxed demeanour probably means he has given up.

  7. Hey Glen, shocker of a speech by Howard ey? Shocker of a campaign by the Libs ey? Shocking ideology exposed for all to see ey? Bunch of racist fear-mongers ey?

  8. From Crikey Tips & Rumours.

    [With dodgy dossiers and falsified brochures dominating the closing days of the campaign, it’s a funny coincidence that one of the brains behind the Willis letters – allegedly – is a Victorian Liberal Party candidate for a winnable position in this election. Why doesn’t someone approach him for a comment?]

  9. [I don’t disagree that they should be punished but for god’s sake don’t we have better things to question leaders of national parties than what some idiots did in Lindsay how about scrutiny of policy not this waste of time.]

    And the Liberal candidate for Lindsay should be dis-endorsed.

    I honestly think it would be better for the Liberals if they disendorse the Lindsay candidate. It could save other voters in other seats.

  10. Glen, it depends on whether taxpayers funds were used to create the pamphlets. If they do, the member and party must take responsibility for it. Howard is the leader of the party.

    They’re all legitimate questions. My friend thinks they look like they were produced and printed on the standard machines provided to all MPs.

  11. Re 982,

    Glen Says:

    November 22nd, 2007 at 1:56 pm
    8 questions 8 bloody question on Lindsay how can Howard outline his agenda for a 5th term when he has to answer the same bloody questions over and over again. Did the media brutalise Rudd at his NPC address i think not f the media!

    The Liberals made their bed, now they have to lie in it. The buck stops with the boss and thus because some of his party members stuffed up, he had to take the heat today at the NPC. We’ve all wondered what you would have to say on this matter, now we know.

  12. If this was really out of character then maybe the press could ignore it.

    But Glen, it is not out of character. It is straight down the line. Classic LNP tactics, just poorly executed.

    “We will decide who comes to this NPC speech and the circumstances in which they come.”

    Unfortunately for Howard, he and his friends no longer consitute “we”.

  13. I was listening to NewsRadio on Tuesday night in the car and the guy who runs Galaxy was saying that they were polling Tuesday and Wednesday night and the results would be out today. Has anybody heard anything?

  14. “how about scrutiny of policy not this waste of time.”

    Well, I doubt the government even wants much scrutiny of their policies either. The lack of planning and the me-tooing with Labor on the big-ticket items is hardly the work of a government with the country’s future in mind.

  15. 1005 Glen, it’s just an earwax moment turned feral. Or a reverse pike Scores Nightclub. Or a Burkegate boot on the other foot. Who wants to discuss policy when a stuff-up is so much more eloquent?

  16. [The dumbest thing was Kelly’s husband using the flyers to hide his face. Dump the evidence you dingbat. :-P]

    Whoever the Liberal that tipped off the Labor campaign, I commend them.

    They obviously understand that the principle of democracy is more important than winning at all costs.

  17. Mr Speaker… I mean Glen, don’t blame the media, blame the party and more importantly those within the party that have made it the cesspool it has become. The sooner the Libs get rid of the Uglies, the sooner they will be back in power.

    BTW, from what I heard about the non-Lindsay questions, Howard just went on his anti-union, bad for the economy, not setting down his plans for the future.

  18. Howard crapped on about the independance of the wife fom the husband. Where was this enlightened view when Therese Rein was being wedged into selling part of her business.

  19. I listened to the NPC speech and Q & A until the Chairman called for the last question. I then turned the radio off. Did Ray Martin ask a further question and if so what was it and what was the response?

  20. 1013 SO,
    Howard should have disendorsed her today during his speech in my view. last chance to claw anything back for the Libs was lost, right there.

  21. [I was listening to NewsRadio on Tuesday night in the car and the guy who runs Galaxy was saying that they were polling Tuesday and Wednesday night and the results would be out today. Has anybody heard anything?]

    It will probably be in the News Ltd tabloids tomorrow. So it will leak tonight on Agenda / Lateline.

