• The Australian has published the latest cumulative Newspoll with state-by-state breakdowns. Most interesting of the state-level results is a correction following a mid-campaign Labor plunge in New South Wales.
• Marcus Priest of the Financial Review on the dispute over George Newhouse’s eligibility in Wentworth (UPDATE: A learned refutation of what follows from Grace Pettigrew in comments):
One option for Turnbull to avoid a new election would be to argue that rather than go back to the ballot box there should be – according to an ancient common law rule – a recount that excludes the disqualified candidate. The High Court has not been willing to do this in other successful challenges but left the door slightly open in the (Jackie) Kelly case, and it has occurred in England before. For this to occur it would require Turnbull to put Wentworth voters “on notice” before the poll that Newhouse was ineligible.
• Having raised genuine concerns about Newhouse, the Coalition broadened the attack to 12 other candidates who websites indicated were still on the public payroll (“based on investigative public records searches”, as Andrew Robb would have it): Sharon Thiel (Kalgoorlie), Mark Reynolds (Tangney), Tony Zappia (Makin), Belinda Neal (Robertson), Yvette D’Ath (Petrie), Ross Daniels (Ryan), Garry Parr (Hinkler) and Shayne Neumann (Blair), Rob Mitchell (McEwen), Alan Neilan (Kennedy), Mark Buttigieg (Cook) and Peter Conway (ACT Senate). Most seem to have had little trouble refuting the claims, Reynolds saying his piece in comments on this site.
• More and worse late-campaign desperation from Lindsay, where Labor operatives have photographed outgoing member Jackie Kelly’s husband Gary Clark and party state executive member Jeff Egan distributing a bogus pamphlet, purportedly from Muslim extremists praising Labor’s support for the “unjustly” treated Bali bombers.
• Meanwhile, Michael Bachelard of The Age reports being contacted by a “Liberal campaign source” spreading smears about Rodney Cocks, Labor’s candidate for the finely placed outer Melbourne seat of La Trobe.
• Michael McKenna of The Australian reports that the Liberals are so alarmed about their outer Brisbane seat of Forde, which outgoing member Kay Elson won by 13.0 per cent in 2004, they have “abandoned their candidate” and told the local to get behind Nationals candidate Hajnal Ban, who has “won traction with voters”. At the end of October, Tony Wright of The Age wrote that Liberal polling from the seat was “whispered to have sent a bolt of fear through the party”.
• A study of Australian voting patterns by the Australian National University’s Andrew Leigh and Oxford University’s Amy King finds that “female candidates in major parties tend to get 1.5% fewer votes than their male colleagues, all other things being equal”.
• Nick Xenophon’s seemingly effortless journey to the Senate has been rudely interrupted by Ann Bressington, the unanticipated victor of a second No Pokies seat at last year’s state election. According to John Wiseman of The Australian, Bressington claims Xenophon “guaranteed that her entry into politics would cost her nothing, only to tell her after she was elected he wanted $50,000”. She has also criticised him for abandoning state parliament just after he became eligible for the pension granted upon 10 years’ service.
Tekel, to put it simply… no.
Darn 920 , Lefty – Yes , we could believe its a Lib plot but surely even they can’t be soooo stupid as too have Kelly’s husband involved.
Lol I just walked down the main street in Penrith, there’s the media scrum around Bradbury and a massive Chijoff mobile sign drives past and stops right out front.
What a bloody waste of time that was, my God he’s bad news.
Sky News are going to be doing an exit poll on election day.
I believe Channel 9 are doing some as well.
if you guys cant see that that NPC address will set Howard up for a big result on Saturday you are kidding yourselves.
As to it being a big WINNING result- I think not
Nath, I agree. Howard did do alright today. He seemed relaxed. Sure he did his usual legalese with one hundred possible future exit points on most of his responses to questions, but he wasn’t especially flustered.
Either he really thinks he will win or he is has accepted a likely defeat and just wanted to enjoy his last NPC address.
Nath @ 947
Yes, Howard did well at the NPC. But it’s the proverbial lipstick on a pig.
Well, there will be around 30 libs exiting so they can poll them
votekaren@karenchijoff.com
😉
947 [I thought Howard did very well today. alot better than during the rest of the campaign. he even cracked a few good jokes.]
Had a laugh myself when he said the country was headed in the right direction – sounded like Roy Morgan phoned just as he went to air.
Thinking he can still win was a joke too I assume.
I wouldn’t trust any exit poll from Sky News, you know it’ll be favouring one side.
Anyone who thinks the Libs tipped off Labor about the pamphlets on purpose to try and create a wedge are kidding themselves. There is only one way this will be portrayed to a swinging voter. Badly.
Not really HH, Sky’s exit polls predicted Labor would win the NSW state election.
Still think this is closer than most are expecting… but glad to be proved wrong in 2 days time.
Tekel Upharsin 943
Poss and others are far more expert, but briefly the major polling companies (particularly Newspoll and AC Nielsen IMO) are quite scientific and carefully construct their sampling methodology to avoid bias. The degree of accuracy is greatly affected by sample size, which in turn depends on how much money whoever wants the poll is willing to pay. The companies have plenty of resources though; that is rarely the issue.
Seats swing differently, but there are some very good articles up at Possum Politics and Adam’s website which clearly show the claim the marginals were swinging less was nonsense. Most polling results have been very clear on an overall 54/46 2PP vote, with a swing of around 6.5%.
