Newspoll: 54-46

Sky News reveals tomorrow’s Newspoll will show Labor leading 54-46; primary vote Labor 46 per cent (down two points), Coalition 41 per cent (up one). Details to follow.

UPDATE: Preliminary article at The Australian.

UPDATE 2: The Australian’s graphic here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

697 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46”

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  1. Glen,

    I grant you that the Coalition have a chance of winning this election – a 25% chance, given the current state of the betting markets (expect that to change as they process the results of this poll).

  4. No, Glen is simply saying the Liberals can crawl back a few more points they can sneak home this may well be true but extremely unlikely

  6. Jackman 54% and Possums 55% both half right – the result is going to be close to 54.5% which is about what it is now but, with a bullet I would imagine given the latest problems for Howard.

    Seats
    ALP 91
    LNP 57

  12. Toby: after watching 7.30 Report tonight, I’ve got to say I’m impressed with Nicole Cornes, in comparison to that wanker Southcott! Go Nicole!
    Mia Handsin looks like a potential good MP too.

  13. No 153

    I expect Newspoll to be 52-48 on election day, which can still mean a Coalition victory.

    People must remember that the popular vote can still be lost, even though the election is won. Must we resurrect 1998?

  15. Chris @ 130. You’re a genius – many thanks. (I didn’t even know about this Sky site, so now I can set it up on the other laptop and switch between ABC and the Great Satan throughout the Oz night/our morning.)

    And I shall look out for Denise’s glorious barnet with great interest and just a little spite.

  20. Grooski,

    If this poll was in complete isolation I’d agree with your range. However its the lastest in a very long line of polls that have all put the ALP TPP north of 53.

    Also there is the quailitative aspect – compared to Lathem, Rudd has a solid campain whilst the Libs have been cashed-up but all over the place (I loved the comment today on the Libs campain – “if they had a duck in would drown”)

    All up I think we can be a little more confident the ALP will weight in on Staturday in the 53 to 55 zone.

    Having said that, its still going to be a looong week.

  23. There’s definitely a sense of desparation from the Liberals here in Sturt , so the internal polling of 50/50 wouldn’t be a surprise.

    The last couple of weeks I’ve been getting something in the post from them nearly every second day, often a personally addessed letter.

    Speaking with women who received the personally addressed letter from The Minister for Ageing’s wife, it has definitely gone down like a lead balloon.

  24. Michael: the advertising blackout begins on Wednesday night, but only for TV, the internet ads can keep running right up to Saturday.

    Care for some new betting odds?

    PAGE
    ALP 1.60
    NATIONALS 2.20

  25. “I never said we were a lock to win this election based on being 8 points behind, all i am saying is that it is possible for the tories to win, it mightn’t be likely but it is possible.”

    Glen, you are right. It is possible. There are still 5 days to go. Who knows what will happen?

    But the chances have now become VERY low.

    Your side has performed very badly this election. Their campaign has been an awful mess. I am actually surprised that the Labor vote hasn’t increased markedly because of it, but I guess it means that large numbers of voters have pretty much tuned out. That is good and bad for your side. Bad, because it makes it even harder for Howard’s scare campaign to cut through, which means he will have to scream even louder. And good, because it might mean that the Coalition vote won’t completely collapse.

  26. Too many people focus on individual polls. Look at the polls since the election was called in mid October. Labor has gone down slightly in primary vote, 2PP and preferred PM polling but they’re still polling really well. I think we’re all just afraid Labor will get thrashed in the final dash (ie the last 24-48 hours). We have been spoiled this year with some bloody good polls haven’t we?

    Problem is the public like to flirt with Labor but not marry them.

  27. A TPP lead of 52/48 for Labor on election day that translates into a Coalition win would be a statistical freak. The swings would have to be precisely matched to the current margins in lots of Lib seats in order to pull it off. After all, that would be a 4.7% swing to Labor on TPP…

  28. don’t get me wrong, I hope labor get enough seats to get over the line in 5 days. but when people say it’ll be tight there is merit IMO. When you look at all the electorates and their margins, the libs sit on a lot of fat margins 10% + esp in Qld. so even if there are big swings against them in these seats they still may not fall this time round. even though the wheels have fallen off team rodent long ago, talk of annihilation at this point is premature, the real annihilation will come after 3 years of rudd relatively unscathed, and 3 years of libs shit fighting between themselves in opposition.

    anyone know whos on LL tonight?