  22. ShowsOn from what JWH said today one of those involved who has apologised has said the Libs candidate was not informed of the pamphlet so why should she suffer for the actions of her husband ShowsOn. I thought we lived in a different Australia where men and women despite marriage are treated as individuals.

    It was funny that Howie said “Mr Speaker” during his speech though i had a chuckle about that but Kevin Rudd yesterday almost said plucked out of his ear by mistake so laughs all round.

  23. Didn’t Menzies want to leave Brisbane and above to the Japs.
    Didn’t Labour lead Australia with the help of the Dems in the USA, to victory in WW2, Pig iron of Melb ?

  24. I don’t disagree that they should be punished but for god’s sake don’t we have better things to question leaders of national parties than what some idiots did in Lindsay how about scrutiny of policy not this waste of time.

    Except it’s not a bunch of nobodies, it is senior members of the party…

    His party,

    His state,

    His faction

  25. Think you’ll find the Sky exit poll will be quite valid. What would be the point of running a dodgy poll late on Saturday? And when you find out which company is conducting the poll you may be somewhat surprised.

  26. [Howard should have disendorsed her today during his speech in my view. last chance to claw anything back for the Libs was lost, right there.]

    I completely agree. That would’ve killed the issue off, and saved votes in seats like North Sydney, Bennelong and Wentworth that HATE the idea of race being used in this way.

  27. ABC ON LINE.

    ‘JH settles with dying Banton

    Posted 4 minutes ago

    The former James Hardie building company has settled a second compensation claim brought by former worker Bernie Banton, who doctors say has only about a week to live.

    Mr Banton’s barrister Jack Rush QC has told the New South Wales Dust Diseases Tribunal that an agreement has been reached and the terms of the settlement are still being worked out.

    The tribunal is in its second day of hearing evidence in the case.

    Mr Banton, who is gravely ill in hospital, is being compensated for the asbestos-related form of stomach cancer, peritoneal mesothelioma.

    The trial heard earlier today that management at the higher levels of James Hardie were aware of the dangers of asbestos-related diseases in the 1960s, before Mr Banton had even begun working for the company.

    Mr Banton had already been compensated for the lung disease, asbestosis.

    Mr Banton’s wife, Karen, and former union boss Greg Combet are expected to comment this afternoon.’

    (JH?)

  28. Re 1026,

    Frank Calabrese Says:

    November 22nd, 2007 at 2:06 pm
    [The Liberals made their bed, now they have to lie in it. ]

    And Cue The Easybeats.

    http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=2n0oXka4uaY

    Good one 🙂 … if someone is compiling the songs suggested all week (I said Queen’s We are the Champions earlier this week) you can add this one to the list 🙂 🙂

  29. [ShowsOn from what JWH said today one of those involved who has apologised has said the Libs candidate was not informed of the pamphlet so why should she suffer for the actions of her husband ShowsOn.]

    Because this issue is leaking the Liberal party votes. If Howard wants to win this election he needs to sacrifice Lindsay for the sake of winning other seats.

  30. Kevin Rudd in an interview with Spears at 4:15pm. I do NOT know if it will be live at that time or if it was taped earlier today. And if taped was it done before or after the news about Lindsay hit the fan. Don’t forget to watch 🙂 🙂

  31. [Menzies also dumped shit on Churchill in the thirties over Churchills warnnigs about Hitler…]

    And Menzies let the British dump nuclear shit in outback South Australia.

  32. ShowsOn from what JWH said today one of those involved who has apologised has said the Libs candidate was not informed of the pamphlet so why should she suffer for the actions of her husband ShowsOn.

    Yet Rudd gets shit every time one of Therese Rein’s companies, subsidiaries new acquisitions has, in the past, messed up payments.

  33. 1036 SO,
    Exactly, would have been the Hanson expulsion all over again in my view, with Howard looking (to many people) like a reasonable guy who’d dealt firmly with the idiots in his own party.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 21 of 23
1 20 21 22 23