Haha. SkyNews exit polls. I bet they’ll be reliable.
[I wouldn’t trust any exit poll from Sky News, you know it’ll be favouring one side.]
I don’t think exit polls would be very accurate in Australia. Many people seem to be secretive of how they vote.
Plus they can just be unreliable due to weighting issues. Early exit polls in the 2004 U.S. elections suggested Kerry was going to win, but that didn’t happen.
Will I?
LTEP: Howard would need to pick up 2 or 3 seats in WA for a start, but based on today’s Newspoll figure of a 50:50 split in that state, which represents a 5% swing to Labor since 2004, that doesn’t seem likely. But, who knows, stranger things have happened!
Be 1000.
LTEP – I think you owe it to all of us to come on this site on Sunday and tell us you always thought Labor would win!
Howard was fine today. Obviously some of the stuff was blatantly self-serving, but he’s a politician.
Think some of you need to take a chill pill of your own if you think that was a “cranky” performance.
It was gold watch time. The focus was on him for the last time. And he just decided to enjoy it.
Doubt if too many of us will have that level of mental acuity when we’re his age.
964 [but glad to be proved wrong in 2 days time.]
It will be a pleasure to see you proved wrong but I have no doubt the day after the poll you will be here to tell us that Gridlock Campbell will win the Brisbane City Council election in March,won’t you?
So how do exit polls work? Do they just stop and ask the punters “Who did you vote for?” How do they get any valid sampling?
I need another poll hit.
They just need to keep replaying that Laurie Oakes rip on Kelly – classic.
[LTEP: Howard would need to pick up 2 or 3 seats in WA for a start, but based on today’s Newspoll figure of a 50:50 split in that state, which represents a 5% swing to Labor since 2004, that doesn’t seem likely. But, who knows, stranger things have happened!]
A lot of Muslims live in Stirling so I think Keenan is gone.
That’s odd.
[So how do exit polls work? Do they just stop and ask the punters “Who did you vote for?” How do they get any valid sampling?]
I guess they can look at the results at that particular booth from last year, so they will have an expected result, and then compare it to the actual result they get.
The problem is some people won’t want to say. Others will flat out lie, and others may of already forgotten! 😛
The Liberals might be desperate to get Campbell Newman into a federal seat, especially if a few byelections come up in the middle of 2008. You really think Costello, Downer and Abbott would stick around in a decimated Liberal opposition?
8 questions 8 bloody question on Lindsay how can Howard outline his agenda for a 5th term when he has to answer the same bloody questions over and over again. Did the media brutalise Rudd at his NPC address i think not f the media!
Darn@920 – good point mate. This stunt is somewhat double-edged. I’ll take solace in the fact it looks shabby, eg, Kelly shielding behind offending leaflet already looking like a defendent arriving at/leaving court. Hopefully the undecided see it the same way.
Glen, back already from the National Press Club?
Frank Calabrese how many Muslims voted for the Liberals in 2004 in Stirling?
Keenan is safe mate!
surprisingly milne asked the best question! when milne talked about people in the lib party having a tradition of ‘mining racism’, the look on howard’s face was a ripper.
HH
In your response to post 984…
SERENITY NOWWWW! (with arms waving in the air)
Glen Says: “Frank Calabrese how many Muslims voted for the Liberals in 2004 in Stirling?”
Glen, they’re called A-U-S-T-R-A-L-I-A-N-S
[8 questions 8 bloody question on Lindsay how can Howard outline his agenda for a 5th term when he has to answer the same bloody questions over and over again. Did the media brutalise Rudd at his NPC address i think not f the media!]
Rudd’s campaign workers didn’t use racial hatred to try and drum up votes.
Admit it Glen, the Liberal campaign workers have completely let themselves down over this, and deserve to be punished.
Fortunately there’s an election on Saturday where people can help them out.
982 Why would howard need an agenda he’s finishing Saturday night?
Didn’t Keating give us Hilaly?
didnt menzies give us ivan milat?
Glen,
After Kellygate – NONE.
And that include asian Muslims who may have traditionally voted liberal, will change because of this.
Had senior members of the ALP Queensland Right just been busted red handed distributing criminal, racist, disgusting filth? I think not.
AEC recommends racist leaflet to the AFP:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22802658-5013945,00.html
“8 questions 8 bloody question on Lindsay how can Howard outline his agenda for a 5th term when he has to answer the same bloody questions over and over again. Did the media brutalise Rudd at his NPC address i think not f the media!”
Glen, if the Liberals weren’t indulging in such cheap and nasty tricks, then they wouldn’t have these distractions to worry about. It is the fault of the Liberal Party, not the media. Do you expect them just to ignore the pamphlets issue – it is big news. It goes to the heart of everything that is wrong with today’s Liberal Party.
Via Landeryou,
AND People say that politicians are sensitive…..
http://andrewlanderyou.blogspot.com/2007/11/blow-by-blow-lefty-bloggers-tackle.html
George it is assumed they are Australians yet many declare themselves muslims before Australians. But seriously how many Muslim Australians in Stirling voted for Michael Keenan and he still won.
Wasn’t Grasby beholden to the Mafia?
John of Melbourne Says: “Didn’t Keating give us Hilaly?”
Apparently John, Hilaly is also responsible for the problems in Iraq, our skills shortage, AND the interest rate rises!