  29. Big Blind Dave
    I’m aware of that, just going by what my mail is. Why would Howard pick Kingston, of all of the marginals, to plonk a child hospital if there wasn’t a chance of them winning it? I’m not saying I think they will win it, but it’s interesting.

  30. Yeah OK GP, lets talk about how the ALP got 51% of the vote and picked up 18 seats.

    We could also talk about 1990 where the ALP got 49.8% of the vote and won with a healthy majority.

  32. For goodness sakes, if I see one more “53% means labor WILL win 82 seats” rubbish I start waxing my own arse.

    Name me, and provide evidence for, the 22 seats that Labor WILL win. If you cannot, it is conjecture and can be officially labelled biased opinion. I myself, can label 12 as falling, with possibility of 24 more being in play.

    This site has been about Psephology – the study of statistics applied to polls, not political rhetoric bandied about by fan-boys.

  34. If anyone is intersted, the details of last week’s neilson are (finally) up on thier website.

    I’m with my brothers who spoke up earlier, next week, I’ll get my life back in order and stop watching this site

  37. Those so called commentators on Skynews are clown. If the poll is reversed 54 Libs 46 Labor, they would have buried Labor 10ft deep. They just cannot bring themselves to face reality. They are just clinging to their own deception.

  38. LL reporter is staing that many Chinese people in Bennelong are mainland born, rather than from Hong Kong and therefore a different demographic. Also of note is the Indian pop, who don’t like the treatment of Mohammed Haneef. Yet another point, older Chinese are keen on economic stability, supposedly provided by Howard.

  39. Oh sweet. You have to be delighted with that if you are on the side of goodness and light (which for the record is whatever side I’m on at the time).

    Fantastic that the evil that will be workchoices MKII ++ has been highlighted today, even better that it hasn’t been released by the stupid government because speculation about how evil the Govt is, is much much better than debate about whether x idea would increase productivity or reduce inflation.

    The Govt is in a lose lose now can’t release the details but the Labor Party claim that they WANT to do much worse has been confirmed and the question is if they are given the power will they or not … what would be your bet? Also confirms the Labor Party claims this is fabulous.

    *Does a happy happy dance*

    For the record I liking possums landslide much more than many posters here who have weak tepid just fall over the line predictions … possums are much more sound.

    Finally journalists are a pathetic joke, they have given Howard an outrageously easy time over 11 years – sorry MarkTwain but really the MSM would be too scared to say today is Monday if the PM lied and said it was Tuesday. And if Labor said today was Monday the clowns would run Howard’s denial and claim it is Tuesday at the top of the news, give him 30 seconds saying how stupid labor is and how clear it is to everyone it is Tuesday, because he says so and the push Rudd’s claim it was Monday to a laugh at the bottom of the sorry.

  41. WENTWORTH

    TURNBALL 1.60
    NEWHOUSE 2.20

    Looks like George has been the big mover today, presumably on the back of that poll in the Fairfax papers.

  43. Big Blind Dave Says: “are you proud of your party winning with 49% Glen?”

    Come on BBD, that’s known as D-I-M-O-W-C-R-A-S-I for the Liberals, don’tcha know?

  46. Also, GP, the 1998 2PP for the ALP was probably overstated because of Pauline Hansons rather strange way of allocating preferences (away from sitting members). In 1998 the ALP also only got 40% of the primary and I haven’t seen a poll in the last 12 months suggesting Labor will get anything less than about 45%.

  48. Enormous swing of almost 7%, says Antony. “Certainly looks like people have made up their minds, to change govt. Very consistent poll.”

  50. [Glen: “Rudd needs at least 53-47 to win, if it goes below that figure it’s a toss up.”]

    Get off it Glen, if all the lib bogey man fear/smear saturation has delivered you zilch since the 54/46 of the 2nd week what on earth is going to produce an ALP free-fall in the next 5 days?

    It’s over and you know it else you wouldn’t be crying about how poorly the media has treated you. They haven’t but you feel that way because it’s all going south on you. The danger for your team is that they’re having the same disconsolate feelings and will similarly lash out and implode

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