McNair: 50-50 in North Sydney

Laurie Oakes reports on the Channel Nine News that a McNair opinion poll has Joe Hockey and Labor’s Mike Bailey locked on 50-50 in North Sydney.

UPDATE: Sky News reveals the sample was 400.

UPDATE 2: Unsourced talk of primary vote figures of 44 per cent for Hockey and 41 per cent for Bailey.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

260 comments on “McNair: 50-50 in North Sydney”

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  1. If Labor are getting 53 or 54 in most coalition marginals, that means they are probably on 55 or 56 in their own safe seats and marginals

    So I think Newspoll will be 55/45.

  2. Oh thats great news – no changes to work choices is something thats “set in stone” according to JWH. Would that be sandstone John?

  3. Bushfire Bill and Snapper. You’ll be pleased to know that my cat actually chundered up a huge furball at the very moment Howard and Costello were on telly together. I had to escort her outside and mop the kitchen floor.

    I don’t know which way my cat votes, but given that we’re in the seat of Batman, she probably votes for Catwoman. She wouldn’t vote Green, as she likes to attack wildlife. Perhaps she’d support the local Labor member, Martin Ferguson, because she likes to see a feral gumment.

  4. i’m still on libs by 5 and three more very long even darker years.
    howard once said (i can’t remember where) when he first got elected that he would make changes which would take 50 years of labor government to turn back.
    his work of giving the greedy people of this sad little country what they deserve is not complete.
    i think the marginal polling is very bad.
    it’s that gap between the first dozen and the rest.
    labor is not exploiting the bad news enough. they are coasting. they need to go in for the kill. they have sufficient material with the regional pork barrel and now the workchoices foi revelation, but they are scared to look too negative.
    it will cost them the election.

  5. #47 Where was Bill Shorten? Ballarat is just up the road from Maribyrnong (more or less). Apparently the miners talked about “sex” while they were trapped underground.

    You would have thought they’d be discussing AWAs, and what to do when the mining boom ends.

  6. Wally @ 121 Sorry don’t have any goss’ on Hughes except to say that Dana Vale is an intellectual peanut and come back Bobby Tickner.

  7. I just put a few dollars on Mike Bailey at iasbet.com (Mark Reeds Site) and they’re still offering 6.50. If this polls anywhere near right, the bargain of the year!!

  8. maybe they just have someone monitoring this site and are waiting for the desperation to reach a peak before releasing the number?

  9. Not being a ky watcher – do they normally run with good news for the govt up front?

    What did they do last time when they had the 53-47?

  10. If you want anymore evidence that Labor are going to win this election, this opinion poll would be the one you would cite. Hockey will probably win, but the simple fact that pollsters need to bother sampling this electorate, and its even remotely close means labor might win 2/3 of the seats it needs in NSW alone. After all there are 12 more marginal seats in NSW than North Sydney.

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